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Saikawa, E, Rigby M, Prinn RG, Montzka SA, Miller BR, Kuijpers LJM, Fraser PJB, Vollmer MK, Saito T, Yokouchi Y, Harth CM, Muhle J, Weiss RF, Salameh PK, Kim J, Li S, Park S, Kim KR, Young D, O'Doherty S, Simmonds PG, McCulloch A, Krummel PB, Steele LP, Lunder C, Hermansen O, Maione M, Arduini J, Yao B, Zhou LX, Wang HJ, Elkins JW, Hall B.  2012.  Global and regional emission estimates for HCFC-22. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. 12:10033-10050.   10.5194/acp-12-10033-2012   AbstractWebsite

HCFC-22 (CHClF2, chlorodifluoromethane) is an ozone-depleting substance (ODS) as well as a significant greenhouse gas (GHG). HCFC-22 has been used widely as a refrigerant fluid in cooling and air-conditioning equipment since the 1960s, and it has also served as a traditional substitute for some chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) controlled under the Montreal Protocol. A low frequency record on tropospheric HCFC-22 since the late 1970s is available from measurements of the Southern Hemisphere Cape Grim Air Archive (CGAA) and a few Northern Hemisphere air samples (mostly from Trinidad Head) using the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) instrumentation and calibrations. Since the 1990s high-frequency, high-precision, in situ HCFC-22 measurements have been collected at these AGAGE stations. Since 1992, the Global Monitoring Division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA/ESRL) has also collected flasks on a weekly basis from remote sites across the globe and analyzed them for a suite of halocarbons including HCFC-22. Additionally, since 2006 flasks have been collected approximately daily at a number of tower sites across the US and analyzed for halocarbons and other gases at NOAA. All results show an increase in the atmospheric mole fractions of HCFC-22, and recent data show a growth rate of approximately 4% per year, resulting in an increase in the background atmospheric mole fraction by a factor of 1.7 from 1995 to 2009. Using data on HCFC-22 consumption submitted to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), as well as existing bottom-up emission estimates, we first create globally-gridded a priori HCFC-22 emissions over the 15 yr since 1995. We then use the three-dimensional chemical transport model, Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers version 4 (MOZART v4), and a Bayesian inverse method to estimate global as well as regional annual emissions. Our inversion indicates that the global HCFC-22 emissions have an increasing trend between 1995 and 2009. We further find a surge in HCFC-22 emissions between 2005 and 2009 from developing countries in Asia - the largest emitting region including China and India. Globally, substantial emissions continue despite production and consumption being phased out in developed countries currently.

Saikawa, E, Prinn RG, Dlugokencky E, Ishijima K, Dutton GS, Hall BD, Langenfelds R, Tohjima Y, Machida T, Manizza M, Rigby M, O'Doherty S, Patra PK, Harth CM, Weiss RF, Krummel PB, van der Schoot M, Fraser PJ, Steele LP, Aoki S, Nakazawa T, Elkins JW.  2014.  Global and regional emissions estimates for N2O. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. 14:4617-4641.   10.5194/acp-14-4617-2014   AbstractWebsite

We present a comprehensive estimate of nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions using observations and models from 1995 to 2008. High-frequency records of tropospheric N2O are available from measurements at Cape Grim, Tasmania; Cape Matatula, American Samoa; Ragged Point, Barbados; Mace Head, Ireland; and at Trinidad Head, California using the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) instrumentation and calibrations. The Global Monitoring Division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA/ESRL) has also collected discrete air samples in flasks and in situ measurements from remote sites across the globe and analyzed them for a suite of species including N2O. In addition to these major networks, we include in situ and aircraft measurements from the National Institute of Environmental Studies (NIES) and flask measurements from the Tohoku University and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) networks. All measurements show increasing atmospheric mole fractions of N2O, with a varying growth rate of 0.1-0.7% per year, resulting in a 7.4% increase in the background atmospheric mole fraction between 1979 and 2011. Using existing emission inventories as well as bottom-up process modeling results, we first create globally gridded a priori N2O emissions over the 37 years since 1975. We then use the three-dimensional chemical transport model, Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers version 4 (MOZART v4), and a Bayesian inverse method to estimate global as well as regional annual emissions for five source sectors from 13 regions in the world. This is the first time that all of these measurements from multiple networks have been combined to determine emissions. Our inversion indicates that global and regional N2O emissions have an increasing trend between 1995 and 2008. Despite large uncertainties, a significant increase is seen from the Asian agricultural sector in recent years, most likely due to an increase in the use of nitrogenous fertilizers, as has been suggested by previous studies.

Saunois, M, Bousquet P, Poulter B, Peregon A, Ciais P, Canadell JG, Dlugokencky EJ, Etiope G, Bastviken D, Houweling S, Janssens-Maenhout G, Tubiello FN, Castaldi S, Jackson RB, Alexe M, Arora VK, Beerling DJ, Bergamaschi P, Blake DR, Brailsford G, Bruhwiler L, Crevoisier C, Crill P, Covey K, Frankenberg C, Gedney N, Hoglund-Isaksson L, Ishizawa M, Ito A, Joos F, Kim HS, Kleinen T, Krummel P, Lamarque JF, Langenfelds R, Locatelli R, Machida T, Maksyutov S, Melton JR, Morino I, Naik V, O'Doherty S, Parmentier FJ, Patra PK, Peng CH, Peng SS, Peters GP, Pison I, Prinn R, Ramonet M, Riley WJ, Saito M, Santini M, Schroeder R, Simpson IJ, Spahni R, Takizawa A, Thornton BF, Tian HQ, Tohjima Y, Viovy N, Voulgarakis A, Weiss R, Wilton DJ, Wiltshire A, Worthy D, Wunch D, Xu XY, Yoshida Y, Zhang BW, Zhang Z, Zhu QA.  2017.  Variability and quasi-decadal changes in the methane budget over the period 2000-2012. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. 17:11135-11161.   10.5194/acp-17-11135-2017   AbstractWebsite

Following the recent Global Carbon Project (GCP) synthesis of the decadal methane (CH4) budget over 2000-2012 (Saunois et al., 2016), we analyse here the same dataset with a focus on quasi-decadal and inter-annual variability in CH4 emissions. The GCP dataset integrates results from top-down studies (exploiting atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up models (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry), inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven approaches. The annual global methane emissions from top-down studies, which by construction match the observed methane growth rate within their uncertainties, all show an increase in total methane emissions over the period 2000-2012, but this increase is not linear over the 13 years. Despite differences between individual studies, the mean emission anomaly of the top-down ensemble shows no significant trend in total methane emissions over the period 2000-2006, during the plateau of atmospheric methane mole fractions, and also over the period 2008-2012, during the renewed atmospheric methane increase. However, the top-down ensemble mean produces an emission shift between 2006 and 2008, leading to 22 [16-32] Tg CH4 yr(-1) higher methane emissions over the period 2008-2012 compared to 2002-2006. This emission increase mostly originated from the tropics, with a smaller contribution from mid-latitudes and no significant change from boreal regions. The regional contributions remain uncertain in top-down studies. Tropical South America and South and East Asia seem to contribute the most to the emission increase in the tropics. However, these two regions have only limited atmospheric measurements and remain therefore poorly constrained. The sectorial partitioning of this emission increase between the periods 2002-2006 and 2008-2012 differs from one atmospheric inversion study to another. However, all top-down studies suggest smaller changes in fossil fuel emissions (from oil, gas, and coal industries) compared to the mean of the bottom-up inventories included in this study. This difference is partly driven by a smaller emission change in China from the top-down studies compared to the estimate in the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGARv4.2) inventory, which should be revised to smaller values in a near future. We apply isotopic signatures to the emission changes estimated for individual studies based on five emission sectors and find that for six individual top-down studies (out of eight) the average isotopic signature of the emission changes is not consistent with the observed change in atmospheric (CH4)-C-13. However, the partitioning in emission change derived from the ensemble mean is consistent with this isotopic constraint. At the global scale, the top-down ensemble mean suggests that the dominant contribution to the resumed atmospheric CH4 growth after 2006 comes from microbial sources (more from agriculture and waste sectors than from natural wetlands), with an uncertain but smaller contribution from fossil CH4 emissions. In addition, a decrease in biomass burning emissions (in agreement with the biomass burning emission databases) makes the balance of sources consistent with atmospheric (CH4)-C-13 observations. In most of the top-down studies included here, OH concentrations are considered constant over the years (seasonal variations but without any inter-annual variability). As a result, the methane loss (in particular through OH oxidation) varies mainly through the change in methane concentrations and not its oxidants. For these reasons, changes in the methane loss could not be properly investigated in this study, although it may play a significant role in the recent atmospheric methane changes as briefly discussed at the end of the paper.

Saunois, M, Bousquet P, Poulter B, Peregon A, Ciais P, Canadell JG, Dlugokencky EJ, Etiope G, Bastviken D, Houweling S, Janssens-Maenhout G, Tubiello FN, Castaldi S, Jackson RB, Alexe M, Arora VK, Beerling DJ, Bergamaschi P, Blake DR, Brailsford G, Brovkin V, Bruhwiler L, Crevoisier C, Crill P, Covey K, Curry C, Frankenberg C, Gedney N, Hoglund-Isaksson L, Ishizawa M, Ito A, Joos F, Kim HS, Kleinen T, Krummel P, Lamarque JF, Langenfelds R, Locatelli R, Machida T, Maksyutov S, McDonald KC, Marshall J, Melton JR, Morino I, Naik V, O'Doherty S, Parmentier FJW, Patra PK, Peng CH, Peng SS, Peters GP, Pison I, Prigent C, Prinn R, Ramonet M, Riley WJ, Saito M, Santini M, Schroeder R, Simpson IJ, Spahni R, Steele P, Takizawa A, Thornton BF, Tian HQ, Tohjima Y, Viovy N, Voulgarakis A, van Weele M, van der Werf GR, Weiss R, Wiedinmyer C, Wilton DJ, Wiltshire A, Worthy D, Wunch D, Xu XY, Yoshida Y, Zhang B, Zhang Z, Zhu Q.  2016.  The global methane budget 2000-2012. Earth System Science Data. 8:697-751.   10.5194/essd-8-697-2016   AbstractWebsite

The global methane (CH4) budget is becoming an increasingly important component for managing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. This relevance, due to a shorter atmospheric lifetime and a stronger warming potential than carbon dioxide, is challenged by the still unexplained changes of atmospheric CH4 over the past decade. Emissions and concentrations of CH4 are continuing to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-induced greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide. Two major difficulties in reducing uncertainties come from the large variety of diffusive CH4 sources that overlap geographically, and from the destruction of CH4 by the very short-lived hydroxyl radical (OH). To address these difficulties, we have established a consortium of multi-disciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate research on the methane cycle, and producing regular (similar to biennial) updates of the global methane budget. This consortium includes atmospheric physicists and chemists, biogeochemists of surface and marine emissions, and socio-economists who study anthropogenic emissions. Following Kirschke et al. (2013), we propose here the first version of a living review paper that integrates results of top-down studies (exploiting atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up models, inventories and data-driven approaches (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, and inventories for anthropogenic emissions, data-driven extrapolations). For the 2003-2012 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by top-down inversions at 558 TgCH(4) yr(-1), range 540-568. About 60% of global emissions are anthropogenic (range 50-65 %). Since 2010, the bottom-up global emission inventories have been closer to methane emissions in the most carbon-intensive Representative Concentrations Pathway (RCP8.5) and higher than all other RCP scenarios. Bottom-up approaches suggest larger global emissions (736 TgCH(4) yr(-1), range 596-884) mostly because of larger natural emissions from individual sources such as inland waters, natural wetlands and geological sources. Considering the atmospheric constraints on the top-down budget, it is likely that some of the individual emissions reported by the bottom-up approaches are overestimated, leading to too large global emissions. Latitudinal data from top-down emissions indicate a predominance of tropical emissions (similar to 64% of the global budget, <30 degrees N) as compared to mid (similar to 32 %, 30-60 degrees N) and high northern latitudes (similar to 4 %, 60-90 degrees N). Top-down inversions consistently infer lower emissions in China (similar to 58 TgCH(4) yr(-1), range 51-72, -14 %) and higher emissions in Africa (86 TgCH(4) yr(-1), range 73-108, + 19 %) than bottom-up values used as prior estimates. Overall, uncertainties for anthropogenic emissions appear smaller than those from natural sources, and the uncertainties on source categories appear larger for top-down inversions than for bottom-up inventories and models. The most important source of uncertainty on the methane budget is attributable to emissions from wetland and other inland waters. We show that the wetland extent could contribute 30-40% on the estimated range for wetland emissions. Other priorities for improving the methane budget include the following: (i) the development of process-based models for inland-water emissions, (ii) the intensification of methane observations at local scale (flux measurements) to constrain bottom-up land surface models, and at regional scale (surface networks and satellites) to constrain top-down inversions, (iii) improvements in the estimation of atmospheric loss by OH, and (iv) improvements of the transport models integrated in top-down inversions. The data presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (http://doi.org/10.3334/CDIAC/GLOBAL_METHANE_BUDGET_2016_V1.1) and the Global Carbon Project.

Severinghaus, JP, Keeling RF, Miller BR, Weiss RF, Deck B, Broecker WS.  1997.  Feasibility of using sand dunes as archives of old air. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres. 102:16783-16792.   10.1029/97jd00525   AbstractWebsite

Large unaltered samples of the atmosphere covering the past century would complement the history of atmospheric gases obtained from bubbles in ice cores, enabling measurement of geochemically important species such as O-2, (CH4)-C-14, and (CO)-C-14. Sand dunes are a porous media with interstitial air in diffusive contact with the atmosphere, somewhat analogous to the unconsolidated layer of firn atop glaciers. Recent studies have demonstrated the value of firn as an archive of old air [Battle et al., 1996; Bender et al., 1994a]. Unlike firn, sand dunes are incompressible and so remain permeable to greater depths and may extend the firn record into the past century. To evaluate the feasibility of using sand dunes as archives of old air, we drilled 60 m deep test holes in the Algodones Dunes, Imperial Valley, California. The main objective was to see if the air in a sand dune is as old as predicted by a diffusion model, or if the dune is rapidly flushed by advective pumping during windstorms and barometric pressure changes. We dated the air with chlorofluorocarbons and krypton-85, anthropogenic tracers whose atmospheric concentrations are known and have been increasing rapidly in the past half century. These tracer data match the pure diffusion model well, showing that advection in this dune is negligible compared to diffusion as a transport mechanism and that the mean age of the air at 61 m depth is similar to 10 years. Dunes therefore do contain old air. However, dunes appear to suffer from two serious drawbacks as archives. Microbial metabolism is evident in elevated CO2 and N2O and depressed CH4 and O-2 concentrations in this dune, corrupting the signals of interest in this and probably most dunes. Second, isotopic analyses of N-2 and O-2 from the dune show that fractionation of the gases occurs due to diffusion of water vapor, complicating the interpretation of the O-2 signal beyond the point of viability for an air archive. Sand dunes may be useful for relatively inert gases with large atmospheric concentration changes such as chlorofluorocarbons.

Severinghaus, JP, Albert MR, Courville ZR, Fahnestock MA, Kawamura K, Montzka SA, Muhle J, Scambos TA, Shields E, Shuman CA, Suwa M, Tans P, Weiss RF.  2010.  Deep air convection in the firn at a zero-accumulation site, central Antarctica. Earth and Planetary Science Letters. 293:359-367.   10.1016/j.epsl.2010.03.003   AbstractWebsite

Ice cores provide unique archives of past atmospheres and climate, but interpretation of trapped-gas records and their climatic significance has been hampered by a poor knowledge of the prevalence of air convection in the firn layer on top of polar ice sheets. In particular, the phasing of greenhouse gases and climate from ice cores has been obscured by a discrepancy between empirical and model-based estimates of the age difference between trapped gases and enclosing ice, which may be due to air convection. Here we show that deep air convection (>23 m) occurs at a windy, near-zero-accumulation rate site in central Antarctica known informally as the Megadunes site (80.77914 degrees S, 124.48796 degrees E). Deep convection is evident in depth profiles of air withdrawn from the firn layer, in the observed pattern of the nitrogen isotope ratio (15)N/(14)N, the argon isotope ratio (40)Ar/(36)Ar, and in the mixing ratios of the anthropogenic halocarbons methyl chloroform (CH(3)CCl(3)) and HFC-134a (CH(2)FCF(3)). Transport parameters (diffusivities) were inferred and air was dated using measured carbon dioxide (CO(2)) and methane (CH(4)) mixing ratios, by comparing with the Law Dome atmospheric record, which shows that these are the oldest firn air samples ever recovered (CO(2) mean age = 1863 AD). The low accumulation rate and the consequent intense metamorphism of the firn (due to prolonged exposure to seasonal temperature cycling) likely contribute to deep air convection via large grain size and vertical cracks that act as conduits for vigorous air motion. The Megadunes site provides a possible modern analog for the glacial conditions in the Vostok, Dome Fuji, and Dome C ice core records and a possible explanation for lower-than-expected (15)N/(14)N ratios in trapped air bubbles at these times. A general conclusion is that very low accumulation rate causes deep air convection via its effect on firn structural characteristics. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Simmonds, PG, Manning AJ, Cunnold DM, McCulloch A, O'Doherty S, Derwent RG, Krummel PB, Fraser PJ, Dunse B, Porter LW, Wang RHJ, Greally BR, Miller BR, Salameh P, Weiss RF, Prinn RG.  2006.  Global trends, seasonal cycles, and European emissions of dichloromethane, trichloroethene, and tetrachloroethene from the AGAGE observations at Mace Head, Ireland, and Cape Grim, Tasmania. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres. 111   10.1029/2006jd007082   AbstractWebsite

[1] In situ observations ( every 4 hours) of dichloromethane (CH(2)Cl(2)) from April 1995 to December 2004 and trichloroethene (C(2)HCl(3)) and tetrachloroethene (C(2)Cl(4)) from September 2000 to December 2004 are reported for the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) station at Mace Head, Ireland. At a second AGAGE station at Cape Grim, Tasmania, CH(2)Cl(2) and C(2)Cl(4) data collection commenced in 1998 and 2000, respectively. C(2)HCl(3) is below the limit of detection at Cape Grim except during pollution episodes. At Mace Head CH(2)Cl(2) shows a downward trend from 1995 to 2004 of 0.7 +/- 0.2 ppt yr(-1) ( ppt: expressed as dry mole fractions in 10(12)), although from 1998 to 2004 the decrease has been only 0.3 +/- 0.1ppt yr(-1). Conversely, there has been a small but significant growth of 0.05 +/- 0.01 ppt yr(-1) in CH(2)Cl(2) at Cape Grim. The time series for C(2)HCl(3) and C(2)Cl(4) are relatively short for accurate trend analyses; however, we observe a small but significant decline in C(2)Cl(4) (0.18 +/- 0.05 ppt yr(-1)) at Mace Head. European emissions inferred from AGAGE measurements are compared to recent estimates from industry data and show general agreement for C(2)HCl(3). Emissions estimated from observations are lower than industry emission estimates for C(2)Cl(4) and much lower in the case of CH(2)Cl(2). A study of wildfires in Tasmania, uncontaminated by urban emissions, suggests that the biomass burning source of CH(2)Cl(2) may have been previously overestimated. All three solvents have distinct annual cycles, with the phases and amplitudes reflecting their different chemical reactivity with OH as the primary sink.

Simmonds, PG, Rigby M, Manning AJ, Lunt MF, O'Doherty S, McCulloch A, Fraser PJ, Henne S, Vollmer MK, Muhle J, Weiss RF, Salameh PK, Young D, Reimann S, Wenger A, Arnold T, Harth CM, Krummel PB, Steele LP, Dunse BL, Miller BR, Lunder CR, Hermansen O, Schmidbauer N, Saito T, Yokouchi Y, Park S, Li S, Yao B, Zhou LX, Arduini J, Maione M, Wang RHJ, Ivy D, Prinn RG.  2016.  Global and regional emissions estimates of 1,1-difluoroethane (HFC-152a, CH3CHF2) from in situ and air archive observations. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. 16:365-382.   10.5194/acp-16-365-2016   AbstractWebsite

High frequency, in situ observations from 11 globally distributed sites for the period 1994-2014 and archived air measurements dating from 1978 onward have been used to determine the global growth rate of 1,1-difluoroethane (HFC-152a, CH3CHF2). These observations have been combined with a range of atmospheric transport models to derive global emission estimates in a top-down approach. HFC-152a is a greenhouse gas with a short atmospheric lifetime of about 1.5 years. Since it does not contain chlorine or bromine, HFC-152a makes no direct contribution to the destruction of stratospheric ozone and is therefore used as a substitute for the ozone de- pleting chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs). The concentration of HFC-152a has grown substantially since the first direct measurements in 1994, reaching a maximum annual global growth rate of 0.84 +/- 0.05 ppt yr(-1) in 2006, implying a substantial increase in emissions up to 2006. However, since 2007, the annual rate of growth has slowed to 0.38 +/- 0.04 ppt yr(-1) in 2010 with a further decline to an annual average rate of growth in 2013-2014 of -0.06 +/- 0.05 ppt yr(-1). The annual average Northern Hemisphere (NH) mole fraction in 1994 was 1.2 ppt rising to an annual average mole fraction of 10.1 ppt in 2014. Average annual mole fractions in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) in 1998 and 2014 were 0.84 and 4.5 ppt, respectively. We estimate global emissions of HFC-152a have risen from 7.3 +/- 5.6 Gg yr(-1) in 1994 to a maximum of 54.4 +/- 17.1 Gg yr(-1) in 2011, declining to 52.5 +/- 20.1 Gg yr(-1) in 2014 or 7.2 +/- 2.8 Tg-CO2 eq yr(-1). Analysis of mole fraction enhancements above regional background atmospheric levels suggests substantial emissions from North America, Asia, and Europe. Global HFC emissions (so called "bottom up" emissions) reported by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are based on cumulative national emission data reported to the UNFCCC, which in turn are based on national consumption data. There appears to be a significant underestimate (> 20 Gg) of "bottom-up" reported emissions of HFC-152a, possibly arising from largely underestimated USA emissions and undeclared Asian emissions.

Simmonds, PG, Rigby M, McCulloch A, Vollmer MK, Henne S, Muhle J, O'Doherty S, Manning AJ, Krummel PB, Fraser PJ, Young D, Weiss RF, Salameh PK, Harth CM, Reimann S, Trudinger CM, Steele LP, Wang RHJ, Ivy DJ, Prinn RG, Mitrevski B, Etheridge DM.  2018.  Recent increases in the atmospheric growth rate and emissions of HFC-23 (CHF3) and the link to HCFC-22 (CHClF2) production. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. 18:4153-4169.   10.5194/acp-18-4153-2018   AbstractWebsite

High frequency measurements of trifluoromethane (HFC-23, CHF3), a potent hydrofluorocarbon greenhouse gas, largely emitted to the atmosphere as a by-product of the production of the hydrochlorofluorocarbon HCFC-22 (CHClF2), at five core stations of the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) network, combined with measurements on firn air, old Northern Hemisphere air samples and Cape Grim Air Archive (CGAA) air samples, are used to explore the current and historic changes in the atmospheric abundance of HFC-23. These measurements are used in combination with the AGAGE 2-D atmospheric 12-box model and a Bayesian inversion methodology to determine model atmospheric mole fractions and the history of global HFC-23 emissions. The global modelled annual mole fraction of HFC-23 in the background atmosphere was 28.9 +/- 0.6 pmol mol(-1) at the end of 2016, representing a 28% increase from 22.6 +/- 0.4 pmol mol(-1) in 2009. Over the same time frame, the modelled mole fraction of HCFC-22 increased by 19% from 199 +/- 2 to 237 +/- 2 pmol mol(-1). However, unlike HFC-23, the annual average HCFC-22 growth rate slowed from 2009 to 2016 at an annual average rate of -0.5 pmol mol(-1) yr(-2). This slowing atmospheric growth is consistent with HCFC-22 moving from dispersive (high fractional emissions) to feedstock (low fractional emissions) uses, with HFC-23 emissions remaining as a consequence of incomplete mitigation from all HCFC-22 production. Our results demonstrate that, following a minimum in HFC-23 global emissions in 2009 of 9.6 +/- 0.6, emissions increased to a maximum in 2014 of 14.5 +/- 0.6 Gg yr(-1) and then declined to 12.7 +/- 0.6 Gg yr(-1) (157 MtCO(2) eq.yr(-1)) in 2016. The 2009 emissions minimum is consistent with estimates based on national reports and is likely a response to the implementation of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) to mitigate HFC-23 emissions by incineration in developing (non-Annex 1) countries under the Kyoto Protocol. Our derived cumulative emissions of HFC-23 during 20102016 were 89 +/- 2 Gg (1.1 +/- 0.2 GtCO(2) eq.), which led to an increase in radiative forcing of 1.0 +/- 0.1mWm(-2) over the same period. Although the CDM had reduced global HFC-23 emissions, it cannot now offset the higher emissions from increasing HCFC-22 production in non-Annex 1 countries, as the CDM was closed to new entrants in 2009. We also find that the cumulative European HFC-23 emissions from 2010 to 2016 were similar to 1.3 Gg, corresponding to just 1.5% of cumulative global HFC-23 emissions over this same period. The majority of the increase in global HFC-23 emissions since 2010 is attributed to a delay in the adoption of mitigation technologies, predominantly in China and East Asia. However, a reduction in emissions is anticipated, when the Kigali 2016 amendment to the Montreal Protocol, requiring HCFC and HFC production facilities to introduce destruction of HFC-23, is fully implemented.

Simmonds, PG, Cunnold DM, Weiss RF, Prinn RG, Fraser PJ, McCulloch A, Alyea FN, O'Doherty S.  1998.  Global trends and emission estimates of CCl4 from in situ background observations from July 1978 to June 1996. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres. 103:16017-16027.   10.1029/98jd01022   AbstractWebsite

Atmospheric Lifetime Experiment/Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment/Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (ALE/GAGE/AGAGE) measurements of CCl4 at five remote surface locations from 1978 to 1996 are reported. The Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO) 1993 absolute calibration scale is used, reducing the concentrations by a factor of 0.77 compared to previous ALE/GAGE reports. Atmospheric concentrations of CCl4 reached a peak in 1989-1990 of 104.4 +/-. 3.1 parts per trillion (ppt) and have since been decreasing 0.7 +/-. 0.1 ppt yr(-1). Assuming an atmospheric lifetime of 42 +/- 12 years, the emissions averaged 94(+22)(-11) x 10(6) kg from 1979 to 1988 and 49(+26)(-13) x 10(6) kg from 1991 to 1995. The reduction in the emissions in 1989-1990 coincided with a substantial decrease in the global production of the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). The total emission of CCl4 from countries that report annual production is estimated to have declined from 11% in 1972 to 4% in 1995 of the CCl4 needed to produce the CFC amounts reported. This implies that nonreporting countries released substantial amounts of CCl4 into the atmosphere in the 1980s and that their releases have exceeded those from the reporting countries since 1991.

Simmonds, PG, Manning AJ, Athanassiadou M, Scaife AA, Derwent RG, O'Doherty S, Harth CM, Weiss RF, Dutton GS, Hall BD, Sweeney C, Elkins JW.  2013.  Interannual fluctuations in the seasonal cycle of nitrous oxide and chlorofluorocarbons due to the Brewer-Dobson circulation. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres. 118:10694-10706.   10.1002/jgrd.50832   AbstractWebsite

The tropospheric seasonal cycles of N2O, CFC-11 (CCl3F), and CFC-12 (CCl2F2) are influenced by atmospheric dynamics. The interannually varying summertime minima in mole fractions of these trace gases have been attributed to interannual variations in mixing of stratospheric air (depleted in CFCs and N2O) with tropospheric air with a few months lag. The amount of wave activity that drives the stratospheric circulation and influences the winter stratospheric jet and subsequent mass transport across the tropopause appears to be the primary cause of this interannual variability. We relate the observed seasonal minima of species at three Northern Hemisphere sites (Mace Head, Ireland; Trinidad Head, U.S.; and Barrow, Alaska) with the behavior of the winter stratospheric jet. As a result, a good correlation is obtained between zonal winds in winter at 10 hPa, 58°N–68°N, and the detrended seasonal minima in the stratosphere-influenced tracers. For these three tracers, individual Pearson correlation coefficients (r) between 0.51 and 0.71 were found, with overall correlations of between 0.67 and 0.77 when “composite species” were considered. Finally, we note that the long-term observations of CFCs and N2O in the troposphere provide an independent monitoring method complementary to satellite data. Furthermore, they could provide a useful observational measure of the strength of stratosphere-troposphere exchange and, thus, could be used to monitor any long-term trend in the Brewer-Dobson circulation which is predicted by climate models to increase over the coming decades.

Simmonds, PG, Rigby M, McCulloch A, O'Doherty S, Young D, Mühle J, Krummel PB, Steele P, Fraser PJ, Manning AJ, Weiss RF, Salameh PK, Harth CM, Wang RHJ, Prinn RG.  2017.  Changing trends and emissions of hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) and their hydrofluorocarbon (HFCs) replacements. Atmos. Chem. Phys.. 17:4641-4655.: Copernicus Publications   10.5194/acp-17-4641-2017   Abstract

High-frequency, in situ global observations of HCFC-22 (CHClF2), HCFC-141b (CH3CCl2F), HCFC-142b (CH3CClF2) and HCFC-124 (CHClFCF3) and their main HFC replacements, HFC-134a (CH2FCF3), HFC-125 (CHF2CF3), HFC-143a (CH3CF3) and HFC-32 (CH2F2), have been used to determine their changing global growth rates and emissions in response to the Montreal Protocol and its recent amendments. Global mean mole fractions of HCFC-22, -141b, and -142b have increased throughout the observation period, reaching 234, 24.3 and 22.4 pmol mol−1, respectively, in 2015. HCFC-124 reached a maximum global mean mole fraction of 1.48 pmol mol−1 in 2007 and has since declined by 23 % to 1.14 pmol mol−1 in 2015. The HFCs all show increasing global mean mole fractions. In 2015 the global mean mole fractions (pmol mol−1) were 83.3 (HFC-134a), 18.4 (HFC-125), 17.7 (HFC-143a) and 10.5 (HFC-32).The 2007 adjustment to the Montreal Protocol required the accelerated phase-out of emissive uses of HCFCs with global production and consumption capped in 2013 to mitigate their environmental impact as both ozone-depleting substances and important greenhouse gases. We find that this change has coincided with a stabilisation, or moderate reduction, in global emissions of the four HCFCs with aggregated global emissions in 2015 of 449 ± 75 Gg yr−1, in CO2 equivalent units (CO2 eq.) 0.76 ± 0.1 Gt yr−1, compared with 483 ± 70 Gg yr−1 (0.82 ± 0.1 Gt yr−1 CO2 eq.) in 2010 (uncertainties are 1σ throughout this paper). About 79 % of the total HCFC atmospheric burden in 2015 is HCFC-22, where global emissions appear to have been relatively similar since 2011, in spite of the 2013 cap on emissive uses. We attribute this to a probable increase in production and consumption of HCFC-22 in Montreal Protocol Article 5 (developing) countries and the continuing release of HCFC-22 from the large banks which dominate HCFC global emissions. Conversely, the four HFCs all show increasing mole fraction growth rates with aggregated global HFC emissions of 327 ± 70 Gg yr−1 (0.65 ± 0.12 Gt yr−1 CO2 eq.) in 2015 compared to 240 ± 50 Gg yr−1 (0.47 ± 0.08 Gt yr−1 CO2 eq.) in 2010. We also note that emissions of HFC-125 and HFC-32 appear to have increased more rapidly averaged over the 5-year period 2011–2015, compared to 2006–2010. As noted by Lunt et al. (2015) this may reflect a change to refrigerant blends, such as R-410A, which contain HFC-32 and -125 as a 50 : 50 blend.

Simmonds, PG, Derwent RG, Manning AJ, Fraser PJ, Krummel PB, O'Doherty S, Prinn RG, Cunnold DM, Miller BR, Wang HJ, Ryall DB, Porter LW, Weiss RF, Salameh PK.  2004.  AGAGE observations of methyl bromide and methyl chloride at Mace Head, Ireland, and Cape Grim, Tasmania, 1998-2001. Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry. 47:243-269.   10.1023/B:JOCH.0000021136.52340.9c   AbstractWebsite

In situ AGAGE GC-MS measurements of methyl bromide (CH3Br) and methyl chloride (CH3Cl) at Mace Head, Ireland and Cape Grim, Tasmania (1998-2001) reveal a complex pattern of sources. At Mace Head both gases have well-defined seasonal cycles with similar average annual decreases of 3.0% yr(-1) (CH3Br) and 2.6% yr(-1) (CH3Cl), and mean northern hemisphere baseline mole fractions of 10.37 +/- 0.05 ppt and 535.7 +/- 2.2 ppt, respectively. We have used a Lagrangian dispersion model and local meteorological data to segregate the Mace Head observations into different source regions, and interpret the results in terms of the known sources and sinks of these two key halocarbons. At Cape Grim CH3Br and CH3Cl also show annual decreases in their baseline mixing ratios of 2.5% yr(-1) and 1.5% yr(-1), respectively. Mean baseline mole fractions were 7.94 +/- 0.03 ppt (CH3Br) and 541.3 +/- 1.1 ppt (CH3Cl). Although CH3Cl has a strong seasonal cycle there is no well-defined seasonal cycle in the Cape Grim CH3Br record. The fact that both gases are steadily decreasing in the atmosphere at both locations implies that a change has occurred which is affecting a common, major source of both gases (possibly biomass burning) and/or their major sink process (destruction by hydroxyl radical).

Somayajulu, BLK, Rengarajan R, Lal D, Weiss RF, Craig H.  1987.  GEOSECS Atlantic 32Si profiles. Earth and Planetary Science Letters. 85:329-342.   10.1016/0012-821x(87)90131-2   AbstractWebsite

Measurements of five cosmogenic32Si vertical profiles in Atlantic waters (27°N to 60°S) are presented. The amounts of dissolved SiO2 extracted range from 2 to 54 g; the amounts of water from which SiO2 was extracted range between 540 kg and 270, 000 kg. In additon, SiO2 recovered from four surface particulate composites (64°N to 61°S) were also analyzed for32Si.32Si measurements were made by milking and counting the daughter activity, 32P. The net32P activities range from 0.7 to 6.8 cph; typical errors in measurements of the32P activities are 20–30%.The32Si concentrations vary from 0.6 dpm/106 kg of water in the North Atlantic surface waters to 235 dpm/106 kg at 400 m depth in the circumpolar waters. The vertical profiles of32Si at the five Atlantic stations approximately follow the Si profiles but the depth gradients are different. This would be expected also considering the in-situ release mechanisms due to dissolution and advection/diffusion from the bottom waters. Except for the circumpolar station 89, where the Si and32Si profiles show the effect of marked vertical mixing (nearly depth independent profiles), the profiles show the following features: (1) specific activities of32Si (32Si/SiO2 ratios) are lowest at intermediate depths, and (2) on an average the surface specific activities are higher, by 2–4 times, than the bottom water values. These data are consistent with generation of the highest specific activity32Si waters at the surface, where Si concentrations are lowest and precipitation adds cosmogenic32Si scavenged from the troposphere. Rapid removal of biogenic silica to the water-sediment interface, without much dissolution during transit, leads to the second regime of high32Si specific activities.The32Si inventories in the water column in the latitude belt 27°N-27°S are in the range (1–1.4) × 10−2 dpm32Si/cm2, which is consistent with the expected fallout of cosmogenic32Si. However, the32Si column inventories south of 40°S are higher by a factor of ∼ 5–7, whereas the corresponding Si inventories increase by only a factor of 3. This excess32Si in the Southern Ocean cannot be explained by direct fallout from the stratosphere or by melting of Antarctic snow and ice. Instead, this excess is maintained primarily by the southward deep-water transport of32Si dissolved from sinking particulates.

Spencer, D, Broecker WS, Craig H, Weiss RF.  1982.  GEOSECS Indian Ocean expedition. Volume 6, Sections and profiles. , Washington (D.C.): National Science Foundation Abstract
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Stohl, A, Kim J, Li S, O'Doherty S, Muhle J, Salameh PK, Saito T, Vollmer MK, Wan D, Weiss RF, Yao B, Yokouchi Y, Zhou LX.  2010.  Hydrochlorofluorocarbon and hydrofluorocarbon emissions in East Asia determined by inverse modeling. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. 10:3545-3560.   10.5194/acp-10-3545-2010   AbstractWebsite

The emissions of three hydrochlorofluorocarbons, HCFC-22 (CHClF(2)), HCFC-141b (CH(3)CCl(2)F) and HCFC-142b (CH(3)CClF(2)) and three hydrofluorocarbons, HFC-23 (CHF(3)), HFC-134a (CH(2)FCF(3)) and HFC-152a (CH(3)CHF(2)) from four East Asian countries and the Taiwan region for the year 2008 are determined by inverse modeling. The inverse modeling is based on in-situ measurements of these halocarbons at the Japanese stations Cape Ochi-ishi and Hateruma, the Chinese station Shangdianzi and the South Korean station Gosan. For every station and every 3 h, 20-day backward calculations were made with the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART. The model output, the measurement data, bottom-up emission information and corresponding uncertainties were fed into an inversion algorithm to determine the regional emission fluxes. The model captures the observed variation of halocarbon mixing ratios very well for the two Japanese stations but has difficulties explaining the large observed variability at Shangdianzi, which is partly caused by small-scale transport from Beijing that is not adequately captured by the model. Based on HFC-23 measurements, the inversion algorithm could successfully identify the locations of factories known to produce HCFC-22 and emit HFC-23 as an unintentional byproduct. This lends substantial credibility to the inversion method. We report national emissions for China, North Korea, South Korea and Japan, as well as emissions for the Taiwan region. Halocarbon emissions in China are much larger than the emissions in the other countries together and contribute a substantial fraction to the global emissions. Our estimates of Chinese emissions for the year 2008 are 65.3 +/- 6.6 kt/yr for HCFC-22 (17% of global emissions extrapolated from Montzka et al., 2009), 12.1 +/- 1.6 kt/yr for HCFC-141b (22%), 7.3 +/- 0.7 kt/yr for HCFC-142b (17%), 6.2 +/- 0.7 kt/yr for HFC-23 (> 50%), 12.9 +/- 1.7 kt/yr for HFC-134a (9% of global emissions estimated from Velders et al., 2009) and 3.4 +/- 0.5 kt/yr for HFC-152a (7%).

Stohl, A, Seibert P, Arduini J, Eckhardt S, Fraser P, Greally BR, Lunder C, Maione M, Muhle J, O'Doherty S, Prinn RG, Reimann S, Saito T, Schmidbauer N, Simmonds PG, Vollmer MK, Weiss RF, Yokouchi Y.  2009.  An analytical inversion method for determining regional and global emissions of greenhouse gases: Sensitivity studies and application to halocarbons. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. 9:1597-1620.   10.5194/acp-9-1597-2009   AbstractWebsite

A new analytical inversion method has been developed to determine the regional and global emissions of long-lived atmospheric trace gases. It exploits in situ measurement data from three global networks and builds on backward simulations with a Lagrangian particle dispersion model. The emission information is extracted from the observed concentration increases over a baseline that is itself objectively determined by the inversion algorithm. The method was applied to two hydrofluorocarbons (HFC-134a, HFC-152a) and a hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC-22) for the period January 2005 until March 2007. Detailed sensitivity studies with synthetic as well as with real measurement data were done to quantify the influence on the results of the a priori emissions and their uncertainties as well as of the observation and model errors. It was found that the global a posteriori emissions of HFC-134a, HFC-152a and HCFC-22 all increased from 2005 to 2006. Large increases (21%, 16%, 18%, respectively) from 2005 to 2006 were found for China, whereas the emission changes in North America (-9%, 23%, 17%, respectively) and Europe (11%, 11%,-4%, respectively) were mostly smaller and less systematic. For Europe, the a posteriori emissions of HFC-134a and HFC-152a were slightly higher than the a priori emissions reported to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). For HCFC-22, the a posteriori emissions for Europe were substantially (by almost a factor 2) higher than the a priori emissions used, which were based on HCFC consumption data reported to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). Combined with the reported strongly decreasing HCFC consumption in Europe, this suggests a substantial time lag between the reported time of the HCFC-22 consumption and the actual time of the HCFC-22 emission. Conversely, in China where HCFC consumption is increasing rapidly according to the UNEP data, the a posteriori emissions are only about 40% of the a priori emissions. This reveals a substantial storage of HCFC-22 and potential for future emissions in China. Deficiencies in the geographical distribution of stations measuring halocarbons in relation to estimating regional emissions are also discussed in the paper. Applications of the inversion algorithm to other greenhouse gases such as methane, nitrous oxide or carbon dioxide are foreseen for the future.