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Flick, RE, Knuuti K, Gill SK.  2013.  Matching Mean Sea Level Rise Projections to Local Elevation Datums. Journal of Waterway Port Coastal and Ocean Engineering-Asce. 139:142-146.   10.1061/(asce)ww.1943-5460.0000145   AbstractWebsite

A method is presented to consistently tie future mean sea level rise (MSLR) scenario projections to local geodetic and tidal datums. This extends the U. S. Army Corps of Engineer (USACE) guidance for incorporating the effects of future MSLR into coastal projects. While USACE relies on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) 19-year National Tidal Datum Epoch (NTDE) for its datum relationships, the approach proposed herein generalizes this guidance by choosing the appropriate 19-year epoch centered on the start year of the MSLR scenario under consideration. The procedure takes into account the local annual sea level variability, which confounds the matching to any given single year while generalizing and preserving the 19-year averaging long used by NOAA to calculate the NTDE. Examples of the MSLR scenario matching procedure are given using actual data and projections for La Jolla, California, and Sewells Point (Hampton Roads), Virginia. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WW.1943-5460.0000145. (C) 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Graham, NE, Cayan DR, Bromirski PD, Flick RE.  2013.  Multi-model projections of twenty-first century North Pacific winter wave climate under the IPCC A2 scenario. Climate Dynamics. 40:1335-1360.   10.1007/s00382-012-1435-8   AbstractWebsite

A dynamical wave model implemented over the North Pacific Ocean was forced with winds from three coupled global climate models (CGCMs) run under a medium-to-high scenario for greenhouse gas emissions through the twenty-first century. The results are analyzed with respect to changes in upper quantiles of significant wave height (90th and 99th percentile H-S) during boreal winter. The three CGCMs produce surprisingly similar patterns of change in winter wave climate during the century, with waves becoming 10-15 % smaller over the lower mid-latitudes of the North Pacific, particularly in the central and western ocean. These decreases are closely associated with decreasing windspeeds along the southern flank of the main core of the westerlies. At higher latitudes, 99th percentile wave heights generally increase, though the patterns of change are less uniform than at lower latitudes. The increased wave heights at high latitudes appear to be due a variety of wind-related factors including both increased windspeeds and changes in the structure of the wind field, these varying from model to model. For one of the CGCMs, a commonly used statistical approach for estimating seasonal quantiles of H-S on the basis of seasonal mean sea level pressure (SLP) is used to develop a regression model from 60 years of twentieth century data as a training set, and then applied using twenty-first century SLP data. The statistical model reproduces the general pattern of decreasing twenty-first century wave heights south of similar to 40 N, but underestimates the magnitude of the changes by similar to 50-70 %, reflecting relatively weak coupling between sea level pressure and wave heights in the CGCM data and loss of variability in the statistically projected wave heights.