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de Szoeke, SP, Wang YQ, Xie SP, Miyama T.  2006.  Effect of shallow cumulus convection on the eastern Pacific climate in a coupled model. Geophysical Research Letters. 33   10.1029/2006gl026715   Abstract
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de Szoeke, SP, Xie SP, Miyama T, Richards KJ, Small RJO.  2007.  What maintains the SST front north of the eastern Pacific equatorial cold tongue?* Journal of Climate. 20:2500-2514.   10.1175/jcli4173.1   Abstract
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Sugimoto, S, Hanawa K, Watanabe T, Suga T, Xie SP.  2017.  Enhanced warming of the subtropical mode water in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. Nature Climate Change. 7:656-+.   10.1038/nclimate3371   AbstractWebsite
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Stuecker, MF, Bitz CM, Armour KC, Proistosescu C, Kang SM, Xie SP, Kim D, McGregor S, Zhang WJ, Zhao S, Cai WJ, Dong Y, Jin FF.  2018.  Polar amplification dominated by local forcing and feedbacks. Nature Climate Change. 8:1076-+.   10.1038/s41558-018-0339-y   AbstractWebsite

The surface temperature response to greenhouse gas forcing displays a characteristic pattern of polar-amplified warming(1-5), particularly in the Northern Hemisphere. However, the causes of this polar amplification are still debated. Some studies highlight the importance of surface-albedo feedback(6-8), while others find larger contributions from longwave feedbacks(4,9,10), with changes in atmospheric and oceanic heat transport also thought to play a role(11-16). Here, we determine the causes of polar amplification using climate model simulations in which CO2 forcing is prescribed in distinct geographical regions, with the linear sum of climate responses to regional forcings replicating the response to global forcing. The degree of polar amplification depends strongly on the location of CO2 forcing. In particular, polar amplification is found to be dominated by forcing in the polar regions, specifically through positive local lapse-rate feedback, with ice-albedo and Planck feedbacks playing subsidiary roles. Extra-polar forcing is further shown to be conducive to polar warming, but given that it induces a largely uniform warming pattern through enhanced poleward heat transport, it contributes little to polar amplification. Therefore, understanding polar amplification requires primarily a better insight into local forcing and feedbacks rather than extra-polar processes.

Small, RJ, Richards KJ, Xie SP, Dutrieux P, Miyama T.  2009.  Damping of Tropical Instability Waves caused by the action of surface currents on stress. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans. 114   10.1029/2008jc005147   Abstract
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Small, RJ, Xie SP, Wang YQ.  2003.  Numerical simulation of atmospheric response to Pacific tropical instability waves. Journal of Climate. 16:3723-3741. Abstract
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Small, JR, Xie S-P, Maloney ED, de Szoeke SP, Miyama T.  2011.  Intraseasonal variability in the far-east pacific: investigation of the role of air-sea coupling in a regional coupled model. Climate Dynamics. 36:867-890.   10.1007/s00382-010-0786-2   Abstract
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Small, RJ, Xie SP, Wang YQ, Esbensen SK, Vickers D.  2005.  Numerical simulation of boundary layer structure and cross-equatorial flow in the Eastern Pacific. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 62:1812-1830. Abstract
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Siler, N, Kosaka Y, Xie SP, Li XC.  2017.  Tropical ocean contributions to California's surprisingly dry El Nino of 2015/16. Journal of Climate. 30:10067-10079.   10.1175/jcli-d-17-0177.1   AbstractWebsite

The major El Nino of 2015/16 brought significantly less precipitation to California than previous events of comparable strength, much to the disappointment of residents suffering through the state's fourth consecutive year of severe drought. Here, California's weak precipitation in 2015/16 relative to previous major El Nino events is investigated within a 40-member ensemble of atmosphere-only simulations run with historical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and constant radiative forcing. The simulations reveal significant differences in both California precipitation and the large-scale atmospheric circulation between 2015/16 and previous strong El Nino events, which are similar to (albeit weaker than) the differences found in observations. Principal component analysis indicates that these ensemble-mean differences were likely related to a pattern of tropical SST variability with a strong signal in the Indian Ocean and western Pacific and a weaker signal in the eastern equatorial Pacific and subtropical North Atlantic. This SST pattern was missed by the majority of forecast models, which could partly explain their erroneous predictions of above-average precipitation in California in 2015/16.

Shu, W, Lixin W, Qinyu L, Xie S-P.  2010.  Development processes of the Tropical Pacific Meridional Mode. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. 27:95-99.   10.1007/s00376-009-8067-x   Abstract
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Shi, JR, Xie SP, Talley LD.  2018.  Evolving relative importance of the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic in anthropogenic ocean heat uptake. Journal of Climate. 31:7459-7479.   10.1175/jcli-d-18-0170.1   AbstractWebsite

Ocean uptake of anthropogenic heat over the past 15 years has mostly occurred in the Southern Ocean, based on Argo float observations. This agrees with historical simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), where the Southern Ocean (south of 30 degrees S) accounts for 72% +/- 28% of global heat uptake, while the contribution from the North Atlantic north of 30 degrees N is only 6%. Aerosols preferentially cool the Northern Hemisphere, and the effect on surface heat flux over the subpolar North Atlantic opposes the greenhouse gas (GHG) effect in nearly equal magnitude. This heat uptake compensation is associated with weakening (strengthening) of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in response to GHG (aerosol) radiative forcing. Aerosols are projected to decline in the near future, reinforcing the greenhouse effect on the North Atlantic heat uptake. As a result, the Southern Ocean, which will continue to take up anthropogenic heat largely through the mean upwelling of water from depth, will be joined by increased relative contribution from the North Atlantic because of substantial AMOC slowdown in the twenty-first century. In the RCP8.5 scenario, the percentage contribution to global uptake is projected to decrease to 48% +/- 8% in the Southern Ocean and increase to 26% +/- 6% in the northern North Atlantic. Despite the large uncertainty in the magnitude of projected aerosol forcing, our results suggest that anthropogenic aerosols, given their geographic distributions and temporal trajectories, strongly influence the high-latitude ocean heat uptake and interhemispheric asymmetry through AMOC change.

Seo, H, Xie SP.  2013.  Impact of ocean warm layer thickness on the intensity of hurricane Katrina in a regional coupled model. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics. 122:19-32.   10.1007/s00703-013-0275-3   AbstractWebsite

The effect of pre-storm subsurface thermal structure on the intensity of hurricane Katrina (2005) is examined using a regional coupled model. The Estimating Circulation and Climate of Ocean (ECCO) ocean state estimate is used to initialize the ocean component of the coupled model, and the source of deficiencies in the simulation of Katrina intensity is investigated in relation to the initial depth of 26 A degrees C isotherm (D26). The model underestimates the intensity of Katrina partly due to shallow D26 in ECCO. Sensitivity tests with various ECCO initial fields indicate that the correct relationship between intensity and D26 cannot be derived because D26 variability is underestimated in ECCO. A series of idealized experiments is carried out by modifying initial ECCO D26 to match the observed range. A more reasonable relationship between Katrina's intensity and pre-storm D26 emerges: the intensity is much more sensitive to D26 than to sea surface temperature (SST). Ocean mixed layer process plays a critical role in modulating inner-core SSTs when D26 is deep, reducing mixed layer cooling and lowering the center pressure of the Katrina. Our result lends strong support to the notion that accurate initialization of pre-storm subsurface thermal structure in prediction models is critical for a skillful forecast of intensity of Katrina and likely other intense storms.

Schott, FA, Xie SP, McCreary JP.  2009.  INDIAN OCEAN CIRCULATION AND CLIMATE VARIABILITY. Reviews of Geophysics. 47   10.1029/2007rg000245   Abstract
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Sasaki, H, Xie S-P, Taguchi B, Nonaka M, Hosoda S, Masumoto Y.  2012.  Interannual variations of the Hawaiian Lee Countercurrent induced by potential vorticity variability in the subsurface. Journal of Oceanography. 68:93-111.   10.1007/s10872-011-0074-8   Abstract
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Sasaki, H, Xie S-P, Taguchi B, Nonaka M, Masumoto Y.  2010.  Seasonal variations of the Hawaiian Lee Countercurrent induced by the meridional migration of the trade winds. Ocean Dynamics. 60:705-715.   10.1007/s10236-009-0258-6   Abstract
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Sampe, T, Xie SP.  2007.  Mapping high sea winds from space: A global climatology. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 88:1965-+.   10.1175/bams-88-12-1965   Abstract
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Sampe, T, Xie SP.  2008.  Mapping high sea winds from space: A global climatology - Reply. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 89:1380-1380.   10.1175/2008bams2655.1   Abstract
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Saji, NH, Xie SP, Yamagata T.  2006.  Tropical Indian Ocean variability in the IPCC twentieth-century climate simulations. Journal of Climate. 19:4397-4417. Abstract
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