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Wang, CY, Xie SP, Kosaka Y, Liu QY, Zheng XT.  2017.  Global influence of tropical Pacific variability with implications for global warming slowdown. Journal of Climate. 30:2679-2695.   10.1175/jcli-d-15-0496.1   AbstractWebsite

The impact of internal tropical Pacific variability on global mean surface temperature (GMST) is quantified using a multimodel ensemble. A tropical Pacific index (TPI) is defined to track tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability. The simulated GMST is highly correlated with TPI on the interannual time scale but this correlation weakens on the decadal time scale. The time-scale dependency is such that the GMST regression equation derived from the observations, which are dominated by interannual variability, would underestimate the magnitude of decadal GMST response to tropical Pacific variability. The surface air temperature response to tropical Pacific variability is strong in the tropics but weakens in the extratropics. The regression coefficient of GMST against TPI shows considerable intermodel variations, primarily because of differences in high latitudes. The results have important implications for the planned intercomparison of pacemaker experiments that force Pacific variability to follow the observed evolution. The model dependency of the GMST regression suggests that in pacemaker experiments-model performance in simulating the recent "slowdown'' in global warming-will vary substantially among models. It also highlights the need to develop observational constraints and to quantify the TPI effect on the decadal variability of GMST. Compared to GMST, the correlation between global mean tropospheric temperature and TPI is high on both interannual and decadal time scales because of a common structure in the tropical tropospheric temperature response that is upward amplified and meridionally broad.

Wang, GH, Xie SP, Huang RX, Chen CL.  2015.  Robust warming pattern of global subtropical oceans and its mechanism. Journal of Climate. 28:8574-8584.   10.1175/jcli-d-14-00809.1   AbstractWebsite

The subsurface ocean response to anthropogenic climate forcing remains poorly characterized. From the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), a robust response of the lower thermocline is identified, where the warming is considerably weaker in the subtropics than in the tropics and high latitudes. The lower thermocline change is inversely proportional to the thermocline depth in the present climatology. Ocean general circulation model (OGCM) experiments show that sea surface warming is the dominant forcing for the subtropical gyre change in contrast to natural variability for which wind dominates, and the ocean response is insensitive to the spatial pattern of surface warming. An analysis based on a ventilated thermocline model shows that the pattern of the lower thermocline change can be interpreted in terms of the dynamic response to the strengthened stratification and downward heat mixing. Consequently, the subtropical gyres become intensified at the surface but weakened in the lower thermcline, consistent with results from CMIP experiments.

Wang, D, Zhuang W, Xie S-P, Hu J, Shu Y, Wu R.  2012.  Coastal upwelling in summer 2000 in the northeastern South China Sea. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans. 117   10.1029/2011jc007465   Abstract
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Wang, CY, Xie SP, Kosaka Y.  2018.  Indo-Western Pacific Climate Variability: ENSO Forcing and Internal Dynamics in a Tropical Pacific Pacemaker Simulation. Journal of Climate. 31:10123-10139.   10.1175/jcli-d-18-0203.1   AbstractWebsite

El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) peaks in boreal winter but its impact on Indo-western Pacific climate persists for another two seasons. Key ocean-atmosphere interaction processes for the ENSO effect are investigated using the Pacific Ocean-Global Atmosphere (POGA) experiment with a coupled general circulation model, where tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are restored to follow observations while the atmosphere and oceans are fully coupled elsewhere. The POGA shows skills in simulating the ENSO-forced warming of the tropical Indian Ocean and an anomalous anticyclonic circulation pattern over the northwestern tropical Pacific in the post-El Nino spring and summer. The 10-member POGA ensemble allows decomposing Indo-western Pacific variability into the ENSO forced and ENSO-unrelated (internal) components. Internal variability is comparable to the ENSO forcing in magnitude and independent of ENSO amplitude and phase. Random internal variability causes apparent decadal modulations of ENSO correlations over the Indo-western Pacific, which are high during epochs of high ENSO variance. This is broadly consistent with instrumental observations over the past 130 years as documented in recent studies. Internal variability features a sea level pressure pattern that extends into the north Indian Ocean and is associated with coherent SST anomalies from the Arabian Sea to the western Pacific, suggestive of ocean-atmosphere coupling.

Wang, H, Xie SP, Tokinaga H, Liu Q, Kosaka Y.  2016.  Detecting cross-equatorial wind change as a fingerprint of climate response to anthropogenic aerosol forcing. Geophysical Research Letters. 43:3444-3450.   10.1002/2016gl068521   AbstractWebsite

Anthropogenic aerosols are amajor driver of the twetieth century climate change. In climate models, the aerosol forcing, larger in the Northern than Southern Hemispheres, induces an interhemispheric Hadley circulation. In support of the model result, we detected a robust change in the zonal mean cross-equatorial wind over the past 60 years from ship observations and reanalyses, accompanied by physically consistent changes in atmospheric pressure and marine cloud cover. Single-forcing experiments indicate that the observed change in cross-equatorial wind is a fingerprint of aerosol forcing. This zonal mean mode follows the evolution of global aerosol forcing that is distinct from regional changes in the Atlantic sector. Atmospheric simulations successfully reproduce this interhemispheric mode, indicating the importance of sea surface temperature mediation in response to anthropogenic aerosol forcing. As societies awaken to reduce aerosol emissions, a phase reversal of this interhemispheric mode is expected in the 21st century.

Wang, H, Xie SP, Kosaka Y, Liu QY, Du Y.  2019.  Dynamics of Asian summer monsoon response to anthropogenic aerosol forcing. Journal of Climate. 32:843-858.   10.1175/jcli-d-18-0386.1   AbstractWebsite

Anthropogenic aerosols partially mask the greenhouse warming and cause the reduction in Asian summer monsoon precipitation and circulation. By decomposing the atmospheric change into the direct atmospheric response to radiative forcing and sea surface temperature (SST)-mediated change, the physical mechanisms for anthropogenic-aerosol-induced changes in the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) are diagnosed. Using coupled and atmospheric general circulation models, this study shows that the aerosol-induced troposphere cooling over Asian land regions generates anomalous sinking motion between 20 degrees and 40 degrees N and weakens the EASM north of 20 degrees N without SST change. The decreased EASM precipitation and the attendant wind changes are largely due to this direct atmospheric response to radiative forcing, although the aerosol-induced North Pacific SST cooling also contributes. The SST-mediated change dominates the aerosol-induced SASM response, with contributions from both the north-south interhemispheric SST gradient and the local SST cooling pattern over the tropical Indian Ocean. Specifically, with large meridional gradient, the zonal-mean SST cooling pattern is most important for the Asian summer monsoon response to anthropogenic aerosol forcing, resulting in a reorganization of the regional meridional atmospheric overturning circulation. While uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing has been emphasized in the literature, our results show that the intermodel spread is as large in the SST effect on summer monsoon rainfall, calling for more research into the ocean-atmosphere coupling.

Wang, YQ, Xie SP, Wang B, Xu HM.  2005.  Large-scale atmospheric forcing by southeast Pacific boundary layer clouds: A regional model study. Journal of Climate. 18:934-951. Abstract
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Wang, H, Xie SP, Liu QY.  2016.  Comparison of climate response to anthropogenic aerosol versus greenhouse gas forcing: Distinct patterns. Journal of Climate. 29:5175-5188.   10.1175/jcli-d-16-0106.1   AbstractWebsite

Spatial patterns of climate response to changes in anthropogenic aerosols and well-mixed greenhouse gases ( GHGs) are investigated using climate model simulations for the twentieth century. The climate response shows both similarities and differences in spatial pattern between aerosol and GHG runs. Common climate response between aerosol and GHG runs tends to be symmetric about the equator. This work focuses on the distinctive patterns that are unique to the anthropogenic aerosol forcing. The tropospheric cooling induced by anthropogenic aerosols is locally enhanced in the midlatitude Northern Hemisphere with a deep vertical structure around 40 degrees N, anchoring a westerly acceleration in thermal wind balance. The aerosol-induced negative radiative forcing in the Northern Hemisphere requires a cross-equatorial Hadley circulation to compensate interhemispheric energy imbalance in the atmosphere. Associated with a southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone, this interhemispheric asymmetric mode is unique to aerosol forcing and absent in GHG runs. Comparison of key climate response pattern indices indicates that the aerosol forcing dominates the interhemispheric asymmetric climate response in historical all-forcing simulations, as well as regional precipitation change such as the drying trend over the East Asian monsoon region. While GHG forcing dominates global mean surface temperature change, its effect is on par with and often opposes the aerosol effect on precipitation, making it difficult to detect anthropogenic change in rainfall from historical observations.

Wang, G, Xie S-P, Qu T, Huang RX.  2011.  Deep South China Sea circulation. Geophysical Research Letters. 38   10.1029/2010gl046626   Abstract
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Wang, LY, Liu QY, Xu LX, Xie SP.  2013.  Response of mode water and Subtropical Countercurrent to greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing in the North Pacific. Journal of Ocean University of China. 12:222-229.   10.1007/s11802-013-2193-x   AbstractWebsite

The response of the North Pacific Subtropical Mode Water and Subtropical Countercurrent (STCC) to changes in greenhouse gas (GHG) and aerosol is investigated based on the 20th-century historical and single-forcing simulations with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model version 3 (GFDL CM3). The aerosol effect causes sea surface temperature (SST) to decrease in the mid-latitude North Pacific, especially in the Kuroshio Extension region, during the past five decades (1950-2005), and this cooling effect exceeds the warming effect by the GHG increase. The STCC response to the GHG and aerosol forcing are opposite. In the GHG (aerosol) forcing run, the STCC decelerates (accelerates) due to the decreased (increased) mode waters in the North Pacific, resulting from a weaker (stronger) front in the mixed layer depth and decreased (increased) subduction in the mode water formation region. The aerosol effect on the SST, mode waters and STCC more than offsets the GHG effect. The response of SST in a zonal band around 40A degrees N and the STCC to the combined forcing in the historical simulation is similar to the response to the aerosol forcing.

Wang, Q, Zhang SP, Xie SP, Norris JR, Sun JX, Jiang YX.  2019.  Observed variations of the atmospheric boundary layer and stratocumulus over a warm eddy in the Kuroshio Extension. Monthly Weather Review. 147:1581-1591.   10.1175/mwr-d-18-0381.1   AbstractWebsite

A research vessel sailing across a warm eddy in the Kuroshio Extension on 13 April 2016 captured an abrupt development of stratocumulus under synoptic high pressure. Shipboard observations and results from regional atmospheric model simulations indicate that increased surface heat flux over the ocean eddy lowered surface pressure and thereby accelerated southeasterly winds. The southeasterly winds transported moisture toward the low pressure and enhanced the air-sea interface heat flux, which in turn deepened the low pressure and promoted low-level convergence and rising motion over the warm eddy. The lifting condensation level lowered and the top of the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) rose, thereby aiding the development of the stratocumulus. Further experiments showed that 6 degrees C sea surface temperature anomalies associated with the 400-km-diameter warm eddy accounted for 80% of the total ascending motion and 95% of total cloud water mixing ratio in the marine atmospheric boundary layer during the development of stratocumulus. The synthesis of in situ soundings and modeling contributes to understanding of the mechanism by which the MABL and marine stratocumulus respond to ocean eddies.

Wei, Z, Yan D, Dongxiao W, Qiang X, Shangping X.  2010.  Pathways of mesoscale variability in the South China Sea. Chinese Journal of Oceanology and Limnology. 28:1055-1067.   10.1007/s00343-010-0035-x   Abstract
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Weller, E, Feng M, Hendon H, Ma J, Xie SP, Caputi N.  2012.  Interannual Variations of Wind Regimes off the Subtropical Western Australia Coast during Austral Winter and Spring. Journal of Climate. 25:5587-5599.   10.1175/jcli-d-11-00324.1   Abstract

Off the Western Australia coast, interannual variations of wind regime during the austral winter and spring are significantly correlated with the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) and the southern annular mode (SAM) variability. Atmospheric general circulation model experiments forced by an idealized IOD sea surface temperature anomaly field suggest that the IOD-generated deep atmospheric convection anomalies trigger a Rossby wave train in the upper troposphere that propagates into the southern extratropics and induces positive geopotential height anomalies over southern Australia, independent of the SAM. The positive geopotential height anomalies extended from the upper troposphere to the surface, south of the Australian continent, resulting in easterly wind anomalies off the Western Australia coast and a reduction of the high-frequency synoptic storm events that deliver the majority of southwest Australia rainfall during austral winter and spring. In the marine environment, the wind anomalies and reduction of storm events may hamper the western rock lobster recruitment process.