Publications

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Book
Somerville, R, Lauder P, Rogo R.  1993.  Change on Planet Earth. : UCSD Extension, University of California, San Diego AbstractWebsite
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Shen, SSP, Somerville RCJ.  2019.  Climate mathematics : theory and applications. , Cambridge ; New York, NY: Cambridge University Press Abstract

This unique text provides a thorough, yet accessible, grounding in the mathematics, statistics, and programming that students need to master for coursework and research in climate science, meteorology, and oceanography. Assuming only high school mathematics, it presents carefully selected concepts and techniques in linear algebra, statistics, computing, calculus and differential equations within the context of real climate science examples. Computational techniques are integrated to demonstrate how to visualize, analyze, and apply climate data, with R code featured in the book and both R and Python code available online. Exercises are provided at the end of each chapter with selected solutions available to students to aid self-study and further solutions provided online for instructors only. Additional online supplements to aid classroom teaching include datasets, images, and animations. Guidance is provided on how the book can support a variety of courses at different levels, making it a highly flexible text for undergraduate and graduate students, as well as researchers and professional climate scientists who need to refresh or modernize their quantitative skills.

Allison, I, Bindoff NL, Bindschadler RA, Cox PM, de Noblet N, England MH, Francis JE, Gruber N, Haywood AM, Karoly DJ, Kaser G, Quéré LC, Lenton TM, Mann ME, McNeil BI, Pitman AJ, Rahmstorf S, Rignot E, Schellnhuber HJ, Schneider SH, Sherwood SC, Somerville RCJ, Steffen K, Steig EJ, Visbeck M, Weaver. AJ.  2011.  The Copenhagen Diagnosis: Updating the world on the latest climate science. :xiv,98p.., Burlington, MA: Elsevier Abstract
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Somerville, R.  1996.  The Forgiving Air : Understanding Environmental Change. :xiv,195p.., Berkeley, Calif.: University of California Press Abstract
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Somerville, R.  2008.  The Forgiving Air : Understanding Environmental Change, Second Edition. :202p.., Boston, Mass.: American Meteorological Society Abstract
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Engquist, BE, Osher S, Somerville RCJ.  1985.  Large-Scale Computations in Fluid Mechanics. Lectures in Applied Mathematics. :779.: American Mathematical Society AbstractWebsite
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Book Chapter
Walsh, J, Wuebbles D, Hayhoe K, Kossin JP, Kunkel K, Stephens GL, Thorne PD, Vose RS, Wehner B, Willis J, Anderson D, Kharin V, Knutson T, Landerer FW, Lenton TM, Kennedy JJ, Somerville R.  2014.  Appendix 3: Climate Science Supplement. Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment. ( Mellilo JM, Richmond T(TC), Yohe GW, Eds.).:735-789.: U.S. Global Change Research Program   10.7930/J0KS6PHH   Abstract

This appendix provides further information and discussion on climate science beyond that presented in Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate. Like the chapter, the appendix focuses on the observations, model simulations, and other analyses that explain what is happening to climate at the national and global scales, why these changes are occurring, and how climate is projected to change throughout this century. In the appendix, however, more information is provided on attribution, spatial and temporal detail, and physical mechanisms than could be covered within the length constraints of the main chapter.

Walsh, J, Wuebbles D, Hayhoe K, Kossin JP, Kunkel K, Stephens GL, Thorne PD, Vose RS, Wehner B, Willis J, Anderson D, Kharin V, Knutson T, Landerer FW, Lenton TM, Kennedy JJ, Somerville R.  2014.  Appendix 4: Frequently Asked Questions (Question E). Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment. ( Mellilo JM, Richmond T(TC), Yohe GW, Eds.).:790-820.: U.S. Global Change Research Program   10.7930/J0G15XS3   Abstract

E. Is it getting warmer at the same rate everywhere? Will the warming continue?Temperatures are not increasing at the same rate everywhere, because temperature changes in a given location depend on many factors. However, average global temperatures are projected to continue increasing throughout the remainder of this century due to heat-trapping gas emissions from human activities.

Walsh, J, Wuebbles D, Hayhoe K, Kossin JP, Kunkel K, Stephens GL, Thorne PD, Vose RS, Wehner B, Willis J, Anderson D, Doney S, Feeley R, Hennon PA, Kharin V, Knutson T, Landerer FW, Lenton TM, Kennedy JJ, Somerville R.  2014.  Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate. Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment. ( Mellilo JM, Richmond T(TC), Yohe GW, Eds.).:19-67.: U.S. Global Change Research Program   10.7930/J0KW5CXT   Abstract

This chapter summarizes how climate is changing, why it is changing, and what is projected for the future. While the focus is on changes in the United States, the need to provide context sometimes requires a broader geographical perspective. Additional geographic detail is presented in the regional chapters of this report. Further details on the topics covered by this chapter are provided in the Climate Science Supplement and Frequently Asked Questions Appendices.

Somerville, RCJ.  2019.  Chapter 8: Communicating Climate Change Science. Bending the Curve: Climate Change Solutions. ( Ramanathan V, Ed.).: Regents of the University of California.
Somerville, RCJ, Iacobellis SF.  1987.  Cloud-radiation interactions: Effects of cirrus optical thickness feedbacks. Short- and Medium-Range Numerical Weather Prediction. ( Matsuno T, Ed.).:177-185., [Tokyo]: Meteorological Society of Japan Abstract
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Somerville, R.  2011.  The co-evolution of climate models and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The development of atmospheric general circulation models : complexity, synthesis, and computation. ( Donner L, Schubert WH, Somerville R, Eds.).:225-252., Cambridge ; New York: Cambridge University Press Abstract

"Presenting a comprehensive discussion of general circulation models of the atmosphere, this book covers their historical and contemporary development, their societal context, and current efforts to integrate these models into wider earth-system models. Leading researchers provide unique perspectives on the scientific breakthroughs, overarching themes, critical applications, and future prospects for atmospheric general circulation models. Key interdisciplinary links to other subject areas such as chemistry, oceanography and ecology are also highlighted. This book is a core reference for academic researchers and professionals involved in atmospheric physics, meteorology and climate science, and can be used as a resource for graduate-level courses in climate modeling and numerical weather prediction. Given the critical role that atmospheric general circulation models are playing in the intense public discourse on climate change, it is also a valuable resource for policy makers and all those concerned with the scientific basis for the ongoing public-policy debate"--"The aim of this volume is to describe the development of atmospheric general circulation models. We are motivated to do so by the central and essential role of these models in understanding, simulating, and predicting the atmosphere on a wide range of time scales. While atmospheric general circulation models are an important basis for many societal decisions, from responses to changing weather to deliberations on responding to anthropogenic climate change, the scientific basis for these models, and how they have come about and continue to develop, are not widely known. Our objective in editing this volume is to provide a perspective on these matters"--

Lane, DE, Somerville RCJ, Iacobellis S.  2001.  Evaluation of a Stochastic Radiative Transfer Model Using Ground-based Measurements. IRS 2000: Current Problems in Atmospheric Radiation : Proceedings of the International Radiation Symposium, St. Petersberg, Russia, 24-29 July 2000. ( Smith WL, Timofeyev YM, Eds.).:245-248.: A Deepak Publishing Abstract
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Jouzel, J, Somerville RCJ.  2008.  The global consensus and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Facing climate change together. ( Gautier C, Fellous JL, Eds.).:12-29., Cambridge, UK; New York: Cambridge University Press Abstract

"This volume brings together scientists from the US and Europe to review the state-of-the-art in climate change science; all of them have extensive experience with climate research and international collaboration. scientific jargon has been minimized for readers from different backgrounds.""This book is written for scientists and students in a wide range of fields, such as atmospheric science, physics, chemistry, biology, geography, geology, and socioeconomics, who are not necessarily specialists in climatology, but are seeking an accessible and broad review of climate change issues."--BOOK JACKET.

Le Treut, H, Somerville RCJ, Cubasch U, Ding Y, Mauritzen C, Mokssit A, Peterson T, Prather M.  2007.  Historical Overview of Climate Change. Climate change 2007 : the physical science basis : contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. ( Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt K, Tignor M, Miller H, Eds.)., Cambridge; New York: Cambridge University Press Abstract
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Somerville, RCJ, Jouzel J.  2007.  Le groupe intergouvernemental d'experts sur l'evolution du climat: le consensus a l'échelle planétaire. Comprendre le changement climatique. ( André JC, Fellous JL, Gautier C, Eds.).:27-44., Paris: O. Jacob Abstract
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Somerville, RCJ.  2012.  Science, Politics, and Public Perceptions of Climate Change. Climate Change. ( Berger A, Mesinger F, Sijacki D, Eds.).:3-17.: Springer Vienna   10.1007/978-3-7091-0973-1_1   Abstract

Recent research has demonstrated that climate change continues to occur, and in several aspects, the magnitude and rapidity of observed changes frequently exceed the estimates of earlier projections, such as those published in 2007 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its Fourth Assessment Report. Measurements show that the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are losing mass and contributing to sea-level rise. Arctic sea ice has melted more rapidly than climate models had predicted. Global sea-level rise may exceed 1 m by 2100, with a rise of up to 2 m considered possible. Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are increasing rather than decreasing. This chapter summarizes recent research findings and notes that many countries have agreed on the aspirational goal of limiting global warming to 2°C above nineteenth-century “preindustrial” temperatures, in order to have a reasonable chance for avoiding dangerous human-caused climate change. Setting such a goal is a political decision. However, science shows that achieving this goal requires that global greenhouse gas emissions must peak within the next decade and then decline rapidly. Although the expert scientific community is in wide agreement on the basic results of climate change science, much confusion persists among the general public and politicians in many countries. To date, little progress has been made toward reducing global emissions.

Iacobellis, S, Somerville RCJ, Lane DE.  2001.  SCM Sensitivity to Microphysics, Radiation, and Convection Algorithms. IRS 2000: Current Problems in Atmospheric Radiation : Proceedings of the International Radiation Symposium, St. Petersberg, Russia, 24-29 July 2000. ( Smith WL, Timofeyev YM, Eds.).:1287-1290.: A Deepak Publishing Abstract
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IPCC.  2007.  Summary for Policymakers. Climate change 2007 : the physical science basis : contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. ( Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt K, Tignor M, Miller H, Eds.)., Cambridge; New York: Cambridge University Press Abstract
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Solomon, S, Qin D, Manning M, Alley RB, Berntsen TK, Bindoff N, Chen Z, Chidthaisong A, Gregory JM, Hegeri GC, Heimann M, Hewitson B, Hoskins BJ, Joos F, Jouzel J, Kattsov V, Lohmann U, Matsuno T, Molina M, Nicholls N, Overpeck JT, Raga G, Ramaswamy V, Ren J, Rusticucci M, Somerville RCJ, Stocker TF, Whetton P, Wood RA, Wratt D.  2007.  Technical Summary. Climate change 2007 : the physical science basis : contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. ( Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt K, Tignor M, Miller H, Eds.)., Cambridge; New York: Cambridge University Press Abstract
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Somerville, RCJ.  2000.  Using single-column models to improve cloud-radiation parameterizations. General circulation model development. ( Randall DA, Ed.).:641-657., San Diego: Academic Press Abstract

General Circulation Models (GCMs) are rapidly assuming widespread use as powerful tools for predicting global events on time scales of months to decades, such as the onset of EL Nino, monsoons, soil moisture saturation indices, global warming estimates, and even snowfall predictions. While GCMs have been praised for helping to foretell the current El Nino and its impact on droughts in Indonesia, its full power is only now being recognized by international scientists and governments who seek to link GCMs to help them estimate fish harvests, risk of floods, landslides, and even forest fires. Scientists in oceanography, hydrology, meteorology, and climatology and civil, ocean, and geological engineers perceive a need for a reference on GCM design. In this compilation of information by an internationally recognized group of experts, Professor Randall brings together the knowledge base of the forerunners in theoretical and applied frontiers of GCM development. General Circulation Model Development focuses on the past, present, and future design of numerical methods for general circulation modeling, as well as the physical parameterizations required for their proper implementation. Additional chapters on climate simulation and other applications provide illustrative examples of state-of-the-art GCM design. Key Features * Foreword by Norman Phillips * Authoritative overviews of current issues and ideas on global circulation modeling by leading experts * Retrospective and forward-looking chapters by Akio Arakawa of UCLA * Historical perspectives on the early years of general circulation modeling * Indispensable reference for researchers and graduate students.

Conference Paper
Chertock, B, Iacobellis S, Somerville C.  1987.  Remote sensing studies of oceanic cloud-radiation feedbacks. Atmospheric radiation progress and prospects (Proceedings of the Beijing International Radiation Symposium, August 26-30, 1986). ( Liou K, Chou H, Eds.).:508-514., Beijing, China: Science Press and American Meteorological Society Abstract
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Journal Article
Isakari, SM, Somerville RCJ.  1989.  Accurate numerical solutions for Daisyworld. Tellus Series B-Chemical and Physical Meteorology. 41:478-482.   10.1111/j.1600-0889.1989.tb00324.x   AbstractWebsite

The numerical solutions of the Daisyworld model of Watson and Lovelock contain significant quantitative errors. We give accurate numerical solutions for the same cases. We also show how the errors may have been caused by failure to enforce computational constraints such as strict tests of steadiness. The errors which we find do not qualitatively alter the main conclusions of Watson and Lovelock, but they illustrate a peril. The Daisyworld model is an example of a mathematical system which is too idealized to be compared with observations but too complex to be solved analytically. Such systems can be probed only by numerical simulations, so it is crucial that the computations be trustworthy.

Barnett, TP, Somerville RCJ.  1983.  Advances in Short-Term Climate Prediction. Reviews of Geophysics. 21:1096-1102.   10.1029/RG021i005p01096   AbstractWebsite

Dynamical and several empirical and statistical approaches to short term climate prediction are surveyed. General circulation models have displayed considerable potential for this application. Physical/synoptic and purely statistical methods have been intensively developed and tested in recent years. Important problems have been recognized in areas such as predictability, forecast verification and evaluation, and combining complementary approaches to prediction.

Pritchard, MS, Somerville RCJ.  2009.  Assessing the Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation in a Multi-Scale Climate Model. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems. 1   10.3894/james.2009.1.12   AbstractWebsite

A promising result that has emerged from the new Multi-scale Modeling Framework (MMF) approach to atmospheric modeling is a global improvement in the daily timing of peak precipitation over the continents, which is suggestive of improved moist dynamics at diurnal timescales overall. We scrutinize the simulated seasonal composite diurnal cycle of precipitation in an MMF developed by the Center for Multiscale Modeling of Atmospheric Processes (CMMAP) using a comprehensive suite of diurnal cycle diagnostics including traditional harmonic analysis, and non-traditional diagnostics such as the broadness of the peak precipitation in the mean summer day, reduced dimension transect analysis, and animations of the full spatial and temporal variability of the composite mean summer day. Precipitation in the MMF is evaluated against multi-satellite merged satellite data and a control simulation with a climate model that employs conventional cloud and boundary layer parameterizations. Our analysis highlights several improved features of the diurnal cycle of precipitation in the multi-scale climate model: It is less sinusoidal over the most energetic diurnal rainfall regimes, more horizontally inhomogeneous within continents and oceans, and more faithful to observed structural transitions in the composite diurnal cycle chronology straddling coastlines than the conventional climate model. A regional focus on North America links a seasonal summer dry bias over the continental United States in the CMMAP MMF at T42 resolution to its inability to capture diurnally propagating precipitation signals associated with organized convection in the lee of the Rockies. The chronology of precipitation events elsewhere in the vicinity of North America is improved in the MMF, especially over sea breeze circulation regions along the eastern seaboard and the Gulf of Mexico, as well as over the entirety of the Gulf Stream. Comparison of the convective heating and moistening suggests that improvements in the MMF coastal ocean diurnal rainfall may be a result of a local moist dynamical response to the improved representation of energetic diurnal forcing over adjacent land.