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2010
Kim, J, Li S, Kim KR, Stohl A, Muhle J, Kim SK, Park MK, Kang DJ, Lee G, Harth CM, Salameh PK, Weiss RF.  2010.  Regional atmospheric emissions determined from measurements at Jeju Island, Korea: Halogenated compounds from China. Geophysical Research Letters. 37   10.1029/2010gl043263   AbstractWebsite

High-frequency in-situ measurements of a wide range of halogenated compounds including chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), halons, hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorinated compounds (PFCs), sulfur hexafluoride (SF(6)), and other chlorinated and brominated compounds have been made at Gosan (Jeju Island, Korea). Regional emissions of HCFC-22 (CHClF(2)) calculated from inverse modeling were combined with interspecies correlation methods to estimate national emissions for China, a major emitter of industrial halogenated gases. Our results confirm the signs of successful phase-out of primary ozone-depleting species such as CFCs, halons and many chlorinated or brominated compounds, along with substantial emissions of replacement HCFCs. Emissions derived for HFCs, PFCs, and SF6 were compared to published estimates and found to be a significant fraction of global totals. Overall, Chinese emissions of the halogenated compounds discussed here represent 19(14-17)% and 20(15-26)% of global emissions when evaluated in terms of their Ozone Depletion Potentials and 100-year Global Warming Potentials, respectively. Citation: Kim, J., et al. (2010), Regional atmospheric emissions determined from measurements at Jeju Island, Korea: Halogenated compounds from China, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L12801, doi: 10.1029/2010GL043263.

Xiao, X, Prinn RG, Fraser PJ, Weiss RF, Simmonds PG, O'Doherty S, Miller BR, Salameh PK, Harth CM, Krummel PB, Golombek A, Porter LW, Butler JH, Elkins JW, Dutton GS, Hall BD, Steele LP, Wang RHJ, Cunnold DM.  2010.  Atmospheric three-dimensional inverse modeling of regional industrial emissions and global oceanic uptake of carbon tetrachloride. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. 10:10421-10434.   10.5194/acp-10-10421-2010   AbstractWebsite

Carbon tetrachloride (CCl(4)) has substantial stratospheric ozone depletion potential and its consumption is controlled under the Montreal Protocol and its amendments. We implement a Kalman filter using atmospheric CCl(4) measurements and a 3-dimensional chemical transport model to estimate the interannual regional industrial emissions and seasonal global oceanic uptake of CCl(4) for the period of 1996-2004. The Model of Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry (MATCH), driven by offline National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis meteorological fields, is used to simulate CCl(4) mole fractions and calculate their sensitivities to regional sources and sinks using a finite difference approach. High frequency observations from the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) and the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and low frequency flask observations are together used to constrain the source and sink magnitudes, estimated as factors that multiply the a priori fluxes. Although industry data imply that the global industrial emissions were substantially declining with large interannual variations, the optimized results show only small interannual variations and a small decreasing trend. The global surface CCl(4) mole fractions were declining in this period because the CCl(4) oceanic and stratospheric sinks exceeded the industrial emissions. Compared to the a priori values, the inversion results indicate substantial increases in industrial emissions originating from the South Asian/Indian and Southeast Asian regions, and significant decreases in emissions from the European and North American regions.

Miller, BR, Rigby M, Kuijpers LJM, Krummel PB, Steele LP, Leist M, Fraser PJ, McCulloch A, Harth C, Salameh P, Muhle J, Weiss RF, Prinn RG, Wang RHJ, O'Doherty S, Greally BR, Simmonds PG.  2010.  HFC-23 (CHF3) emission trend response to HCFC-22 (CHClF2) production and recent HFC-23 emission abatement measures. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. 10:7875-7890.   10.5194/acp-10-7875-2010   AbstractWebsite

HFC-23 (also known as CHF(3), fluoroform or trifluoromethane) is a potent greenhouse gas (GHG), with a global warming potential (GWP) of 14 800 for a 100-year time horizon. It is an unavoidable by-product of HCFC-22 (CHClF(2), chlorodifluoromethane) production. HCFC-22, an ozone depleting substance (ODS), is used extensively in commercial refrigeration and air conditioning, in the extruded polystyrene (XPS) foam industries (dispersive applications) and also as a feedstock in fluoropolymer manufacture (a non-dispersive use). Aside from small markets in specialty uses, HFC-23 has historically been considered a waste gas that was, and often still is, simply vented to the atmosphere. Efforts have been made in the past two decades to reduce HFC-23 emissions, including destruction (incineration) in facilities in developing countries under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change's (UNFCCC) Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), and by process optimization and/or voluntary incineration by most producers in developed countries. We present observations of lower-tropospheric mole fractions of HFC-23 measured by 'Medusa' GC/MSD instruments from ambient air sampled in situ at the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) network of five remote sites (2007-2009) and in Cape Grim air archive (CGAA) samples (1978-2009) from Tasmania, Australia. These observations are used with the AGAGE 2-D atmospheric 12-box model and an inverse method to produce model mole fractions and a 'top-down' HFC-23 emission history. The model 2009 annual mean global lower-tropospheric background abundance is 22.6 (+/- 0.2) pmol mol(-1). The derived HFC-23 emissions show a 'plateau' during 1997-2003, followed by a rapid similar to 50% increase to a peak of 15.0 (+1.3/-1.2) Gg/yr in 2006. Following this peak, emissions of HFC-23 declined rapidly to 8.6 (+0.9/-1.0) Gg/yr in 2009, the lowest annual emission of the past 15 years. We derive a 1990-2008 'bottom-up' HFC-23 emission history using data from the United Nations Environment Programme and the UNFCCC. Comparison with the top-down HFC-23 emission history shows agreement within the stated uncertainties. In the 1990s, HFC-23 emissions from developed countries dominated all other sources, then began to decline and eventually became fairly constant during 2003-2008. By this point, with developed countries' emissions essentially at a plateau, the major factor controlling the annual dynamics of global HFC-23 emissions became the historical rise of developing countries' HCFC-22 dispersive use production, which peaked in 2007. Thereafter in 2007-2009, incineration through CDM projects became a larger factor, reducing global HFC-23 emissions despite rapidly rising HCFC-22 feedstock production in developing countries.

Rigby, M, Muhle J, Miller BR, Prinn RG, Krummel PB, Steele LP, Fraser PJ, Salameh PK, Harth CM, Weiss RF, Greally BR, O'Doherty S, Simmonds PG, Vollmer MK, Reimann S, Kim J, Kim KR, Wang HJ, Olivier JGJ, Dlugokencky EJ, Dutton GS, Hall BD, Elkins JW.  2010.  History of atmospheric SF6 from 1973 to 2008. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. 10:10305-10320.   10.5194/acp-10-10305-2010   AbstractWebsite

We present atmospheric sulfur hexafluoride (SF(6)) mole fractions and emissions estimates from the 1970s to 2008. Measurements were made of archived air samples starting from 1973 in the Northern Hemisphere and from 1978 in the Southern Hemisphere, using the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) gas chromatographic-mass spectrometric (GC-MS) systems. These measurements were combined with modern high-frequency GC-MS and GC-electron capture detection (ECD) data from AGAGE monitoring sites, to produce a unique 35-year atmospheric record of this potent greenhouse gas. Atmospheric mole fractions were found to have increased by more than an order of magnitude between 1973 and 2008. The 2008 growth rate was the highest recorded, at 0.29 +/- 0.02 pmol mol(-1) yr(-1). A three-dimensional chemical transport model and a minimum variance Bayesian inverse method was used to estimate annual emission rates using the measurements, with a priori estimates from the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR, version 4). Consistent with the mole fraction growth rate maximum, global emissions during 2008 were also the highest in the 1973-2008 period, reaching 7.4 +/- 0.6 Gg yr(-1) (1-sigma uncertainties) and surpassing the previous maximum in 1995. The 2008 values follow an increase in emissions of 48 +/- 20% since 2001. A second global inversion which also incorporated National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) flask measurements and in situ monitoring site data agreed well with the emissions derived using AGAGE measurements alone. By estimating continent-scale emissions using all available AGAGE and NOAA surface measurements covering the period 2004-2008, with no pollution filtering, we find that it is likely that much of the global emissions rise during this five-year period originated primarily from Asian developing countries that do not report detailed, annual emissions to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). We also find it likely that SF(6) emissions reported to the UNFCCC were underestimated between at least 2004 and 2005.

Xiao, X, Prinn RG, Fraser PJ, Simmonds PG, Weiss RF, O'Doherty S, Miller BR, Salameh PK, Harth CM, Krummel PB, Porter LW, Muhle J, Greally BR, Cunnold D, Wang R, Montzka SA, Elkins JW, Dutton GS, Thompson TM, Butler JH, Hall BD, Reimann S, Vollmer MK, Stordal F, Lunder C, Maione M, Arduini J, Yokouchi Y.  2010.  Optimal estimation of the surface fluxes of methyl chloride using a 3-D global chemical transport model. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. 10:5515-5533.   10.5194/acp-10-5515-2010   AbstractWebsite

Methyl chloride (CH(3)Cl) is a chlorine-containing trace gas in the atmosphere contributing significantly to stratospheric ozone depletion. Large uncertainties in estimates of its source and sink magnitudes and temporal and spatial variations currently exist. GEIA inventories and other bottom-up emission estimates are used to construct a priori maps of the surface fluxes of CH(3)Cl. The Model of Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry (MATCH), driven by NCEP interannually varying meteorological data, is then used to simulate CH(3)Cl mole fractions and quantify the time series of sensitivities of the mole fractions at each measurement site to the surface fluxes of various regional and global sources and sinks. We then implement the Kalman filter (with the unit pulse response method) to estimate the surface fluxes on regional/global scales with monthly resolution from January 2000 to December 2004. High frequency observations from the AGAGE, SOGE, NIES, and NOAA/ESRL HATS in situ networks and low frequency observations from the NOAA/ESRL HATS flask network are used to constrain the source and sink magnitudes. The inversion results indicate global total emissions around 4100 +/- 470 Ggyr(-1) with very large emissions of 2200 +/- 390 Gg yr(-1) from tropical plants, which turn out to be the largest single source in the CH(3)Cl budget. Relative to their a priori annual estimates, the inversion increases global annual fungal and tropical emissions, and reduces the global oceanic source. The inversion implies greater seasonal and interannual oscillations of the natural sources and sink of CH(3)Cl compared to the a priori. The inversion also reflects the strong effects of the 2002/2003 globally widespread heat waves and droughts on global emissions from tropical plants, biomass burning and salt marshes, and on the soil sink.

Muhle, J, Ganesan AL, Miller BR, Salameh PK, Harth CM, Greally BR, Rigby M, Porter LW, Steele LP, Trudinger CM, Krummel PB, O'Doherty S, Fraser PJ, Simmonds PG, Prinn RG, Weiss RF.  2010.  Perfluorocarbons in the global atmosphere: tetrafluoromethane, hexafluoroethane, and octafluoropropane. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. 10:5145-5164.   10.5194/acp-10-5145-2010   AbstractWebsite

We present atmospheric baseline growth rates from the 1970s to the present for the long-lived, strongly infrared-absorbing perfluorocarbons (PFCs) tetrafluoromethane (CF(4)), hexafluoroethane (C(2)F(6)), and octafluoropropane (C(3)F(8)) in both hemispheres, measured with improved accuracies (similar to 1-2%) and precisions (<0.3%, or <0.2 ppt (parts per trillion dry air mole fraction), for CF(4); <1.5%, or <0.06 ppt, for C(2)F(6); <4.5%, or <0.02 ppt, for C3F8) within the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE). Pre-industrial background values of 34.7 +/- 0.2 ppt CF(4) and 0.1 +/- 0.02 ppt C(2)F(6) were measured in air extracted from Greenland ice and Antarctic firn. Anthropogenic sources are thought to be primary aluminum production (CF(4), C(2)F(6), C(3)F(8)), semiconductor production (C(2)F(6), CF(4), C(3)F(8)) and refrigeration use (C(3)F(8)). Global emissions calculated with the AGAGE 2-D 12-box model are significantly higher than most previous emission estimates. The sum of CF(4) and C(2)F(6) emissions estimated from aluminum production and non-metal production are lower than observed global top-down emissions, with gaps of similar to 6 Gg/yr CF(4) in recent years. The significant discrepancies between previous CF(4), C(2)F(6), and C(3)F(8) emission estimates and observed global top-down emissions estimated from AGAGE measurements emphasize the need for more accurate, transparent, and complete emission reporting, and for verification with atmospheric measurements to assess the emission sources of these long-lived and potent greenhouse gases, which alter the radiative budget of the atmosphere, essentially permanently, once emitted.

2009
Muhle, J, Huang J, Weiss RF, Prinn RG, Miller BR, Salameh PK, Harth CM, Fraser PJ, Porter LW, Greally BR, O'Doherty S, Simmonds PG.  2009.  Sulfuryl fluoride in the global atmosphere. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres. 114   10.1029/2008jd011162   AbstractWebsite

The first calibrated high-frequency, high-precision, in situ atmospheric and archived air measurements of the fumigant sulfuryl fluoride (SO(2)F(2)) have been made as part of the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gas Experiment (AGAGE) program. The global tropospheric background concentration of SO(2)F(2) has increased by 5 +/- 1% per year from similar to 0.3 ppt (parts per trillion, dry air mol fraction) in 1978 to similar to 1.35 ppt in May 2007 in the Southern Hemisphere, and from similar to 1.08 ppt in 1999 to similar to 1.53 ppt in May 2007 in the Northern Hemisphere. The SO(2)F(2) interhemispheric concentration ratio was 1.13 +/- 0.02 from 1999 to 2007. Two-dimensional 12-box model inversions yield global total and global oceanic uptake atmospheric lifetimes of 36 +/- 11 and 40 +/- 13 years, respectively, with hydrolysis in the ocean being the dominant sink, in good agreement with 35 +/- 14 years from a simple oceanic uptake calculation using transfer velocity and solubility. Modeled SO2F2 emissions rose from similar to 0.6 Gg/a in 1978 to similar to 1.9 Gg/a in 2007, but estimated industrial production exceeds these modeled emissions by an average of similar to 50%. This discrepancy cannot be explained with a hypothetical land sink in the model, suggesting that only similar to 2/3 of the manufactured SO(2)F(2) is actually emitted into the atmosphere and that similar to 1/3 may be destroyed during fumigation. With mean SO(2)F(2) tropospheric mixing ratios of similar to 1.4 ppt, its radiative forcing is small and it is probably an insignificant sulfur source to the stratosphere. However, with a high global warming potential similar to CFC-11, and likely increases in its future use, continued atmospheric monitoring of SO(2)F(2) is warranted.

O'Doherty, S, Cunnold DM, Miller BR, Muhle J, McCulloch A, Simmonds PG, Manning AJ, Reimann S, Vollmer MK, Greally BR, Prinn RG, Fraser PJ, Steele LP, Krummel PB, Dunse BL, Porter LW, Lunder CR, Schmidbauer N, Hermansen O, Salameh PK, Harth CM, Wang RHJ, Weiss RF.  2009.  Global and regional emissions of HFC-125 (CHF2CF3) from in situ and air archive atmospheric observations at AGAGE and SOGE observatories. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres. 114   10.1029/2009jd012184   AbstractWebsite

High-frequency, in situ observations from the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) and System for Observation of halogenated Greenhouse gases in Europe (SOGE) networks for the period 1998 to 2008, combined with archive flask measurements dating back to 1978, have been used to capture the rapid growth of HFC-125 (CHF(2)CF(3)) in the atmosphere. HFC-125 is the fifth most abundant HFC, and it currently makes the third largest contribution of the HFCs to atmospheric radiative forcing. At the beginning of 2008 the global average was 5.6 ppt in the lower troposphere and the growth rate was 16% yr(-1). The extensive observations have been combined with a range of modeling techniques to derive global emission estimates in a top-down approach. It is estimated that 21 kt were emitted globally in 2007, and the emissions are estimated to have increased 15% yr(-1) since 2000. These estimates agree within approximately 20% with values reported to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) provided that estimated emissions from East Asia are included. Observations of regionally polluted air masses at individual AGAGE sites have been used to produce emission estimates for Europe (the EU-15 countries), the United States, and Australia. Comparisons between these top-down estimates and bottom-up estimates based on reports by individual countries to the UNFCCC show a range of approximately four in the differences. This process of independent verification of emissions, and an understanding of the differences, is vital for assessing the effectiveness of international treaties, such as the Kyoto Protocol.

Petrenko, VV, Smith AM, Brook EJ, Lowe D, Riedel K, Brailsford G, Hua Q, Schaefer H, Reeh N, Weiss RF, Etheridge D, Severinghaus JP.  2009.  14CH4 measurements in Greenland ice: investigating last glacial termination CH4 sources. Science. 324:506-508.   10.1126/science.1168909   AbstractWebsite

The cause of a large increase of atmospheric methane concentration during the Younger Dryas-Preboreal abrupt climatic transition (similar to 11,600 years ago) has been the subject of much debate. The carbon-14 (C-14) content of methane ((CH4)-C-14) should distinguish between wetland and clathrate contributions to this increase. We present measurements of (CH4)-C-14 in glacial ice, targeting this transition, performed by using ice samples obtained from an ablation site in west Greenland. Measured (CH4)-C-14 values were higher than predicted under any scenario. Sample (CH4)-C-14 appears to be elevated by direct cosmogenic C-14 production in ice. C-14 of CO was measured to better understand this process and correct the sample (CH4)-C-14. Corrected results suggest that wetland sources were likely responsible for the majority of the Younger Dryas-Preboreal CH4 rise.

2008
Huang, J, Golombek A, Prinn R, Weiss R, Fraser P, Simmonds P, Dlugokencky EJ, Hall B, Elkins J, Steele P, Langenfelds R, Krummel P, Dutton G, Porter L.  2008.  Estimation of regional emissions of nitrous oxide from 1997 to 2005 using multinetwork measurements, a chemical transport model, and an inverse method. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres. 113   10.1029/2007jd009381   AbstractWebsite

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is an important ozone-depleting gas and greenhouse gas with multiple uncertain emission processes. Global nitrous oxide observations, the Model of Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry (MATCH) and an inverse method were used to optimally estimate N2O emissions from twelve source regions around the globe. MATCH was used with forecast center reanalysis winds at T62 resolution (192 longitude by 94 latitude surface grid, and 28 vertical levels) from 1 July 1996 to 30 June 2006. The average concentrations of N2O in the lowest four layers of the model were then compared with the monthly mean observations from four national/international networks measuring at 65 surface sites. A 12-month-running-mean smoother was applied to both the model results and the observations, due to the fact that the model was not able to reproduce the very small observed seasonal cycles. The inverse method was then used to solve for the time-averaged regional emissions of N2O for two time periods (1 January 1997 to 31 December 2001 and 1 January 2002 to 31 December 2005). The best estimate inversions assume that the model stratospheric destruction rates, which lead to a global N2O lifetime of 125 years, are correct. It also assumes normalized emission spatial distributions within each region from Bouwman et al. (1995). We conclude that global N2O emissions with 66% probability errors are 16.3(-1.2)(+1.5) and 15.4(-1.3)(+1.7) TgN (N2O) a(-1), for 1997-2001 and 2001-2005 respectively. Emissions from the equator to 30 degrees N increased significantly from the initial Bouwman et al. (1995) estimates while emissions from southern oceans (30 degrees S-90 degrees S) decreased significantly. The quoted uncertainties include both the measurement errors and modeling uncertainties estimated using a separate flexible 12-box model. We also found that 23 +/- 4% of the N2O global total emissions come from the ocean, which is slightly smaller than the Bouwman et al. (1995) estimate. For the estimation of emissions from the twelve model regions, we conclude that, relative to Bouwman et al. (1995), land emissions from South America, Africa, and China/Japan/South East Asia are larger, while land emissions from Australia/New Zealand are smaller. Our study also shows a shift of the oceanic sources from the extratropical to the tropical oceans relative to Bouwman et al. (1995). Between the periods 1997-2001 and 2002-2005, emissions increased in China/Japan/South East Asia, 0 degrees-30 degrees N oceans, and North West Asia and decreased in Australia/New Zealand, 30 degrees S-90 degrees S oceans, 30 degrees N-90 degrees N oceans, and Africa. The lower tropical ocean emissions in 1997-2001 relative to 2002-2005 could result from the effects of the 1997-1998 El Nino in the earlier period.

Weiss, RF, Muhle J, Salameh PK, Harth CM.  2008.  Nitrogen trifluoride in the global atmosphere. Geophysical Research Letters. 35   10.1029/2008gl035913   AbstractWebsite

Background atmospheric abundances and trends of nitrogen trifluoride (NF(3)), a potent anthropogenic greenhouse gas, have been measured for the first time. The mean global tropospheric concentration of NF(3) has risen quasi-exponentially from about 0.02 ppt (parts-per-trillion, dry air mole fraction) at the beginning of our measured record in 1978, to a July 1, 2008 value of 0.454 ppt, with a rate of increase of 0.053 ppt yr(-1), or about 11% per year, and an interhemispheric gradient that is consistent with these emissions occuring overwhelmingly in the Northern Hemisphere, as expected. This rise rate corresponds to about 620 metric tons of current NF(3) emissions globally per year, or about 16% of the poorly-constrained global NF(3) production estimate of 4,000 metric tons yr(-1). This is a significantly higher percentage than has been estimated by industry, and thus strengthens the case for inventorying NF(3) production and for regulating its emissions. Citation: Weiss, R. F., J. Muhle, P. K., Salameh, and C.M. Harth (2008), Nitrogen trifluoride in the global atmosphere, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L208121, doi: 10.1029/2008GL035913.

Rigby, M, Prinn RG, Fraser PJ, Simmonds PG, Langenfelds RL, Huang J, Cunnold DM, Steele LP, Krummel PB, Weiss RF, O'Doherty S, Salameh PK, Wang HJ, Harth CM, Muhle J, Porter LW.  2008.  Renewed growth of atmospheric methane. Geophysical Research Letters. 35   10.1029/2008gl036037   AbstractWebsite

Following almost a decade with little change in global atmospheric methane mole fraction, we present measurements from the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) and the Australian Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) networks that show renewed growth starting near the beginning of 2007. Remarkably, a similar growth rate is found at all monitoring locations from this time until the latest measurements. We use these data, along with an inverse method applied to a simple model of atmospheric chemistry and transport, to investigate the possible drivers of the rise. Specifically, the relative roles of an increase in emission rate or a decrease in concentration of the hydroxyl radical, the largest methane sink, are examined. We conclude that: 1) if the annual mean hydroxyl radical concentration did not change, a substantial increase in emissions was required simultaneously in both hemispheres between 2006 and 2007; 2) if a small drop in the hydroxyl radical concentration occurred, consistent with AGAGE methyl chloroform measurements, the emission increase is more strongly biased to the Northern Hemisphere. Citation: Rigby, M., et al. (2008), Renewed growth of atmospheric methane, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L22805, doi: 10.1029/2008GL036037.

Deeds, DA, Vollmer MK, Kulongoski JT, Miller BR, Muhle J, Harth CM, Izbicki JA, Hilton DR, Weiss RF.  2008.  Evidence for crustal degassing of CF4 and SF6 in Mojave Desert groundwaters. Geochimica Et Cosmochimica Acta. 72:999-1013.   10.1016/j.gca.2007.11.027   AbstractWebsite

Dissolved tetrafluoromethane (CF(4)) and sulfur hexafluoride (SF(6)) concentrations were measured in groundwater samples from the Eastern Morongo Basin (EMB) and Mojave River Basin (MRB) located in the southern Mojave Desert, California. Both CF(4) and SF(6) are supersaturated with respect to equilibrium with the preindustrial atmosphere at the recharge temperatures and elevations of the Mojave Desert. These observations provide the first in situ evidence for a flux of CF(4) from the lithosphere. A gradual basin-wide enhancement in dissolved CF(4) and SF(6) concentrations with groundwater age is consistent with release of these gases during weathering of the surrounding granitic alluvium. Dissolved CF(4) and SF(6) concentrations in these groundwaters also contain a deeper crustal component associated with a lithospheric flux entering the EMB and MRB through the underlying basement. The crustal flux of CF(4), but not of SF(6), is enhanced in the vicinity of local active fault systems due to release of crustal fluids during episodic fracture events driven by local tectonic activity. When fluxes of CF(4) and SF(6) into Mojave Desert groundwaters are extrapolated to the global scale they are consistent, within large uncertainties, with the fluxes required to sustain the preindustrial atmospheric abundances of CF(4) and SF(6). (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Petrenko, VV, Severinghaus JP, Brook EJ, Muhle J, Headly M, Harth CM, Schaefer H, Reeh N, Weiss RF, Lowe D, Smith AM.  2008.  A novel method for obtaining very large ancient air samples from ablating glacial ice for analyses of methane radiocarbon. Journal of Glaciology. 54:233-244.   10.3189/002214308784886135   AbstractWebsite

We present techniques for obtaining large (similar to 100 L STP) samples of ancient air for analysis of (14)C of methane ((14)CH(4)) and other trace constituents. Paleoatmospheric (14)CH(4) measurements should constrain the fossil fraction of past methane budgets, as well as provide a definitive test of methane clathrate involvement in large and rapid methane concentration ([CH(4)]) increases that accompanied rapid warming events during the last deglaciation. Air dating to the Younger Dryas-Preboreal and Oldest Dryas-Bolling abrupt climatic transitions was obtained by melt extraction from old glacial ice outcropping at an ablation margin in West Greenland. The outcropping ice and occluded air were dated using a combination of delta(15)N of N(2), delta(18)O of O(2), delta(18)O(ice) and [CH(4)] measurements. The [CH(4)] blank of the melt extractions was <4 ppb. Measurements of delta(18)O and delta(15)N indicated no significant gas isotopic fractionation from handling. Measured Ar/N(2), CFC-11 and CFC-12 in the samples indicated no significant contamination from ambient air. Ar/N(2), Kr/Ar and Xe/Ar ratios in the samples were used to quantify effects of gas dissolution during the melt extractions and correct the sample [CH(4)]. Corrected [CH(4)] is elevated over expected values by up to 132 ppb for most samples, suggesting some in situ CH(4) production in ice at this site.

2007
Greally, BR, Manning AJ, Reimann S, McCulloch A, Huang J, Dunse BL, Simmonds PG, Prinn RG, Fraser PJ, Cunnold DM, O'Doherty S, Porter LW, Stemmler K, Vollmer MK, Lunder CR, Schmidbauer N, Hermansen O, Arduini J, Salameh PK, Krummel PB, Wang RHJ, Folini D, Weiss RF, Maione M, Nickless G, Stordal F, Derwent RG.  2007.  Observations of 1,1-difluoroethane (HFC-152a) at AGAGE and SOGE monitoring stations in 1994-2004 and derived global and regional emission estimates. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres. 112   10.1029/2006jd007527   AbstractWebsite

[1] Ground-based in situ measurements of 1,1-difluoroethane (HFC-152a, CH3CHF2) which is regulated under the Kyoto Protocol are reported under the auspices of the AGAGE (Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment) and SOGE (System of Observation of halogenated Greenhouse gases in Europe) programs. Observations of HFC-152a at five locations (four European and one Australian) over a 10 year period were recorded. The annual average growth rate of HFC-152a in the midlatitude Northern Hemisphere has risen from 0.11 ppt/yr to 0.6 ppt/yr from 1994 to 2004. The Southern Hemisphere annual average growth rate has risen from 0.09 ppt/yr to 0.4 ppt/yr from 1998 to 2004. The 2004 average mixing ratio for HFC-152a was 5.0 ppt and 1.8 ppt in the Northern and Southern hemispheres, respectively. The annual cycle observed for this species in both hemispheres is approximately consistent with measured annual cycles at the same locations in other gases which are destroyed by OH. Yearly global emissions of HFC-152a from 1994 to 2004 are derived using the global mean HFC-152a observations and a 12-box 2-D model. The global emission of HFC-152a has risen from 7 Kt/yr to 28 Kt/yr from 1995 to 2004. On the basis of observations of above-baseline elevations in the HFC-152a record and a consumption model, regional emission estimates for Europe and Australia are calculated, indicating accelerating emissions from Europe since 2000. The overall European emission in 2004 ranges from 1.5 to 4.0 Kt/year, 5-15% of global emissions for 1,1-difluoroethane, while the Australian contribution is negligible at 5-10 tonnes/year, < 0.05% of global emissions.

Xiao, X, Prinn RG, Simmonds PG, Steele LP, Novelli PC, Huang J, Langenfelds RL, O'Doherty S, Krummel PB, Fraser PJ, Porter LW, Weiss RF, Salameh P, Wang RHJ.  2007.  Optimal estimation of the soil uptake rate of molecular hydrogen from the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment and other measurements. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres. 112   10.1029/2006jd007241   AbstractWebsite

[1] Hydrogen (H(2)), a proposed clean energy alternative, warrants detailed investigation of its global budget and future environmental impacts. The magnitudes and seasonal cycles of the major ( presumably microbial) soil sink of hydrogen have been estimated from high-frequency in situ AGAGE H(2) observations and also from more geographically extensive but low-frequency flask measurements from CSIRO and NOAA-GMD using the Kalman filter in a two-dimensional (2-D) global transport model. Hydrogen mole fractions exhibit well-defined seasonal cycles in each hemisphere with their phase difference being only about 3 months. The global production rate of H(2) is estimated to be 103 +/- 10 Tg yr(-1) with only a small estimated interannual variation. Soil uptake ( 84 +/- 8 Tg yr(-1)) represents the major loss process for H(2) and accounts for 81% of the total destruction. Strong seasonal cycles are deduced for the soil uptake of H(2). The soil sink is a maximum over the northern extratropics in summer and peaks only 2 to 3 months earlier in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere. Oxidation by tropospheric OH (18 +/- 3 Tg yr(-1)) accounts for 17% of the destruction, with the remainder due to destruction in the stratosphere. The calculated global burden is 191 +/- 29 Tg, indicating an overall atmospheric lifetime of 1.8 +/- 0.3 years. Hydrogen in the troposphere ( 149 +/- 23 Tg burden) has a lifetime of 1.4 +/- 0.2 years.

Forster, P, Ramaswamy V, Artaxo P, Berntsen J, Betts R, Fahey DW, Haywood J, Lean J, Lowe DC, Myhre G, Nganga J, Prinn R, Raga G, Schulz M, van Dorland R, Bodeker G, Boucher O, Collins WD, Conway TJ, Dlugokencky E, Elkins JW, Etheridge D, Foukal P, Fraser P, Geller M, Joos F, Keeling CD, Keeling R, Kinne S, Lassey K, Lohmann U, Manning AC, Montzka SA, Oram D, O'Shaughnessy K, Piper SC, Plattner GK, Ponater M, Ramankutty N, Reid GC, Rind D, Rosenlof KH, Sausen R, Schwarzkopf D, Solanki SK, Stenchikov G, Stuber N, Takemura T, Textor C, Wang R, Weiss R, Whorf T.  2007.  Changes in atmospheric constituents and in radiative forcing. Climate Change 2007 : The Physical Science Basis : Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. ( Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt K, Tignor M, Miller H, Eds.).:129-234., Cambridge; New York: Cambridge University Press Abstract

For policymakers -- Technical summary -- Historical overview of climate change science -- Changes in atmospheric constituents and radiative forcing -- Observations: atmospheric surface and climate change -- Observations: changes in snow, ice, and frozen ground -- Observations: ocean climate change and sea level -- Paleoclimate -- Coupling between changes in the climate system and biogeochemistry -- Climate models and their evaluation -- Understanding and attributing climate change -- Global climate projections -- Regional climate projections -- Annex I: Glossary -- Annex II: Contributors to the IPCC WGI Fourth Assessment Report -- Annex III: Reviewers of the IPCC WGI Fourth Assessment Report -- Annex IV: Acronyms.

2005
Vollmer, MK, Bootsma HA, Hecky RE, Patterson G, Halfman JD, Edmond JM, Eccles DH, Weiss RF.  2005.  Deep-water warming trend in Lake Malawi, East Africa. Limnology and Oceanography. 50:727-732. AbstractWebsite

We use historic water temperature measurements to define a deep-water warming trend in Lake Malawi, East Africa. Over the past six decades, the temperature of the deep water below 300 m has increased by similar to 0.7 degrees C. The warming trend is due mainly to the reduction of cold-water deep convection over this period, which is associated with milder winters in the region. Despite deep-water warming, density stratification was maintained at depths below 100 in. The observed warming trend was interrupted at least twice by abyssal cooling events that were associated with the wettest years on record. We propose that rainfall and cool river inflow are critical factors that control thermal structure and the rate of deep-water recharge in this deep, tropical lake.

Li, JL, Cunnold DM, Wang HJ, Weiss RF, Miller BR, Harth C, Salameh P, Harris JM.  2005.  Halocarbon emissions estimated from advanced global atmospheric gases experiment measured pollution events at Trinidad Head, California. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres. 110   10.1029/2004jd005739   AbstractWebsite

The emissions of halogenated gases from the West Coast region of the United States are estimated from measurements from 1995 to 2003 at the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment site at Trinidad Head, California. The emissions estimation procedure uses pollution events combined with population densities integrated along back trajectories, and the estimates are constrained by independent estimates of CH4 and N2O emissions from the U. S. West Coast region. The best fit, average emissions of CH4 and N2O and the average chloroform emissions in California, Oregon, and Washington combined from 1996 to 2002 are 44, 3.7, and 0.07 kg person(-1) yr(-1), respectively. The emissions per person of CFC-11 (CCl3F), CFC-2 (CCl2F2), CFC-113 (CCl2FCClF2), and methyl chloroform (CH3CCl3) from California in 1996-1998 are calculated to be factors of approximately 2.2, 1.3, 0.7, and 1.6, respectively, less (more for CFC-113) than those reported for the northeastern United States by Barnes et al. (2003). The emission per person of all these gases in the U. S. West Coast region decreased from 1998 to 1999 by a factor of 2 or more, but from 1999 to 2002 the estimated emissions of all four gases have remained fairly constant and are 0.016, 0.048, 0.002, and 0.006 kg person(-1) yr(-1), respectively. The methyl chloroform estimates suggest a delay of up to 1 year in the decline of the emissions from 1996 to 1998, but otherwise, and in 1999-2000, in contrast to the Millet and Goldstein (2004) results, they are in agreement with the average methyl chloroform emissions per person for the United States based on the UNEP country by country consumption figures (A. McCulloch, private communication, 2004). Averaging the Trinidad Head and the Barnes et al. (2003) per person estimates and multiplying by the U. S. population suggests average methyl chloroform emissions in the United States of 18 Gg yr(-1) in 1996 to 1998. In 2001-2002, if the ratio of the emissions per person in these two regions was the same as in 1996-1998, we estimate U. S. emissions of 2.2 Gg yr(-1), which is one half of the Millet and Goldstein (2004) estimate.

Nevison, CD, Keeling RF, Weiss RF, Popp BN, Jin X, Fraser PJ, Porter LW, Hess PG.  2005.  Southern Ocean ventilation inferred from seasonal cycles of atmospheric N2O and O2/N2 at Cape Grim, Tasmania. Tellus Series B-Chemical and Physical Meteorology. 57:218-229.   10.1111/j.1600-0889.2005.00143.x   AbstractWebsite

The seasonal cycle of atmospheric N(2)O is derived from a 10-yr observational record at Cape Grim, Tasmania (41 degrees S, 145 degrees E). After correcting for thermal and stratospheric influences, the observed atmospheric seasonal cycle is consistent with the seasonal outgassing of microbially produced N(2)O from the Southern Ocean, as predicted by an ocean biogeochemistry model coupled to an atmospheric transport model (ATM). The model-observation comparison suggests a Southern Ocean N(2)O source of similar to 0.9 Tg N yr(-1) and is the first study to reproduce observed atmospheric seasonal cycles in N(2)O using specified surface sources in forward ATM runs. However, these results are sensitive to the thermal and stratospheric corrections applied to the atmospheric N(2)O data. The correlation in subsurface waters between apparent oxygen utilization (AOU) and N(2)O production (approximated as the concentration in excess of atmospheric equilibrium Delta N(2)O) is exploited to infer the atmospheric seasonal cycle in O(2)/N(2) due to ventilation of O(2)-depleted subsurface waters. Subtracting this cycle from the observed, thermally corrected seasonal cycle in atmospheric O(2)/N(2) allows the residual O(2)/N(2) signal from surface net community production to be inferred. Because N(2)O is only produced in subsurface ocean waters, where it is correlated to O(2) consumption, atmospheric N(2)O observations provide a methodology for distinguishing the surface production and subsurface ventilation signals in atmospheric O(2)/N(2), which have previously been inseparable.

Reimann, S, Manning AJ, Simmonds PG, Cunnold DM, Wang RHJ, Li JL, McCulloch A, Prinn RG, Huang J, Weiss RF, Fraser PJ, O'Doherty S, Greally BR, Stemmler K, Hill M, Folini D.  2005.  Low European methyl chloroform emissions inferred from long-term atmospheric measurements. Nature. 433:506-508.   10.1038/nature03220   AbstractWebsite

Methyl chloroform (CH3CCl3, 1,1,1,-trichloroethane) was used widely as a solvent before it was recognized to be an ozone-depleting substance and its phase-out was introduced under the Montreal Protocol(1). Subsequently, its atmospheric concentration has declined steadily(2-4) and recent European methyl chloroform consumption and emissions were estimated to be less than 0.1 gigagrams per year(1,5). However, data from a short-term tropospheric measurement campaign ( EXPORT) indicated that European methyl chloroform emissions could have been over 20 gigagrams in 2000 (ref. 6), almost doubling previously estimated global emissions(1,4). Such enhanced emissions would significantly affect results from the CH3CCl3 method of deriving global abundances of hydroxyl radicals ( OH) (refs 7 - 12) - the dominant reactive atmospheric chemical for removing trace gases related to air pollution, ozone depletion and the greenhouse effect. Here we use long-term, high-frequency data from MaceHead, Ireland and Jungfraujoch, Switzerland, to infer European methyl chloroform emissions. We find that European emission estimates declined from about 60 gigagrams per year in the mid-1990s to 0.3 - 1.4 and 1.9 - 3.4 gigagrams per year in 2000 - 03, based on Mace Head and Jungfraujoch data, respectively. Our European methyl chloroform emission estimates are therefore higher than calculated from consumption data(1,5), but are considerably lower than those derived from the EXPORT campaign in 2000 ( ref. 6).

Prinn, RG, Huang J, Weiss RF, Cunnold DM, Fraser PJ, Simmonds PG, McCulloch A, Harth C, Reimann S, Salameh P, O'Doherty S, Wang RHJ, Porter LW, Miller BR, Krummel PB.  2005.  Evidence for variability of atmospheric hydroxyl radicals over the past quarter century. Geophysical Research Letters. 32   10.1029/2004gl022228   AbstractWebsite

The hydroxyl free radical (OH) is the major oxidizing chemical in the atmosphere, destroying about 3.7 petagrams (Pg) of trace gases each year, including many gases involved in ozone depletion, the greenhouse effect and urban air pollution. Measurements of 1,1,1-trichloroethane (methyl chloroform, CH3CCl3), which reacts with OH, provide the most accurate method currently utilized for determining the global behavior of OH. We report that CH3CCl3 levels rose steadily from 1978 to reach a maximum in 1992 and have since decreased rapidly to levels in 2004 about 30% of the levels when measurements began in 1978. Analysis of these observations shows that global average OH levels had a small maximum around 1989 and a larger minimum around 1998, with OH concentrations in 2003 being comparable to those in 1979. This post-1998 recovery of OH reported here contrasts with the situation 4 years ago when reported OH was decreasing. The 1997-1999 OH minimum coincides with, and is likely caused by, major global wildfires and an intense El Nino event at this time.

Greally, BR, Simmonds PG, O'Doherty S, McCulloch A, Miller BR, Salameh PK, Muhle J, Tanhua T, Harth C, Weiss RF, Fraser PJ, Krummel PB, Dunse BL, Porter LW, Prinn RG.  2005.  Improved continuous in situ measurements of C1–C3 PFCs, HFCs, HCFCs, CFCs and SF6 in Europe and Australia. Environmental Sciences. 2:253-261.   10.1080/15693430500402614   Abstract

Improved monitoring of non-CO2 greenhouse gases in air samples is presented, achieved using a new analytical system based on preconcentration, gas-chromatography and mass spectrometry. In addition to the major HFCs, HCFCs and CFCs, the new observations include the first in situ time series of the C1–C3 PFCs (CF4, C2F6 and C3F8) and the more volatile of the HFCs (CHF3, CH2F2, CH3CF3) alongside SF6, all of which are now monitored routinely as part of the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE). Observed trends in newly monitored species are shown, obtained from 1–2 years continuous in situ air analyses at remote monitoring sites at Mace Head (Ireland) and Cape Grim (Australia). Observed deviations in the air background for these gas species are linked to modelled trajectories of air masses arriving at the monitoring stations to indicate potential source regions for emissions in Europe and Australia. In addition, preliminary estimates of 2004 mixing ratio growth rates of compounds are deduced from the observations, which highlight the importance of continuous atmospheric monitoring for verification of consumption-based emission estimates of non-CO2 greenhouse gases.

2004
O'Doherty, S, Cunnold DM, Manning A, Miller BR, Wang RHJ, Krummel PB, Fraser PJ, Simmonds PG, McCulloch A, Weiss RF, Salameh P, Porter LW, Prinn RG, Huang J, Sturrock G, Ryall D, Derwent RG, Montzka SA.  2004.  Rapid growth of hydrofluorocarbon 134a and hydrochlorofluorocarbons 141b, 142b, and 22 from Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) observations at Cape Grim, Tasmania, and Mace Head, Ireland. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres. 109   10.1029/2003jd004277   AbstractWebsite

[1] An update of in situ Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) hydrofluorocarbon (HFC)/hydrochlorofluorocarbon ( HCFC) measurements made at Mace Head, Ireland, and Cape Grim, Tasmania, from 1998 to 2002 are reported. HCFC-142b, HCFC-141b, HCFC-22 and HFC-134a show continued rapid growth in the atmosphere at mean rates of 1.1, 1.6, 6.0, and 3.4 ppt/year, respectively. Emissions inferred from measurements are compared to recent estimates from consumption data. Minor updates to the industry estimates of emissions are reported together with a discussion of how to best determine OH concentrations from these trace gas measurements. In addition, AGAGE measurements and derived emissions are compared to those deduced from NOAA-Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory flask measurements ( which are mostly made at different locations). European emission estimates obtained from Mace Head pollution events using the Nuclear Accident Model ( NAME) dispersion model and the best fit algorithm ( known as simulated annealing) are presented as 3-year rolling average emissions over Europe for the period 1999-2001. Finally, the measurements of HCFC-141b, HCFC-142b, and HCFC-22 discussed in this paper have been combined with the Atmospheric Lifetime Experiment (ALE)/Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (GAGE)/AGAGE measurements of CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-113, CCl4, and CH3CCl3 to produce the evolution of tropospheric chlorine loading.

2002
Waugh, DW, Vollmer MK, Weiss RF, Haine TWN, Hall TM.  2002.  Transit time distributions in Lake Issyk-Kul. Geophysical Research Letters. 29   10.1029/2002gl016201   AbstractWebsite

[1] Measurements of sulfur hexafluoride (SF6)and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) are used to constrain the timescales for deep-water renewal in Lake Issyk-Kul. As these tracers have different tropospheric histories their combination provides more transport information than one tracer alone. In particular, from these measurements the mean, Gamma, and standard deviation, sigma, of the distributions of transit times since water made last contact with the surface can be tightly constrained. Gamma is older than the age determined from SF6 and younger than the ages from the CFCs, and increases from around 4 yrs at 200 m to around 10.5 yrs at the deepest location (655 m). sigma also increases with depth and equals around 0.7 to 0.8 Gamma, which corresponds to large ranges of transit times, and implies mixing processes play a major role in the transport. The approach used can also be applied to similar tracer measurements in the oceans and groundwaters to constrain transport in these geophysical systems.