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Rigby, M, Park S, Saito T, Western LM, Redington AL, Fang X, Henne S, Manning AJ, Prinn RG, Dutton GS, Fraser PJ, Ganesan AL, Hall BD, Harth CM, Kim J, Kim KR, Krummel PB, Lee T, Li S, Liang Q, Lunt MF, Montzka SA, Muhle J, O'Doherty S, Park MK, Reimann S, Salameh PK, Simmonds P, Tunnicliffe RL, Weiss RF, Yokouchi Y, Young D.  2019.  Increase in CFC-11 emissions from eastern China based on atmospheric observations. Nature. 569:546-+.   10.1038/s41586-019-1193-4   AbstractWebsite

The recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer relies on the continued decline in the atmospheric concentrations of ozone-depleting gases such as chlorofluorocarbons(1). The atmospheric concentration of trichlorofluoromethane (CFC-11), the second-most abundant chlorofluorocarbon, has declined substantially since the mid-1990s(2). A recently reported slowdown in the decline of the atmospheric concentration of CFC-11 after 2012, however, suggests that global emissions have increased(3,4). A concurrent increase in CFC-11 emissions from eastern Asia contributes to the global emission increase, but the location and magnitude of this regional source are unknown(3). Here, using high-frequency atmospheric observations from Gosan, South Korea, and Hateruma, Japan, together with global monitoring data and atmospheric chemical transport model simulations, we investigate regional CFC-11 emissions from eastern Asia. We show that emissions from eastern mainland China are 7.0 +/- 3.0 (+/- 1 standard deviation) gigagrams per year higher in 2014-2017 than in 2008-2012, and that the increase in emissions arises primarily around the northeastern provinces of Shandong and Hebei. This increase accounts for a substantial fraction (at least 40 to 60 per cent) of the global rise in CFC-11 emissions. We find no evidence for a significant increase in CFC-11 emissions from any other eastern Asian countries or other regions of the world where there are available data for the detection of regional emissions. The attribution of any remaining fraction of the global CFC-11 emission rise to other regions is limited by the sparsity of long-term measurements of sufficient frequency near potentially emissive regions. Several considerations suggest that the increase in CFC-11 emissions from eastern mainland China is likely to be the result of new production and use, which is inconsistent with the Montreal Protocol agreement to phase out global chlorofluorocarbon production by 2010.

Thompson, RL, Stohl A, Zhou LX, Dlugokencky E, Fukuyama Y, Tohjima Y, Kim SY, Lee H, Nisbet EG, Fisher RE, Lowry D, Weiss RF, Prinn RG, O'Doherty S, Young D, White JWC.  2015.  Methane emissions in East Asia for 2000-2011 estimated using an atmospheric Bayesian inversion. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres. 120:4352-4369.   10.1002/2014jd022394   AbstractWebsite

We present methane (CH4) emissions for East Asia from a Bayesian inversion of CH4 mole fraction and stable isotope (C-13-CH4) measurements. Emissions were estimated at monthly resolution from 2000 to 2011. A posteriori, the total emission for East Asia increased from 434 to 594Tgyr(-1) between 2000 and 2011, owing largely to the increase in emissions from China, from 394 to 544Tgyr(-1), while emissions in other East Asian countries remained relatively stable. For China, South Korea, and Japan, the total emissions were smaller than the prior estimates (i.e., Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research 4.2 FT2010 for anthropogenic emissions) by an average of 29%, 20%, and 23%, respectively. For Mongolia, Taiwan, and North Korea, the total emission was less than 2Tgyr(-1) and was not significantly different from the prior. The largest reductions in emissions, compared to the prior, occurred in summer in regions important for rice agriculture suggesting that this source is overestimated in the prior. Furthermore, an analysis of the isotope data suggests that the prior underestimates emissions from landfills and ruminant animals for winter 2010 to spring 2011 (no data available for other times). The inversion also found a lower average emission trend for China, 1.2Tgyr(-1) compared to 2.8Tgyr(-1) in the prior. This trend was not constant, however, and increased significantly after 2005, up to 2.0Tgyr(-1). Overall, the changes in emissions from China explain up to 40% of the increase in global emissions in the 2000s.

Kim, J, Li S, Kim KR, Stohl A, Muhle J, Kim SK, Park MK, Kang DJ, Lee G, Harth CM, Salameh PK, Weiss RF.  2010.  Regional atmospheric emissions determined from measurements at Jeju Island, Korea: Halogenated compounds from China. Geophysical Research Letters. 37   10.1029/2010gl043263   AbstractWebsite

High-frequency in-situ measurements of a wide range of halogenated compounds including chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), halons, hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorinated compounds (PFCs), sulfur hexafluoride (SF(6)), and other chlorinated and brominated compounds have been made at Gosan (Jeju Island, Korea). Regional emissions of HCFC-22 (CHClF(2)) calculated from inverse modeling were combined with interspecies correlation methods to estimate national emissions for China, a major emitter of industrial halogenated gases. Our results confirm the signs of successful phase-out of primary ozone-depleting species such as CFCs, halons and many chlorinated or brominated compounds, along with substantial emissions of replacement HCFCs. Emissions derived for HFCs, PFCs, and SF6 were compared to published estimates and found to be a significant fraction of global totals. Overall, Chinese emissions of the halogenated compounds discussed here represent 19(14-17)% and 20(15-26)% of global emissions when evaluated in terms of their Ozone Depletion Potentials and 100-year Global Warming Potentials, respectively. Citation: Kim, J., et al. (2010), Regional atmospheric emissions determined from measurements at Jeju Island, Korea: Halogenated compounds from China, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L12801, doi: 10.1029/2010GL043263.