Publications

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Xie, SP, Saiki N.  1999.  Abrupt onset and slow seasonal evolution of summer monsoon in an idealized GCM simulation. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. 77:949-968. Abstract
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Xie, SP, Nonaka M, Tanimoto Y, Tokinaga H, Xu HM, Kessler WS, Small RJ, Liu WT, Hafner J.  2004.  A fine view from space. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 85:1060-1062. Abstract
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Xie, SP, Kubokawa A, Hanawa K.  1993.  EVAPORATION WIND FEEDBACK AND THE ORGANIZING OF TROPICAL CONVECTION ON THE PLANETARY SCALE .1. QUASI-LINEAR INSTABILITY. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 50:3873-3883. Abstract
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Xie, SP, Hu KM, Hafner J, Tokinaga H, Du Y, Huang G, Sampe T.  2009.  Indian Ocean Capacitor Effect on Indo-Western Pacific Climate during the Summer following El Nino. Journal of Climate. 22:730-747.   10.1175/2008jcli2544.1   Abstract
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Xie, SP, Kunitani T, Kubokawa A, Nonaka M, Hosoda S.  2000.  Interdecadal thermocline variability in the North Pacific for 1958-97: A GCM simulation. Journal of Physical Oceanography. 30:2798-2813. Abstract
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Xie, SP, Deser C, Vecchi GA, Collins M, Delworth TL, Hall A, Hawkins E, Johnson NC, Cassou C, Giannini A, Watanabe M.  2015.  Towards predictive understanding of regional climate change. Nature Climate Change. 5:921-930.   10.1038/nclimate2689   AbstractWebsite

Regional information on climate change is urgently needed but often deemed unreliable. To achieve credible regional climate projections, it is essential to understand underlying physical processes, reduce model biases and evaluate their impact on projections, and adequately account for internal variability. In the tropics, where atmospheric internal variability is small compared with the forced change, advancing our understanding of the coupling between long-term changes in upper-ocean temperature and the atmospheric circulation will help most to narrow the uncertainty. In the extratropics, relatively large internal variability introduces substantial uncertainty, while exacerbating risks associated with extreme events. Large ensemble simulations are essential to estimate the probabilistic distribution of climate change on regional scales. Regional models inherit atmospheric circulation uncertainty from global models and do not automatically solve the problem of regional climate change. We conclude that the current priority is to understand and reduce uncertainties on scales greater than 100 km to aid assessments at finer scales.

Xie, SP.  1994.  ON PREFERRED ZONAL SCALE OF WAVE-CISK WITH CONDITIONAL HEATING. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. 72:19-30. Abstract
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Xie, SP, Ishiwatari M, Hashizume H, Takeuchi K.  1998.  Coupled ocean-atmospheric waves on the equatorial front. Geophysical Research Letters. 25:3863-3866. Abstract
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Xie, SP, Annamalai H, Schott FA, McCreary JP.  2002.  Structure and mechanisms of South Indian Ocean climate variability. Journal of Climate. 15:864-878. Abstract
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Xie, SP, Lu B, Xiang BQ.  2013.  Similar spatial patterns of climate responses to aerosol and greenhouse gas changes. Nature Geoscience. 6:828-832.   10.1038/ngeo1931   AbstractWebsite

Spatial variations in ocean warming have been linked to regional changes in tropical cyclones(1), precipitation(2,3) and monsoons(4). But development of reliable regional climate projections for climate change mitigation and adaptation remains challenging(5). The presence of anthropogenic aerosols, which are highly variable in space and time, is thought to induce spatial patterns of climate response that are distinct from those of well-mixed greenhouse gases(4,6-9) Using CMIP5 climate simulations that consider aerosols and greenhouse gases separately, we show that regional responses to changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols are similar over the ocean, as reflected in similar spatial patterns of ocean temperature and precipitation. This similarity suggests that the climate response to radiative changes is relatively insensitive to the spatial distribution of these changes. Although anthropogenic aerosols are largely confined to the Northern Hemisphere, simulations that include aerosol forcing predict decreases in temperature and westerly wind speed that reach the pristine Southern Hemisphere oceans. Over land, the climate response to aerosol forcing is more localized, but larger scale spatial patterns are also evident. We suggest that the climate responses induced by greenhouse gases and aerosols share key ocean-atmosphere feedbacks, leading to a qualitative resemblance in spatial distribution.

Xie, Q, Wu XY, Yuan WY, Wang DX, Xie SP.  2007.  Life cycle of intraseasonal oscillation of summer SST in the western South China Sea. ACTA OCEANOLOGICA SINICA. 26:1-8. Abstract
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Xie, SP.  1995.  INTERACTION BETWEEN THE ANNUAL AND INTERANNUAL VARIATIONS IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. Journal of Physical Oceanography. 25:1930-1941. Abstract
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Xie, S-P, Kubokawa A, Kobashi F, Mitsudera H.  2012.  New developments in mode-water research: an introduction. Journal of Oceanography. 68:1-3.   10.1007/s10872-011-0090-8   Abstract
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Xie, SP, Noguchi H, Matsumura S.  1999.  A hemispheric-scale quasi-decadal oscillation and its signature in Northern Japan. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. 77:573-582. Abstract
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Xie, SP, Zhou ZQ.  2017.  Seasonal modulations of El Nino-related atmospheric variability: Indo-Western Pacific Ocean feedback. Journal of Climate. 30:3461-3472.   10.1175/jcli-d-16-0713.1   AbstractWebsite

The spatial structure of atmospheric anomalies associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation varies with season because of the seasonal variations in sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly pattern and in the climatological basic state. The latter effect is demonstrated using an atmospheric model forced with a time-invariant pattern of El Nino warming over the equatorial Pacific. The seasonal modulation is most pronounced over the north Indian Ocean to northwest Pacific where the monsoonal winds vary from northeasterly in winter to southwesterly in summer. Specifically, the constant El Nino run captures the abrupt transition from a summer cyclonic to winter anticyclonic anomalous circulation over the northwest Pacific, in support of the combination mode idea that emphasizes nonlinear interactions of equatorial Pacific SST forcing and the climatological seasonal cycle. In post-El Nino summers when equatorial Pacific warming has dissipated, SST anomalies over the Indo-northwest Pacific Oceans dominate and anchor the coherent persisting anomalous anticyclonic circulation. A conceptual model is presented that incorporates the combination mode in the existing framework of regional Indo-western Pacific Ocean coupling.

Xie, SP.  2004.  Satellite observations of cool ocean-atmosphere interaction. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 85:195-+.   10.1175/bams-85-2-195   Abstract
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Xie, SP, Kubokawa A.  1990.  ON THE WAVE-CISK IN THE PRESENCE OF A FRICTIONAL BOUNDARY-LAYER. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. 68:651-657. Abstract
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Xie, SP.  1997.  Stability of equatorially symmetric and asymmetric climates under annual solar forcing. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. 123:1359-1375. Abstract
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Xie, SP.  2000.  Japanese team measures tropical instability effects. Physics Today. 53:11-11. Abstract
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Xie, SP, Kosaka Y, Okumura YM.  2016.  Distinct energy budgets for anthropogenic and natural changes during global warming hiatus. Nature Geoscience. 9:29-+.   10.1038/ngeo2581   AbstractWebsite

The Earth's energy budget for the past four decades can now be closed(1), and it supports anthropogenic greenhouse forcing as the cause for climate warming. However, closure depends on invoking an unrealistically large increase in aerosol cooling(2) during the so-called global warming hiatus since the late 1990s (refs 3,4) that was due partly to tropical Pacific Ocean cooling(5-7). The difficulty with this closure lies in the assumption that the same climate feedback applies to both anthropogenic warming and natural cooling. Here we analyse climate model simulations with and without anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gas concentrations, and show that top-of-the-atmosphere radiation and global mean surface temperature are much less tightly coupled for natural decadal variability than for the greenhouse-gas-induced response, implying distinct climate feedback between anthropogenic warming and natural variability. In addition, we identify a phase difference between top-of-the-atmosphere radiation and global mean surface temperature such that ocean heat uptake tends to slow down during the surface warming hiatus. This result deviates from existing energy theory but we find that it is broadly consistent with observations. Our study highlights the importance of developing metrics that distinguish anthropogenic change from natural variations to attribute climate variability and to estimate climate sensitivity from observations.

Xie, SP, Xu HM, Kessler WS, Nonaka M.  2005.  Air-sea interaction over the eastern Pacific warm pool: Gap winds, thermocline dome, and atmospheric convection. Journal of Climate. 18:5-20. Abstract
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Xie, S-P, Du Y, Huang G, Zheng X-T, Tokinaga H, Hu K, Liu Q.  2010.  Decadal Shift in El Nino Influences on Indo-Western Pacific and East Asian Climate in the 1970s. Journal of Climate. 23:3352-3368.   10.1175/2010jcli3429.1   Abstract
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