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2015
Wells, KC, Millet DB, Bousserez N, Henze DK, Chaliyakunnel S, Griffis TJ, Luan Y, Dlugokencky EJ, Prinn RG, O'Doherty S, Weiss RF, Dutton GS, Elkins JW, Krummel PB, Langenfelds R, Steele LP, Kort EA, Wofsy SC, Umezawa T.  2015.  Simulation of atmospheric N2O with GEOS-Chem and its adjoint: evaluation of observational constraints. Geoscientific Model Development. 8:3179-3198.   10.5194/gmd-8-3179-2015   AbstractWebsite

We describe a new 4D-Var inversion framework for nitrous oxide (N2O) based on the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model and its adjoint, and apply it in a series of observing system simulation experiments to assess how well N2O sources and sinks can be constrained by the current global observing network. The employed measurement ensemble includes approximately weekly and quasicontinuous N2O measurements (hourly averages used) from several long-term monitoring networks, N2O measurements collected from discrete air samples onboard a commercial aircraft (Civil Aircraft for the Regular Investigation of the atmosphere Based on an Instrument Container; CARIBIC), and quasi-continuous measurements from the airborne HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) campaigns. For a 2-year inversion, we find that the surface and HIPPO observations can accurately resolve a uniform bias in emissions during the first year; CARIBIC data provide a somewhat weaker constraint. Variable emission errors are much more difficult to resolve given the long lifetime of N2O, and major parts of the world lack significant constraints on the seasonal cycle of fluxes. Current observations can largely correct a global bias in the stratospheric sink of N2O if emissions are known, but do not provide information on the temporal and spatial distribution of the sink. However, for the more realistic scenario where source and sink are both uncertain, we find that simultaneously optimizing both would require unrealistically small errors in model transport. Regardless, a bias in the magnitude of the N2O sink would not affect the a posteriori N2O emissions for the 2-year timescale used here, given realistic initial conditions, due to the timescale required for stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE). The same does not apply to model errors in the rate of STE itself, which we show exerts a larger influence on the tropospheric burden of N2O than does the chemical loss rate over short (< 3 year) timescales. We use a stochastic estimate of the inverse Hessian for the inversion to evaluate the spatial resolution of emission constraints provided by the observations, and find that significant, spatially explicit constraints can be achieved in locations near and immediately upwind of surface measurements and the HIPPO flight tracks; however, these are mostly confined to North America, Europe, and Australia. None of the current observing networks are able to provide significant spatial information on tropical N2O emissions. There, averaging kernels (describing the sensitivity of the inversion to emissions in each grid square) are highly smeared spatially and extend even to the midlatitudes, so that tropical emissions risk being conflated with those elsewhere. For global inversions, therefore, the current lack of constraints on the tropics also places an important limit on our ability to understand extratropical emissions. Based on the error reduction statistics from the inverse Hessian, we characterize the atmospheric distribution of unconstrained N2O, and identify regions in and downwind of South America, central Africa, and Southeast Asia where new surface or profile measurements would have the most value for reducing present uncertainty in the global N2O budget.

Lunt, MF, Rigby M, Ganesan AL, Manning AJ, Prinn RG, O'Doherty S, Muhle J, Harth CM, Salameh PK, Arnold T, Weiss RF, Saito T, Yokouchi Y, Krummel PB, Steele LP, Fraser PJ, Li SL, Park S, Reimann S, Vollmer MK, Lunder C, Hermansen O, Schmidbauer N, Maione M, Arduini J, Young D, Simmonds PG.  2015.  Reconciling reported and unreported HFC emissions with atmospheric observations. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 112:5927-5931.   10.1073/pnas.1420247112   AbstractWebsite

We infer global and regional emissions of five of the most abundant hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) using atmospheric measurements from the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment and the National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan, networks. We find that the total CO2-equivalent emissions of the five HFCs from countries that are required to provide detailed, annual reports to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) increased from 198 (175-221) Tg-CO2-eq.y(-1) in 2007 to 275 (246-304) Tg-CO2-eq.y(-1) in 2012. These global warming potential-weighted aggregated emissions agree well with those reported to the UNFCCC throughout this period and indicate that the gap between reported emissions and global HFC emissions derived from atmospheric trends is almost entirely due to emissions from nonreporting countries. However, our measurement-based estimates of individual HFC species suggest that emissions, from reporting countries, of the most abundant HFC, HFC-134a, were only 79% (63-95%) of the UNFCCC inventory total, while other HFC emissions were significantly greater than the reported values. These results suggest that there are inaccuracies in the reporting methods for individual HFCs, which appear to cancel when aggregated together.

2014
Rhoderick, G, Guenther F, Duewer D, Lee J, Kim JS, Hall B, Weiss R, Harth C, Reimann S, Vollmer M.  2014.  CCQM-P151 final report pilot study CCQM P151 halocarbons in dry whole air. Metrologia. 51 AbstractWebsite

The growing awareness of climate change/global warming and continuing concerns regarding stratospheric ozone depletion will require future measurements and standards for many compounds, in particular halocarbons that are linked to these issues. In order to track and control the emissions of these species globally in the atmosphere, it is necessary to demonstrate measurement equivalence at the highest levels of accuracy for assigned values of standards. This report describes the results of a pilot study between National Metrology Institutes and atmospheric research laboratories for several of the more important halocarbons at atmospheric concentration levels. The comparison includes the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) dichlorodifluoromethane (CFC 12), trichlorofluoromethane (CFC 11), and 1,1,2- trichlorotrifluoroethane (CFC 113); the hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) chlorodifluoromethane (HCFC 22) and 1-chloro-1,1-difluoroethane (HCFC 142b); and the hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) 1,1,1,2 tetrafluoroethane (HFC 134a), all in a dried whole air sample. The objective of this key comparison is to compare the measurement capabilities of the participants for these halocarbons at trace atmospheric levels.

O'Doherty, S, Rigby M, Muhle J, Ivy DJ, Miller BR, Young D, Simmonds PG, Reimann S, Vollmer MK, Krummel PB, Fraser PJ, Steele LP, Dunse B, Salameh PK, Harth CM, Arnold T, Weiss RF, Kim J, Park S, Li S, Lunder C, Hermansen O, Schmidbauer N, Zhou LX, Yao B, Wang RHJ, Manning AJ, Prinn RG.  2014.  Global emissions of HFC-143a (CH3CF3) and HFC-32 (CH2F2) from in situ and air archive atmospheric observations. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. 14:9249-9258.   10.5194/acp-14-9249-2014   AbstractWebsite

High-frequency, in situ observations from the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE), for the period 2003 to 2012, combined with archive flask measurements dating back to 1977, have been used to capture the rapid growth of HFC-143a (CH3CF3) and HFC-32 (CH2F2) mole fractions and emissions into the atmosphere. Here we report the first in situ global measurements of these two gases. HFC-143a and HFC-32 are the third and sixth most abundant hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) respectively and they currently make an appreciable contribution to the HFCs in terms of atmospheric radiative forcing (1.7 +/- 0.04 and 0.7 +/- 0.02 mW m(-2) in 2012 respectively). In 2012 the global average mole fraction of HFC-143a was 13.4 +/- 0.3 ppt (1 sigma) in the lower troposphere and its growth rate was 1.4 +/- 0.04 ppt yr(-1); HFC-32 had a global mean mole fraction of 6.2 +/- 0.2 ppt and a growth rate of 1.1 +/- 0.04 ppt yr(-1) in 2012. The extensive observations presented in this work have been combined with an atmospheric transport model to simulate global atmospheric abundances and derive global emission estimates. It is estimated that 23 +/- 3 Gg yr(-1) of HFC-143a and 21 +/- 11 Gg yr(-1) of HFC-32 were emitted globally in 2012, and the emission rates are estimated to be increasing by 7 +/- 5% yr(-1) for HFC-143a and 14 +/- 11% yr(-1) for HFC-32.

Patra, PK, Krol MC, Montzka SA, Arnold T, Atlas EL, Lintner BR, Stephens BB, Xiang B, Elkins JW, Fraser PJ, Ghosh A, Hintsa EJ, Hurst DF, Ishijima K, Krummel PB, Miller BR, Miyazaki K, Moore FL, Muhle J, O'Doherty S, Prinn RG, Steele LP, Takigawa M, Wang HJ, Weiss RF, Wofsy SC, Young D.  2014.  Observational evidence for interhemispheric hydroxyl-radical parity. Nature. 513:219-+.   10.1038/nature13721   AbstractWebsite

The hydroxyl radical (OH) is a key oxidant involved in the removal of air pollutants and greenhouse gases from the atmosphere(1-3). The ratio of Northern Hemispheric to Southern Hemispheric (NH/SH) OH concentration is important for our understanding of emission estimates of atmospheric species such as nitrogen oxides and methane(4-6). It remains poorly constrained, however, with a range of estimates from 0.85 to 1.4 (refs 4,7-10). Here we determine the NH/SH ratio of OH with the help of methyl chloroform data (a proxy for OH concentrations) and an atmospheric transport model that accurately describes interhemispheric transport and modelled emissions. We find that for the years 2004-2011 the model predicts an annual mean NH-SH gradient of methyl chloroform that is a tight linear function of the modelled NH/SH ratio in annual mean OH. We estimate a NH/SH OH ratio of 0.97 +/- 0.12 during this time period by optimizing global total emissions and mean OH abundance to fit methyl chloroform data from two surface-measurement networks and aircraft campaigns(11-13). Our findings suggest that top-down emission estimates of reactive species such as nitrogen oxides in key emitting countries in the NH that are based on a NH/SH OH ratio larger than 1 may be overestimated.

Kim, J, Fraser PJ, Li S, Muhle J, Ganesan AL, Krummel PB, Steele LP, Park S, Kim SK, Park MK, Arnold T, Harth CM, Salameh PK, Prinn RG, Weiss RF, Kim KR.  2014.  Quantifying aluminum and semiconductor industry perfluorocarbon emissions from atmospheric measurements. Geophysical Research Letters. 41:4787-4794.   10.1002/2014gl059783   AbstractWebsite

The potent anthropogenic perfluorocarbon greenhouse gases tetrafluoromethane (CF4) and hexafluoroethane (C2F6) are emitted to the atmosphere mainly by the aluminum and semiconductor industries. Global emissions of these perfluorocarbons (PFCs) calculated from atmospheric measurements are significantly greater than expected from reported national and industry-based emission inventories. In this study, in situ measurements of the two PFCs in the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment network are used to show that their emission ratio varies according to the relative regional presence of these two industries, providing an industry-specific emission "signature" to apportion the observed emissions. Our results suggest that underestimated emissions from the global semiconductor industry during 1990-2010, as well as from China's aluminum industry after 2002, account for the observed differences between emissions based on atmospheric measurements and on inventories. These differences are significant despite the large uncertainties in emissions based on the methodologies used by these industries.

Thompson, RL, Ishijima K, Saikawa E, Corazza M, Karstens U, Patra PK, Bergamaschi P, Chevallier F, Dlugokencky E, Prinn RG, Weiss RF, O'Doherty S, Fraser PJ, Steele LP, Krummel PB, Vermeulen A, Tohjima Y, Jordan A, Haszpra L, Steinbacher M, Van der Laan S, Aalto T, Meinhardt F, Popa ME, Moncrieff J, Bousquet P.  2014.  TransCom N2O model inter-comparison - Part 2: Atmospheric inversion estimates of N2O emissions. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. 14:6177-6194.   10.5194/acp-14-6177-2014   AbstractWebsite

This study examines N2O emission estimates from five different atmospheric inversion frameworks based on chemistry transport models (CTMs). The five frameworks differ in the choice of CTM, meteorological data, prior uncertainties and inversion method but use the same prior emissions and observation data set. The posterior modelled atmospheric N2O mole fractions are compared to observations to assess the performance of the inversions and to help diagnose problems in the modelled transport. Additionally, the mean emissions for 2006 to 2008 are compared in terms of the spatial distribution and seasonality. Overall, there is a good agreement among the inversions for the mean global total emission, which ranges from 16.1 to 18.7 TgN yr(-1) and is consistent with previous estimates. Ocean emissions represent between 31 and 38% of the global total compared to widely varying previous estimates of 24 to 38%. Emissions from the northern mid- to high latitudes are likely to be more important, with a consistent shift in emissions from the tropics and subtropics to the mid- to high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere; the emission ratio for 0-30A degrees N to 30-90A degrees N ranges from 1.5 to 1.9 compared with 2.9 to 3.0 in previous estimates. The largest discrepancies across inversions are seen for the regions of South and East Asia and for tropical and South America owing to the poor observational constraint for these areas and to considerable differences in the modelled transport, especially inter-hemispheric exchange rates and tropical convective mixing. Estimates of the seasonal cycle in N2O emissions are also sensitive to errors in modelled stratosphere-to-troposphere transport in the tropics and southern extratropics. Overall, the results show a convergence in the global and regional emissions compared to previous independent studies.

Saikawa, E, Prinn RG, Dlugokencky E, Ishijima K, Dutton GS, Hall BD, Langenfelds R, Tohjima Y, Machida T, Manizza M, Rigby M, O'Doherty S, Patra PK, Harth CM, Weiss RF, Krummel PB, van der Schoot M, Fraser PJ, Steele LP, Aoki S, Nakazawa T, Elkins JW.  2014.  Global and regional emissions estimates for N2O. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. 14:4617-4641.   10.5194/acp-14-4617-2014   AbstractWebsite

We present a comprehensive estimate of nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions using observations and models from 1995 to 2008. High-frequency records of tropospheric N2O are available from measurements at Cape Grim, Tasmania; Cape Matatula, American Samoa; Ragged Point, Barbados; Mace Head, Ireland; and at Trinidad Head, California using the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) instrumentation and calibrations. The Global Monitoring Division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA/ESRL) has also collected discrete air samples in flasks and in situ measurements from remote sites across the globe and analyzed them for a suite of species including N2O. In addition to these major networks, we include in situ and aircraft measurements from the National Institute of Environmental Studies (NIES) and flask measurements from the Tohoku University and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) networks. All measurements show increasing atmospheric mole fractions of N2O, with a varying growth rate of 0.1-0.7% per year, resulting in a 7.4% increase in the background atmospheric mole fraction between 1979 and 2011. Using existing emission inventories as well as bottom-up process modeling results, we first create globally gridded a priori N2O emissions over the 37 years since 1975. We then use the three-dimensional chemical transport model, Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers version 4 (MOZART v4), and a Bayesian inverse method to estimate global as well as regional annual emissions for five source sectors from 13 regions in the world. This is the first time that all of these measurements from multiple networks have been combined to determine emissions. Our inversion indicates that global and regional N2O emissions have an increasing trend between 1995 and 2008. Despite large uncertainties, a significant increase is seen from the Asian agricultural sector in recent years, most likely due to an increase in the use of nitrogenous fertilizers, as has been suggested by previous studies.

Ganesan, AL, Rigby M, Zammit-Mangion A, Manning AJ, Prinn RG, Fraser PJ, Harth CM, Kim KR, Krummel PB, Li S, Mühle J, O'Doherty SJ, Park S, Salameh PK, Steele LP, Weiss RF.  2014.  Characterization of uncertainties in atmospheric trace gas inversions using hierarchical Bayesian methods. Atmos. Chem. Phys.. 14:3855-3864.: Copernicus Publications   10.5194/acp-14-3855-2014   AbstractWebsite
n/a
Rigby, M, Prinn RG, O'Doherty S, Miller BR, Ivy D, Muhle J, Harth CM, Salameh PK, Arnold T, Weiss RF, Krummel PB, Steele LP, Fraser PJ, Young D, Simmonds PG.  2014.  Recent and future trends in synthetic greenhouse gas radiative forcing. Geophysical Research Letters. 41:2623-2630.   10.1002/2013gl059099   AbstractWebsite

Atmospheric measurements show that emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons are now the primary drivers of the positive growth in synthetic greenhouse gas (SGHG) radiative forcing. We infer recent SGHG emissions and examine the impact of future emissions scenarios, with a particular focus on proposals to reduce HFC use under the Montreal Protocol. If these proposals are implemented, overall SGHG radiative forcing could peak at around 355mWm(-2) in 2020, before declining by approximately 26% by 2050, despite continued growth of fully fluorinated greenhouse gas emissions. Compared to no HFC policy projections, this amounts to a reduction in radiative forcing of between 50 and 240mWm(-2) by 2050 or a cumulative emissions saving equivalent to 0.5 to 2.8years of CO2 emissions at current levels. However, more complete reporting of global HFC emissions is required, as less than half of global emissions are currently accounted for.

Arnold, T, Ivy DJ, Harth CM, Vollmer MK, Muhle J, Salameh PK, Steele LP, Krummel PB, Wang RHJ, Young D, Lunder CR, Hermansen O, Rhee TS, Kim J, Reimann S, O'Doherty S, Fraser PJ, Simmonds PG, Prinn RG, Weiss RF.  2014.  HFC-43-10mee atmospheric abundances and global emission estimates. Geophysical Research Letters. 41:2228-2235.   10.1002/2013gl059143   AbstractWebsite

We report in situ atmospheric measurements of hydrofluorocarbon HFC-43-10mee (C5H2F10; 1,1,1,2,2,3,4,5,5,5-decafluoropentane) from seven observatories at various latitudes, together with measurements of archived air samples and recent Antarctic flask air samples. The global mean tropospheric abundance was 0.210.05ppt (parts per trillion, dry air mole fraction) in 2012, rising from 0.040.03ppt in 2000. We combine the measurements with a model and an inverse method to estimate rising global emissionsfrom 0.430.34Ggyr(-1) in 2000 to 1.130.31Ggyr(-1) in 2012 (similar to 1.9TgCO(2)-eqyr(-1) based on a 100year global warming potential of 1660). HFC-43-10meea cleaning solvent used in the electronics industryis currently a minor contributor to global radiative forcing relative to total HFCs; however, our calculated emissions highlight a significant difference from the available reported figures and projected estimates.

2013
Welp, LR, Keeling RF, Weiss RF, Paplawsky W, Heckman S.  2013.  Design and performance of a Nafion dryer for continuous operation at CO2 and CH4 air monitoring sites. Atmos. Meas. Tech.. 6:1217-1226.: Copernicus Publications   10.5194/amt-6-1217-2013   AbstractWebsite

In preparation for routine deployment in a network of greenhouse gas monitoring stations, we have designed and tested a simple method for drying ambient air to near or below 0.2% (2000 ppm) mole fraction H2O using a Nafion dryer. The inlet system was designed for use with cavity ring-down spectrometer (CRDS) analyzers such as the Picarro model G2301 that measure H2O in addition to their principal analytes, in this case CO2 and CH4. These analyzers report dry-gas mixing ratios without drying the sample by measuring H2O mixing ratio at the same frequency as the main analytes, and then correcting for the dilution and peak broadening effects of H2O on the mixing ratios of the other analytes measured in moist air. However, it is difficult to accurately validate the water vapor correction in the field. By substantially lowering the amount of H2O in the sample, uncertainties in the applied water vapor corrections can be reduced by an order of magnitude or more, thus eliminating the need to determine instrument-specific water vapor correction coefficients and to verify the stability over time. Our Nafion drying inlet system takes advantage of the extra capacity of the analyzer pump to redirect 30% of the dry gas exiting the Nafion to the outer shell side of the dryer and has no consumables. We tested the Nafion dryer against a cryotrap (−97 °C) method for removing H2O and found that in wet-air tests, the Nafion reduces the CO2 dry-gas mixing ratios of the sample gas by as much as 0.1 ± 0.01 ppm due to leakage across the membrane. The effect on CH4 was smaller and varied within ± 0.2 ppb, with an approximate uncertainty of 0.1 ppb. The Nafion-induced CO2 bias is partially offset by sending the dry reference gases through the Nafion dryer as well. The residual bias due to the impact of moisture differences between sample and reference gas on the permeation through the Nafion was approximately −0.05 ppm for CO2 and varied within ± 0.2 ppb for CH4. The uncertainty of this partial drying method is within the WMO compatibility guidelines for the Northern Hemisphere, 0.1 ppm for CO2 and 2 ppb for CH4, and is comparable to experimentally determining water vapor corrections for each instrument but less subject to concerns of possible drift in these corrections.

Arnold, T, Harth CM, Mühle J, Manning AJ, Salameh PK, Kim J, Ivy DJ, Steele PL, Petrenko VV, Severinghaus JP, Baggenstos D, Weiss RF.  2013.  Nitrogen trifluoride global emissions estimated from updated atmospheric measurements. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.   10.1073/pnas.1212346110   AbstractWebsite

Nitrogen trifluoride (NF3) has potential to make a growing contribution to the Earth’s radiative budget; however, our understanding of its atmospheric burden and emission rates has been limited. Based on a revision of our previous calibration and using an expanded set of atmospheric measurements together with an atmospheric model and inverse method, we estimate that the global emissions of NF3 in 2011 were 1.18 ± 0.21 Gg⋅y−1, or ∼20 Tg CO2-eq⋅y−1 (carbon dioxide equivalent emissions based on a 100-y global warming potential of 16,600 for NF3). The 2011 global mean tropospheric dry air mole fraction was 0.86 ± 0.04 parts per trillion, resulting from an average emissions growth rate of 0.09 Gg⋅y−2 over the prior decade. In terms of CO2 equivalents, current NF3 emissions represent between 17% and 36% of the emissions of other long-lived fluorinated compounds from electronics manufacture. We also estimate that the emissions benefit of using NF3 over hexafluoroethane (C2F6) in electronics manufacture is significant—emissions of between 53 and 220 Tg CO2-eq⋅y−1 were avoided during 2011. Despite these savings, total NF3 emissions, currently ∼10% of production, are still significantly larger than expected assuming global implementation of ideal industrial practices. As such, there is a continuing need for improvements in NF3 emissions reduction strategies to keep pace with its increasing use and to slow its rising contribution to anthropogenic climate forcing.

Petrenko, VV, Severinghaus JP, Smith AM, Riedel K, Baggenstos D, Harth C, Orsi A, Hua Q, Franz P, Takeshita Y, Brailsford GW, Weiss RF, Buizert C, Dickson A, Schaefer H.  2013.  High-precision 14C measurements demonstrate production of in situ cosmogenic 14CH4 and rapid loss of in situ cosmogenic 14CO in shallow Greenland firn. Earth and Planetary Science Letters. 365:190-197.   10.1016/j.epsl.2013.01.032   AbstractWebsite

Measurements of radiocarbon (C-14) in carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and carbon monoxide (CO) from glacial ice are potentially useful for absolute dating of ice cores, studies of the past atmospheric CH4 budget and for reconstructing the past cosmic ray flux and solar activity. Interpretation of C-14 signals in ice is complicated by the fact that the two major C-14 components-trapped atmospheric and in situ cosmogenic-are present in a combined form, as well as by a very limited understanding of the in situ component. This study measured (CH4)-C-14 and (CO)-C-14 content in glacial firn with unprecedented precision to advance understanding of the in situ C-14 component. (CH4)-C-14 and (CO)-C-14 were melt-extracted on site at Summit, Greenland from three very large (similar to 1000 kg each) replicate samples of firn that spanned a depth range of 3.6-5.6 m. Non-cosmogenic C-14 contributions were carefully characterized through simulated extractions and a suite of supporting measurements. In situ cosmogenic (CO)-C-14 was quantified to better than +/- 0.6 molecules g(-1) ice, improving on the precision of the best prior ice (CO)-C-14 measurements by an order of magnitude. The (CO)-C-14 measurements indicate that most (>99%) of the in situ cosmogenic C-14 is rapidly lost from shallow Summit firn to the atmosphere. Despite this rapid C-14 loss, our measurements successfully quantified (CH4)-C-14 in the retained fraction of cosmogenic C-14 (to +/- 0.01 molecules g(-1) ice or better), and demonstrate for the first time that a significant amount of (CH4)-C-14 is produced by cosmic rays in natural ice. This conclusion increases the confidence in the results of an earlier study that used measurements of (CH4)-C-14 in glacial ice to show that wetlands were the likely main driver of the large and rapid atmospheric CH4 increase approximately 1 1.6 kyr ago. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Simmonds, PG, Manning AJ, Athanassiadou M, Scaife AA, Derwent RG, O'Doherty S, Harth CM, Weiss RF, Dutton GS, Hall BD, Sweeney C, Elkins JW.  2013.  Interannual fluctuations in the seasonal cycle of nitrous oxide and chlorofluorocarbons due to the Brewer-Dobson circulation. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres. 118:10694-10706.   10.1002/jgrd.50832   AbstractWebsite

The tropospheric seasonal cycles of N2O, CFC-11 (CCl3F), and CFC-12 (CCl2F2) are influenced by atmospheric dynamics. The interannually varying summertime minima in mole fractions of these trace gases have been attributed to interannual variations in mixing of stratospheric air (depleted in CFCs and N2O) with tropospheric air with a few months lag. The amount of wave activity that drives the stratospheric circulation and influences the winter stratospheric jet and subsequent mass transport across the tropopause appears to be the primary cause of this interannual variability. We relate the observed seasonal minima of species at three Northern Hemisphere sites (Mace Head, Ireland; Trinidad Head, U.S.; and Barrow, Alaska) with the behavior of the winter stratospheric jet. As a result, a good correlation is obtained between zonal winds in winter at 10 hPa, 58°N–68°N, and the detrended seasonal minima in the stratosphere-influenced tracers. For these three tracers, individual Pearson correlation coefficients (r) between 0.51 and 0.71 were found, with overall correlations of between 0.67 and 0.77 when “composite species” were considered. Finally, we note that the long-term observations of CFCs and N2O in the troposphere provide an independent monitoring method complementary to satellite data. Furthermore, they could provide a useful observational measure of the strength of stratosphere-troposphere exchange and, thus, could be used to monitor any long-term trend in the Brewer-Dobson circulation which is predicted by climate models to increase over the coming decades.

Ganesan, AL, Chatterjee A, Prinn RG, Harth CM, Salameh PK, Manning AJ, Hall BD, Mühle J, Meredith LK, Weiss RF, O'Doherty S, Young D.  2013.  The variability of methane, nitrous oxide and sulfur hexafluoride in Northeast India. Atmos. Chem. Phys.. 13:10633-10644.: Copernicus Publications   10.5194/acp-13-10633-2013   AbstractWebsite

High-frequency atmospheric measurements of methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) from Darjeeling, India are presented from December 2011 (CH4)/March 2012 (N2O and SF6) through February 2013. These measurements were made on a gas chromatograph equipped with a flame ionization detector and electron capture detector, and were calibrated on the Tohoku University, the Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO)-98 and SIO-2005 scales for CH4, N2O and SF6, respectively. The observations show large variability and frequent pollution events in CH4 and N2O mole fractions, suggesting significant sources in the regions sampled by Darjeeling throughout the year. By contrast, SF6 mole fractions show little variability and only occasional pollution episodes, likely due to weak sources in the region. Simulations using the Numerical Atmospheric dispersion Modelling Environment (NAME) particle dispersion model suggest that many of the enhancements in the three gases result from the transport of pollutants from the densely populated Indo-Gangetic Plains of India to Darjeeling. The meteorology of the region varies considerably throughout the year from Himalayan flows in the winter to the strong south Asian summer monsoon. The model is consistent in simulating a diurnal cycle in CH4 and N2O mole fractions that is present during the winter but absent in the summer and suggests that the signals measured at Darjeeling are dominated by large-scale (~100 km) flows rather than local (<10 km) flows.

Kirschke, S, Bousquet P, Ciais P, Saunois M, Canadell JG, Dlugokencky EJ, Bergamaschi P, Bergmann D, Blake DR, Bruhwiler L, Cameron-Smith P, Castaldi S, Chevallier F, Feng L, Fraser A, Heimann M, Hodson EL, Houweling S, Josse B, Fraser PJ, Krummel PB, Lamarque JF, Langenfelds RL, Le Quere C, Naik V, O'Doherty S, Palmer PI, Pison I, Plummer D, Poulter B, Prinn RG, Rigby M, Ringeval B, Santini M, Schmidt M, Shindell DT, Simpson IJ, Spahni R, Steele LP, Strode SA, Sudo K, Szopa S, van der Werf GR, Voulgarakis A, van Weele M, Weiss RF, Williams JE, Zeng G.  2013.  Three decades of global methane sources and sinks. Nature Geoscience. 6:813-823.   10.1038/ngeo1955   AbstractWebsite

Methane is an important greenhouse gas, responsible for about 20% of the warming induced by long-lived greenhouse gases since pre-industrial times. By reacting with hydroxyl radicals, methane reduces the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere and generates ozone in the troposphere. Although most sources and sinks of methane have been identified, their relative contributions to atmospheric methane levels are highly uncertain. As such, the factors responsible for the observed stabilization of atmospheric methane levels in the early 2000s, and the renewed rise after 2006, remain unclear. Here, we construct decadal budgets for methane sources and sinks between 1980 and 2010, using a combination of atmospheric measurements and results from chemical transport models, ecosystem models, climate chemistry models and inventories of anthropogenic emissions. The resultant budgets suggest that data-driven approaches and ecosystem models overestimate total natural emissions. We build three contrasting emission scenarios - which differ in fossil fuel and microbial emissions - to explain the decadal variability in atmospheric methane levels detected, here and in previous studies, since 1985. Although uncertainties in emission trends do not allow definitive conclusions to be drawn, we show that the observed stabilization of methane levels between 1999 and 2006 can potentially be explained by decreasing-to-stable fossil fuel emissions, combined with stable-to-increasing microbial emissions. We show that a rise in natural wetland emissions and fossil fuel emissions probably accounts for the renewed increase in global methane levels after 2006, although the relative contribution of these two sources remains uncertain.

Rigby, M, Prinn RG, O'Doherty S, Montzka SA, McCulloch A, Harth CM, Muhle J, Salameh PK, Weiss RF, Young D, Simmonds PG, Hall BD, Dutton GS, Nance D, Mondeel DJ, Elkins JW, Krummel PB, Steele LP, Fraser PJ.  2013.  Re-evaluation of the lifetimes of the major CFCs and CH3CCl3 using atmospheric trends. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. 13:2691-2702.   10.5194/acp-13-2691-2013   AbstractWebsite

Since the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer and its amendments came into effect, growth rates of the major ozone depleting substances (ODS), particularly CFC-11, -12 and -113 and CH3CCl3, have declined markedly, paving the way for global stratospheric ozone recovery. Emissions have now fallen to relatively low levels, therefore the rate at which this recovery occurs will depend largely on the atmospheric lifetime of these compounds. The first ODS measurements began in the early 1970s along with the first lifetime estimates calculated by considering their atmospheric trends. We now have global mole fraction records spanning multiple decades, prompting this lifetime re-evaluation. Using surface measurements from the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Global Monitoring Division (NOAA GMD) from 1978 to 2011, we estimated the lifetime of CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-113 and CH3CCl3 usin!

2012
Arnold, T, Muhle J, Salameh PK, Harth CM, Ivy DJ, Weiss RF.  2012.  Automated measurement of nitrogen trifluoride in ambient air. Analytical Chemistry. 84:4798-4804.   10.1021/ac300373e   AbstractWebsite

We present an analytical method for the in situ measurement of atmospheric nitrogen trifluoride (NF3), an anthropogenic gas with a 100-year global warming potential of over 16 000. This potent greenhouse gas has a rising atmospheric abundance due to its emission from a growing number of manufacturing processes and an expanding end-use market. Here we present a modified version of the "Medusa" preconcentration gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS) system of Miller, B. R.; Weiss, R. F.; Salameh, P. K.; Tanhua, T.; Greally, B. R; Male, J.; Simmonds, P. G. Anal. Chem. 2008, 80 (5), 1536-1545. By altering the techniques of gas separation and chromatography after initial preconcentration, we are now able to make atmospheric measurements of NF3 with relative precision <2% (1 sigma) for current background clean air samples. Importantly, this method augments the currently operational Medusa system, so that the quality of data for species already being measured is not compromised and NF3 is measured from the same preconcentrated sample. We present the first in situ measurements of NF3 from La Jolla, California made 11 times daily, illustrating how global deployment of this technique within the AGAGE (Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment) network could facilitate estimation of global and regional NF3 emissions over the coming years.

Ivy, DJ, Arnold T, Harth CM, Steele LP, Muhle J, Rigby M, Salameh PK, Leist M, Krummel PB, Fraser PJ, Weiss RF, Prinn RG.  2012.  Atmospheric histories and growth trends of C4F10, C5F12, C6F14, C7F16 and C8F18. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. 12:4313-4325.   10.5194/acp-12-4313-2012   AbstractWebsite

Atmospheric observations and trends are presented for the high molecular weight perfluorocarbons (PFCs): decafluorobutane (C4F10), dodecafluoropentane (C5F12), tetradecafluorohexane (C6F14), hexadecafluoroheptane (C7F16) and octadecafluorooctane (C8F18). Their atmospheric histories are based on measurements of 36 Northern Hemisphere and 46 Southern Hemisphere archived air samples collected between 1973 to 2011 using the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) 'Medusa' preconcentration gas chromatography-mass spectrometry systems. A new calibration scale was prepared for each PFC, with estimated accuracies of 6.8% for C4F10, 7.8% for C5F12, 4.0% for C6F14, 6.6% for C7F16 and 7.9% for C8F18. Based on our observations the 2011 globally averaged dry air mole fractions of these heavy PFCs are: 0.17 parts-per-trillion (ppt, i.e., parts per 10(12)) for C4F10, 0.12 ppt for C5F12, 0.27 ppt for C6F14, 0.12 ppt for C7F16 and 0.09 ppt for C8F18. These atmospheric mole fractions combine to contribute to a global average radiative forcing of 0.35 mW m(-2), which is 6% of the total anthropogenic PFC radiative forcing (Montzka and Reimann, 2011; Oram et al., 2012). The growth rates of the heavy perfluorocarbons were largest in the late 1990s peaking at 6.2 parts per quadrillion (ppq, i.e., parts per 10(15)) per year (yr) for C4F10, at 5.0 ppq yr(-1) for C5F12 and 16.6 ppq yr(-1) for C6F14 and in the early 1990s for C7F16 at 4.7 ppq yr(-1) and in the mid 1990s for C8F18 at 4.8 ppq yr(-1). The 2011 globally averaged mean atmospheric growth rates of these PFCs are subsequently lower at 2.2 ppq yr(-1) for C4F10, 1.4 ppq yr(-1) for C5F12, 5.0 ppq yr(-1) for C6F14, 3.4 ppq yr(-1) for C7F16 and 0.9 ppq yr(-1) for C8F18. The more recent slowdown in the growth rates suggests that emissions are declining as compared to the 1980s and 1990s.

Saikawa, E, Rigby M, Prinn RG, Montzka SA, Miller BR, Kuijpers LJM, Fraser PJB, Vollmer MK, Saito T, Yokouchi Y, Harth CM, Muhle J, Weiss RF, Salameh PK, Kim J, Li S, Park S, Kim KR, Young D, O'Doherty S, Simmonds PG, McCulloch A, Krummel PB, Steele LP, Lunder C, Hermansen O, Maione M, Arduini J, Yao B, Zhou LX, Wang HJ, Elkins JW, Hall B.  2012.  Global and regional emission estimates for HCFC-22. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. 12:10033-10050.   10.5194/acp-12-10033-2012   AbstractWebsite

HCFC-22 (CHClF2, chlorodifluoromethane) is an ozone-depleting substance (ODS) as well as a significant greenhouse gas (GHG). HCFC-22 has been used widely as a refrigerant fluid in cooling and air-conditioning equipment since the 1960s, and it has also served as a traditional substitute for some chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) controlled under the Montreal Protocol. A low frequency record on tropospheric HCFC-22 since the late 1970s is available from measurements of the Southern Hemisphere Cape Grim Air Archive (CGAA) and a few Northern Hemisphere air samples (mostly from Trinidad Head) using the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) instrumentation and calibrations. Since the 1990s high-frequency, high-precision, in situ HCFC-22 measurements have been collected at these AGAGE stations. Since 1992, the Global Monitoring Division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA/ESRL) has also collected flasks on a weekly basis from remote sites across the globe and analyzed them for a suite of halocarbons including HCFC-22. Additionally, since 2006 flasks have been collected approximately daily at a number of tower sites across the US and analyzed for halocarbons and other gases at NOAA. All results show an increase in the atmospheric mole fractions of HCFC-22, and recent data show a growth rate of approximately 4% per year, resulting in an increase in the background atmospheric mole fraction by a factor of 1.7 from 1995 to 2009. Using data on HCFC-22 consumption submitted to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), as well as existing bottom-up emission estimates, we first create globally-gridded a priori HCFC-22 emissions over the 15 yr since 1995. We then use the three-dimensional chemical transport model, Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers version 4 (MOZART v4), and a Bayesian inverse method to estimate global as well as regional annual emissions. Our inversion indicates that the global HCFC-22 emissions have an increasing trend between 1995 and 2009. We further find a surge in HCFC-22 emissions between 2005 and 2009 from developing countries in Asia - the largest emitting region including China and India. Globally, substantial emissions continue despite production and consumption being phased out in developed countries currently.

2011
Li, S, Kim J, Kim KR, Muhle J, Kim SK, Park MK, Stohl A, Kang DJ, Arnold T, Harth CM, Salameh PK, Weiss RF.  2011.  Emissions of halogenated compounds in East Asia determined from measurements at Jeju Island, Korea. Environmental Science & Technology. 45:5668-5675.   10.1021/es104124k   AbstractWebsite

High-frequency in situ measurements at Gosan (Jeju Island, Korea) during November 2007 to December 2008 have been combined with interspecies correlation analysis to estimate national emissions of halogenated compounds (HCs) in East Asia, including the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), halons, hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), sulfur hexafluoride (SF(6)), and other chlorinated and brominated compounds. Our results suggest that overall China is the dominant emitter of HCs in East Asia, however significant emissions are also found in South Korea, Japan and Taiwan for HFC-134a, HFC-143a, C(2)F(6), SF(6), CH(3)CCl(3), and HFC-365mfc. The combined emissions of CFCs, halon-1211, HCFCs, HFCs, PFCs, and SF(6) from all four countries in 2008 are 25.3, 1.6, 135, 42.6, 3.6, and 2.0 kt/a, respectively. They account for approximately 15%, 26%, 29%, 16%, 32%, and 26.5% of global emissions, respectively. Our results show signs that Japan has successfully phased out CFCs and HCFCs in compliance with the Montreal Protocol (MP), Korea has started transitioning from HCFCs to HFCs, while China still significantly consumes HCFCs. Taiwan, while not directly regulated under the MP, is shown to have adapted the use of HFCs. Combined analysis of emission rates and the interspecies correlation matrix presented in this study proves to be a powerful tool for monitoring and diagnosing changes in consumption of HCs in East Asia.

Vollmer, MK, Miller BR, Rigby M, Reimann S, Muhle J, Krummel PB, O'Doherty S, Kim J, Rhee TS, Weiss RF, Fraser PJ, Simmonds PG, Salameh PK, Harth CM, Wang RHJ, Steele LP, Young D, Lunder CR, Hermansen O, Ivy D, Arnold T, Schmidbauer N, Kim KR, Greally BR, Hill M, Leist M, Wenger A, Prinn RG.  2011.  Atmospheric histories and global emissions of the anthropogenic hydrofluorocarbons HFC-365mfc, HFC-245fa, HFC-227ea, and HFC-236fa. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres. 116   10.1029/2010jd015309   AbstractWebsite

We report on ground-based atmospheric measurements and emission estimates of the four anthropogenic hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) HFC-365mfc (CH(3)CF(2)CH(2)CF(3), 1,1,1,3,3-pentafluorobutane), HFC-245fa (CHF(2)CH(2)CF(3), 1,1,1,3,3-pentafluoropropane), HFC-227ea (CF(3)CHFCF(3), 1,1,1,2,3,3,3-heptafluoropropane), and HFC-236fa (CF(3)CH(2)CF(3), 1,1,1,3,3,3-hexafluoropropane). In situ measurements are from the global monitoring sites of the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE), the System for Observations of Halogenated Greenhouse Gases in Europe (SOGE), and Gosan (South Korea). We include the first halocarbon flask sample measurements from the Antarctic research stations King Sejong and Troll. We also present measurements of archived air samples from both hemispheres back to the 1970s. We use a two-dimensional atmospheric transport model to simulate global atmospheric abundances and to estimate global emissions. HFC-365mfc and HFC-245fa first appeared in the atmosphere only similar to 1 decade ago; they have grown rapidly to globally averaged dry air mole fractions of 0.53 ppt (in parts per trillion, 10(-12)) and 1.1 ppt, respectively, by the end of 2010. In contrast, HFC-227ea first appeared in the global atmosphere in the 1980s and has since grown to similar to 0.58 ppt. We report the first measurements of HFC-236fa in the atmosphere. This long-lived compound was present in the atmosphere at only 0.074 ppt in 2010. All four substances exhibit yearly growth rates of >8% yr(-1) at the end of 2010. We find rapidly increasing emissions for the foam-blowing compounds HFC-365mfc and HFC-245fa starting in similar to 2002. After peaking in 2006 (HFC-365mfc: 3.2 kt yr(-1), HFC-245fa: 6.5 kt yr(-1)), emissions began to decline. Our results for these two compounds suggest that recent estimates from long-term projections (to the late 21st century) have strongly overestimated emissions for the early years of the projections (similar to 2005-2010). Global HFC-227ea and HFC-236fa emissions have grown to average values of 2.4 kt yr(-1) and 0.18 kt y(r-)1 over the 2008-2010 period, respectively.

Nevison, CD, Dlugokencky E, Dutton G, Elkins JW, Fraser P, Hall B, Krummel PB, Langenfelds RL, O'Doherty S, Prinn RG, Steele LP, Weiss RF.  2011.  Exploring causes of interannual variability in the seasonal cycles of tropospheric nitrous oxide. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. 11:3713-3730.   10.5194/acp-11-3713-2011   AbstractWebsite

Seasonal cycles in the mixing ratios of tropospheric nitrous oxide (N(2)O) are derived by detrending long-term measurements made at sites across four global surface monitoring networks. The detrended monthly data display large interannual variability, which at some sites challenges the concept of a "mean" seasonal cycle. In the Northern Hemisphere, correlations between polar winter lower stratospheric temperature and detrended N(2)O data, around the month of the seasonal minimum, provide empirical evidence for a stratospheric influence, which varies in strength from year to year and can explain much of the interannual variability in the surface seasonal cycle. Even at sites where a strong, competing, regional N(2)O source exists, such as from coastal upwelling at Trinidad Head, California, the stratospheric influence must be understood to interpret the biogeochemical signal in monthly mean data. In the Southern Hemisphere, detrended surface N(2)O monthly means are correlated with polar spring lower stratospheric temperature in months preceding the N(2)O minimum, providing empirical evidence for a coherent stratospheric influence in that hemisphere as well, in contrast to some recent atmospheric chemical transport model (ACTM) results. Correlations between the phasing of the surface N(2)O seasonal cycle in both hemispheres and both polar lower stratospheric temperature and polar vortex break-up date provide additional support for a stratospheric influence. The correlations discussed above are generally more evident in high-frequency in situ data than in data from weekly flask samples. Furthermore, the interannual variability in the N(2)O seasonal cycle is not always correlated among in situ and flask networks that share common sites, nor do the mean seasonal amplitudes always agree. The importance of abiotic influences such as the stratospheric influx and tropospheric transport on N(2)O seasonal cycles suggests that, at sites remote from local sources, surface N(2)O mixing ratio data by themselves are unlikely to provide information about seasonality in surface sources, e. g., for atmospheric inversions, unless the ACTMs employed in the inversions accurately account for these influences. An additional abioitc influence is the seasonal ingassing and outgassing of cooling and warming surface waters, which creates a thermal signal in tropospheric N(2)O that is of particular importance in the extratropical Southern Hemisphere, where it competes with the biological ocean source signal.

2010
Petrenko, VV, Etheridge DM, Weiss RF, Brook EJ, Schaefer H, Severinghaus JP, Smith AM, Lowe D, Hua QA, Riedel K.  2010.  Methane from the East Siberian Arctic Shelf. Science. 329:1146-1147.   10.1126/science.329.5996.1146-b   AbstractWebsite

In their Report “Extensive methane venting to the atmosphere from sediments of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf” (5 March, p. 1246), N. Shakhova et al. write that methane (CH4) release resulting from thawing Arctic permafrost “is a likely positive feedback to climate warming.” They add that the release of Arctic CH4 was implied in previous climate shifts as well as in the recently renewed rise in atmospheric CH4. These claims are not supported by all the literature they cite. Their reference 5 (1) presents measurements of emissions only of carbon dioxide, not CH4. Their reference 8 (2), a study we conducted, suggests that a very large (∼50%) increase in atmospheric CH4 concentration associated with an abrupt warming event ∼11,600 years ago was driven mainly by wetlands, without distinguishing between high and low latitudes. Their reference 9 (3) was published in 1993 and is not relevant to the renewed growth of atmospheric CH4 that started in 2007. Their reference 10 (4) does not imply Arctic CH4 releases in this renewed growth, and other recent work (5) also does not support sustained new emissions from the Arctic as the cause.