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Dai, A, Fyfe JC, Xie S-P, Dai X.  2015.  Decadal modulation of global surface temperature by internal climate variability. Nature Clim. Change. advance online publication: Nature Publishing Group   10.1038/nclimate2605   Abstract

Despite a steady increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs), global-mean surface temperature (T) has shown no discernible warming since about 2000, in sharp contrast to model simulations, which on average project strong warming1, 2, 3. The recent slowdown in observed surface warming has been attributed to decadal cooling in the tropical Pacific1, 4, 5, intensifying trade winds5, changes in El Niño activity6, 7, increasing volcanic activity8, 9, 10 and decreasing solar irradiance7. Earlier periods of arrested warming have been observed but received much less attention than the recent period, and their causes are poorly understood. Here we analyse observed and model-simulated global T fields to quantify the contributions of internal climate variability (ICV) to decadal changes in global-mean T since 1920. We show that the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) has been associated with large T anomalies over both ocean and land. Combined with another leading mode of ICV, the IPO explains most of the difference between observed and model-simulated rates of decadal change in global-mean T since 1920, and particularly over the so-called ‘hiatus’ period since about 2000. We conclude that ICV, mainly through the IPO, was largely responsible for the recent slowdown, as well as for earlier slowdowns and accelerations in global-mean T since 1920, with preferred spatial patterns different from those associated with GHG-induced warming or aerosol-induced cooling. Recent history suggests that the IPO could reverse course and lead to accelerated global warming in the coming decades.

Deser, C, Alexander MA, Xie S-P, Phillips AS.  2010.  Sea Surface Temperature Variability: Patterns and Mechanisms. Annual Review of Marine Science. 2:115-143.   10.1146/annurev-marine-120408-151453   Abstract
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Diao, Y, Xie SP, Luo DH.  2015.  Asymmetry of winter European surface air temperature extremes and the North Atlantic Oscillation. Journal of Climate. 28:517-530.   10.1175/jcli-d-13-00642.1   AbstractWebsite

Interannual variations of winter warm and cold extremes in Europe are investigated. It is found that the variations are closely connected to the phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The leading EOF of the winter cold (warm) surface air temperature (SAT) extreme frequency shows an enhanced occurrence over western (eastern) Europe. The SAT probability distribution function of the cold extreme winter exhibits both a decrease of the mean SAT and a marked increase in SAT variance, whereas it shows only a shift of the mean SAT to the warmer side for extreme warm winters. This study reveals an asymmetry in location between the cold and warm extremes, caused by the NAO modulations of blocking events and other submonthly variations. Winters with frequent cold extremes are mainly accompanied by the eastern Atlantic blocking. The circulation causes not only marked local cooling but also increased SAT gradient, resulting in both enhanced SAT variance and increased occurrence of cold extremes. By contrast, winters with frequent warm extremes are associated with the northeast-southwest tilted positive NAO pattern. The warm advection by the submonthly perturbations is responsible for the development of warm extremes. The reduced SAT gradient due to enhanced warm advection weakens SAT variance over northern Europe. Thus, the cold extremes are larger in terms of deviations from the monthly mean than the warm extremes.

Du, Y, Xie SP, Yang YL, Zheng XT, Liu L, Huang G.  2013.  Indian Ocean Variability in the CMIP5 Multimodel Ensemble: The Basin Mode. Journal of Climate. 26:7240-7266.   10.1175/jcli-d-12-00678.1   AbstractWebsite

This study evaluates the simulation of the Indian Ocean Basin (IOB) mode and relevant physical processes in models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Historical runs from 20 CMIP5 models are available for the analysis. They reproduce the IOB mode and its close relationship to El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Half of the models capture key IOB processes: a downwelling oceanic Rossby wave in the southern tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) precedes the IOB development in boreal fall and triggers an antisymmetric wind anomaly pattern across the equator in the following spring. The anomalous wind pattern induces a second warming in the north Indian Ocean (NIO) through summer and sustains anticyclonic wind anomalies in the northwest Pacific by radiating a warm tropospheric Kelvin wave. The second warming in the NIO is indicative of ocean-atmosphere interaction in the interior TIO. More than half of the models display a double peak in NIO warming, as observed following El Nino, while the rest show only one winter peak. The intermodel diversity in the characteristics of the IOB mode seems related to the thermocline adjustment in the south TIO to ENSO-induced wind variations. Almost all the models show multidecadal variations in IOB variance, possibly modulated by ENSO.

Du, Y, Xie SP, Huang G, Hu KM.  2009.  Role of Air-Sea Interaction in the Long Persistence of El Nino-Induced North Indian Ocean Warming. Journal of Climate. 22:2023-2038.   10.1175/2008jcli2590.1   Abstract
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