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Zhao, Z, Kooperman GJ, Pritchard MS, Russell LM, Somerville RCJ.  2014.  Investigating impacts of forest fires in Alaska and western Canada on regional weather over the northeastern United States using CAM5 global simulations to constrain transport to a WRF-Chem regional domain. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. 119:2013JD020973.   10.1002/2013JD020973   AbstractWebsite

An aerosol-enabled globally driven regional modeling system has been developed by coupling the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) with the Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry (WRF-Chem). In this modeling system, aerosol-enabled CAM5, a state-of-the-art global climate model is downscaled to provide coherent meteorological and chemical boundary conditions for regional WRF-Chem simulations. Aerosol particle emissions originating outside the WRF-Chem domain can be a potentially important nonlocal aerosol source. As a test case, the potential impacts of nonlocal forest fire aerosols on regional precipitation and radiation were investigated over the northeastern United States during the summer of 2004. During this period, forest fires in Alaska and western Canada lofted aerosol particles into the midtroposphere, which were advected across the United States. WRF-Chem simulations that included nonlocal biomass burning aerosols had domain-mean aerosol optical depths that were nearly three times higher than those without, which reduced peak downwelling domain-mean shortwave radiation at the surface by ~25 W m−2. In this classic twin experiment design, adding nonlocal fire plume led to near-surface cooling and changes in cloud vertical distribution, while variations in domain-mean cloud liquid water path were negligible. The higher aerosol concentrations in the simulation with the fire plume resulted in a ~10% reduction in domain-mean precipitation coincident with an ~8% decrease in domain-mean CAPE. A suite of simulations was also conducted to explore sensitivities of meteorological feedbacks to the ratio of black carbon to total plume aerosols, as well as to overall plume concentrations. Results from this ensemble revealed that plume-induced near-surface cooling and CAPE reduction occur in a wide range of conditions. The response of moist convection was very complex because of strong thermodynamic internal variability.

Zhang, C, Wang M, Morrison H, Somerville RCJ, Zhang K, Liu X, Li J-LF.  2014.  Investigating ice nucleation in cirrus clouds with an aerosol-enabled Multiscale Modeling Framework. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems. 6:998-1015.   10.1002/2014MS000343   Abstract

In this study, an aerosol-dependent ice nucleation scheme has been implemented in an aerosol-enabled Multiscale Modeling Framework (PNNL MMF) to study ice formation in upper troposphere cirrus clouds through both homogeneous and heterogeneous nucleation. The MMF model represents cloud scale processes by embedding a cloud-resolving model (CRM) within each vertical column of a GCM grid. By explicitly linking ice nucleation to aerosol number concentration, CRM-scale temperature, relative humidity and vertical velocity, the new MMF model simulates the persistent high ice supersaturation and low ice number concentration (10–100/L) at cirrus temperatures. The new model simulates the observed shift of the ice supersaturation PDF toward higher values at low temperatures following the homogeneous nucleation threshold. The MMF model predicts a higher frequency of midlatitude supersaturation in the Southern Hemisphere and winter hemisphere, which is consistent with previous satellite and in situ observations. It is shown that compared to a conventional GCM, the MMF is a more powerful model to simulate parameters that evolve over short time scales such as supersaturation. Sensitivity tests suggest that the simulated global distribution of ice clouds is sensitive to the ice nucleation scheme and the distribution of sulfate and dust aerosols. Simulations are also performed to test empirical parameters related to auto-conversion of ice crystals to snow. Results show that with a value of 250 μm for the critical diameter, Dcs, that distinguishes ice crystals from snow, the model can produce good agreement with the satellite-retrieved products in terms of cloud ice water path and ice water content, while the total ice water is not sensitive to the specification of Dcs value.

Zhang, M, Somerville RCJ, Xie S.  2016.  The SCM concept and creation of ARM forcing datasets. Meteorological Monographs. 57:24.1-24.12.   10.1175/AMSMONOGRAPHS-D-15-0040.1   Abstract

Two papers published in the early 1990s significantly influenced the subsequent design of ARM and its adoption of the single-column model (SCM) approach. The first paper, by Cess et al. (1990), showed a threefold difference in the sensitivity of climate models in a surrogate climate change that is attributed largely to cloud–climate feedbacks. The second paper, by Ellingson et al. (1991), reported 10%–20% difference in the calculated broadband radiation budget and 30%–40% difference in the radiative forcing of greenhouse gases in the radiation codes of climate models. At that time, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) had a program to study the climate impact of the increasing amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Results from these two papers pointed to the major uncertainties in climate forcing and feedbacks of climate models.

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Yang, Y, Russell LM, Xu L, Lou SJ, Lamjiri MA, Somerville RCJ, Miller AJ, Cayan DR, DeFlorio MJ, Ghan SJ, Liu Y, Singh B, Wang HL, Yoon JH, Rasch PJ.  2016.  Impacts of ENSO events on cloud radiative effects in preindustrial conditions: Changes in cloud fraction and their dependence on interactive aerosol emissions and concentrations. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres. 121:6321-6335.   10.1002/2015jd024503   AbstractWebsite

We use three 150 year preindustrial simulations of the Community Earth System Model to quantify the impacts of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on shortwave and longwave cloud radiative effects (CRESW and CRELW). Compared to recent observations from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System data set, the model simulation successfully reproduces larger variations of CRESW and CRELW over the tropics. The ENSO cycle is found to dominate interannual variations of cloud radiative effects. Simulated cooling (warming) effects from CRESW (CRELW) are strongest over the tropical western and central Pacific Ocean during warm ENSO events, with the largest difference between 20 and 60 W m(-2), with weaker effects of 10-40 W m(-2) over Indonesian regions and the subtropical Pacific Ocean. Sensitivity tests show that variations of cloud radiative effects are mainly driven by ENSO-related changes in cloud fraction. The variations in midlevel and high cloud fractions each account for approximately 20-50% of the interannual variations of CRESW over the tropics and almost all of the variations of CRELW between 60 degrees S and 60 degrees N. The variation of low cloud fraction contributes to most of the variations of CRESW over the midlatitude oceans. Variations in natural aerosol concentrations explained 10-30% of the variations of both CRESW and CRELW over the tropical Pacific, Indonesian regions, and the tropical Indian Ocean. Changes in natural aerosol emissions and concentrations enhance 3-5% and 1-3% of the variations of cloud radiative effects averaged over the tropics.

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Xu, KM, Zhang MH, Eitzen MA, Ghan SJ, Klein SA, Wu XQ, Xie SC, Branson M, Delgenio AD, Iacobellis SF, Khairoutdinov M, Lin WY, Lohmann U, Randall DA, Somerville RCJ, Sud YC, Walker GK, Wolf A, Yio JJ, Zhang JH.  2005.  Modeling springtime shallow frontal clouds with cloud-resolving and single-column models. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres. 110   10.1029/2004jd005153   AbstractWebsite

This modeling study compares the performance of eight single-column models (SCMs) and four cloud-resolving models (CRMs) in simulating shallow frontal cloud systems observed during a short period of the March 2000 Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) intensive operational period. Except for the passage of a cold front at the beginning of this period, frontal cloud systems are under the influence of an upper tropospheric ridge and are driven by a persistent frontogenesis over the Southern Great Plains and moisture transport from the northwestern part of the Gulf of Mexico. This study emphasizes quantitative comparisons among the model simulations and with the ARM data, focusing on a 27-hour period when only shallow frontal clouds were observed. All CRMs and SCMs simulate clouds in the observed shallow cloud layer. Most SCMs also produce clouds in the middle and upper troposphere, while none of the CRMs produce any clouds there. One possible cause for this is the decoupling between cloud condensate and cloud fraction in nearly all SCM parameterizations. Another possible cause is the weak upper tropospheric subsidence that has been averaged over both descending and ascending regions. Significantly different cloud amounts and cloud microphysical properties are found in the model simulations. All CRMs and most SCMs underestimate shallow clouds in the lowest 125 hPa near the surface, but most SCMs overestimate the cloud amount above this layer. These results are related to the detailed formulations of cloud microphysical processes and fractional cloud parameterizations in the SCMs, and possibly to the dynamical framework and two-dimensional configuration of the CRMs. Although two of the CRMs with anelastic dynamical frameworks simulate the shallow frontal clouds much better than the SCMs, the CRMs do not necessarily perform much better than the SCMs for the entire period when deep and shallow frontal clouds are present.

Xu, L, Pierce DW, Russell LM, Miller AJ, Somerville RCJ, Twohy CH, Ghan SJ, Singh B, Yoon J-H, Rasch PJ.  2015.  Interannual to decadal climate variability of sea salt aerosols in the coupled climate model CESM1.0. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. :2014JD022888.   10.1002/2014JD022888   AbstractWebsite

This study examines multi-year climate variability associated with sea salt aerosols and their contribution to the variability of shortwave cloud forcing (SWCF) using a 150-year simulation for pre-industrial conditions of the Community Earth System Model version 1.0 (CESM1). The results suggest that changes in sea salt and related cloud and radiative properties on interannual timescales are dominated by the ENSO cycle. Sea salt variability on longer (interdecadal) timescales is associated with low-frequency variability in the Pacific Ocean similar to the interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), but does not show a statistically significant spectral peak. A multivariate regression suggests that sea salt aerosol variability may contribute to SWCF variability in the tropical Pacific, explaining up to 20-30% of the variance in that region. Elsewhere, there is only a small sea salt aerosol influence on SWCF through modifying cloud droplet number and liquid water path that contributes to the change of cloud effective radius and cloud optical depth (and hence cloud albedo), producing a multi-year aerosol-cloud-wind interaction.

Xu, L, Russell LM, Somerville RCJ, Quinn PK.  2013.  Frost flower aerosol effects on Arctic wintertime longwave cloud radiative forcing. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres. 118:13282-13291.   10.1002/2013jd020554   Abstract

Frost flowers are clusters of highly saline ice crystals growing on newly formed sea ice or frozen lakes. Based on observations of particles derived from frost flowers in the Arctic, we formulate an observation-based parameterization of salt aerosol source function from frost flowers. The particle flux from frost flowers in winter has the order of 10(6)m(-2)s(-1) at the wind speed of 10ms(-1), but the source flux is highly localized to new sea ice regions and strongly dependent on wind speed. We have implemented this parameterization into the regional Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry initialized for two wintertime scenarios. The addition of sea salt aerosol emissions from frost flowers increases averaged sea salt aerosol mass and number concentration and subsequent cloud droplet number. This change of cloud droplet number concentration increases downward longwave cloud radiative forcing through enhanced cloud optical depth and emissivity. The magnitude of this forcing of sea salt aerosols from frost flowers on clouds and radiation, however, contributes negligibly to surface warming in Barrow, Alaska, in the wintertime scenarios studied here.

Xie, SC, Zhang MH, Branson M, Cederwall RT, Delgenio AD, Eitzen ZA, Ghan SJ, Iacobellis SF, Johnson KL, Khairoutdinov M, Klein SA, Krueger SK, Lin WY, Lohmann U, Miller MA, Randall DA, Somerville RCJ, Sud YC, Walker GK, Wolf A, Wu XQ, Xu KM, Yio JJ, Zhang G, Zhang JH.  2005.  Simulations of midlatitude frontal clouds by single-column and cloud-resolving models during the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement March 2000 cloud intensive operational period. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres. 110   10.1029/2004jd005119   AbstractWebsite

[1] This study quantitatively evaluates the overall performance of nine single-column models (SCMs) and four cloud-resolving models (CRMs) in simulating a strong midlatitude frontal cloud system taken from the spring 2000 Cloud Intensive Observational Period at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement ( ARM) Southern Great Plains site. The evaluation data are an analysis product of constrained variational analysis of the ARM observations and the cloud data collected from the ARM ground active remote sensors (i.e., cloud radar, lidar, and laser ceilometers) and satellite retrievals. Both the selected SCMs and CRMs can typically capture the bulk characteristics of the frontal system and the frontal precipitation. However, there are significant differences in detailed structures of the frontal clouds. Both CRMs and SCMs overestimate high thin cirrus clouds before the main frontal passage. During the passage of a front with strong upward motion, CRMs underestimate middle and low clouds while SCMs overestimate clouds at the levels above 765 hPa. All CRMs and some SCMs also underestimated the middle clouds after the frontal passage. There are also large differences in the model simulations of cloud condensates owing to differences in parameterizations; however, the differences among intercompared models are smaller in the CRMs than the SCMs. In general, the CRM-simulated cloud water and ice are comparable with observations, while most SCMs underestimated cloud water. SCMs show huge biases varying from large overestimates to equally large underestimates of cloud ice. Many of these model biases could be traced to the lack of subgrid-scale dynamical structure in the applied forcing fields and the lack of organized mesoscale hydrometeor advections. Other potential reasons for these model errors are also discussed in the paper.

Xie, SC, Xu KM, Cederwall RT, Bechtold P, Delgenio AD, Klein SA, Cripe DG, Ghan SJ, Gregory D, Iacobellis SF, Krueger SK, Lohmann U, Petch JC, Randall DA, Rotstayn LD, Somerville RCJ, Sud YC, Von Salzen K, Walker GK, Wolf A, Yio JJ, Zhang GJ, Zhang MG.  2002.  Intercomparison and evaluation of cumulus parametrizations under summertime midlatitude continental conditions. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. 128:1095-1135.   10.1256/003590002320373229   AbstractWebsite

This study reports the Single-Column Model (SCM) part of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM)/the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Cloud System Study (GCSS) joint SCM and Cloud-Resolving Model (CRM) Case 3 intercomparison study, with a focus on evaluation Of Cumulus parametrizations used in SCMs. Fifteen SCMs are evaluated under summertime midlatitude continental conditions using data collected at the ARM Southern Great Plains site during the summer 1997 Intensive Observing Period. Results from ten CRMs are also used to diagnose problems in the SCMs. It is shown that most SCMs can generally capture well the convective events that were well-developed within the SCM domain, while most of them have difficulties in simulating the occurrence of those convective events that only occurred within a small part of the domain. All models significantly underestimate the surface stratiform precipitation. A third of them produce large errors in surface precipitation and thermodynamic structures. Deficiencies in convective triggering mechanisms are thought to be one of the major reasons. Using a triggering mechanism that is based on the vertical integral of parcel buoyant energy without additional appropriate constraints results in overactive convection, which in turn leads to large systematic warm/dry biases in the troposphere. It is also shown that a non-penetrative convection scheme can underestimate the depth of instability for midlatitude convection, which leads to large systematic cold/moist biases in the troposphere. SCMs agree well quantitatively with CRMs in the updraught mass fluxes, while most models significantly underestimate the downdraught mass fluxes. Neglect of mesoscale updraught and downdraught mass fluxes in the SCMs contributes considerably to the discrepancies between the SCMs and the CRMs. In addition, uncertainties in the diagnosed mass fluxes in the CRMs and deficiencies with cumulus parametrizations are not negligible. Similar results are obtained in the sensitivity tests when different forcing approaches are used. Finally. sensitivity tests from an SCM indicate that its simulations can be greatly improved when its triggering mechanism and closure assumption are improved.

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Willis, GE, Deardorff JW, Somerville RCJ.  1972.  Roll-diameter dependence in Rayleigh convection and its effect upon the heat flux. Journal of Fluid Mechanics. 54:351-367.   10.1017/S0022112072000722   Abstract

The average roll diameter in Rayleigh convection for 2000 < R < 31000, where R is the Rayleigh number, has been measured from photographs of three convecting fluids: air, water and a silicone oil with a Prandtl number σ of 450. For air the average dimensionless roll diameter was found to depend uniquely upon R and to increase especially rapidly in the range 2000 < R < 8000. The fluids of larger σ exhibited strong hysteresis but also had average roll diameters tending to increase with R. The increase in average roll diameter with R tended to decrease with σ. Through use of two-dimensional numerical integrations for the case of air it was found that the increase in average roll diameter with R provides an explanation for the usual discrepancy in heat flux observed between experiment and two-dimensional numerical calculations which prescribe a fixed wavelength.

Walsh, J, Wuebbles D, Hayhoe K, Kossin JP, Kunkel K, Stephens GL, Thorne PD, Vose RS, Wehner B, Willis J, Anderson D, Kharin V, Knutson T, Landerer FW, Lenton TM, Kennedy JJ, Somerville R.  2014.  Appendix 3: Climate Science Supplement. Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment. ( Mellilo JM, Richmond T(TC), Yohe GW, Eds.).:735-789.: U.S. Global Change Research Program   10.7930/J0KS6PHH   Abstract

This appendix provides further information and discussion on climate science beyond that presented in Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate. Like the chapter, the appendix focuses on the observations, model simulations, and other analyses that explain what is happening to climate at the national and global scales, why these changes are occurring, and how climate is projected to change throughout this century. In the appendix, however, more information is provided on attribution, spatial and temporal detail, and physical mechanisms than could be covered within the length constraints of the main chapter.

Walsh, J, Wuebbles D, Hayhoe K, Kossin JP, Kunkel K, Stephens GL, Thorne PD, Vose RS, Wehner B, Willis J, Anderson D, Doney S, Feeley R, Hennon PA, Kharin V, Knutson T, Landerer FW, Lenton TM, Kennedy JJ, Somerville R.  2014.  Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate. Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment. ( Mellilo JM, Richmond T(TC), Yohe GW, Eds.).:19-67.: U.S. Global Change Research Program   10.7930/J0KW5CXT   Abstract

This chapter summarizes how climate is changing, why it is changing, and what is projected for the future. While the focus is on changes in the United States, the need to provide context sometimes requires a broader geographical perspective. Additional geographic detail is presented in the regional chapters of this report. Further details on the topics covered by this chapter are provided in the Climate Science Supplement and Frequently Asked Questions Appendices.

Walsh, J, Wuebbles D, Hayhoe K, Kossin JP, Kunkel K, Stephens GL, Thorne PD, Vose RS, Wehner B, Willis J, Anderson D, Kharin V, Knutson T, Landerer FW, Lenton TM, Kennedy JJ, Somerville R.  2014.  Appendix 4: Frequently Asked Questions (Question E). Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment. ( Mellilo JM, Richmond T(TC), Yohe GW, Eds.).:790-820.: U.S. Global Change Research Program   10.7930/J0G15XS3   Abstract

E. Is it getting warmer at the same rate everywhere? Will the warming continue?Temperatures are not increasing at the same rate everywhere, because temperature changes in a given location depend on many factors. However, average global temperatures are projected to continue increasing throughout the remainder of this century due to heat-trapping gas emissions from human activities.

Waliser, DE, Somerville RCJ.  1994.  Preferred Latitudes of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 51:1619-1639.   10.1175/1520-0469(1994)051<1619:plotic>2.0.co;2   AbstractWebsite

The latitude preference of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is examined on the basis of observations, theory, and a modeling analysis. Observations show that convection is enhanced at latitudes of about 4-degrees to 10-degrees relative to the equator, even in regions where the sea surface temperature (SST) is maximum on the equator. Both linear shallow-water theory and a moist primitive equation model suggest a new explanation for the off-equatorial latitude preference of the ITCZ that requires neither the existence of zonally propagating disturbances nor an off-equatorial maximum in SST. The shallow-water theory indicates that a finite-width, zonally oriented, midtropospheric heat source (i.e., an ITCZ) produces the greatest local low-level convergence when placed a finite distance away from the equator. This result suggests that an ITCZ is most likely to be supported via low-level convergence of moist energy when located at these ''preferred'' latitudes away from die equator. For a plausible range of heating widths and damping parameters, the theoretically predicted latitude is approximately equal to the observed position(s) of the ITCZ(s). Analysis with an axially symmetric, moist, primitive equation model indicates that when the latent heating field is allowed to be determined internally, a positive feedback develops between the midtropospheric latent heating and the low-level convergence, with the effect of enhancing the organization of convection at latitudes of about 4-degrees to 12-degrees. Numerical experiments show that 1) two peaks in convective precipitation develop straddling the equator when the SST maximum is located on the equator; 2) steady ITCZ-like structures form only when the SST maximum is located away from the equator; and 3) peaks in convection can develop away from the maximum in SST, with a particular preference for latitudes of about 4-degrees to 12-degrees-, even in the (''cold'') hemisphere without the SST maximum. The relationship between this mechanism and earlier theories is discussed, as are implications for the coupled ocean-atmosphere system and the roles played by midlevel latent heating and SST gradients in forcing the low-level atmospheric circulation in the tropics.

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Stone, PH, Quirk WJ, Somervil.Rc.  1974.  Effect of Small-Scale Vertical Mixing of Horizontal Momentum in a General Circulation Model. Monthly Weather Review. 102:765-771.   10.1175/1520-0493(1974)102<0765:teossv>2.0.co;2   AbstractWebsite

Several experiments are described in which the sub-grid-scale vertical eddy viscosity in the GISS global general circulation model was varied. The results show that large viscosities suppress large-scale eddies in middle and high latitudes, but enhance the circulation in the tropical Hadley cell and increase the extent of the tropical easterlies. Comparison with observations shows that the GISS model requires eddy viscosities 1 m2/s or less to give realistic results for middle and high latitudes, and eddy viscosities 100 m2/s to give realistic results for low latitudes. A plausible mechanism for the implied increase in small-scale mixing in low latitudes is cumulus convection.

Somerville, RCJ, Jouzel J.  2007.  Le groupe intergouvernemental d'experts sur l'evolution du climat: le consensus a l'échelle planétaire. Comprendre le changement climatique. ( André JC, Fellous JL, Gautier C, Eds.).:27-44., Paris: O. Jacob Abstract
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Somerville, RCJ, Quirk WJ, Hansen JE, Lacis AA, Stone PH.  1976.  Search for Short-Term Meteorological Effects of Solar Variability in an Atmospheric Circulation Model. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans and Atmospheres. 81:1572-1576.   10.1029/JC081i009p01572   AbstractWebsite

A set of numerical experiments is carried out to test the short-range sensitivity of the Giss (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) global atmospheric general circulation model to changes in solar constant and ozone amount. These experiments consist of forecasts initialized with actual atmospheric data. One set of forecasts is made with a standard version of the model, and another set uses the model modified by very different values of the solar constant (two thirds and three halves of the standard value) and of the ozone amount (zero and twice the standard amount). Twelve-day integrations with these very large variations show such small effects that the effects of realistic variations would almost certainly be insignificant meteorologically on this time scale.

Somerville, RCJ.  1967.  A Nonlinear Spectral Model of Convection in a Fluid Unevenly Heated from Below. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 24:665-676.: American Meteorological Society   10.1175/1520-0469(1967)024<0665:ansmoc>2.0.co;2   AbstractWebsite

A two-dimensional form of the Boussinesq equations is integrated numerically for the case of a rectangular channel with a temperature gradient maintained along the bottom. The side walls are insulating, the top wall has a constant temperature, and the velocity obeys free boundary conditions on all four walls. The fields of stream function and temperature departure are represented by truncated double Fourier series, and integration of the initial-value problem for the spectral amplitudes results in steady states which agree qualitatively with those of previous experimental and theoretical investigations.Calculations are presented at two levels of truncation (wave numbers 2 and 3) for a wide range of Prandtl numbers and a moderate range of horizontal Rayleigh numbers and top temperatures. For sufficiently large gravitational stability, a single asymmetric convection cell develops. Its intensity and asymmetry increase markedly with increasing horizontal Rayleigh number, decrease with increasing top temperature, and respond very slightly to changes in Prandtl number. As the top temperature is decreased below the temperature of the warm side of the bottom, however, the possibility is indicated that the single cell may be modified by a Bénard-like multi-cellular structure.

Somerville, RCJ.  2012.  Science, Politics, and Public Perceptions of Climate Change. Climate Change. ( Berger A, Mesinger F, Sijacki D, Eds.).:3-17.: Springer Vienna   10.1007/978-3-7091-0973-1_1   Abstract

Recent research has demonstrated that climate change continues to occur, and in several aspects, the magnitude and rapidity of observed changes frequently exceed the estimates of earlier projections, such as those published in 2007 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its Fourth Assessment Report. Measurements show that the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are losing mass and contributing to sea-level rise. Arctic sea ice has melted more rapidly than climate models had predicted. Global sea-level rise may exceed 1 m by 2100, with a rise of up to 2 m considered possible. Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are increasing rather than decreasing. This chapter summarizes recent research findings and notes that many countries have agreed on the aspirational goal of limiting global warming to 2°C above nineteenth-century “preindustrial” temperatures, in order to have a reasonable chance for avoiding dangerous human-caused climate change. Setting such a goal is a political decision. However, science shows that achieving this goal requires that global greenhouse gas emissions must peak within the next decade and then decline rapidly. Although the expert scientific community is in wide agreement on the basic results of climate change science, much confusion persists among the general public and politicians in many countries. To date, little progress has been made toward reducing global emissions.

Somerville, RCJ, Galchen T.  1979.  A Numerical Simulation of Convection with Mean Vertical Motion. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 36:805-815.   10.1175/1520-0469(1979)036<0805:nsocwm>2.0.co;2   AbstractWebsite

The flow in a convectively unstable layer of fluid may be strongly influenced by large-scale ascent or descent. We consider cellular convection between horizontal surfaces on which vertical velocity is maintained at a constant value. Using an efficient numerical model to simulate the evolution of the convection in three space dimensions and time, we investigate the effect of the imposed vertical velocity on the flow.For moderately supercritical values of the Rayleigh number and for Prandtl numbers near unity, convection is known to occur in the form of steady rolls if the specified mean vertical motion is zero, i.e., in the case of the conventional Bénard problem for a Boussinesq fluid. Our model also produces rolls under these circumstances. For sufficiently large values of the imposed vertical velocity, however, the numerically simulated rolls are replaced by polygonal cells in which the direction of flow depends on whether ascent or descent is prescribed at the boundaries, in accordance with recent theoretical and laboratory results of R. Krishnamurti. We have also investigated the dependence of the convection on the Rayleigh and Prandtl numbers within limited ranges of these parameters, and we discuss several aspects of agreement and disagreement among analytical theory, laboratory experiment and numerical simulation.

Somerville, R.  1996.  The Forgiving Air : Understanding Environmental Change. :xiv,195p.., Berkeley, Calif.: University of California Press Abstract
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Somerville, RCJ.  2014.  Is learning about climate change like having a colonoscopy? Earth's Future. 2:119-121.: Wiley Periodicals, Inc.   10.1002/2013EF000169   Abstract

Many people avoid having valuable medical tests from fear of the results
People resist learning about climate change, fearing unpleasant consequences
Research suggests addressing these concerns early, aids in communication

Somerville, RCJ.  2011.  How much should the public know about climate science? Climatic Change. 104:509-514.   10.1007/s10584-010-9938-y   AbstractWebsite
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Somerville, RCJ, Lipps FB.  1973.  A Numerical Study in Three Space Dimensions of Bénard Convection in a Rotating Fluid. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 30:590-596.: American Meteorological Society   10.1175/1520-0469(1973)030<0590:ansits>2.0.co;2   AbstractWebsite

The primitive, nonlinear, Boussinesq equations of motion, continuity and thermodynamic energy are integrated numerically in three space dimensions and time to study convection driven by unstable vertical density gradients and subject to Coriolis forces. Parameter values are chosen to permit quantitative comparison with data from laboratory experiments for rotating Bénard convection in water. The model realistically simulates the structure of the convection cells, their horizontal scale, and the mean vertical heat transport. The experimentally observed phenomenon of a non-monotone dependence of heat transport on rotation rate is reproduced and shown to be a consequence of the rotational constraint on the wavelength of the cells.