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Keeling, RF, Shertz SR.  1992.  Seasonal and interannual variations in atmospheric oxygen and implications for the global carbon cycle. Nature. 358:723-727.   10.1038/358723a0   AbstractWebsite

Measurements of changes in atmospheric molecular oxygen using a new interferometric technique show that the O2 content of air varies seasonally in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres and is decreasing from year to year. The seasonal variations provide a new basis for estimating global rates of biological organic carbon production in the ocean, and the interannual decrease constrains estimates of the rate of anthropogenic CO2 uptake by the oceans.

Keeling, RF, Stephens BB, Najjar RG, Doney SC, Archer D, Heimann M.  1998.  Seasonal variations in the atmospheric O2/N2 ratio in relation to the kinetics of air-sea gas exchange. Global Biogeochemical Cycles. 12:141-163.   10.1029/97gb02339   AbstractWebsite

Observations of seasonal variations in the atmospheric O-2/N-2 ratio are reported at nine baseline sites in the northern and southern hemispheres. Concurrent CO2 measurements are used to correct for the effects of land biotic exchanges of O-2 on the O-2/N-2 cycles thus allowing the residual component of the cycles due to oceanic exchanges of O-2 and N-2 to be calculated. The residual oceanic cycles in the northern hemisphere are nearly diametrically out of phase with the cycles in the southern hemisphere. The maxima in both hemispheres occur in summer. In both hemispheres, the middle-latitude sea level stations show the cycles with largest amplitudes and earliest phasing. Somewhat smaller amplitudes are observed at the high-latitude stations, and much smaller amplitudes are observed at the tropical stations. A model for simulating the oceanic component of the atmospheric O-2/N-2 cycles is presented consisting of the TM2 atmospheric tracer transport model [Heimann, 1995] driven at the lower boundary by O-2 fluxes derived from observed O-2 saturation anomalies in surface waters and by N-2 fluxes derived from the net air-sea heat flux. The model is optimized to fit the observed atmospheric O-2/N-2 cycles by adjusting the air-sea gas-exchange velocity, which relates O-2 anomaly to O-2 flux. The optimum fit corresponds to spatially and temporally averaged exchange velocities of 24+/-6 cm/hr for the oceans north of 31 degrees N and 29+/-12 cm/hr for the oceans south of 31 degrees S. These velocities agree to within the uncertainties with the gas-exchange velocities expected from the Wanninkhof [1992] formulation of the air-sea gas-exchange velocity combined with European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts winds [Gibson et al., 1997] but are larger than the exchange velocities expected from the Liss and Merlivat [1986] relation using the same winds. The results imply that the gas-exchange velocity for O-2, like that of CO2, may be enhanced in the open ocean by processes that were not systematically accounted for in the experiments used to derive the Liss and Merlivat relation.

Stephens, BB, Keeling RF, Paplawsky WJ.  2003.  Shipboard measurements of atmospheric oxygen using a vacuum-ultraviolet absorption technique. Tellus Series B-Chemical and Physical Meteorology. 55:857-878.   10.1046/j.1435-6935.2003.00075.x   AbstractWebsite

We have developed an instrument for making continuous, field-based, part-per-million (ppm) level measurements of atmospheric oxygen concentration, and have implemented it on research cruises in the equatorial Pacific and Southern Oceans. The instrument detects changes in oxygen by the absorption of vacuum ultraviolet (VUV) radiation as it passes through a flowing gas stream, and has a precision comparable to existing laboratory techniques. Here we describe the VUV instrument and present atmospheric O-2 and CO2 data collected from the NOAA ship Ka' imimoana in the equatorial Pacific during April and May of 1998, and from the NSF ship Lawrence M. Gould in the Southern Ocean during October 1998. These data represent the first field-based measurements of atmospheric O-2, and significant additions to the O-2 datasets in these regions. Our boreal-springtime equatorial measurements reveal significant short-term variations in atmospheric O-2, resulting from variations in atmospheric mixing relative to the strong interhemispheric gradient. Our austral-springtime Southern Ocean observations confirm the low O-2 concentrations seen in flask samples from this region, allow the separate identification of oceanic and industrial influences on CO2, and provide evidence of a Southern Ocean source for CO2 at this time of year. These shipboard VUV observations do not provide any evidence to support coupled ocean-atmosphere model predictions of a large decreasing atmospheric O-2 gradient between equatorial and high-southern latitudes.

Fischer, ML, Parazoo N, Brophy K, Cui XG, Jeong S, Liu JJ, Keeling R, Taylor TE, Gurney K, Oda T, Graven H.  2017.  Simulating estimation of California fossil fuel and biosphere carbon dioxide exchanges combining in situ tower and satellite column observations. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres. 122:3653-3671.   10.1002/2016jd025617   AbstractWebsite

We report simulation experiments estimating the uncertainties in California regional fossil fuel and biosphere CO2 exchanges that might be obtained by using an atmospheric inverse modeling system driven by the combination of ground-based observations of radiocarbon and total CO2, together with column-mean CO2 observations from NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO-2). The work includes an initial examination of statistical uncertainties in prior models for CO2 exchange, in radiocarbon-based fossil fuel CO2 measurements, in OCO-2 measurements, and in a regional atmospheric transport modeling system. Using these nominal assumptions for measurement and model uncertainties, we find that flask measurements of radiocarbon and total CO2 at 10 towers can be used to distinguish between different fossil fuel emission data products for major urban regions of California. We then show that the combination of flask and OCO-2 observations yields posterior uncertainties in monthly-mean fossil fuel emissions of similar to 5-10%, levels likely useful for policy relevant evaluation of bottom-up fossil fuel emission estimates. Similarly, we find that inversions yield uncertainties in monthly biosphere CO2 exchange of similar to 6%-12%, depending on season, providing useful information on net carbon uptake in California's forests and agricultural lands. Finally, initial sensitivity analysis suggests that obtaining the above results requires control of systematic biases below approximately 0.5ppm, placing requirements on accuracy of the atmospheric measurements, background subtraction, and atmospheric transport modeling.

Nevison, CD, Keeling RF, Weiss RF, Popp BN, Jin X, Fraser PJ, Porter LW, Hess PG.  2005.  Southern Ocean ventilation inferred from seasonal cycles of atmospheric N2O and O2/N2 at Cape Grim, Tasmania. Tellus Series B-Chemical and Physical Meteorology. 57:218-229.   10.1111/j.1600-0889.2005.00143.x   AbstractWebsite

The seasonal cycle of atmospheric N(2)O is derived from a 10-yr observational record at Cape Grim, Tasmania (41 degrees S, 145 degrees E). After correcting for thermal and stratospheric influences, the observed atmospheric seasonal cycle is consistent with the seasonal outgassing of microbially produced N(2)O from the Southern Ocean, as predicted by an ocean biogeochemistry model coupled to an atmospheric transport model (ATM). The model-observation comparison suggests a Southern Ocean N(2)O source of similar to 0.9 Tg N yr(-1) and is the first study to reproduce observed atmospheric seasonal cycles in N(2)O using specified surface sources in forward ATM runs. However, these results are sensitive to the thermal and stratospheric corrections applied to the atmospheric N(2)O data. The correlation in subsurface waters between apparent oxygen utilization (AOU) and N(2)O production (approximated as the concentration in excess of atmospheric equilibrium Delta N(2)O) is exploited to infer the atmospheric seasonal cycle in O(2)/N(2) due to ventilation of O(2)-depleted subsurface waters. Subtracting this cycle from the observed, thermally corrected seasonal cycle in atmospheric O(2)/N(2) allows the residual O(2)/N(2) signal from surface net community production to be inferred. Because N(2)O is only produced in subsurface ocean waters, where it is correlated to O(2) consumption, atmospheric N(2)O observations provide a methodology for distinguishing the surface production and subsurface ventilation signals in atmospheric O(2)/N(2), which have previously been inseparable.

Yadav, V, Duren R, Mueller K, Verhulst KR, Nehrkorn T, Kim J, Weiss RF, Keeling R, Sander S, Fischer ML, Newman S, Falk M, Kuwayama T, Hopkins F, Rafiq T, Whetstone J, Miller C.  2019.  Spatio-temporally resolved methane fluxes from the Los Angeles megacity. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres. 124:5131-5148.   10.1029/2018jd030062   AbstractWebsite

We combine sustained observations from a network of atmospheric monitoring stations with inverse modeling to uniquely obtain spatiotemporal (3-km, 4-day) estimates of methane emissions from the Los Angeles megacity and the broader South Coast Air Basin for 2015-2016. Our inversions use customized and validated high-fidelity meteorological output from Weather Research Forecasting and Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian model for South Coast Air Basin and innovatively employ a model resolution matrix-based metric to disentangle the spatiotemporal information content of observations as manifested through estimated fluxes. We partially track and constrain fluxes from the Aliso Canyon natural gas leak and detect closure of the Puente Hills landfill, with no prior information. Our annually aggregated fluxes and their uncertainty excluding the Aliso Canyon leak period lie within the uncertainty bounds of the fluxes reported by the previous studies. Spatially, major sources of CH4 emissions in the basin were correlated with CH4-emitting infrastructure. Temporally, our findings show large seasonal variations in CH4 fluxes with significantly higher fluxes in winter in comparison to summer months, which is consistent with natural gas demand and anticorrelated with air temperature. Overall, this is the first study that utilizes inversions to detect both enhancement (Aliso Canyon leak) and reduction (Puente Hills) in CH4 fluxes due to the unintended events and policy decisions and thereby demonstrates the utility of inverse modeling for identifying variations in fluxes at fine spatiotemporal resolution.

Rodgers, KB, Aumont O, Fletcher SEM, Plancherel Y, Bopp L, Montegut CD, Iudicone D, Keeling RF, Madec G, Wanninkhof R.  2014.  Strong sensitivity of Southern Ocean carbon uptake and nutrient cycling to wind stirring. Biogeosciences. 11:4077-4098.   10.5194/bg-11-4077-2014   AbstractWebsite

Here we test the hypothesis that winds have an important role in determining the rate of exchange of CO2 between the atmosphere and ocean through wind stirring over the Southern Ocean. This is tested with a sensitivity study using an ad hoc parameterization of wind stirring in an ocean carbon cycle model, where the objective is to identify the way in which perturbations to the vertical density structure of the planetary boundary in the ocean impacts the carbon cycle and ocean biogeochemistry. Wind stirring leads to reduced uptake of CO2 by the Southern Ocean over the period 2000-2006, with a relative reduction with wind stirring on the order of 0.9 Pg C yr(-1) over the region south of 45 degrees S. This impacts not only the mean carbon uptake, but also the phasing of the seasonal cycle of carbon and other ocean biogeochemical tracers. Enhanced wind stirring delays the seasonal onset of stratification, and this has large impacts on both entrainment and the biological pump. It is also found that there is a strong reduction on the order of 25-30% in the concentrations of NO3 exported in Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) to wind stirring. This finds expression not only locally over the Southern Ocean, but also over larger scales through the impact on advected nutrients. In summary, the large sensitivity identified with the ad hoc wind stirring parameterization offers support for the importance of wind stirring for global ocean biogeochemistry through its impact over the Southern Ocean.

Betts, RA, Jones CD, Knight JR, Keeling RF, Kennedy JJ, Wiltshire AJ, Andrew RM, Aragao L.  2018.  A successful prediction of the record CO2 rise associated with the 2015/2016 El Nino. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences. 373   10.1098/rstb.2017.0301   AbstractWebsite

In early 2016, we predicted that the annual rise in carbon dioxide concentration at Mauna Loa would be the largest on record. Our forecast used a statistical relationship between observed and forecast sea surface temperatures in the Nino 3.4 region and the annual CO2 rise. Here, we provide a formal verification of that forecast. The observed rise of 3.4 ppm relative to 2015 was within the forecast range of 3.15 +/- 0.53 ppm, so the prediction was successful. A global terrestrial biosphere model supports the expectation that the El Nino weakened the tropical land carbon sink. We estimate that the El Nino contributed approximately 25% to the record rise in CO2, with 75% due to anthropogenic emissions. The 2015/2016 CO2 rise was greater than that following the previous large El Nino in 1997/1998, because anthropogenic emissions had increased. We had also correctly predicted that 2016 would be the first year with monthly mean CO2 above 400 ppm all year round. We now estimate that atmospheric CO2 at Mauna Loa would have remained above 400 ppm all year round in 2016 even if the El Nino had not occurred, contrary to our previous expectations based on a simple extrapolation of previous trends. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'The impact of the 2015/2016 El Nino on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications'.

Volk, T, Keeling R.  1993.  Summary of workshop on interannual variations in the carbon cycle. The Global carbon cycle. ( Heimann M, Ed.).:579-581., Berlin; New York: Springer-Verlag Abstract