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Walsh, J, Wuebbles D, Hayhoe K, Kossin JP, Kunkel K, Stephens GL, Thorne PD, Vose RS, Wehner B, Willis J, Anderson D, Kharin V, Knutson T, Landerer FW, Lenton TM, Kennedy JJ, Somerville R.  2014.  Appendix 3: Climate Science Supplement. Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment. ( Mellilo JM, Richmond T(TC), Yohe GW, Eds.).:735-789.: U.S. Global Change Research Program   10.7930/J0KS6PHH   Abstract

This appendix provides further information and discussion on climate science beyond that presented in Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate. Like the chapter, the appendix focuses on the observations, model simulations, and other analyses that explain what is happening to climate at the national and global scales, why these changes are occurring, and how climate is projected to change throughout this century. In the appendix, however, more information is provided on attribution, spatial and temporal detail, and physical mechanisms than could be covered within the length constraints of the main chapter.

Walsh, J, Wuebbles D, Hayhoe K, Kossin JP, Kunkel K, Stephens GL, Thorne PD, Vose RS, Wehner B, Willis J, Anderson D, Kharin V, Knutson T, Landerer FW, Lenton TM, Kennedy JJ, Somerville R.  2014.  Appendix 4: Frequently Asked Questions (Question E). Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment. ( Mellilo JM, Richmond T(TC), Yohe GW, Eds.).:790-820.: U.S. Global Change Research Program   10.7930/J0G15XS3   Abstract

E. Is it getting warmer at the same rate everywhere? Will the warming continue?Temperatures are not increasing at the same rate everywhere, because temperature changes in a given location depend on many factors. However, average global temperatures are projected to continue increasing throughout the remainder of this century due to heat-trapping gas emissions from human activities.

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Walsh, J, Wuebbles D, Hayhoe K, Kossin JP, Kunkel K, Stephens GL, Thorne PD, Vose RS, Wehner B, Willis J, Anderson D, Doney S, Feeley R, Hennon PA, Kharin V, Knutson T, Landerer FW, Lenton TM, Kennedy JJ, Somerville R.  2014.  Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate. Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment. ( Mellilo JM, Richmond T(TC), Yohe GW, Eds.).:19-67.: U.S. Global Change Research Program   10.7930/J0KW5CXT   Abstract

This chapter summarizes how climate is changing, why it is changing, and what is projected for the future. While the focus is on changes in the United States, the need to provide context sometimes requires a broader geographical perspective. Additional geographic detail is presented in the regional chapters of this report. Further details on the topics covered by this chapter are provided in the Climate Science Supplement and Frequently Asked Questions Appendices.

Somerville, RCJ, Hassol SJ.  2011.  Communicating the science of climate change. Physics Today. 64:48-53.   10.1063/PT.3.1296   AbstractWebsite

It is urgent that climate scientists improve the ways they convey their findings to a poorly informed and often indifferent public.

Ghan, S, Randall D, Xu KM, Cederwall R, Cripe D, Hack J, Iacobellis S, Klein S, Krueger S, Lohmann U, Pedretti J, Robock A, Rotstayn L, Somerville R, Stenchikov G, Sud Y, Walker G, Xie SC, Yio J, Zhang MH.  2000.  A comparison of single column model simulations of summertime midlatitude continental convection. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres. 105:2091-2124.   Doi 10.1029/1999jd900971   AbstractWebsite

Eleven different single-column models (SCMs) and one cloud ensemble model (CEM) are driven by boundary conditions observed at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program southern Great Plains site for a 17 day period during the summer of 1995. Comparison of the model simulations reveals common signatures identifiable as products of errors in the boundary conditions. Intermodel differences in the simulated temperature, humidity, cloud, precipitation, and radiative fluxes reflect differences in model resolution or physical parameterizations, although sensitive dependence on initial conditions can also contribute to intermodel differences. All models perform well at times but poorly at others. Although none of the SCM simulations stands out as superior to the others, the simulation by the CEM is in several respects in better agreement with the observations than the simulations by the SCMs. Nudging of the simulated temperature and humidity toward observations generally improves the simulated cloud and radiation fields as well as the simulated temperature and humidity but degrades the precipitation simulation for models with large temperature and humidity biases without nudging. Although some of the intermodel differences have not been explained, others have been identified as model problems that can be or have been corrected as a result of the comparison.

Allison, I, Bindoff NL, Bindschadler RA, Cox PM, de Noblet N, England MH, Francis JE, Gruber N, Haywood AM, Karoly DJ, Kaser G, Quéré LC, Lenton TM, Mann ME, McNeil BI, Pitman AJ, Rahmstorf S, Rignot E, Schellnhuber HJ, Schneider SH, Sherwood SC, Somerville RCJ, K.Steffen, Steig EJ, Visbeck M, Weaver AJ.  2009.  The Copenhagen Diagnosis, 2009: Updating the world on the Latest Climate Science. :60. Abstract
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Allison, I, Bindoff NL, Bindschadler RA, Cox PM, de Noblet N, England MH, Francis JE, Gruber N, Haywood AM, Karoly DJ, Kaser G, Quéré LC, Lenton TM, Mann ME, McNeil BI, Pitman AJ, Rahmstorf S, Rignot E, Schellnhuber HJ, Schneider SH, Sherwood SC, Somerville RCJ, Steffen K, Steig EJ, Visbeck M, Weaver. AJ.  2011.  The Copenhagen Diagnosis: Updating the world on the latest climate science. :xiv,98p.., Burlington, MA: Elsevier Abstract
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Somervil.Rc, Stone PH, Halem M, Hansen JE, Hogan JS, Druyan LM, Russell G, Lacis AA, Quirk WJ, Tenenbau.J.  1974.  GISS Model of Global Atmosphere. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 31:84-117.   10.1175/1520-0469(1974)031<0084:tgmotg>2.0.co;2   AbstractWebsite

A model description and numerical results are presented for a global atmospheric circulation model developed at the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS). The model version described is a 9-level primitive-equation model in sigma coordinates. It includes a realistic distribution of continents, oceans and topography. Detailed calculations of energy transfer by solar and terrestrial radiation make use of cloud and water vapor fields calculated by the model. The model hydrologic cycle includes two precipitation mechanisms: large-scale supersaturation and a parameterization of subgrid-scale cumulus convection.Results are presented both from a comparison of the 13th to the 43rd days (January) of one integration with climatological statistics, and from five short-range forecasting experiments. In the extended integration, the near-equilibrium January-mean model atmosphere exhibits an energy cycle in good agreement with observational estimates, together with generally realistic zonal mean fields of winds, temperature, humidity, transports, diabatic heating, evaporation, precipitation, and cloud cover. In the five forecasting experiments, after 48 hr, the average rms error in temperature is 3.9K, and the average rms error in 500-mb height is 62 m. The model is successful in simulating the 2-day evolution of the major features of the observed sea level pressure and 500-mb height fields in a region surrounding North America.

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Lubin, D, Chen B, Bromwich DH, Somerville RCJ, Lee WH, Hines KM.  1998.  The impact of Antarctic cloud radiative properties on a GCM climate simulation. Journal of Climate. 11:447-462.   10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<0447:tioacr>2.0.co;2   AbstractWebsite

A sensitivity study to evaluate the impact upon regional and hemispheric climate caused by changing the optical properties of clouds over the Antarctic continent is conducted with the NCAR Community Model version 2 (CCM2). Sensitivity runs are performed in which radiation interacts with ice clouds with particle sizes of 10 and 40 mu m rather than with the standard 10-mu m water clouds. The experiments are carried out for perpetual January conditions with the diurnal cycle considered. The effects of these cloud changes on the Antarctic radiation budget are examined by considering cloud forcing at the top of the atmosphere and net radiation at the surface. Changes of the cloud radiative properties to those of 10-mu m ice clouds over Antarctica have significant Impacts on regional climate: temperature increases throughout the Antarctic troposphere by 1 degrees-2 degrees C and total cloud fraction over Antarctica is smaller than that of the control at low levels but is larger than that of the control in the mid- to upper troposphere. As a result of Antarctic warming and changes in the north-south temperature gradient, the drainage flows at the surface as well as the meridional mass circulation are weakened. Similarly, the circumpolar trough weakens significantly by 4-8 hPa and moves northward by about 4 degrees-5 degrees latitude. This regional mass field adjustment halves the strength of the simulated surface westerly winds. As a result of indirect thermodynamic and dynamic effects, significant changes are observed in the zonal mean circulation and eddies in the middle latitudes. In fact, the simulated impacts of the Antarctic cloud radiative alteration are not confined to the Southern Hemisphere. The meridional mean mass flux, zonal wind, and latent heat release exhibit statistically significant changes in the Tropics and even extratropics of the Northern Hemisphere. The simulation with radiative properties of 40-mu m ice clouds produces colder surface temperatures over Antarctica by up to 3 degrees C compared to the control. Otherwise, the results of the 40-mu m ice cloud simulation are similar to those of the 10-mu m ice cloud simulation.

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Hathaway, DH, Somerville RCJ.  1986.  Nonlinear Interactions between Convection, Rotation and Flows with Vertical Shear. Journal of Fluid Mechanics. 164:91-&.   10.1017/s0022112086002483   AbstractWebsite

A three-dimensional and time-dependent numerical model is used to study the nonlinear interactions between thermal convective motions, rotation, and imposed flows with vertical shear. All cases have Rayleigh numbers of 104 and Prandtl numbers of 1.0. Rotating cases have Taylor numbers of 104.For the non-rotating cases, the effects of the shear on the convection produce longitudinal rolls aligned with the shear flow and a downgradient flux of momentum. The interaction between the convection and the shear flow decreases the shear in the interior of the fluid layer while adding kinetic energy to the convective motions. For unit Prandtl number the dimensionless flux of momentum is equal to the dimensionless flux of heat.For rotating cases with vertical rotation vectors, the shear flow favours rolls aligned with the shear and produces a downgradient flux of momentum. However, the Coriolis force turns the flow induced by the convection to produce a more complicated shear that changes direction with height. As in the non-rotating cases, the convective motions become more energetic by extracting energy from the mean flow. For Richardson numbers larger than about − 1.0, the dominant source of eddy kinetic energy is the shear flow rather than buoyancy.For rotating cases with tilted rotation vectors the results depend upon the direction of the shear. For weak shear, convective rolls aligned with the rotation vector are favoured. When the shear flow is directed to the east along the top, the rolls become broader and the convection weaker. For large shear in this direction, the convective motions are quenched by the competition between the shear flow and the tilted rotation vector. When the shear flow is directed to the west along the top, strong shear produces rolls aligned with the shear. The heat and momentum fluxes become large and can exceed those found in the absence of a tilted rotation vector. Countergradient fluxes of momentum can also be produced.

Hathaway, DH, Somerville RCJ.  1985.  Numerical simulation in three space dimensions of time-dependent thermal convection in a rotating fluid. Lectures in Applied Mathematics. 22:309-319. Abstract

Three-dimensional time-dependent convection in a plane layer of fluid, uniformly heated from below and subject to vertical shear and to rotation about an axis tilted from the vertical, was simulated by the numerical solution of the Boussinesq equations, including all Coriolis terms. Rotation about a vertical axis produces smaller convection cells with diminished heat fluxes and considerable vorticity. When the rotation axis is tilted from the vertical to represent tropical latitudes, the convection cells become elongated in a N-S direction. Imposed flows with constant vertical shear produce convective rolls aligned with the mean flow. When the rotation vector is tilted from the vertical, the competing effects due to rotation and shear can stabilize the convective motions.

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Rahmstorf, S, Cazenave A, Church JA, Hansen JE, Keeling RF, Parker DE, Somerville RCJ.  2007.  Recent climate observations compared to projections. Science. 316:709-709.   10.1126/science.1136843   AbstractWebsite

We present recent observed climate trends for carbon dioxide concentration, global mean air temperature, and global sea level, and we compare these trends to previous model projections as summarized in the 2001 assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC scenarios and projections start in the year 1990, which is also the base year of the Kyoto protocol, in which almost all industrialized nations accepted a binding commitment to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. The data available for the period since 1990 raise concerns that the climate system, in particular sea level, may be responding more quickly to climate change than our current generation of models indicates.

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Somerville, RCJ, Quirk WJ, Hansen JE, Lacis AA, Stone PH.  1976.  Search for Short-Term Meteorological Effects of Solar Variability in an Atmospheric Circulation Model. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans and Atmospheres. 81:1572-1576.   10.1029/JC081i009p01572   AbstractWebsite

A set of numerical experiments is carried out to test the short-range sensitivity of the Giss (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) global atmospheric general circulation model to changes in solar constant and ozone amount. These experiments consist of forecasts initialized with actual atmospheric data. One set of forecasts is made with a standard version of the model, and another set uses the model modified by very different values of the solar constant (two thirds and three halves of the standard value) and of the ozone amount (zero and twice the standard amount). Twelve-day integrations with these very large variations show such small effects that the effects of realistic variations would almost certainly be insignificant meteorologically on this time scale.

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Solomon, S, Qin D, Manning M, Alley RB, Berntsen TK, Bindoff N, Chen Z, Chidthaisong A, Gregory JM, Hegeri GC, Heimann M, Hewitson B, Hoskins BJ, Joos F, Jouzel J, Kattsov V, Lohmann U, Matsuno T, Molina M, Nicholls N, Overpeck JT, Raga G, Ramaswamy V, Ren J, Rusticucci M, Somerville RCJ, Stocker TF, Whetton P, Wood RA, Wratt D.  2007.  Technical Summary. Climate change 2007 : the physical science basis : contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. ( Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt K, Tignor M, Miller H, Eds.)., Cambridge; New York: Cambridge University Press Abstract
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Hathaway, DH, Somerville RCJ.  1987.  Thermal Convection in a Rotating Shear Flow. Geophysical and Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics. 38:43-&.   10.1080/03091928708210105   AbstractWebsite

A three-dimensional and time-dependent numerical model is used to simulate thermal convection imbedded in a shear flow in a rotating atmosphere. The fluid is confined to a plane parallel layer with periodic side boundaries, and the rotation vector is tilted from the vertical to represent a low-latitude region. An eastward mean flow is imposed which is constant with depth but has a jet-like profile in latitude. The convection is driven by a prescribed vertical temperature difference. Interactions between the shear flow and the convection extract energy from the mean flow and decrease the mean shear in the nonrotating case. In the presence of rotation, however, the convection can feed energy into the jet and enhance the mean shear. Mean meridional circulations are also produced by the effects of rotation. The Coriolis force on the vertical flows in these circulations contributes to the changes in the mean zonal wind. Three rotating cases are examined which show this behavior in varying degrees. A simple mechanism is described which explains how the convection can produce this countergradient flux of momentum in a rotating layer. Although the system studied is highly idealized, it exhibits momentum fluxes and wave-like patterns which, for certain parameter values, are similar to those observed on Jupiter.

Hathaway, DH, Somerville RCJ.  1983.  Three-Dimensional Simulations of Convection in Layers with Tilted Rotation Vectors. Journal of Fluid Mechanics. 126:75-&.   10.1017/s0022112083000051   AbstractWebsite

Three-dimensional and time-dependent numerical simulations of thermal convection are carried out for rotating layers in which the rotation vector is tilted from the vertical to represent various latitudes. The vertical component of the rotation vector produces narrow convection cells and a reduced heat flux. As this vertical component of the rotation vector diminishes in the lower latitudes, the vertical heat flux increases. The horizontal component of the rotation vector produces striking changes in the convective motions. It elongates the convection cells in a north–south direction. It also tends to turn upward motions to the west and downward motions to the east in a manner that produces a large-scale circulation. This circulation is directed to the west and towards the poles in the upper half of the layer and to the east and towards the equator in the bottom half. Since the layer is warmer on the bottom this circulation also carries an equatorward flux of heat. When the rotation vector is tilted from the vertical, angular momentum is always transported downwards and toward the equator. For rapidly rotating layers, the pressure field changes in a manner that tends to balance the Coriolis force on vertical motions. This results in an increase in the vertical heat flux as the rotation rate increases through a limited range of rotation rates.