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Kamae, Y, Li XC, Xie SP, Ueda H.  2017.  Atlantic effects on recent decadal trends in global monsoon. Climate Dynamics. 49:3443-3455.   10.1007/s00382-017-3522-3   AbstractWebsite

Natural climate variability contributes to recent decadal climate trends. Specifically the trends during the satellite era since 1979 include Atlantic and Indian Ocean warming and Pacific cooling associated with phase shifts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and enhanced global monsoon (GM) circulation and rainfall especially in the Northern Hemisphere. Here we evaluate effects of the oceanic changes on the global and regional monsoon trends by partial ocean temperature restoring experiments in a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. Via trans-basin atmosphere-ocean teleconnections, the Atlantic warming drives a global pattern of sea surface temperature change that resembles observations, giving rise to the enhanced GM. The tropical Atlantic warming and the resultant Indian Ocean warming favor subtropical deep-tropospheric warming in both hemispheres, resulting in the enhanced monsoon circulations and precipitation over North America, South America and North Africa. The extratropical North Atlantic warming makes an additional contribution to the monsoon enhancement via Eurasian continent warming and resultant land-sea thermal gradient over Asia. The results of this study suggest that the Atlantic multidecadal variability can explain a substantial part of global climate variability including the recent decadal trends of GM.

Kamae, Y, Shiogama H, Imada Y, Mori M, Arakawa O, Mizuta R, Yoshida K, Takahashi C, Arai M, Ishii M, Watanabe M, Kimoto M, Xie SP, Ueda H.  2017.  Forced response and internal variability of summer climate over western North America. Climate Dynamics. 49:403-417.   10.1007/s00382-016-3350-x   AbstractWebsite

Over the past decade, anomalously hot summers and persistent droughts frequented over the western United States (wUS), the condition similar to the 1950s and 1960s. While atmospheric internal variability is important for mid-latitude interannual climate variability, it has been suggested that anthropogenic external forcing and multidecadal modes of variability in sea surface temperature, namely, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), also affect the occurrence of droughts and hot summers. In this study, 100-member ensemble simulations for 1951-2010 by an atmospheric general circulation model were used to explore relative contributions of anthropogenic warming, atmospheric internal variability, and atmospheric response to PDO and AMO to the decadal anomalies over the wUS. By comparing historical and sensitivity simulations driven by observed sea surface temperature, sea ice, historical forcing agents, and non-warming counterfactual climate forcing, we found that large portions of recent increases in mean temperature and frequency of hot summers (66 and 82 %) over the wUS can be attributed to the anthropogenic global warming. In contrast, multidecadal change in the wUS precipitation is explained by a combination of the negative PDO and the positive AMO after the 2000s. Diagnostics using a linear baroclinic model indicate that AMO- and PDO-related diabatic heating anomalies over the tropics contribute to the anomalous atmospheric circulation associated with the droughts and hot summers over wUS on multidecadal timescale. Those anomalies are not robust during the periods when PDO and AMO are in phase. The prolonged PDO-AMO antiphase period since the late twentieth century resulted in the substantial component of multidecadal anomalies in temperature and precipitation over the wUS.

Kamae, Y, Mei W, Xie SP.  2019.  Ocean warming pattern effects on future changes in East Asian atmospheric rivers. Environmental Research Letters. 14   10.1088/1748-9326/ab128a   AbstractWebsite

Atmospheric rivers (ARs), intense water vapor transports associated with extra-tropical cyclones, frequently bring heavy rainfalls over mid-latitudes. Over East Asia, landfalling ARs result in major socio-economic impacts including widespread floods and landslides; for example, western Japan heavy rainfall in July 2018 killed more than 200 people. Using results of high-resolution atmospheric model ensemble simulations, we examine projected future change in summertime AR frequency over East Asia. Different sea surface temperature (SST) warming patterns derived from six atmosphere- ocean coupled model simulations were assumed to represent uncertainty in future SST projections. The rate of increase in the frequency of landfalling ARs over summertime East Asia is on average 0.9% K-1 and is dependent on SST warming patterns. Stronger warming over the North Indian Ocean and South China Sea or weaker warming over the tropical central Pacific produce more frequent landfalling ARs over East Asia. These patterns are similar to the co-variability of SST, atmospheric circulation, and ARs over the western North Pacific found on the interannual time scale. The results of this study suggest that the natural disaster risk related to landfalling ARs should increase over East Asia under global warming and SSTs over the Indo-Pacific region holds the key for a quantitative projection.

Kamae, Y, Ogura T, Watanabe M, Xie SP, Ueda H.  2016.  Robust cloud feedback over tropical land in a warming climate. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres. 121:2593-2609.   10.1002/2015jd024525   AbstractWebsite

Cloud-related radiative perturbations over land in a warming climate are of importance for human health, ecosystem, agriculture, and industry via solar radiation availability and local warming amplification. However, robustness and physical mechanisms responsible for the land cloud feedback were not examined sufficiently because of the limited contribution to uncertainty in global climate sensitivity. Here we show that cloud feedback in general circulation models over tropical land is robust, positive, and is relevant to atmospheric circulation change and thermodynamic constraint associated with water vapor availability. In a warming climate, spatial variations in tropospheric warming associated with climatological circulation pattern result in a general weakening of tropical circulation and a dynamic reduction of land cloud during summer monsoon season. Limited increase in availability of water vapor also reduces the land cloud. The reduction of land cloud depends on global-scale oceanic warming and is not sensitive to regional warming patterns. The robust positive feedback can contribute to the warming amplification and drying over tropical land in the future.

Kamae, Y, Mei W, Xie SP.  2017.  Climatological relationship between warm season atmospheric rivers and heavy rainfall over East Asia. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. 95:411-431.   10.2151/jmsj.2017-027   AbstractWebsite

Eddy transport of atmospheric,ater vapor from the tropics is important for rainfall and related natural disasters in the middle latitudes. Atmospheric rivers (ARs), intense moisture plumes that are typically associated with extratropical cyclones, often produce heavy precipitation upon encountering topography on the west coasts of mid-latitude North America and Europe. ARs also occur over the northwestern Pacific and sometimes cause floods and landslides over East Asia, but the climatological relationship between ARs and heavy rainfall in this region remains unclear. Here we evaluate the contribution of ARs to the hydrological cycle over East Asia using high-resolution daily rainfall observations and an atmospheric reanalysis during 1958-2007. Despite their low occurrence, ARs account for 14-44 % of the total rainfall and 20-90 % of extreme heavy-rainfall events during spring, summer, and autumn. AR-related extreme rainfall is especially pronounced over western-to-southeastern slopes of terrains over the Korean Peninsula and Japan, owing to strong orographic effects and a stable direction of low-level moisture flows. A strong relationship between warm-season AR heavy rainfall and preceding-winter El Nino is identified since the 1970s, suggesting the potential of predicting heavy-rainfall risk over Korea and Japan at seasonal leads.

Kamae, Y, Mei W, Xie SP, Naoi M, Ueda H.  2017.  Atmospheric Rivers over the Northwestern Pacific: Climatology and Interannual Variability. Journal of Climate. 30:5605-5619.   10.1175/jcli-d-16-0875.1   AbstractWebsite

Atmospheric rivers (ARs), conduits of intense water vapor transport in the midlatitudes, are critically important for water resources and heavy rainfall events over the west coast of North America, Europe, and Africa. ARs are also frequently observed over the northwestern Pacific (NWP) during boreal summer but have not been studied comprehensively. Here the climatology, seasonal variation, interannual variability, and predictability of NWPARs (NWPARs) are examined by using a large ensemble, high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulation and a global atmospheric reanalysis. The AGCM captures general characteristics of climatology and variability compared to the reanalysis, suggesting a strong sea surface temperature (SST) effect on NWPARs. The summertime NWPAR occurrences are tightly related to El Ni (n) over tildeo-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the preceding winter through Indo-western Pacific Ocean capacitor (IPOC) effects. An enhanced East Asian summer monsoon and a low-level anticyclonic anomaly over the tropical western North Pacific in the post-El Ni (n) over tildeo summer reinforce low-level water vapor transport from the tropics with increased occurrence of NWPARs. The strong coupling with ENSO and IPOC indicates a high predictability of anomalous summertime NWPAR activity.

Kang, SM, Shin Y, Xie S-P.  2018.  Extratropical forcing and tropical rainfall distribution: energetics framework and ocean Ekman advection. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. 1:2.   10.1038/s41612-017-0004-6   Abstract

Intense tropical rainfall occurs in a narrow belt near the equator, called the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ). In the past decade, the atmospheric energy budget has been used to explain changes in the zonal-mean ITCZ position. The energetics framework provides a mechanism for extratropics-to-tropics teleconnections, which have been postulated from paleoclimate records. In atmosphere models coupled with a motionless slab ocean, the ITCZ shifts toward the warmed hemisphere in order for the Hadley circulation to transport energy toward the colder hemisphere. However, recent studies using fully coupled models show that tropical rainfall can be rather insensitive to extratropical forcing when ocean dynamics is included. Here, we explore the effect of meridional Ekman heat advection while neglecting the upwelling effect on the ITCZ response to prescribed extratropical thermal forcing. The tropical component of Ekman advection is a negative feedback that partially compensates the prescribed forcing, whereas the extratropical component is a positive feedback that amplifies the prescribed forcing. Overall, the tropical negative feedback dominates over the extratropical positive feedback. Thus, including Ekman advection reduces the need for atmospheric energy transport, dampening the ITCZ response. We propose to build a hierarchy of ocean models to systematically explore the full dynamical response of the coupled climate system.

Kang, SM, Held IM, Xie SP.  2014.  Contrasting the tropical responses to zonally asymmetric extratropical and tropical thermal forcing. Climate Dynamics. 42:2033-2043.   10.1007/s00382-013-1863-0   AbstractWebsite

The mechanism is investigated by which extratropical thermal forcing with a finite zonal extent produces global impact. The goal is to understand the near-global response to a weakened Atlantic meridional overturning circulation suggested by paleoclimate data and modeling studies. An atmospheric model coupled to an aquaplanet slab mixed layer ocean, in which the unperturbed climate is zonally symmetric, is perturbed by prescribing cooling of the mixed layer in the Northern Hemisphere and heating of equal magnitude in the Southern Hemisphere, over some finite range of longitudes. In the case of heating/cooling confined to the extratropics, the zonally asymmetric forcing is homogenized by midlatitude westerlies and extratropical eddies before passing on to the tropics, inducing a zonally symmetric tropical response. In addition, the zonal mean responses vary little as the zonal extent of the forced region is changed, holding the zonal mean heating fixed, implying little impact of stationary eddies on the zonal mean. In contrast, when the heating/cooling is confined to the tropics, the zonally asymmetric forcing produces a highly localized response with slight westward extension, due to advection by mean easterly trade winds. Regardless of the forcing location, neither the spatial structure nor the zonal mean responses are strongly affected by wind-evaporation-sea surface temperature feedback.

Kang, SM, Xie SP.  2014.  Dependence of climate response on meridional structure of external thermal forcing. Journal of Climate. 27:5593-5600.   10.1175/jcli-d-13-00622.1   AbstractWebsite

This study shows that the magnitude of global surface warming greatly depends on the meridional distribution of surface thermal forcing. An atmospheric model coupled to an aquaplanet slab mixed layer ocean is perturbed by prescribing heating to the ocean mixed layer. The heating is distributed uniformly globally or confined to narrow tropical or polar bands, and the amplitude is adjusted to ensure that the global mean remains the same for all cases. Since the tropical temperature is close to a moist adiabat, the prescribed heating leads to a maximized warming near the tropopause, whereas the polar warming is trapped near the surface because of strong atmospheric stability. Hence, the surface warming is more effectively damped by radiation in the tropics than in the polar region. As a result, the global surface temperature increase is weak (strong) when the given amount of heating is confined to the tropical (polar) band. The degree of this contrast is shown to depend on water vapor- and cloud-radiative feedbacks that alter the effective strength of prescribed thermal forcing.

Kilpatrick, T, Xie SP, Nasuno T.  2017.  Diurnal Convection-Wind Coupling in the Bay of Bengal. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres. 122:9705-9720.   10.1002/2017jd027271   AbstractWebsite

Satellite observations of infrared brightness temperature and rainfall have shown offshore propagation of diurnal rainfall signals in some coastal areas of the tropics, suggesting that diurnal rainfall is coupled to land-sea breeze circulations. Here we utilize satellite observations of surface winds and rainfall to show the offshore copropagation of land breeze and diurnal rainfall signals for 300-400 km from the east coast of India into the Bay of Bengal. The wind observations are from the 2003 Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT)-SeaWinds "tandem mission" and from 17 years of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI); the rainfall observations are from the TRMM 3B42 product and from TMI. The surface wind convergence maximum leads the rainfall maximum by 1-2 h in the western part of the bay, implying that the land breeze forces the diurnal cycle of rainfall. The phase speed of the offshore propagation is approximately 18 m s(-1), consistent with a deep hydrostatic gravity wave forced by diurnal heating over India. Comparisons with a cloud system-resolving atmospheric model and the ERA-Interim reanalysis indicate that the models realistically simulate the surface land breeze but greatly underestimate the amplitude of the rainfall diurnal cycle. The satellite observations presented in this study therefore provide a benchmark for model representation of this important atmosphere-ocean-land surface interaction. Plain Language Summary Satellite rainfall observations show a strong diurnal cycle in the Bay of Bengal during the summer monsoon. Here for the first time we utilize concurrent satellite observations of surface winds and rainfall to demonstrate the interaction between the land-sea breeze, forced by the diurnal cycle of solar heating over India, and diurnal rainfall over the Bay of Bengal. The observations are consistent with the land breeze acting as a forcing mechanism for the diurnal cycle of rainfall over the bay and, therefore, illuminate an important atmosphere-ocean-land surface interaction that is poorly represented in many climate models.

Kilpatrick, TJ, Xie SP.  2016.  Circumventing rain-related errors in scatterometer wind observations. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres. 121:9422-9440.   10.1002/2016jd025105   AbstractWebsite

Satellite scatterometer observations of surface winds over the global oceans are critical for climate research and applications like weather forecasting. However, rain-related errors remain an important limitation, largely precluding satellite study of winds in rainy areas. Here we utilize a novel technique to compute divergence and curl from satellite observations of surface winds and surface wind stress in rainy areas. This technique circumvents rain-related errors by computing line integrals around rainy patches, using valid wind vector observations that border the rainy patches. The area-averaged divergence and wind stress curl inside each rainy patch are recovered via the divergence and curl theorems. We process the 10 year Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) data set and show that the line-integral method brings the QuikSCAT winds into better agreement with an atmospheric reanalysis, largely removing both the "divergence bias" and "anticyclonic curl bias" in rainy areas noted in previous studies. The corrected QuikSCAT wind stress curl reduces the North Pacific midlatitude Sverdrup transport by 20-30%. We test several methods of computing divergence and curl on winds from an atmospheric model simulation and show that the line-integral method has the smallest errors. We anticipate that scatterometer winds processed with the line-integral method will improve ocean model simulations and help illuminate the coupling between atmospheric convection and circulation.

Kilpatrick, T, Xie S-P, Miller AJ, Schneider N.  2018.  Satellite observations of enhanced chlorophyll variability in the Southern California Bight. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans. 123:7550-7563.   10.1029/2018JC014248   Abstract

Satellite observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer and Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor reveal a “tongue” of elevated near-surface chlorophyll that extends into the Southern California Bight from Point Conception. A local chlorophyll maximum at the western edge of the bight, near the Santa Rosa Ridge, indicates that the chlorophyll is not solely due to advection from Point Conception but is enhanced by local upwelling. Chlorophyll in the bight peaks in May and June, in phase with the seasonal cycle of wind stress curl. The spatial structure and seasonal variability suggest that the local chlorophyll maximum is due to a combination of bathymetric influence from the Santa Rosa Ridge and orographic influence from the coastline bend at Point Conception, which causes sharp wind stress curl in the bight. High-resolution glider observations show thermocline doming in May–June, in support of the local upwelling effect. Despite the evidence for local wind stress curl-forced upwelling in the bight, we cannot rule out alternative mechanisms for the local chlorophyll maximum, such as iron supply from the ridge. Covariability between chlorophyll, surface wind stress, and sea surface temperature (SST) indicates that nonseasonal chlorophyll variability in the bight is closely related to SST, but the spatial patterns of SST influence vary by time scale: Subannual chlorophyll variability is linked to local wind-forced upwelling, while interannual chlorophyll variability is linked to large-scale SST variations over the northeast Pacific. This suggests a greater role for nonlocal processes in the bight's low-frequency chlorophyll variability.

Kilpatrick, TJ, Xie S-P.  2015.  ASCAT observations of downdrafts from mesoscale convective systems. Geophysical Research Letters.   10.1002/2015GL063025   AbstractWebsite

Downdrafts of air cooled by evaporating raindrops are an essential component of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Here we use surface wind observations from the Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT) to identify MCS downdrafts over the western equatorial Pacific Ocean as regions of horizontal wind divergence exceeding 10-4 s-1. More than 1300 downdrafts are identified over the observation period (2009–2014). The downdraft signal in the surface winds is validated with satellite measurements of brightness temperature and rainfall rate, and surface buoy measurements of air temperature; composite analysis with these measurements indicates ASCAT detects downdrafts that lag the peak convection by 8–12 h. While ASCAT resolves mesoscale downdrafts in regions of light rain, a composite against buoy air temperature indicates that ASCAT fails to resolve the stronger convective-scale downdrafts associated with heavy rainfall at squall fronts. Nevertheless, the global observations by the satellite scatterometer open a new avenue for studying MCSs.

Kobashi, F, Xie SP, Iwasaka N, Sakamoto TT.  2008.  Deep Atmospheric Response to the North Pacific Oceanic Subtropical Front in Spring. Journal of Climate. 21:5960-5975.   10.1175/2008jcli2311.1   Abstract
Kobashi, F, Mitsudera H, Xie SP.  2006.  Three subtropical fronts in the North Pacific: Observational evidence for mode water-induced subsurface frontogenesis. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans. 111   10.1029/2006jc003479   Abstract
Kosaka, Y, Chowdary JS, Xie SP, Min YM, Lee JY.  2012.  Limitations of Seasonal Predictability for Summer Climate over East Asia and the Northwestern Pacific. Journal of Climate. 25:7574-7589.   10.1175/jcli-d-12-00009.-1   Abstract

Predictability of summer climate anomalies over East Asia and the northwestern Pacific is investigated using observations and a multimodel hindcast ensemble initialized on 1 May for the recent 20-30 yr. Summertime East Asia is under the influence of the northwestern Pacific subtropical high (PASH). The Pacific-Japan (PJ) teleconnection pattern, a meridional dipole of sea level pressure variability, affects the northwestern PASH. The forecast models generally capture the association of the PJ pattern with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).|The Silk Road pattern, a wave train along the summer Asian jet, is another dominant teleconnection that influences the northwestern PASH and East Asia. In contrast to the PJ pattern, observational analysis reveals a lack of correlations between the Silk Road pattern and ENSO. Coupled models cannot predict the temporal phase of the Silk Road pattern, despite their ability to reproduce its spatial structure as the leading mode of atmospheric internal variability. Thus, the pattern is rather unpredictable at monthly to seasonal lead, limiting the seasonal predictability for summer in East Asia.|The anomalous summer of 2010 in East Asia is a case in point, illustrating the interference by the Silk Road pattern. Canonical anomalies associated with a decayed El Nino and developing La Nina would have the PJ pattern bring a cold summer to East Asia in 2010. In reality, the Silk Road pattern overwhelmed this tendency, bringing a record-breaking hot summer instead. A dynamical model experiment indicates that European blocking was instrumental in triggering the Silk Road pattern in the 2010 summer.

Kosaka, Y, Xie SP, Lau NC, Vecchi GA.  2013.  Origin of seasonal predictability for summer climate over the Northwestern Pacific. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 110:7574-7579.   10.1073/pnas.1215582110   AbstractWebsite

Summer climate in the Northwestern Pacific (NWP) displays large year-to-year variability, affecting densely populated Southeast and East Asia by impacting precipitation, temperature, and tropical cyclones. The Pacific-Japan (PJ) teleconnection pattern provides a crucial link of high predictability from the tropics to East Asia. Using coupled climate model experiments, we show that the PJ pattern is the atmospheric manifestation of an air-sea coupled mode spanning the Indo-NWP warm pool. The PJ pattern forces the Indian Ocean (IO) via a westward propagating atmospheric Rossby wave. In response, IO sea surface temperature feeds back and reinforces the PJ pattern via a tropospheric Kelvin wave. Ocean coupling increases both the amplitude and temporal persistence of the PJ pattern. Cross-correlation of ocean-atmospheric anomalies confirms the coupled nature of this PJIO mode. The ocean-atmosphere feedback explains why the last echoes of El Nino-Southern Oscillation are found in the IO-NWP in the form of the PJIO mode. We demonstrate that the PJIO mode is indeed highly predictable; a characteristic that can enable benefits to society.

Kosaka, Y, Xie S-P.  2013.  Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling. Nature. advance online publication: Nature Publishing Group, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited. All Rights Reserved.   10.1038/nature12534   AbstractWebsite

Despite the continued increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the annual-mean global temperature has not risen in the twenty-first century1, 2, challenging the prevailing view that anthropogenic forcing causes climate warming. Various mechanisms have been proposed for this hiatus in global warming3, 4, 5, 6, but their relative importance has not been quantified, hampering observational estimates of climate sensitivity. Here we show that accounting for recent cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific reconciles climate simulations and observations. We present a novel method of uncovering mechanisms for global temperature change by prescribing, in addition to radiative forcing, the observed history of sea surface temperature over the central to eastern tropical Pacific in a climate model. Although the surface temperature prescription is limited to only 8.2% of the global surface, our model reproduces the annual-mean global temperature remarkably well with correlation coefficient r = 0.97 for 1970–2012 (which includes the current hiatus and a period of accelerated global warming). Moreover, our simulation captures major seasonal and regional characteristics of the hiatus, including the intensified Walker circulation, the winter cooling in northwestern North America and the prolonged drought in the southern USA. Our results show that the current hiatus is part of natural climate variability, tied specifically to a La-Niña-like decadal cooling. Although similar decadal hiatus events may occur in the future, the multi-decadal warming trend is very likely to continue with greenhouse gas increase.

Kosaka, Y, Xie S-P, Nakamura H.  2011.  Dynamics of Interannual Variability in Summer Precipitation over East Asia. Journal of Climate. 24:5435-5453.   10.1175/2011jcli4099.1   Abstract
Kosaka, Y, Xie S-P.  2016.  The tropical Pacific as a key pacemaker of the variable rates of global warming. Nature Geosci. advance online publication: Nature Publishing Group   10.1038/ngeo2770   Abstract

Global mean surface temperature change over the past 120 years resembles a rising staircase: the overall warming trend was interrupted by the mid-twentieth-century big hiatus and the warming slowdown since about 1998. The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation has been implicated in modulations of global mean surface temperatures, but which part of the mode drives the variability in warming rates is unclear. Here we present a successful simulation of the global warming staircase since 1900 with a global ocean–atmosphere coupled model where tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures are forced to follow the observed evolution. Without prescribed tropical Pacific variability, the same model, on average, produces a continual warming trend that accelerates after the 1960s. We identify four events where the tropical Pacific decadal cooling markedly slowed down the warming trend. Matching the observed spatial and seasonal fingerprints we identify the tropical Pacific as a key pacemaker of the warming staircase, with radiative forcing driving the overall warming trend. Specifically, tropical Pacific variability amplifies the first warming epoch of the 1910s–1940s and determines the timing when the big hiatus starts and ends. Our method of removing internal variability from the observed record can be used for real-time monitoring of anthropogenic warming.

Kubokawa, A, Xie SP.  2002.  Steady response of a ventilated thermocline to enhanced Ekman pumping. Journal of Oceanography. 58:565-575. Abstract
Kubota, H, Kosaka Y, Xie SP.  2016.  A 117-year long index of the Pacific-Japan pattern with application to interdecadal variability. International Journal of Climatology. 36:1575-1589.   10.1002/joc.4441   AbstractWebsite

The Pacific-Japan (PJ) pattern affects interannual variability in the East Asian and western North Pacific (WNP) summer monsoons. This teleconnection pattern is characterized by a meridional dipole of anomalous circulation and precipitation between the tropical WNP and the midlatitudes. This study develops a long index of the PJ pattern using station-based atmospheric pressure data to track the PJ variability from 1897 to 2013. This index is correlated with a wide array of climate variables including air temperature, precipitation, Yangtze River flow, Japanese rice yield and the occurrence of tropical cyclones over the WNP (especially those that make landfall on the Chinese and Korean coast). For the recent three decades, the PJ index reproduces well-known correlations with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the preceding boreal winter and Indian Ocean temperature in the concurrent summer. For the 117-year period, this ENSO-PJ relationship varies on interdecadal time scales, with low correlations in the 1920s and from the 1940s to 1970s, and recurrences of significant correlations at the beginning of the 20th century and the 1930s. In accordance with the modulation, the magnitude and regional climate effect of the PJ variability have changed. These results highlight the importance of interdecadal modulations of climate anomalies in the summer WNP and the need of long-term observations to study such modulations.

Kuwano-Yoshida, A, Minobe S, Xie S-P.  2010.  Precipitation Response to the Gulf Stream in an Atmospheric GCM. Journal of Climate. 23:3676-3698.   10.1175/2010jcli3261.1   Abstract
Kuwano-Yoshida, A, Taguchi B, Xie SP.  2014.  Baiu rainband termination in atmospheric and coupled atmosphere-ocean models. Journal of Climate. 26:10111-10124.   10.1175/jcli-d-13-00231.1   AbstractWebsite

The baiu rainband is a summer rainband stretching from eastern China through Japan toward the northwestern Pacific. The climatological termination of the baiu rainband is investigated using the Japanese 25-yr Reanalysis (JRA-25), a stand-alone atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) forced with observed sea surface temperature (SST) and an atmosphere-ocean GCM (AOGCM). The baiu rainband over the North Pacific abruptly shifts northward and weakens substantially in early July in the atmospheric GCM (AGCM), too early compared to observations (late July). The midtroposphere westerly jet and its thermal advection explain this meridional shift of the baiu rainband, but the ocean surface evaporation modulates the precipitation intensity. In AGCM, deep convection in the subtropical northwestern Pacific sets in prematurely, displacing the westerly jet northward over the cold ocean surface earlier than in observations. The suppressed surface evaporation over the cold ocean suppresses precipitation even though the midtropospheric warm advection and vertically integrated moisture convergence are similar to those before the westerly jet's northward shift. As a result, the baiu rainband abruptly weakens after the northward shift in JRA-25 and AGCM. In AOGCM, cold SST biases in the subtropics inhibit deep convection, delaying the poleward excursion of the westerly jet. As a result, the upward motion induced by both the strong westerly jet and the rainband persist over the northwestern Pacific through summer in the AOGCM. The results indicate that the westerly jet and the ocean evaporation underneath are important for the baiu rainband, the latter suggesting an oceanic effect on this important phenomenon.