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Chan, LH, Edmond JM, Stallard RF, Broecker WS, Chung YC, Weiss RF, Ku TL.  1976.  Radium and barium at Geosecs stations in Atlantic and Pacific. Earth and Planetary Science Letters. 32:258-267.   10.1016/0012-821x(76)90066-2   AbstractWebsite

Ra and Ba show a general linear correlation in the oceanic water column within the uncertainties of the data: the slope of the line is about 4.6 nanomoles (nmoles) Ra/mole Ba, the intercept being at about 4 nmoles Ba/kg. This demonstrates the usefulness of Ba as a “chemical analogue” of Ra. Box-model calculations indicate that the average deep-water excess of Ra over Ba should be about 10% relative to the surface. This is consistent with the observations outside the deep northeast Pacific. However, the uncertainties in the data are such that the regional variation in the primary input cannot be resolved. In the deep waters of the North Pacific there is in fact a large excess of Ra relative to Ba. The one detailed profile presently available (204) can be explained consistently by a simple vertical advection-diffusion model.

O'Doherty, S, Cunnold DM, Manning A, Miller BR, Wang RHJ, Krummel PB, Fraser PJ, Simmonds PG, McCulloch A, Weiss RF, Salameh P, Porter LW, Prinn RG, Huang J, Sturrock G, Ryall D, Derwent RG, Montzka SA.  2004.  Rapid growth of hydrofluorocarbon 134a and hydrochlorofluorocarbons 141b, 142b, and 22 from Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) observations at Cape Grim, Tasmania, and Mace Head, Ireland. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres. 109   10.1029/2003jd004277   AbstractWebsite

[1] An update of in situ Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) hydrofluorocarbon (HFC)/hydrochlorofluorocarbon ( HCFC) measurements made at Mace Head, Ireland, and Cape Grim, Tasmania, from 1998 to 2002 are reported. HCFC-142b, HCFC-141b, HCFC-22 and HFC-134a show continued rapid growth in the atmosphere at mean rates of 1.1, 1.6, 6.0, and 3.4 ppt/year, respectively. Emissions inferred from measurements are compared to recent estimates from consumption data. Minor updates to the industry estimates of emissions are reported together with a discussion of how to best determine OH concentrations from these trace gas measurements. In addition, AGAGE measurements and derived emissions are compared to those deduced from NOAA-Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory flask measurements ( which are mostly made at different locations). European emission estimates obtained from Mace Head pollution events using the Nuclear Accident Model ( NAME) dispersion model and the best fit algorithm ( known as simulated annealing) are presented as 3-year rolling average emissions over Europe for the period 1999-2001. Finally, the measurements of HCFC-141b, HCFC-142b, and HCFC-22 discussed in this paper have been combined with the Atmospheric Lifetime Experiment (ALE)/Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (GAGE)/AGAGE measurements of CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-113, CCl4, and CH3CCl3 to produce the evolution of tropospheric chlorine loading.

Fang, XK, Park S, Saito T, Tunnicliffe R, Ganesan AL, Rigby M, Li SL, Yokouchi Y, Fraser PJ, Harth CM, Krummel PB, Muhle J, O'Doherty S, Salameh PK, Simmonds PG, Weiss RF, Young D, Lunt MF, Manning AJ, Gressentl A, Prinn RG.  2019.  Rapid increase in ozone-depleting chloroform emissions from China. Nature Geoscience. 12:89-+.   10.1038/s41561-018-0278-2   AbstractWebsite

Chloroform contributes to the depletion of the stratospheric ozone layer. However, due to its short lifetime and predominantly natural sources, it is not included in the Montreal Protocol that regulates the production and uses of ozone-depleting substances. Atmospheric chloroform mole fractions were relatively stable or slowly decreased during 1990-2010. Here we show that global chloroform mole fractions increased after 2010, based on in situ chloroform measurements at seven stations around the world. We estimate that the global chloroform emissions grew at the rate of 3.5% yr(-1) between 2010 and 2015 based on atmospheric model simulations. We used two regional inverse modelling approaches, combined with observations from East Asia, to show that emissions from eastern China grew by 49 (41-59) Gg between 2010 and 2015, a change that could explain the entire increase in global emissions. We suggest that if chloroform emissions continuously grow at the current rate, the recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer above Antarctica could be delayed by several years.

Rigby, M, Prinn RG, O'Doherty S, Montzka SA, McCulloch A, Harth CM, Muhle J, Salameh PK, Weiss RF, Young D, Simmonds PG, Hall BD, Dutton GS, Nance D, Mondeel DJ, Elkins JW, Krummel PB, Steele LP, Fraser PJ.  2013.  Re-evaluation of the lifetimes of the major CFCs and CH3CCl3 using atmospheric trends. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. 13:2691-2702.   10.5194/acp-13-2691-2013   AbstractWebsite

Since the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer and its amendments came into effect, growth rates of the major ozone depleting substances (ODS), particularly CFC-11, -12 and -113 and CH3CCl3, have declined markedly, paving the way for global stratospheric ozone recovery. Emissions have now fallen to relatively low levels, therefore the rate at which this recovery occurs will depend largely on the atmospheric lifetime of these compounds. The first ODS measurements began in the early 1970s along with the first lifetime estimates calculated by considering their atmospheric trends. We now have global mole fraction records spanning multiple decades, prompting this lifetime re-evaluation. Using surface measurements from the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Global Monitoring Division (NOAA GMD) from 1978 to 2011, we estimated the lifetime of CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-113 and CH3CCl3 usin!

Rigby, M, Prinn RG, O'Doherty S, Miller BR, Ivy D, Muhle J, Harth CM, Salameh PK, Arnold T, Weiss RF, Krummel PB, Steele LP, Fraser PJ, Young D, Simmonds PG.  2014.  Recent and future trends in synthetic greenhouse gas radiative forcing. Geophysical Research Letters. 41:2623-2630.   10.1002/2013gl059099   AbstractWebsite

Atmospheric measurements show that emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons are now the primary drivers of the positive growth in synthetic greenhouse gas (SGHG) radiative forcing. We infer recent SGHG emissions and examine the impact of future emissions scenarios, with a particular focus on proposals to reduce HFC use under the Montreal Protocol. If these proposals are implemented, overall SGHG radiative forcing could peak at around 355mWm(-2) in 2020, before declining by approximately 26% by 2050, despite continued growth of fully fluorinated greenhouse gas emissions. Compared to no HFC policy projections, this amounts to a reduction in radiative forcing of between 50 and 240mWm(-2) by 2050 or a cumulative emissions saving equivalent to 0.5 to 2.8years of CO2 emissions at current levels. However, more complete reporting of global HFC emissions is required, as less than half of global emissions are currently accounted for.

Simmonds, PG, Rigby M, McCulloch A, Vollmer MK, Henne S, Muhle J, O'Doherty S, Manning AJ, Krummel PB, Fraser PJ, Young D, Weiss RF, Salameh PK, Harth CM, Reimann S, Trudinger CM, Steele LP, Wang RHJ, Ivy DJ, Prinn RG, Mitrevski B, Etheridge DM.  2018.  Recent increases in the atmospheric growth rate and emissions of HFC-23 (CHF3) and the link to HCFC-22 (CHClF2) production. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. 18:4153-4169.   10.5194/acp-18-4153-2018   AbstractWebsite

High frequency measurements of trifluoromethane (HFC-23, CHF3), a potent hydrofluorocarbon greenhouse gas, largely emitted to the atmosphere as a by-product of the production of the hydrochlorofluorocarbon HCFC-22 (CHClF2), at five core stations of the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) network, combined with measurements on firn air, old Northern Hemisphere air samples and Cape Grim Air Archive (CGAA) air samples, are used to explore the current and historic changes in the atmospheric abundance of HFC-23. These measurements are used in combination with the AGAGE 2-D atmospheric 12-box model and a Bayesian inversion methodology to determine model atmospheric mole fractions and the history of global HFC-23 emissions. The global modelled annual mole fraction of HFC-23 in the background atmosphere was 28.9 +/- 0.6 pmol mol(-1) at the end of 2016, representing a 28% increase from 22.6 +/- 0.4 pmol mol(-1) in 2009. Over the same time frame, the modelled mole fraction of HCFC-22 increased by 19% from 199 +/- 2 to 237 +/- 2 pmol mol(-1). However, unlike HFC-23, the annual average HCFC-22 growth rate slowed from 2009 to 2016 at an annual average rate of -0.5 pmol mol(-1) yr(-2). This slowing atmospheric growth is consistent with HCFC-22 moving from dispersive (high fractional emissions) to feedstock (low fractional emissions) uses, with HFC-23 emissions remaining as a consequence of incomplete mitigation from all HCFC-22 production. Our results demonstrate that, following a minimum in HFC-23 global emissions in 2009 of 9.6 +/- 0.6, emissions increased to a maximum in 2014 of 14.5 +/- 0.6 Gg yr(-1) and then declined to 12.7 +/- 0.6 Gg yr(-1) (157 MtCO(2) eq.yr(-1)) in 2016. The 2009 emissions minimum is consistent with estimates based on national reports and is likely a response to the implementation of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) to mitigate HFC-23 emissions by incineration in developing (non-Annex 1) countries under the Kyoto Protocol. Our derived cumulative emissions of HFC-23 during 20102016 were 89 +/- 2 Gg (1.1 +/- 0.2 GtCO(2) eq.), which led to an increase in radiative forcing of 1.0 +/- 0.1mWm(-2) over the same period. Although the CDM had reduced global HFC-23 emissions, it cannot now offset the higher emissions from increasing HCFC-22 production in non-Annex 1 countries, as the CDM was closed to new entrants in 2009. We also find that the cumulative European HFC-23 emissions from 2010 to 2016 were similar to 1.3 Gg, corresponding to just 1.5% of cumulative global HFC-23 emissions over this same period. The majority of the increase in global HFC-23 emissions since 2010 is attributed to a delay in the adoption of mitigation technologies, predominantly in China and East Asia. However, a reduction in emissions is anticipated, when the Kigali 2016 amendment to the Montreal Protocol, requiring HCFC and HFC production facilities to introduce destruction of HFC-23, is fully implemented.

Lunt, MF, Rigby M, Ganesan AL, Manning AJ, Prinn RG, O'Doherty S, Muhle J, Harth CM, Salameh PK, Arnold T, Weiss RF, Saito T, Yokouchi Y, Krummel PB, Steele LP, Fraser PJ, Li SL, Park S, Reimann S, Vollmer MK, Lunder C, Hermansen O, Schmidbauer N, Maione M, Arduini J, Young D, Simmonds PG.  2015.  Reconciling reported and unreported HFC emissions with atmospheric observations. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 112:5927-5931.   10.1073/pnas.1420247112   AbstractWebsite

We infer global and regional emissions of five of the most abundant hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) using atmospheric measurements from the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment and the National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan, networks. We find that the total CO2-equivalent emissions of the five HFCs from countries that are required to provide detailed, annual reports to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) increased from 198 (175-221) Tg-CO2-eq.y(-1) in 2007 to 275 (246-304) Tg-CO2-eq.y(-1) in 2012. These global warming potential-weighted aggregated emissions agree well with those reported to the UNFCCC throughout this period and indicate that the gap between reported emissions and global HFC emissions derived from atmospheric trends is almost entirely due to emissions from nonreporting countries. However, our measurement-based estimates of individual HFC species suggest that emissions, from reporting countries, of the most abundant HFC, HFC-134a, were only 79% (63-95%) of the UNFCCC inventory total, while other HFC emissions were significantly greater than the reported values. These results suggest that there are inaccuracies in the reporting methods for individual HFCs, which appear to cancel when aggregated together.

Walker, SJ, Weiss RF, Salameh PK.  2000.  Reconstructed histories of the annual mean atmospheric mole fractions for the halocarbons CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-113, and carbon tetrachloride. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans. 105:14285-14296.   10.1029/1999jc900273   AbstractWebsite

Annual mean mixing ratios for the halocarbons CFC-11 (CCl3F), CFC-12 (CCl2F2), CFC-113 (CClF2CCl2F), and carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) have been determined from their first year of industrial production through 1998. From the late 1970s (in the case of CFC-11 and CFC-12) or early 1980s tin the case of CFC-113 and carbon tetrachloride) the reported mixing ratios have been determined from experimental observations made by the Atmospheric Lifetime Experiment/Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment/Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment program. For years prior to these times we have used estimates of industrial emissions and atmospheric lifetimes to calculate historic concentrations. The likely error bounds of the annual mean values are also reported here. Errors in the annual mean mixing ratio may primarily be a result of incorrect industrial emissions data, an incorrect atmospheric lifetime,or uncertainty in the ALE/GAGE/AGAGE observations. Each of these possible sources of error has been considered separately. These results show that atmospheric concentrations for each of these compounds have experienced a rapid rise in the early part of their production. Tt is only within the past decade that rise rates have decreased sharply and (except in the case of CFC-12) in the past few years that atmospheric concentrations have begun to decrease. The uncertainties in the reconstructed histories are a similar proportion for each of the chlorofluorocarbons (<4% for most of the history). However, uncertainty in the history of carbon tetrachloride is much greater (up to 12%, and this is mainly the result of poor knowledge of CCl4 emissions.

Kim, J, Li S, Kim KR, Stohl A, Muhle J, Kim SK, Park MK, Kang DJ, Lee G, Harth CM, Salameh PK, Weiss RF.  2010.  Regional atmospheric emissions determined from measurements at Jeju Island, Korea: Halogenated compounds from China. Geophysical Research Letters. 37   10.1029/2010gl043263   AbstractWebsite

High-frequency in-situ measurements of a wide range of halogenated compounds including chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), halons, hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorinated compounds (PFCs), sulfur hexafluoride (SF(6)), and other chlorinated and brominated compounds have been made at Gosan (Jeju Island, Korea). Regional emissions of HCFC-22 (CHClF(2)) calculated from inverse modeling were combined with interspecies correlation methods to estimate national emissions for China, a major emitter of industrial halogenated gases. Our results confirm the signs of successful phase-out of primary ozone-depleting species such as CFCs, halons and many chlorinated or brominated compounds, along with substantial emissions of replacement HCFCs. Emissions derived for HFCs, PFCs, and SF6 were compared to published estimates and found to be a significant fraction of global totals. Overall, Chinese emissions of the halogenated compounds discussed here represent 19(14-17)% and 20(15-26)% of global emissions when evaluated in terms of their Ozone Depletion Potentials and 100-year Global Warming Potentials, respectively. Citation: Kim, J., et al. (2010), Regional atmospheric emissions determined from measurements at Jeju Island, Korea: Halogenated compounds from China, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L12801, doi: 10.1029/2010GL043263.

Rigby, M, Prinn RG, Fraser PJ, Simmonds PG, Langenfelds RL, Huang J, Cunnold DM, Steele LP, Krummel PB, Weiss RF, O'Doherty S, Salameh PK, Wang HJ, Harth CM, Muhle J, Porter LW.  2008.  Renewed growth of atmospheric methane. Geophysical Research Letters. 35   10.1029/2008gl036037   AbstractWebsite

Following almost a decade with little change in global atmospheric methane mole fraction, we present measurements from the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) and the Australian Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) networks that show renewed growth starting near the beginning of 2007. Remarkably, a similar growth rate is found at all monitoring locations from this time until the latest measurements. We use these data, along with an inverse method applied to a simple model of atmospheric chemistry and transport, to investigate the possible drivers of the rise. Specifically, the relative roles of an increase in emission rate or a decrease in concentration of the hydroxyl radical, the largest methane sink, are examined. We conclude that: 1) if the annual mean hydroxyl radical concentration did not change, a substantial increase in emissions was required simultaneously in both hemispheres between 2006 and 2007; 2) if a small drop in the hydroxyl radical concentration occurred, consistent with AGAGE methyl chloroform measurements, the emission increase is more strongly biased to the Northern Hemisphere. Citation: Rigby, M., et al. (2008), Renewed growth of atmospheric methane, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L22805, doi: 10.1029/2008GL036037.

Klatt, O, Roether W, Hoppema M, Bulsiewicz K, Fleischmann U, Rodehacke C, Fahrbach E, Weiss RF, Bullister JL.  2002.  Repeated CFC sections at the Greenwich Meridian in the Weddell Sea. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans. 107   10.1029/2000jc000731   AbstractWebsite

[1] Repeated observations of the tracer chlorofluorocarbon-11 (CFC-11) for a section along the Greenwich Meridian from Antarctica (70degreesS) to about 50 S are presented for the period 1984-1998. The CFC sections display a highly persistent pattern. A middepth CFC minimum in the central Weddell Sea is bounded laterally by elevated levels of dissolved CFCs at the southern margin of the Weddell Basin and by a column of elevated CFC concentrations around 55degreesS near to the northern margin. Part of the latter column covers waters of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, which indicates that a moderate portion of these waters was ventilated in the Weddell Sea. Deep CFC maxima adjoining the southern and northern margins of the Weddell Basin indicate advective cores of recently ventilated waters. The southern core supports previous notions of deep water import into the Weddell Sea from the east. For all deep and bottom waters, the portions ventilated on the CFC timescale (similar to50 years) are small. Effective initial CFC saturations for these portions are estimated to be between 60 and 70%, using in part new data from off the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf. For various CFC features along the section (mostly advective cores), ventilated fractions and mean ages of these fractions were obtained (with error limits). The procedure was to fit an age distribution of a prescribed form to CFC-11 time series for these features, constructed from the various realizations of the CFC section. The ages are between 3 and 19 years, and the ventilated fractions range between 6 and 23%, indicating a rather limited ventilation of the interior Weddell Sea subsurface layer waters on the CFC timescale. It is shown that the concurrent CFC-12 data provide little additional information. The work demonstrates a high information content of repeated tracer observations and encourages similar approaches also in other ocean regions.

Rigby, M, Montzka SA, Prinn RG, White JWC, Young D, O’Doherty S, Lunt MF, Ganesan AL, Manning AJ, Simmonds PG, Salameh PK, Harth CM, Mühle J, Weiss RF, Fraser PJ, Steele PL, Krummel PB, McCulloch A, Park S.  2017.  Role of atmospheric oxidation in recent methane growth. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.   10.1073/pnas.1616426114   Abstract

The growth in global methane (CH4) concentration, which had been ongoing since the industrial revolution, stalled around the year 2000 before resuming globally in 2007. We evaluate the role of the hydroxyl radical (OH), the major CH4 sink, in the recent CH4 growth. We also examine the influence of systematic uncertainties in OH concentrations on CH4 emissions inferred from atmospheric observations. We use observations of 1,1,1-trichloroethane (CH3CCl3), which is lost primarily through reaction with OH, to estimate OH levels as well as CH3CC3 emissions, which have uncertainty that previously limited the accuracy of OH estimates. We find a 64–70% probability that a decline in OH has contributed to the post-2007 methane rise. Our median solution suggests that CH4 emissions increased relatively steadily during the late 1990s and early 2000s, after which growth was more modest. This solution obviates the need for a sudden statistically significant change in total CH4 emissions around the year 2007 to explain the atmospheric observations and can explain some of the decline in the atmospheric 13CH4/12CH4 ratio and the recent growth in C2H6. Our approach indicates that significant OH-related uncertainties in the CH4 budget remain, and we find that it is not possible to implicate, with a high degree of confidence, rapid global CH4 emissions changes as the primary driver of recent trends when our inferred OH trends and these uncertainties are considered.

McNorton, J, Chipperfield MP, Gloor M, Wilson C, Feng WH, Hayman GD, Rigby M, Krummel PB, O'Doherty S, Prinn RG, Weiss RF, Young D, Dlugokencky E, Montzka SA.  2016.  Role of OH variability in the stalling of the global atmospheric CH4 growth rate from 1999 to 2006. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. 16:7943-7956.   10.5194/acp-16-7943-2016   AbstractWebsite

The growth in atmospheric methane (CH4) concentrations over the past 2 decades has shown large variability on a timescale of several years. Prior to 1999 the globally averaged CH4 concentration was increasing at a rate of 6.0aEuro-ppbaEuro-yr(-1), but during a stagnation period from 1999 to 2006 this growth rate slowed to 0.6aEuro-ppbaEuro-yr(-1). From 2007 to 2009 the growth rate again increased to 4.9aEuro-ppbaEuro-yr(-1). These changes in growth rate are usually ascribed to variations in CH4 emissions. We have used a 3-D global chemical transport model, driven by meteorological reanalyses and variations in global mean hydroxyl (OH) concentrations derived from CH3CCl3 observations from two independent networks, to investigate these CH4 growth variations. The model shows that between 1999 and 2006 changes in the CH4 atmospheric loss contributed significantly to the suppression in global CH4 concentrations relative to the pre-1999 trend. The largest factor in this is relatively small variations in global mean OH on a timescale of a few years, with minor contributions of atmospheric transport of CH4 to its sink region and of atmospheric temperature. Although changes in emissions may be important during the stagnation period, these results imply a smaller variation is required to explain the observed CH4 trends. The contribution of OH variations to the renewed CH4 growth after 2007 cannot be determined with data currently available.