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Staudigel, H, Albarede F, Blichert-Toft J, Edmond J, McDonough B, Jacobsen SB, Keeling R, Langmuir CH, Nielsen RL, Plank T, Rudnick R, Shaw HF, Shirey S, Veizer J, White W.  1998.  Geochemical Earth Reference Model (GERM): description of the initiative. Chemical Geology. 145:153-159.   10.1016/S0009-2541(97)00141-1   Abstract

The Geochemical Earth Reference Model (GERM) initiative is a grass root effort with the goals of establishing a community consensus on a chemical characterization of the Earth, its major reservoirs, and the flu?;es between them. The GERM initiative will provide a review of available scientific constraints for: (1) the composition of all major chemical reservoirs of the present-day Earth, from core to atmosphere; (2) present-day fluxes between reservoirs; (3) the Earth's chemical and isotopic evolution since accretion; and (4) the chemical and isotopic evolution of seawater as a record of global tectonics and climate, Even though most of the constraints for the GERM will be drawn from chemical data sets, some data will have to come from other disciplines, such as geophysics, nuclear physics, and cosmochemistry. GERM also includes a diverse chemical and physical data base and computer codes that are useful for our understanding of how the Earth works as a dynamic chemical and physical system. The GERM initiative is developed in an open community discussion on the World Wide Web (http://www-ep.es.llnl.gov/germ/germ-home.html) that is moderated by editors with responsibilities for different reservoirs, fluxes, data bases, and other scientific or technical aspects. These editors have agreed to lay out an initial, strawman GERM for their respective sections and to moderate community discussions leading to a first, preliminary consensus. The development of the GERM began with an initial workshop in Lyon, France in March, 1996. Since then, the GERM has continued to be developed on the Internet, punctuated by workshops and special sessions at professional meetings. A second GERM workshop will be held in La Jolla, CA USA on March 10-13, 1998. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All nights reserved.

Keeling, RF, Piper SC, Heimann M.  1996.  Global and hemispheric CO2 sinks deduced from changes in atmospheric O2 concentration. Nature. 381:218-221.   10.1038/381218a0   AbstractWebsite

THE global budget for sources and sinks of anthropogenic CO2 has been found to be out of balance unless the oceanic sink is supplemented by an additional 'missing sink', plausibly associated with land biota(1,25). A similar budgeting problem has been found for the Northern Hemisphere alone(2,3), suggesting that northern land biota may be the sought-after sink, although this interpretation is not unique(2-5); to distinguish oceanic and land carbon uptake, the budgets rely variously, and controversially, on ocean models(2,6,7), (CO2)-C-13/(CO2)-C-12 data(2,4,5), sparse oceanic observations of p(CO2) (ref. 3) or C-13/C-12 ratios of dissolved inorganic carbon, (4,5,8) or single-latitude trends in atmospheric O-2 as detected from changes in O-2/N-2 ratio.(9,10). Here we present an extensive O-2/N-2 data set which shows simultaneous trends in O-2/N-2 in both northern and southern hemispheres and allows the O-2/N-2 gradient between the two hemispheres to be quantified. The data are consistent with a budget in which, for the 1991-94 period, the global oceans and the northern land biota each removed the equivalent of approximately 30% of fossil-fuel CO2 emissions, while the tropical land biota as a whole were not a strong source or sink.

Le Quere, C, Peters GP, Andres RJ, Andrew RM, Boden TA, Ciais P, Friedlingstein P, Houghton RA, Marland G, Moriarty R, Sitch S, Tans P, Arneth A, Arvanitis A, Bakker DCE, Bopp L, Canadell JG, Chini LP, Doney SC, Harper A, Harris I, House JI, Jain AK, Jones SD, Kato E, Keeling RF, Goldewijk KK, Kortzinger A, Koven C, Lefevre N, Maignan F, Omar A, Ono T, Park GH, Pfeil B, Poulter B, Raupach MR, Regnier P, Rodenbeck C, Saito S, Schwinger J, Segschneider J, Stocker BD, Takahashi T, Tilbrook B, van Heuven S, Viovy N, Wanninkhof R, Wiltshire A, Zaehle S.  2014.  Global carbon budget 2013. Earth System Science Data. 6:235-263.   10.5194/essd-6-235-2014   AbstractWebsite

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production (E-FF) are based on energy statistics, while emissions from land-use change (E-LUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (G(ATM)) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (S-OCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated for the first time in this budget with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (S-LAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2 and land cover change (some including nitrogen-carbon interactions). All uncertainties are reported as +/- 1 sigma, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2003-2012), E-FF was 8.6 +/- 0.4 GtC yr(-1), E-LUC 0.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), G(ATM) 4.3 +/- 0.1 GtC yr(-1), S-OCEAN 2.5 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), and S-LAND 2.8 +/- 0.8 GtC yr(-1). For year 2012 alone, E-FF grew to 9.7 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), 2.2% above 2011, reflecting a continued growing trend in these emissions, GATM was 5.1 +/- 0.2 GtC yr(-1), S-OCEAN was 2.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), and assuming an E-LUC of 1.0 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1) (based on the 2001-2010 average), S-LAND was 2.7 +/- 0.9 GtC yr(-1). G(ATM) was high in 2012 compared to the 2003-2012 average, almost entirely reflecting the high EFF. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 392.52 +/- 0.10 ppm averaged over 2012. We estimate that E-FF will increase by 2.1% (1.1-3.1 %) to 9.9 +/- 0.5 GtC in 2013, 61% above emissions in 1990, based on projections of world gross domestic product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy. With this projection, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 535 +/- 55 GtC for 1870-2013, about 70% from E-FF (390 +/- 20 GtC) and 30% from E-LUC (145 +/- 50 GtC). This paper also documents any changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget from previous budgets (Le Quere et al., 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi: 10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2013_V2.3).

Le Quere, C, Moriarty R, Andrew RM, Peters GP, Ciais P, Friedlingstein P, Jones SD, Sitch S, Tans P, Arneth A, Boden TA, Bopp L, Bozec Y, Canadell JG, Chini LP, Chevallier F, Cosca CE, Harris I, Hoppema M, Houghton RA, House JI, Jain AK, Johannessen T, Kato E, Keeling RF, Kitidis V, Goldewijk KK, Koven C, Landa CS, Landschutzer P, Lenton A, Lima ID, Marland G, Mathis JT, Metzl N, Nojiri Y, Olsen A, Ono T, Peng S, Peters W, Pfeil B, Poulter B, Raupach MR, Regnier P, Rodenbeck C, Saito S, Salisbury JE, Schuster U, Schwinger J, Seferian R, Segschneider J, Steinhoff T, Stocker BD, Sutton AJ, Takahashi T, Tilbrook B, van der Werf GR, Viovy N, Wang YP, Wanninkhof R, Wiltshire A, Zeng N.  2015.  Global carbon budget 2014. Earth System Science Data. 7:47-85.   10.5194/essd-7-47-2015   AbstractWebsite

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (E-FF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (E-LUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (G(ATM)) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (S-OCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in S-OCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (S-LAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover-change (some including nitrogen-carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as +/- 1 sigma, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2004-2013), E-FF was 8.9 +/- 0.4 GtC yr(-1), E-LUC 0.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), G(ATM) 4.3 +/- 0.1 GtC yr(-1), S-OCEAN 2.6 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), and S-LAND 2.9 +/- 0.8 GtC yr(-1). For year 2013 alone, E-FF grew to 9.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), 2.3% above 2012, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, E-LUC was 0.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), G(ATM) was 5.4 +/- 0.2 GtC yr(-1), S-OCEAN was 2.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), and S-LAND was 2.5 +/- 0.9 GtC yr(-1). G(ATM) was high in 2013, reflecting a steady increase in E-FF and smaller and opposite changes between S-OCEAN and S-LAND compared to the past decade (2004-2013). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 395.31 +/- 0.10 ppm averaged over 2013. We estimate that E-FF will increase by 2.5% (1.3-3.5 %) to 10.1 +/- 0.6 GtC in 2014 (37.0 +/- 2.2 GtCO(2) yr(-1)), 65% above emissions in 1990, based on projections of world gross domestic product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy. From this projection of E-FF and assumed constant E-LUC for 2014, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 545 +/- 55 GtC (2000 +/- 200 GtCO(2)) for 1870-2014, about 75% from E-FF and 25% from E-LUC. This paper documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this living data set (Le Quere et al., 2013, 2014). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2014).

Le Quere, C, Moriarty R, Andrew RM, Canadell JG, Sitch S, Korsbakken JI, Friedlingstein P, Peters GP, Andres RJ, Boden TA, Houghton RA, House JI, Keeling RF, Tans P, Arneth A, Bakker DCE, Barbero L, Bopp L, Chang J, Chevallier F, Chini LP, Ciais P, Fader M, Feely RA, Gkritzalis T, Harris I, Hauck J, Ilyina T, Jain AK, Kato E, Kitidis V, Goldewijk KK, Koven C, Landschutzer P, Lauvset SK, Lefevre N, Lenton A, Lima ID, Metzl N, Millero F, Munro DR, Murata A, Nabel J, Nakaoka S, Nojiri Y, O'Brien K, Olsen A, Ono T, Perez FF, Pfeil B, Pierrot D, Poulter B, Rehder G, Rodenbeck C, Saito S, Schuster U, Schwinger J, Seferian R, Steinhoff T, Stocker BD, Sutton AJ, Takahashi T, Tilbrook B, van der Laan-Luijkx IT, van der Werf GR, van Heuven S, Vandemark D, Viovy N, Wiltshire A, Zaehle S, Zeng N.  2015.  Global Carbon Budget 2015. Earth System Science Data. 7:349-396.   10.5194/essd-7-349-2015   AbstractWebsite

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates as well as consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (E-FF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (E-LUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (G(ATM)) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (S-OCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in S-OCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (S-LAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover change (some including nitrogen-carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as +/- 1 sigma, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (20052014), E-FF was 9.0 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1) E-LUC was 0.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), GATM was 4.4 +/- 0.1 GtC yr(-1), S-OCEAN was 2.6 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), and S LAND was 3.0 +/- 0.8 GtC yr(-1). For the year 2014 alone, E FF grew to 9.8 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), 0.6% above 2013, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, albeit at a slower rate compared to the average growth of 2.2% yr(-1) that took place during 2005-2014. Also, for 2014, E-LUC was 1.1 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), G(ATM) was 3.9 +/- 0.2 GtC yr(-1), S-OCEAN was 2.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), and S-LAND was 4.1 +/- 0.9 GtC yr(-1). G(ATM) was lower in 2014 compared to the past decade (2005-2014), reflecting a larger S-LAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 397.15 +/- 0.10 ppm averaged over 2014. For 2015, preliminary data indicate that the growth in E-FF will be near or slightly below zero, with a projection of 0.6 [ range of 1.6 to C 0.5] %, based on national emissions projections for China and the USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy for the rest of the world. From this projection of E-FF and assumed constant E LUC for 2015, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 555 +/- 55 GtC (2035 +/- 205 GtCO(2)) for 1870-2015, about 75% from E FF and 25% from E LUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quere et al., 2015, 2014, 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi: 10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2015).

Le Quere, C, Andrew RM, Canadell JG, Sitch S, Korsbakken JI, Peters GP, Manning AC, Boden TA, Tans PP, Houghton RA, Keeling RF, Alin S, Andrews OD, Anthoni P, Barbero L, Bopp L, Chevallier F, Chini LP, Ciais P, Currie K, Delire C, Doney SC, Friedlingstein P, Gkritzalis T, Harris I, Hauck J, Haverd V, Hoppema M, Goldewijk KK, Jain AK, Kato E, Kortzinger A, Landschutzer P, Lefevre N, Lenton A, Lienert S, Lombardozzi D, Melton JR, Metzl N, Millero F, Monteiro PMS, Munro DR, Nabel J, Nakaoka S, O'Brien K, Olsen A, Omar AM, Ono T, Pierrot D, Poulter B, Rodenbeck C, Salisbury J, Schuster U, Schwinger J, Seferian R, Skjelvan I, Stocker BD, Sutton AJ, Takahashi T, Tian HQ, Tilbrook B, van der Laan-Luijkx IT, van der Werf GR, Viovy N, Walker AP, Wiltshire AJ, Zaehle S.  2016.  Global Carbon Budget 2016. Earth System Science Data. 8:605-649.   10.5194/essd-8-605-2016   AbstractWebsite

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere - the "global carbon budget" - is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates and consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (E-FF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (E-LUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (G(ATM)) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (S-OCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in S-OCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (S-LAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models. We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as +/- 1 sigma, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2006-2015), E-FF was 9.3 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), E-LUC 1.0 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), G(ATM) 4.5 +/- 0.1 GtC yr(-1), S-OCEAN 2.6 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), and S-LAND 3.1 +/- 0.9 GtC yr(-1). For year 2015 alone, the growth in E-FF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), showing a slowdown in growth of these emissions compared to the average growth of 1.8% yr(-1) that took place during 2006-2015. Also, for 2015, E-LUC was 1.3 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), G(ATM) was 6.3 +/- 0.2 GtC yr(-1), S-OCEAN was 3.0 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), and S-LAND was 1.9 +/- 0.9 GtC yr(-1). G(ATM) was higher in 2015 compared to the past decade (2006-2015), reflecting a smaller S-LAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 399.4 +/- 0.1 ppm averaged over 2015. For 2016, preliminary data indicate the continuation of low growth in E-FF with +0.2% (range of -1.0 to +1.8 %) based on national emissions projections for China and USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. In spite of the low growth of E-FF in 2016, the growth rate in atmospheric CO2 concentration is expected to be relatively high because of the persistence of the smaller residual terrestrial sink (S-LAND) in response to El Nino conditions of 2015-2016. From this projection of E-FF and assumed constant E-LUC for 2016, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach 565 +/- 55 GtC (2075 +/- 205 GtCO(2)) for 1870-2016, about 75% from E-FF and 25% from E-LUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quere et al., 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi: 10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2016).

Le Quere, C, Andrew RM, Friedlingstein P, Sitch S, Pongratz J, Manning AC, Korsbakken JI, Peters GP, Canadell JG, Jackson RB, Boden TA, Tans PP, Andrews OD, Arora VK, Bakker DCE, Barbero L, Becker M, Betts RA, Bopp L, Chevallier F, Chini LP, Ciais P, Cosca CE, Cross J, Currie K, Gasser T, Harris I, Hauck J, Haverd V, Houghton RA, Hunt CW, Hurtt G, Ilyina T, Jain AK, Kato E, Kautz M, Keeling RF, Goldewijk KK, Kortzinger A, Landschutzer P, Lefevre N, Lenton A, Lienert S, Lima I, Lombardozzi D, Metzl N, Millero F, Monteiro PMS, Munro DR, Nabel J, Nakaoka S, Nojiri Y, Padin XA, Peregon A, Pfeil B, Pierrot D, Poulter B, Rehder G, Reimer J, Rodenbeck C, Schwinger J, Seferian R, Skjelvan I, Stocker BD, Tian HQ, Tilbrook B, Tubiello FN, van der Laan-Luijkx IT, van der Werf GR, van Heuven S, Viovy N, Vuichard N, Walker AP, Watson AJ, Wiltshire AJ, Zaehle S, Zhu D.  2018.  Global Carbon Budget 2017. Earth System Science Data. 10:405-448.   10.5194/essd-10-405-2018   AbstractWebsite

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere - the "global carbon budget" - is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (E-FF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (E-LUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land-cover change data and bookkeeping models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (G(ATM)) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (S-OCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (S-LAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (B-IM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as +/- 1 sigma. For the last decade available (2007-2016), E-FF was 9.4 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), E-LUC 1.3 +/- 0.7 GtC yr(-1), G(ATM) 4.7 +/- 0.1 GtC yr(-1), S-OCEAN 2.4 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), and S-LAND 3.0 +/- 0.8 GtC yr(-1), with a budget imbalance B-IM of 0.6 GtC yr(-1) indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For year 2016 alone, the growth in E-FF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1). Also for 2016, E-LUC was 1.3 +/- 0.7 GtC yr(-1), G(ATM) was 6.1 +/- 0.2 GtC yr(-1), S-OCEAN was 2.6 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), and S-LAND was 2.7 +/- 1.0 GtC yr(-1), with a small B-IM of 0.3 GtC. G(ATM) continued to be higher in 2016 compared to the past decade (2007-2016), reflecting in part the high fossil emissions and the small S-LAND consistent with El Nino conditions. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 402.8 +/- 0.1 ppm averaged over 2016. For 2017, preliminary data for the first 6-9 months indicate a renewed growth in E-FF of +2.0% (range of 0.8 to 3.0 %) based on national emissions projections for China, USA, and India, and projections of gross domestic product (GDP) corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quere et al., 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). All results presented here can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2017 (GCP, 2017).

Le Quere, C, Andrew RM, Friedlingstein P, Sitch S, Hauck J, Pongratz J, Pickers PA, Korsbakken JI, Peters GP, Canadell JG, Arneth A, Arora VK, Barbero L, Bastos A, Bopp L, Chevallier F, Chini LP, Ciais P, Doney SC, Gkritzalis T, Goll DS, Harris I, Haverd V, Hoffman FM, Hoppema M, Houghton RA, Hurtt G, Ilyina T, Jain AK, Johannessen T, Jones CD, Kato E, Keeling RF, Goldewijk KK, Landschutzer P, Lefevre N, Lienert S, Liu Z, Lombardozzi D, Metzl N, Munro DR, Nabel J, Nakaoka S, Neill C, Olsen A, Ono T, Patra P, Peregon A, Peters W, Peylin P, Pfeil B, Pierrot D, Poulter B, Rehder G, Resplandy L, Robertson E, Rocher M, Rodenbeck C, Schuster U, Schwinger J, Seferian R, Skjelvan I, Steinhoff T, Sutton A, Tans PP, Tian HQ, Tilbrook B, Tubiello FN, van der Laan-Luijkx IT, van der Werf GR, Viovy N, Walker AP, Wiltshire AJ, Wright R, Zaehle S, Zheng B.  2018.  Global Carbon Budget 2018. Earth System Science Data. 10:2141-2194.   10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018   AbstractWebsite

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere - the "global carbon budget" - is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (E-FF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land use and land-use change (E-LUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land -use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (G(ATM)) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (S-OCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (S-LAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (B-IM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as +/- 1 sigma. For the last decade available (2008-2017), E-FF was 9.4 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), E-LUC 1.5 +/- 0.7 GtC yr(-1), G(ATM) 4.7 +/- 0.02 GtC yr(-1), S-OCEAN 2.4 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), and S-LAND 3.2 +/- 0.8 GtC yr(-1), with a budget imbalance B-IM of 0.5 GtC yr(-1) indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2017 alone, the growth in E-FF was about 1.6 % and emissions increased to 9.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1). Also for 2017, E-LUC was 1.4 +/- 0.7 GtC yr(-1), G(ATM) was 4.6 +/- 0.2 GtC yr(-1), S-OCEAN was 2.5 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), and S-LAND was 3.8 +/- 0.8 GtC yr(-1), with a B-IM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 405.0 +/- 0.1 ppm averaged over 2017. For 2018, preliminary data for the first 6-9 months indicate a renewed growth in E-FF of +2.7 % (range of 1.8 % to 3.7 %) based on national emission projections for China, the US, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. The analysis presented here shows that the mean and trend in the five components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period of 1959-2017, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr(-1) persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. A detailed comparison among individual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observations show (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land -use change emissions, (2) a persistent low agreement among the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent underestimation of the CO2 variability by ocean models, originating outside the tropics. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quere et al., 2018, 2016, 2015a, b, 2014, 2013). All results presented here can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2018.

Manning, AC, Keeling RF.  2006.  Global oceanic and land biotic carbon sinks from the Scripps atmospheric oxygen flask sampling network. Tellus Series B-Chemical and Physical Meteorology. 58:95-116.   10.1111/j.1600-0889.2006.00175.x   AbstractWebsite

Measurements of atmospheric O-2/N-2 ratio and CO2 concentration are presented over the period 1989-2003 from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography global flask sampling network. A formal framework is described for making optimal use of these data to estimate global oceanic and land biotic carbon sinks. For the 10-yr period from 1990 to 2000, the oceanic and land biotic sinks are estimated to be 1.9 +/- 0.6 and 1.2 +/- 0.8 Pg C yr(-1), respectively, while for the 10-yr period from 1993 to 2003, the sinks are estimated to be 2.2 +/- 0.6 and 0.5 +/- 0.7 Pg C yr(-1), respectively. These estimates, which are also compared with earlier results, make allowance for oceanic O-2 and N-2 outgassing based on observed changes in ocean heat content and estimates of the relative outgassing per unit warming. For example, for the 1993-2003 period we estimate outgassing of 0.45 x 10(14) mol O-2 yr(-1) and 0.20 x 10(14) mol N-2 yr(-1), which results in a correction of 0.5 Pg C yr(-1) on the oceanic and land biotic carbon sinks. The basis for this oceanic outgassing correction is reviewed in the context of recent model estimates. The main contributions to the uncertainty in the global sinks averages are from the estimates for oceanic outgassing and the estimates for fossil fuel combustion. The oceanic sink of 2.2 Pg C yr(-1) for 1993-2003 is consistent, within the uncertainties, with the integrated accumulation of anthropogenic CO2 in the ocean since 1800 as recently estimated from oceanic observations, assuming the oceanic sink varied over time as predicted by a box-diffusion model.

Rodenbeck, C, Keeling RF, Bakker DCE, Metz N, Olsen A, Sabine C, Heimann M.  2013.  Global surface-ocean p(CO2) and sea-air CO2 flux variability from an observation-driven ocean mixed-layer scheme. Ocean Science. 9:193-216.   10.5194/os-9-193-2013   AbstractWebsite

A temporally and spatially resolved estimate of the global surface-ocean CO2 partial pressure field and the sea air CO2 flux is presented, obtained by fitting a simple data-driven diagnostic model of ocean mixed-layer biogeochemistry to surface-ocean CO2 partial pressure data from the SOCAT v1.5 database. Results include seasonal, interannual, and short-term (daily) variations. In most regions, estimated seasonality is well constrained from the data, and compares well to the widely used monthly climatology by Takahashi et al. (2009). Comparison to independent data tentatively supports the slightly higher seasonal variations in our estimates in some areas. We also fitted the diagnostic model to atmospheric CO2 data. The results of this are less robust, but in those areas where atmospheric signals are not strongly influenced by land flux variability, their seasonality is nevertheless consistent with the results based on surface-ocean data. From a comparison with an independent seasonal climatology of surface-ocean nutrient concentration, the diagnostic model is shown to capture relevant surface-ocean biogeochemical processes reasonably well. Estimated interannual variations will be presented and discussed in a companion paper.

Manning, AC, Nisbet EG, Keeling RF, Liss PS.  2011.  Greenhouse gases in the Earth system: setting the agenda to 2030. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society a-Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences. 369:1885-1890.   10.1098/rsta.2011.0076   AbstractWebsite

What do we need to know about greenhouse gases? Over the next 20 years, how should scientists study the role of greenhouse gases in the Earth system and the changes that are taking place? These questions were addressed at a Royal Society scientific Discussion Meeting in London on 22-23 February 2010, with over 300 participants.