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Luebbecke, JF, Boening CW, Keenlyside NS, Xie S-P.  2010.  On the connection between Benguela and equatorial Atlantic Ninos and the role of the South Atlantic Anticyclone. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans. 115   10.1029/2009jc005964   Abstract
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Long, SM, Xie SP, Zheng XT, Liu QY.  2014.  Fast and slow responses to global warming: Sea surface temperature and precipitation patterns. Journal of Climate. 27:285-299.   10.1175/jcli-d-13-00297.1   AbstractWebsite

The time-dependent response of sea surface temperature (SST) to global warming and the associated atmospheric changes are investigated based on a 1% yr(-1) CO2 increase to the quadrupling experiment of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model, version 2.1. The SST response consists of a fast component, for which the ocean mixed layer is in quasi equilibrium with the radiative forcing, and a slow component owing to the gradual warming of the deeper ocean in and beneath the thermocline. A diagnostic method is proposed to isolate spatial patterns of the fast and slow responses. The deep ocean warming retards the surface warming in the fast response but turns into a forcing for the slow response. As a result, the fast and slow responses are nearly opposite to each other in spatial pattern, especially over the subpolar North Atlantic/Southern Ocean regions of the deep-water/bottom-water formation, and in the interhemispheric SST gradient between the southern and northern subtropics. Wind-evaporation-SST feedback is an additional mechanism for the SST pattern formation in the tropics. Analyses of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble of global warming simulations confirm the validity of the diagnostic method that separates the fast and slow responses. Tropical annual rainfall change follows the SST warming pattern in both the fast and slow responses in CMIP5, increasing where the SST increase exceeds the tropical mean warming.

Long, SM, Xie SP.  2016.  Uncertainty in tropical rainfall projections: Atmospheric circulation effect and the ocean coupling. Journal of Climate. 29:2671-2687.   10.1175/jcli-d-15-0601.1   AbstractWebsite

Uncertainty in tropical rainfall projections under increasing radiative forcing is studied by using 26 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Intermodel spread in projected rainfall change generally increases with interactive sea surface temperature (SST) warming in coupled models compared to atmospheric models with a common pattern of prescribed SST increase. Moisture budget analyses reveal that much of the model uncertainty in tropical rainfall projections originates from intermodel discrepancies in the dynamical contribution due to atmospheric circulation change. Intermodel singular value decomposition (SVD) analyses further show a tight coupling between the intermodel variations in SST warming pattern and circulation change in the tropics. In the zonal mean, the first SVD mode features an anomalous interhemispheric Hadley circulation, while the second mode displays an SST peak near the equator. The asymmetric mode is accompanied by a coupled pattern of wind-evaporation-SST feedback in the tropics and is further tied to interhemispheric asymmetric change in extratropical shortwave radiative flux at the top of the atmosphere. Intermodel variability in the tropical circulation change exerts a strong control on the spread in tropical cloud cover change and cloud radiative effects among models. The results indicate that understanding the coupling between the anthropogenic changes in SST pattern and atmospheric circulation holds the key to reducing uncertainties in projections of future changes in tropical rainfall and clouds.

Long, SM, Xie SP.  2015.  Intermodel variations in projected precipitation change over the North Atlantic: Sea surface temperature effect. Geophysical Research Letters. 42:4158-4165.   10.1002/2015gl063852   AbstractWebsite

Intermodel variations in future precipitation projection in the North Atlantic are studied using 23 state-of-art models from Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Model uncertainty in annual mean rainfall change is locally enhanced along the Gulf Stream. The moisture budget analysis reveals that much of the model uncertainty in rainfall change can be traced back to the discrepancies in surface evaporation change and transient eddy effect among models. Results of the intermodel Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) analysis show that intermodel variations in local sea surface temperature (SST) pattern exert a strong control over the spread of rainfall projection among models through the modulation of evaporation change. The first three SVD modes explain more than 60% of the intermodel variance of rainfall projection and show distinct SST patterns with mode water-induced banded structures, reduced subpolar warming due to ocean dynamical cooling, and the Gulf Stream shift, respectively.

Liu, W, Lu J, Xie SP.  2015.  Understanding the Indian Ocean response to double CO2 forcing in a coupled model. Ocean Dynamics. 65:1037-1046.   10.1007/s10236-015-0854-6   AbstractWebsite

This study investigates the roles of multiple ocean-atmospheric feedbacks in the oceanic response to increased carbon dioxide by applying an overriding technique to a coupled climate model. The annual-mean sea surface temperature (SST) response in the Indian Ocean exhibits a zonal-dipolar warming pattern, with a reduced warming in the eastern and enhanced warming in the western tropical Indian Ocean (TIO), reminiscent of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) pattern. The development of the dipole pattern exhibits a pronounced seasonal evolution. The overriding experiments show that the wind-evaporation-sea surface temperature (WES) feedback accounts for most of the enhanced warming in the western and central TIO during May-July with reduced southerly monsoonal wind and contributes partially to the reduced warming in the eastern TIO during June-September. The Bjerknes feedback explains most of the reduced warming in the eastern TIO during August-October, accompanied by a reduction of precipitation, easterly wind anomalies, and a thermocline shoaling along the equator. Both feedbacks facilitate the formation of the dipolar warming pattern in the TIO. The residual from the Bjerknes and WES feedbacks is attributable to the "static" response to increasing CO2. While the static SST response also contributes to the seasonal SST variations, the static precipitation response is relatively uniform in the TIO, appearing as a general increase of precipitation along the equatorial Indian Ocean during June-September.

Liu, W, Lu J, Xie SP, Fedorov A.  2018.  Southern Ocean heat uptake, redistribution, and storage in a warming climate: The role of meridional overturning circulation. Journal of Climate. 31:4727-4743.   10.1175/jcli-d-17-0761.1   AbstractWebsite

Climate models show that most of the anthropogenic heat resulting from increased atmospheric CO2 enters the Southern Ocean near 60 degrees S and is stored around 45 degrees S. This heat is transported to the ocean interior by the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) with wind changes playing an important role in the process. To isolate and quantify the latter effect, we apply an overriding technique to a climate model and decompose the total ocean response to CO2 increase into two major components: one due to wind changes and the other due to direct CO2 effect. We find that the poleward-intensified zonal surface winds tend to shift and strengthen the ocean Deacon cell and hence the residual MOC, leading to anomalous divergence of ocean meridional heat transport around 60 degrees S coupled to a surface heat flux increase. In contrast, at 45 degrees S we see anomalous convergence of ocean heat transport and heat loss at the surface. As a result, the wind-induced ocean heat storage (OHS) peaks at 46 degrees S at a rate of 0.07 ZJ yr(-1) (degrees lat)(-1) (1 ZJ = 10(21) J), contributing 20% to the total OHS maximum. The direct CO2 effect, on the other hand, very slightly alters the residual MOC but primarily warms the ocean. It induces a small but nonnegligible change in eddy heat transport and causes OHS to peak at 42 degrees S at a rate of 0.30 ZJ yr(-1) (degrees lat)(-1), accounting for 80% of the OHS maximum. We also find that the eddy-induced MOC weakens, primarily caused by a buoyancy flux change as a result of the direct CO2 effect, and does not compensate the intensified Deacon cell.

Liu, JW, Xie SP, Norris JR, Zhang SP.  2014.  Low-level cloud response to the Gulf Stream front in winter using CALIPSO. Journal of Climate. 27:4421-4432.   10.1175/jcli-d-13-00469.1   AbstractWebsite

A sharp sea surface temperature front develops between the warm water of the Gulf Stream and cold continental shelf water in boreal winter. This front has a substantial impact on the marine boundary layer. The present study analyzes and synthesizes satellite observations and reanalysis data to examine how the sea surface temperature front influences the three-dimensional structure of low-level clouds. The Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) satellite captures a sharp low-level cloud transition across the Gulf Stream front, a structure frequently observed under the northerly condition. Low-level cloud top (<4 km) increases by about 500 m from the cold to the warm flank of the front. The sea surface temperature front induces a secondary low-level circulation through sea level pressure adjustment with ascending motion over the warm water and descending motion over cold water. The secondary circulation further contributes to the cross-frontal transition of low-level clouds. Composite analysis shows that surface meridional advection over the front plays an important role in the development of the marine atmospheric boundary layer and low-level clouds. Under cold northerly advection over the Gulf Stream front, strong near-surface instability leads to a well-mixed boundary layer over the Gulf Stream, causing southward deepening of low-level clouds across the sea surface temperature front. Moreover, the front affects the freezing level by transferring heat to the atmosphere and therefore influences the cross-frontal variation of the cloud phase.

Liu, QY, Xie SP, Li LJ, Maximenko NA.  2005.  Ocean thermal advective effect on the annual range of sea surface temperature. Geophysical Research Letters. 32   10.1029/2005gl024493   Abstract
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Liu, W, Lu J, Leung LR, Xie SP, Liu ZY, Zhu J.  2015.  The de-correlation of westerly winds and westerly-wind stress over the Southern Ocean during the Last Glacial Maximum. Climate Dynamics. 45:3157-3168.   10.1007/s00382-015-2530-4   AbstractWebsite

Motivated by indications from paleo-evidence, this paper investigates the changes of the Southern Westerly Winds (SWW) and westerly-wind stress between the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and pre-industrial in the PMIP3/CMIP5 simulations, highlighting the role of Antarctic sea ice in modulating the wind effect on ocean. Particularly, a de-correlation occurs between the changes in SWW and westerly-wind stress, caused primarily by an equatorward expansion of winter Antarctic sea ice that undermines the efficacy of wind in generating stress over the liquid ocean. Such de-correlation may reflect the LGM condition in reality, in view of the fact that the model which simulates this condition has most fidelity in simulating modern SWW and Antarctic sea ice. Therein two models stand out for their agreements with paleo-evidence regarding the change of SWW and the westerly-wind stress. They simulate strengthened and poleward-migrated LGM SWW in the atmosphere, consistent with the indications from dust records. Whilst in the ocean, they well capture an equatorward-shifted pattern of the observed oceanic front shift, with most pronounced equatorward-shifted westerly wind stress during the LGM.

Liu, JW, Zhang SP, Xie SP.  2013.  Two types of surface wind response to the East China Sea Kuroshio Front. Journal of Climate. 26:8616-8627.   10.1175/jcli-d-12-00092.1   AbstractWebsite

Effects of the sea surface temperature (SST) front along the East China Sea Kuroshio on sea surface winds at different time scales are investigated. In winter and spring, the climatological vector wind is strongest on the SST front while the scalar wind speed reaches a maximum on the warm flank of the front and is collocated with the maximum difference between sea surface temperature and surface air temperature (SST - SAT). The distinction is due to the change in relative importance of two physical processes of SST-wind interaction at different time scales. The SST front-induced sea surface level pressure (SLP) adjustment (SF-SLP) contributes to a strong vector wind above the front on long time scales, consistent with the collocation of baroclinicity in the marine boundary layer and corroborated by the similarity between the thermal wind and observed wind shear between 1000 and 850 hPa. In contrast, the SST modulation of synoptic winds is more evident on the warm flank of the SST front. Large thermal instability of the near-surface layer strengthens temporal synoptic wind perturbations by intensifying vertical mixing, resulting in a scalar wind maximum. The vertical mixing and SF-SLP mechanisms are both at work but manifest more clearly at the synoptic time scale and in the long-term mean, respectively. The cross-frontal variations are 1.5 m s(-1) in both the scalar and vector wind speeds, representing the vertical mixing and SF-SLP effects, respectively. The results illustrate the utility of high-frequency sampling by satellite scatterometers.

Liu, W, Xie S-P, Liu Z, Zhu J.  2017.  Overlooked possibility of a collapsed Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in warming climate. Science Advances. 3   10.1126/sciadv.1601666   Abstract

Changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are moderate in most climate model projections under increasing greenhouse gas forcing. This intermodel consensus may be an artifact of common model biases that favor a stable AMOC. Observationally based freshwater budget analyses suggest that the AMOC is in an unstable regime susceptible for large changes in response to perturbations. By correcting the model biases, we show that the AMOC collapses 300 years after the atmospheric CO2 concentration is abruptly doubled from the 1990 level. Compared to an uncorrected model, the AMOC collapse brings about large, markedly different climate responses: a prominent cooling over the northern North Atlantic and neighboring areas, sea ice increases over the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian seas and to the south of Greenland, and a significant southward rain-belt migration over the tropical Atlantic. Our results highlight the need to develop dynamical metrics to constrain models and the importance of reducing model biases in long-term climate projection.

Liu, W, Xie SP.  2018.  An ocean view of the global surface warming hiatus. Oceanography. 31:72-79.   10.5670/oceanog.2018.217   AbstractWebsite

The rate of global mean surface temperature increase slowed during 1998-2012. We review oceanic changes during this global warming hiatus from different but related perspectives. In one perspective, we explore the physical mechanisms for sea surface temperature patterns and highlight the role of natural variability, particularly the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) that both have chaotic/random phases. In the other perspective, we investigate how the hiatus relates to changes in energy fluxes at the top of the atmosphere and to the three-dimensional distribution of ocean heat content change on decadal timescales. We find that the recent surface warming hiatus is associated with a transition of the IPO from a positive to negative phase and with heat redistribution between the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans. The AMO has shifted to a positive phase since the late 1990s, inducing a La Nina-type response over the tropical Pacific via a tropic-wide teleconnection, contributing to the global warming hiatus.

Liu, JW, Xie SP, Yang S, Zhang SP.  2016.  Low-cloud transitions across the Kuroshio Front in the East China Sea. Journal of Climate. 29:4429-4443.   10.1175/jcli-d-15-0589.1   AbstractWebsite

The East China Sea Kuroshio (ECSK) flows in the East Asian monsoon region where the background atmospheric circulation varies significantly with season. A sea surface temperature (SST) front associated with the ECSK becomes narrower and sharper from winter to spring. The present study investigates how low clouds respond to the ECSK front in different seasons by synthesizing spaceborne lidar and surface visual observations. The results reveal prominent cross-frontal transitions in low clouds, which exhibit distinct behavior between winter and spring. In winter, cloud responses are generally confined below 4 km by the strong background descending motion and feature a gradual cloud-top elevation from the cold to the warm flank of the front. The ice clouds on the cold flank of the ECSK front transform into liquid water clouds and rain on the warm flank. The springtime clouds, by contrast, are characterized by a sharp cross-frontal transition with deep clouds reaching up to 7 km over the ECSK. In both winter and spring, the low-cloud morphology exhibits a large transformation from the cold to the warm flank of the ECSK front, including increases in cloud-top height, a decline in smoothness of cloud top, and the transition from stratiform to convective clouds. All this along with the atmospheric soundings indicates that the decoupling of the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) is more prevalent on the warm flank of the front. Thus, long-term observations reveal prominent cross-frontal low-cloud transitions in morphology associated with MABL decoupling that resemble a large-scale cloud-regime transition over the eastern subtropical Pacific.

Liu, L, Xie SP, Zheng XT, Li T, Du Y, Huang G, Yu WD.  2014.  Indian Ocean variability in the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble: the zonal dipole mode. Climate Dynamics. 43:1715-1730.   10.1007/s00382-013-2000-9   AbstractWebsite

The performance of 21 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models in the simulation of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode is evaluated. Compared to CMIP3, CMIP5 models exhibit a similar spread in IOD intensity. A detailed diagnosis was carried out to understand whether CMIP5 models have shown improvement in their representation of the important dynamical and thermodynamical feedbacks in the tropical Indian Ocean. These include the Bjerknes dynamic air-sea feedback, which includes the equatorial zonal wind response to sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly, the thermocline response to equatorial zonal wind forcing, the ocean subsurface temperature response to the thermocline variations, and the thermodynamic air-sea coupling that includes the wind-evaporation-SST and cloud-radiation-SST feedback. Compared to CMIP3, the CMIP5 ensemble produces a more realistic positive wind-evaporation-SST feedback during the IOD developing phase, while the simulation of Bjerknes dynamic feedback is more unrealistic especially with regard to the wind response to SST forcing and the thermocline response to surface wind forcing. The overall CMIP5 performance in the IOD simulation does not show remarkable improvements compared to CMIP3. It is further noted that the El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and IOD amplitudes are closely related, if a model generates a strong ENSO, it is likely that this model also simulates a strong IOD.

Liu, C, Xie SP, Li PL, Xu LX, Gao WD.  2017.  Climatology and decadal variations in multicore structure of the North Pacific subtropical mode water. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans. 122:7506-7520.   10.1002/2017jc013071   AbstractWebsite

The pycnostad of the North Pacific subtropical mode water (STMW) often displays multiple vertical minima in the potential vorticity profile. Argo profile data from 2004 to 2015 are used to investigate interannual to decadal variations of the multicore structure. Climatologically, about 24% pycostads of STMW have multicore structure, and most of them distribute in the region west of 150 degrees E. STMW cores are classified into three submodes-the cold, middle, and warm ones with potential temperatures of 16.0-17 degrees C, 17-18 degrees C, and 18-19.5 degrees C, respectively. The Kuroshio Extension (KE) varies between stable and unstable states. The unstable KE with large meanders increases the subsurface stratification and shoals the winter mixed layer east of 150 degrees E with warmer temperatures. There, the dominant STMW type varies from the cold single type in stable KE years (making up 72% of the profiles with STMW) to the middle single one (53%) in unstable years. The variation of the dominant STMW type in the region east of 150 degrees E subsequently affects the multicore structure of STMW west of 150 degrees E. In a broad region between 130 degrees E and 180 degrees E, profiles with STMW are fewer in unstable years but the proportion of multicore profiles increases among STMW profiles. This might be due to the split recirculation gyre with a chaotic KE.

Liu, JW, Xie SP, Zhang SP.  2015.  Effects of the Hawaiian Islands on the vertical structure of low-level clouds from CALIPSO lidar. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres. 120:215-228.   10.1002/2014jd022410   AbstractWebsite

The steady northeast trade winds impinge on the Hawaiian Islands, producing prominent island wakes of multispatial scales from tens to thousands of kilometers. Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) reveal rich three-dimensional structures of low-level clouds that are induced by the islands, distinct from the background environment. The cloud frequency peaks between 1.5 and 2.0km in cloud top elevation over the windward slopes of the islands of Kauai and Oahu due to orographic lifting and daytime island heating. In the nighttime near-island wake of Kauai, CALIPSO captures a striking cloud hole below 1.6km as the cold advection from the island suppresses low-level clouds. The cyclonic eddy of the mechanical wake behind the island of Hawaii favors the formation of low-level clouds (below 2.5km), and the anticyclonic eddy suppresses the low-level cloud formation, indicative of the dynamical effect on the vertical structure of low-level clouds. In the long Hawaiian wake due to air-sea interaction, low-level clouds form over both the warmer and colder waters, but the cloud tops are 400-600m higher over the warm than the cold waters. In addition, the day-night differences and the sensitivity of low-level clouds to the background trade wind inversion height are also studied. Key Points

Liu, WT, Xie XS, Polito PS, Xie SP, Hashizume H.  2000.  Atmospheric manifestation of tropical instability wave observed by QuikSCAT and tropical rain measuring mission. Geophysical Research Letters. 27:2545-2548. Abstract
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Liu, W, Xie SP, Lu J.  2016.  Tracking ocean heat uptake during the surface warming hiatus. Nature Communications. 7   10.1038/ncomms10926   AbstractWebsite

Ocean heat uptake is observed to penetrate deep into the Atlantic and Southern Oceans during the recent hiatus of global warming. Here we show that the deep heat penetration in these two basins is not unique to the hiatus but is characteristic of anthropogenic warming and merely reflects the depth of the mean meridional overturning circulation in the basin. We find, however, that heat redistribution in the upper 350m between the Pacific and Indian Oceans is closely tied to the surface warming hiatus. The Indian Ocean shows an anomalous warming below 50m during hiatus events due to an enhanced heat transport by the Indonesian throughflow in response to the intensified trade winds in the equatorial Pacific. Thus, the Pacific and Indian Oceans are the key regions to track ocean heat uptake during the surface warming hiatus.

Lintner, BR, Langenbrunner B, Neelin JD, Anderson BT, Niznik MJ, Li G, Xie SP.  2016.  Characterizing CMIP5 model spread in simulated rainfall in the Pacific Intertropical Convergence and South Pacific Convergence Zones. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres. 121:11590-11607.   10.1002/2016jd025284   AbstractWebsite

Current-generation climate models exhibit various errors or biases in both the spatial distribution and intensity of precipitation relative to observations. In this study, empirical orthogonal function analysis is applied to the space-model index domain of precipitation over the Pacific from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations to explore systematic spread of simulated precipitation characteristics across the ensemble. Two significant modes of spread, generically termed principal uncertainty patterns (PUPs), are identified in the December-January-February precipitation climatology: the leading PUP is associated with the meridional width of deep convection, while the second is associated with tradeoffs in precipitation intensity along the South Pacific Convergence Zone, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), and the spurious Southern Hemisphere ITCZ. An important factor distinguishing PUPs from the analogy to time series analysis is that the modes can reflect either true systematic intermodel variance patterns or internal variability. In order to establish that the PUPS reflect the former, three complementary tests are performed by using preindustrial control simulations: a bootstrap significance test for reproducibility of the intermodel spatial patterns, a check for robustness over very long climatological averages, and a test on the loadings of these patterns relative to interdecadal sampling. Composite analysis based on these PUPs demonstrates physically plausible relationships to CMIP5 ensemble spread in simulated sea surface temperatures (SSTs), circulation, and moisture. Further analysis of atmosphere-only, prescribed SST simulations demonstrates decreased spread in the spatial distribution of precipitation, while substantial spread in intensity remains. Key Points Systematic spread in CMIP5 simulation of Pacific region rainfall is investigated by using empirical mode reduction techniques Two significant modes of model spread are identified for the DJF rainfall climatology These modes are interpreted in terms of spread in simulated patterns of SST and circulation

Lin, L, Xu YY, Wang ZL, Diao CR, Dong WJ, Xie SP.  2018.  Changes in extreme rainfall over India and China attributed to regional aerosol-cloud interaction during the late 20th century rapid industrialization. Geophysical Research Letters. 45:7857-7865.   10.1029/2018gl078308   AbstractWebsite

Both mean and extreme rainfall decreased over India and Northern China during 1979-2005 at a rate of 0.2%/decade. The aerosol dampening effects on rainfall has also been suggested as a main driver of mean rainfall shift in India and China. Conflicting views, however, exist on whether aerosols enhance or suppress hazardous extreme heavy rainfall. Using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble, here we show that only a subset of models realistically reproduces the late-20th-century trend of extreme rainfall for the three major regions in Asia: drying in India and Northern China and wetting in Southern China, all consistent with mean rainfall change. As a common feature, this subset of models includes an explicit treatment of the complex physical processes of aerosol-cloud interaction (i.e., both cloud-albedo and cloud-lifetime effects), while simulation performance deteriorates in models that include only aerosol direct effect or cloud-albedo effect. The enhanced aerosol pollution during this rapid industrialization era is the leading cause of the spatially heterogeneous extreme rainfall change by dimming surface solar radiation, cooling adjacent ocean water, and weakening moisture transport into the continental region, while GHG warming or natural variability alone cannot explain the observed changes. Our results indicate that the projected intensification of regional extreme rainfall during the early-to-mid 21st-century, in response to the anticipated aerosol reduction, may be underestimated in global climate models without detailed treatment of complex aerosol-cloud interaction. Plain Language Summary Over Asia, a robust pattern of drying-wetting-drying trend over three most populated regions (India, South China, and North China, respectively) have been observed in the past few decades. Yet the cause of the 30-year trend is rather unclear, with conflicting arguments on the importance of natural variability, the greenhouse gas, land cover, and aerosols. Most of the previous studies, however, fail to provide a holistic explanation for all three major regions simultaneously. The aerosol-cloud interaction-induced oceanic cooling, as we show here, provides a critical piece in reproducing the past trend. Only a fraction of climate models with complex treatment of aerosol-cloud interaction capture the observed pattern; thus, unconstrained model data set provides biased outlook of extreme rainfall in this region.

Lin, XP, Xie SP, Chen XP, Xu LL.  2006.  A well-mixed warm water column in the central Bohai Sea in summer: Effects of tidal and surface wave mixing. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans. 111   10.1029/2006jc003504   Abstract
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Li, JX, Wang GH, Xie SP, Zhang R, Sun ZY.  2012.  A winter warm pool southwest of Hainan Island due to the orographic wind wake. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans. 117   10.1029/2012jc008189   Abstract

A winter warm pool off the southwest coast of Hainan Island is uncovered from high resolution satellite measurements and field observations. The warm pool is characterized by warm temperature relative to the surroundings. It forms in October, intensifies from November to next January, and decays in February. Our results show that the wind wake in the northeast winter monsoon due to the orographic blockage by mountains of Hainan Island plays an important role in generating the warm pool by reducing surface latent heat flux. The core temperature of the warm pool is correlated with the El Nino and Southern Oscillation.

Li, G, Xie SP, Du Y.  2015.  Climate model errors over the South Indian Ocean thermocline dome and their effect on the basin mode of interannual variability. Journal of Climate. 28:3093-3098.   10.1175/jcli-d-14-00810.1   AbstractWebsite

An open-ocean thermocline dome south of the equator is a striking feature of the Indian Ocean (IO) as a result of equatorial westerly winds. Over the thermocline dome, the El Nino-forced Rossby waves help sustain the IO basin (IOB) mode and offer climate predictability for the IO and surrounding countries. This study shows that a common equatorial easterly wind bias, by forcing a westward-propagating downwelling Rossby wave in the southern IO, induces too deep a thermocline dome over the southwestern IO (SWIO) in state-of-the-art climate models. Such a deep SWIO thermocline weakens the influence of subsurface variability on sea surface temperature (SST), reducing the IOB amplitude and possibly limiting the models' skill of regional climate prediction. To the extent that the equatorial easterly wind bias originates from errors of the South Asian summer monsoon, improving the monsoon simulation can lead to substantial improvements in simulating and predicting interannual variability in the IO.