Publications

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2019
Flick, RE, Bromirski PD.  2019.  Ham Radio from McMurdo Station and Yesterday Camp, Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica. QST Journal of the American Radio Relay League. 103(2):65-67.
2018
Young, AP, Flick RE, Gallien TW, Giddings SN, Guza RT, Harvey M, Lenain L, Ludka BC, Melville WK, O'Reilly WC.  2018.  Southern California coastal response to the 2015-2016 El Niño. Journal of Geophysical Research Earth Surface. 123   10.1029/2018JF004771  
2017
Bromirski, PD, Flick RE, Miller AJ.  2017.  Storm surge along the Pacific coast of North America. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans. 122:441-457.   10.1002/2016jc012178   AbstractWebsite

Storm surge is an important factor that contributes to coastal flooding and erosion. Storm surge magnitude along eastern North Pacific coasts results primarily from low sea level pressure (SLP). Thus, coastal regions where high surge occurs identify the dominant locations where intense storms make landfall, controlled by storm track across the North Pacific. Here storm surge variability along the Pacific coast of North America is characterized by positive nontide residuals at a network of tide gauge stations from southern California to Alaska. The magnitudes of mean and extreme storm surge generally increase from south to north, with typically high amplitude surge north of Cape Mendocino and lower surge to the south. Correlation of mode 1 nontide principal component (PC1) during winter months (December-February) with anomalous SLP over the northeast Pacific indicates that the dominant storm landfall region is along the Cascadia/British Columbia coast. Although empirical orthogonal function spatial patterns show substantial interannual variability, similar correlation patterns of nontide PC1 over the 1948-1975 and 1983-2014 epochs with anomalous SLP suggest that, when considering decadal-scale time periods, storm surge and associated tracks have generally not changed appreciably since 1948. Nontide PC1 is well correlated with PC1 of both anomalous SLP and modeled wave height near the tide gauge stations, reflecting the interrelationship between storms, surge, and waves. Weaker surge south of Cape Mendocino during the 2015-2016 El Nino compared with 1982-1983 may result from changes in Hadley circulation. Importantly from a coastal impacts perspective, extreme storm surge events are often accompanied by high waves.

2016
Young, AP, Guza RT, O'Reilly WC, Burvingt O, Flick RE.  2016.  Observations of coastal cliff base waves, sand levels, and cliff top shaking. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms. 41:1564-1573.   10.1002/esp.3928   AbstractWebsite

Concurrent observations of waves at the base of a southern California coastal cliff and seismic cliff motion were used to explore wave-cliff interaction and test proxies for wave forcing on coastal cliffs. Time series of waves and sand levels at the cliff base were extracted from pressure sensor observations programmatically and used to compute various wave impact metrics (e.g. significant cliff base wave height). Wave-cliff interaction was controlled by tide, incident waves, and beach sand levels, and varied from low tides with no wave-cliff impacts, to high tides with continuous wave-cliff interaction. Observed cliff base wave heights differed from standard Normal and Rayleigh distributions. Cliff base wave spectra levels were elevated at sea swell and infragravity frequencies. Coastal cliff top response to wave impacts was characterized using microseismic shaking in a frequency band (20-45Hz) sensitive to wave breaking and cliff impacts. Response in the 20-45Hz band was well correlated with wave-cliff impact metrics including cliff base significant wave height and hourly maximum water depth at the cliff base (r(2) = 0.75). With site-specific calibration relating wave impacts and shaking, and acceptable anthropogenic (traffic) noise levels, cliff top seismic observations are a viable proxy for cliff base wave conditions. The methods presented here are applicable to other coastal settings and can provide coastal managers with real time coastal conditions. Copyright (C) 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

2015
Kochnower, D, Reddy SMW, Flick RE.  2015.  Factors influencing local decisions to use habitats to protect coastal communities from hazards. Ocean & Coastal Management. 116:277-290.   10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2015.07.021   AbstractWebsite

Coastal hazard mitigation policy in the US has historically focused on construction of hardened, or gray, infrastructure. Recently, there is increased public interest and policy supporting the use of habitats, or natural infrastructure (NI), following decades of increasingly supportive ecological, engineering, and economic evidence. This trend suggests that behavioral and institutional factors may also be important for mainstreaming NI. To understand what factors affected decisions to use NI, we conducted semi-structured interviews with a total of 16 individuals associated with three NI cases: Ferry Point Park Living Shoreline, Maryland (MD); Surfer's Point Managed Retreat, California (CA); and Durant's Point Living Shoreline, North Carolina (NC). Our grounded theory analysis of the interview transcripts revealed four common themes across the decisions: 1) perception of benefits (N = 45) and costs (N = 31), 2) diffusion of innovation led by innovators (N = 34), 3) local champions (N = 46), and 4) social networks and norms (N = 30). This grounded theory suggests that the decisions to use NI were driven by innovators (citizens, local non-governmental organization (NGO) staff, and/or state government resource managers) who were influenced by seeing NI successes implemented by trusted experts and perceived NI benefits beyond protecting coastlines (e.g., maintaining coastal heritage and sense of place). Innovators also acted as local champions, getting others "comfortable" with NI and connecting to local interests. In addition, our analysis shows the role of regulatory permitting requirements in perpetuating or controlling biases against innovations like NI. In 2008, MD passed a policy that helped address biases against NI by changing NI from a preferred option to the required option except in places where scientific analysis suggested that gray infrastructure would be needed, while in CA and NC gray infrastructure remains only a preferred option. These results suggest an opportunity to harness heuristics, such as visual demonstrations and messaging from trusted persons, in addition to policy tools to mainstream NI in places where there is evidence that it would be effective. These results also suggest that heuristics could result in biases that not only lead to underuse but also to inappropriate use of NI; and, policies, similar to the policy in Maryland, are needed to control these biases. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

Rasmussen, L, Bromirski PD, Miller AJ, Arcas D, Flick RE, Hendershott MC.  2015.  Source location impact on relative tsunami strength along the US West Coast. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans. 120:4945-4961.   10.1002/2015jc010718   AbstractWebsite

Tsunami propagation simulations are used to identify which tsunami source locations would produce the highest amplitude waves on approach to key population centers along the U.S. West Coast. The reasons for preferential influence of certain remote excitation sites are explored by examining model time sequences of tsunami wave patterns emanating from the source. Distant bathymetric features in the West and Central Pacific can redirect tsunami energy into narrow paths with anomalously large wave height that have disproportionate impact on small areas of coastline. The source region generating the waves can be as little as 100 km along a subduction zone, resulting in distinct source-target pairs with sharply amplified wave energy at the target. Tsunami spectral ratios examined for transects near the source, after crossing the West Pacific, and on approach to the coast illustrate how prominent bathymetric features alter wave spectral distributions, and relate to both the timing and magnitude of waves approaching shore. To contextualize the potential impact of tsunamis from high-amplitude source-target pairs, the source characteristics of major historical earthquakes and tsunamis in 1960, 1964, and 2011 are used to generate comparable events originating at the highest-amplitude source locations for each coastal target. This creates a type of ``worst-case scenario,'' a replicate of each region's historically largest earthquake positioned at the fault segment that would produce the most incoming tsunami energy at each target port. An amplification factor provides a measure of how the incoming wave height from the worst-case source compares to the historical event.

Gallien, TW, O'Reilly WC, Flick RE, Guza RT.  2015.  Geometric properties of anthropogenic flood control berms on southern California beaches. Ocean & Coastal Management. 105:35-47.   10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2014.12.014   AbstractWebsite

Coastal flood riskfrom coincident high tides' and energetic waves is concentrated around low-lying urban areas. Municipalities construct temporary sand berms (also known as sacrificial dunes) to manage potential flooding, however the relationships between berm geometry (e.g., height, width and length) and performance are not understood. Concomitant pressures of sea level rise and urbanization will increase active beach berming. Effective future coastal flood risk management will depend upon optimizing berm efficacy relative to geometry, placement, and water levels. Here, 34 individual berms at seven southern California locations are characterized using 18 LiDAR datasets spanning nearly a decade. Three berm classifications emerged based on deployment duration: event, seasonal and persistent. Event berms, deployed to manage specific storms or high water events, are triangular in cross-section, relatively low volume (similar to 4 m(3)/m) and low crest elevation (similar to 5 m NAVD88). Seasonal berms are larger, volumes vary from 6 to 28 m(3)/m, and average crest elevations are between 5.3 and 6.4 m. A persistent berm, captured in all LiDAR data for that area, is the largest (48 m(3)/m), longest (1.2 km), and highest mean crest elevation (7 m NAVD88) of all study berms. Total water levels, estimated using observed tides and a regional wave model coupled with an empirical runup formula, suggest that overtopping is rare. Currently, event berms are vulnerable to wave attack only a few hours per year. However, even with modest sea level rise (similar to 25 cm) or El Nino conditions, exposure increases significantly, and substantial nourishments may be required to maintain current flood protection levels. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

2014
Gallien, TW, Sanders BF, Flick RE.  2014.  Urban coastal flood prediction: Integrating wave overtopping, flood defenses and drainage. Coastal Engineering. 91:18-28.   10.1016/j.coastaleng.2014.04.007   AbstractWebsite

Flood extent field observations collected following a wave overtopping event are used to evaluate the accuracy of two urban flood prediction models: a static ('bathtub') model that simply compares water level to land elevation, and a hydrodynamic model that resolves embayment dynamics, overland flow, concrete flood walls, and drainage into the storm water system. Time-dependent overtopping rates were estimated using empirical models parameterized with survey data and local wave heights transformed to the nearshore using Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN) and subsequently input to the hydrodynamic model. The hydrodynamic model showed good agreement with field observations, whereas the static model substantially overpredicted flooding suggesting that urban backshore flood depths do not equilibrate with shoreline water levels in transient events. In the absence of a high backwater condition, storm system drainage attenuates wave overtopping flooding. Hydrodynamic model simulations suggest that bay side flood defenses may exacerbate flooding by restricting drainage and that temporary flood mitigation berms can significantly reduce backshore flooding. This study points to a promising urban coastal flood prediction and management framework. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Young, AP, Flick RE, O'Reilly WC, Chadwick DB, Crampton WC, Helly JJ.  2014.  Estimating cliff retreat in southern California considering sea level rise using a sand balance approach. Marine Geology. 348:15-26.   10.1016/j.margeo.2013.11.007   AbstractWebsite

A sand balance coastal profile model for estimating cliff and shoreline retreats considering sea level rise is discussed. The model, specifically designed for cliffed coasts fronted by sandy beaches, conditionally permits beach and cliff retreat to occur independently, and includes subaerial cliff erosion and external beach sand sources. The model accommodates complex nearshore and inland topography, high volume beaches, and variable cliff composition, and is suitable where local sand balance is thought to be a primary controller of coastal evolution over decade–century time scales. Designating an upper active beach boundary and beach–cliff intersection divides the coastal profile into active beach and cliff sections separated by a back beach buffer. The buffer acts as a sand reservoir and delays marine driven cliff erosion, resulting in lower estimated cliff retreat compared to previous models neglecting protective beaches. The model was applied on 21 km of cliffs in Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton, California considering sea level rise ranging from 0.5 to 2 m over 100 yrs using 207 profiles, sand budget deficits estimated from historical data, and sand inputs from terrestrial erosion estimated from a time series of lidar data. Modeled mean and maximum scenario cliff retreats ranged from 4–87 m and 21–179 m, respectively, and provide order of magnitude estimates, but are reliant on model assumptions and do not include potential coastal changes unrelated to local sand balance. The results underscore the influence of protective beaches on cliff retreat.

2013
Young, AP, Guza RT, Dickson ME, O'Reilly WC, Flick RE.  2013.  Ground motions on rocky, cliffed, and sandy shorelines generated by ocean waves. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans. 118:6590-6602.   10.1002/2013jc008883   AbstractWebsite

We compare ground motions observed within about 100 m of the waterline on eight sites located on shorelines with different morphologies (rock slope, cliff, and sand beaches). At all sites, local ocean waves generated ground motions in the frequency band 0.01-40 Hz. Between about 0.01 and 0.1 Hz, foreshore loading and gravitational attraction from ocean swell and infragravity waves drive coherent, in-phase ground flexing motions mostly oriented cross-shore that decay inland. At higher frequencies between 0.5 and 40 Hz, breaking ocean waves and wave-rock impacts cause ground shaking. Overall, seismic spectral shapes were generally consistent across shoreline sites and usually within a few orders of magnitude despite the diverse range of settings. However, specific site response varied and was influenced by a combination of tide level, incident wave energy, site morphology, ground composition, and signal decay. Flexing and shaking increased with incident wave energy and was often tidally modulated, consistent with a local generation source. Flexing magnitudes were usually larger than shaking, and flexing displacements of several mm were observed during relatively large incident wave conditions (Hs 4-5 m). Comparison with traffic noise and earthquakes illustrate the relative significance of local ocean-generated signals in coastal seismic data. Seismic observations are not a simple proxy for wave-cliff interaction.

Flick, RE, Knuuti K, Gill SK.  2013.  Matching Mean Sea Level Rise Projections to Local Elevation Datums. Journal of Waterway Port Coastal and Ocean Engineering-Asce. 139:142-146.   10.1061/(asce)ww.1943-5460.0000145   AbstractWebsite

A method is presented to consistently tie future mean sea level rise (MSLR) scenario projections to local geodetic and tidal datums. This extends the U. S. Army Corps of Engineer (USACE) guidance for incorporating the effects of future MSLR into coastal projects. While USACE relies on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) 19-year National Tidal Datum Epoch (NTDE) for its datum relationships, the approach proposed herein generalizes this guidance by choosing the appropriate 19-year epoch centered on the start year of the MSLR scenario under consideration. The procedure takes into account the local annual sea level variability, which confounds the matching to any given single year while generalizing and preserving the 19-year averaging long used by NOAA to calculate the NTDE. Examples of the MSLR scenario matching procedure are given using actual data and projections for La Jolla, California, and Sewells Point (Hampton Roads), Virginia. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WW.1943-5460.0000145. (C) 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Graham, NE, Cayan DR, Bromirski PD, Flick RE.  2013.  Multi-model projections of twenty-first century North Pacific winter wave climate under the IPCC A2 scenario. Climate Dynamics. 40:1335-1360.   10.1007/s00382-012-1435-8   AbstractWebsite

A dynamical wave model implemented over the North Pacific Ocean was forced with winds from three coupled global climate models (CGCMs) run under a medium-to-high scenario for greenhouse gas emissions through the twenty-first century. The results are analyzed with respect to changes in upper quantiles of significant wave height (90th and 99th percentile H-S) during boreal winter. The three CGCMs produce surprisingly similar patterns of change in winter wave climate during the century, with waves becoming 10-15 % smaller over the lower mid-latitudes of the North Pacific, particularly in the central and western ocean. These decreases are closely associated with decreasing windspeeds along the southern flank of the main core of the westerlies. At higher latitudes, 99th percentile wave heights generally increase, though the patterns of change are less uniform than at lower latitudes. The increased wave heights at high latitudes appear to be due a variety of wind-related factors including both increased windspeeds and changes in the structure of the wind field, these varying from model to model. For one of the CGCMs, a commonly used statistical approach for estimating seasonal quantiles of H-S on the basis of seasonal mean sea level pressure (SLP) is used to develop a regression model from 60 years of twentieth century data as a training set, and then applied using twenty-first century SLP data. The statistical model reproduces the general pattern of decreasing twenty-first century wave heights south of similar to 40 N, but underestimates the magnitude of the changes by similar to 50-70 %, reflecting relatively weak coupling between sea level pressure and wave heights in the CGCM data and loss of variability in the statistically projected wave heights.

2012
Young, AP, Guza RT, Adams PN, O'Reilly WC, Flick RE.  2012.  Cross-shore decay of cliff top ground motions driven by local ocean swell and infragravity waves. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans. 117   10.1029/2012jc007908   AbstractWebsite

Ground motions at the frequencies (between 0.01 and 0.1 Hz) of ocean infragravity and swell waves were observed on a cross-shore transect extending landward from the edge of a southern California coastal cliff. Cliff top ground motions are coherent and in phase with water level fluctuations at the cliff base. Vertical ground motions at infragravity and single frequencies decay rapidly with inland distance from the cliff edge (e-folding scale is about 12 m), and at the edge decrease by several orders of magnitude between high tide when waves reach the cliff base, and low tide when the waterline is about 50 m from the cliff base. The observed cross-shore decay scales are qualitatively consistent with gravitational loading and attraction of water waves at tidally modulated distances from the cliff base. At approximately constant distance from the waterline, ground motions vary roughly linearly with nearshore swell wave energy. In contrast to these locally forced ground motions, double frequency band (0.1-0.2 Hz) cliff top vertical ground motions are remotely generated with spatially uniform magnitudes approximately equal to those observed 14 km inland. Near the cliff edge, ground tilt dominates the observed large (relative to vertical) cross-shore acceleration at infragravity frequencies, contributes significantly to cross-shore acceleration at swell frequencies, and is a small fraction of cross-shore acceleration at higher frequencies.

2011
Young, AP, Adams PN, O'Reilly WC, Flick RE, Guza RT.  2011.  Coastal cliff ground motions from local ocean swell and infragravity waves in southern California. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans. 116   10.1029/2011jc007175   AbstractWebsite

Ground motions atop a southern California, USA coastal cliff are compared with water level fluctuations observed at the cliff base, and with ground motions observed 10 km inland. At high tide, cliff top ground motions in three frequency bands were generated locally by ocean waves at the cliff base: (1) high-frequency (>0.3 Hz) "shaking" caused by waves impacting the cliff, and (2) gravitational loading-induced "swaying" at the frequency of the incident sea swell waves (0.05-0.1 Hz), and (3) slow "swaying" at infragravity frequencies (0.006-0.05 Hz). At high tide, at infragravity and incident sea swell wave frequencies, cliff top vertical ground displacement and cliff base water level fluctuations are coherent and oscillate in phase (with occasional deviation at sea swell frequencies), and spectral levels at the cliff top are much higher than at the inland seismometer. In contrast, at "double frequencies" (0.1-0.3 Hz) spectral levels of vertical motions are nearly identical inland and at the cliff top, consistent with a common (distant or spatially distributed) source. At low tide, when ocean waves did not reach the cliff base, power levels of vertical ground motions at the cliff top decreased to inland levels at incident wave frequencies and higher, and only infragravity-band motions were noticeably forced by local ocean waves.

Bromirski, PD, Miller AJ, Flick RE, Auad G.  2011.  Dynamical suppression of sea level rise along the Pacific coast of North America: Indications for imminent acceleration. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans. 116   10.1029/2010jc006759   AbstractWebsite

Long-term changes in global mean sea level (MSL) rise have important practical implications for shoreline and beach erosion, coastal wetlands inundation, storm surge flooding, and coastal development. Altimetry since 1993 indicates that global MSL rise has increased about 50% above the 20th century rise rate, from 2 to 3 mm yr(-1). At the same time, both tide gauge measurements and altimetry indicate virtually no increase along the Pacific coast of North America during the satellite epoch. Here we show that the dynamical steric response of North Pacific eastern boundary ocean circulation to a dramatic change in wind stress curl, tau(xy), which occurred after the mid-1970s regime shift, can account for the suppression of regional sea level rise along this coast since 1980. Alarmingly, mean tau(xy) over the North Pacific recently reached levels not observed since before the mid-1970s regime shift. This change in wind stress patterns may be foreshadowing a Pacific Decadal Oscillation regime shift, causing an associated persistent change in basin-scale tau(xy) that may result in a concomitant resumption of sea level rise along the U.S. West Coast to global or even higher rates.

Young, AP, Guza RT, O'Reilly WC, Flick RE, Gutierrez R.  2011.  Short-term retreat statistics of a slowly eroding coastal cliff. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. 11:205-217.   10.5194/nhess-11-205-2011   AbstractWebsite

The frequency, spatial distribution, and dimensions of coastal cliff retreats, a basic statistic underlying cliff top hazard assessment, are presented for 7.1 km of unprotected and slowly retreating coastal cliffs near Point Loma in San Diego, California, US. Using 8 airborne light detection and ranging (lidar) surveys collected over 5.5 years, 130 individual cliff edge failures (primarily rockfalls, block falls, and topples) were detected. Footprint areas varied from 3 to 268 m(2), maximum landward retreats from 0.8 to 10 m, and alongshore lengths from 2 to 68 m. The failures with the largest landward retreats were also relatively long, and 13% of the slides accounted for 50% of the lost cliff area over the study period. On this short (5.5 years) time scale, "no change" was the most common observation (84% of the cliff edge). Probability distributions of non-zero cliff retreat during each time interval usually had a single peak between 1 and 2.5 m. Intervals with high mean retreat had elevated numbers of failure in all class sizes, and also contained the largest individual retreats. Small and medium slides tended to reoccur preferentially (relative to randomly) near previous small and medium slides, forming short-term hot spots, while large slides were less likely to reoccur near previous large slides. Cumulative distributions of landslide failure parameters (area, mean retreat, maximum retreat, and length) follow an inverse power-law for medium to large size events, similar to previously reported distributions of coastal and inland landsliding.

2010
Young, AP, Raymond JH, Sorenson J, Johnstone EA, Driscoll NW, Flick RE, Guza RT.  2010.  Coarse Sediment Yields from Seacliff Erosion in the Oceanside Littoral Cell. Journal of Coastal Research. 26:580-585.   10.2112/08-1179.1   AbstractWebsite

The coarse sediment fraction of geologic formations exposed in 42 km of southern California seacliffs in the Oceanside Littoral Cell was estimated using more than 400 samples An impulse laser, oblique photographs, and coastal maps were used to define thickness and alongshore extent of the geologic units exposed in the seacliffs The coarse sediment (defined as diameter > 0 06 mm) fraction in each geologic unit was estimated by sieving About 80% of the exposed cliff face is coarse and can contribute to beach building Finer cliff sediments are transported offshore by waves and currents Although there are some differences, the observed 80% coarse fraction is generally consistent with previous estimates based on an order of magnitude fewer samples Coastal development has largely eliminated about 40% of seacliffs in the Oceanside Littoral Cell as potential beach sand sources For the remaining seacliffs, 1 cm of average cliff retreat yields 10,000 m(3) of potential beach-building material

Young, AP, Olsen MJ, Driscoll N, Flick RE, Gutierrez R, Guza RT, Johnstone E, Kuester F.  2010.  Comparison of Airborne and Terrestrial Lidar Estimates of Seacliff Erosion in Southern California. Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing. 76:421-427. AbstractWebsite

Seacliff changes evaluated using both terrestrial and airborne lidar are compared along a 400 m length of coast in Del Mar, California. The many large slides occurring during the rainy, six-month study period (September 2004 to April 2005) were captured by both systems, and the alongshore variation of cliff face volume changes estimated with the airborne and terrestrial systems are strongly correlated (r(2) = 0.95). However, relatively small changes in the cliff face are reliably detected only with the more accurate terrestrial lidar, and the total eroded volume estimated with the terrestrial system was 30 percent larger than the corresponding airborne estimate. Although relatively small cliff changes are not detected, the airborne system can rapidly survey long cliff lengths and provides coverage on the cliff top and beach at the cliff base.

Ewing, L, Flick RE, Synolakis CE.  2010.  A review of coastal community vulnerabilities toward resilience benefits from disaster reduction measures. Environmental Hazards-Human and Policy Dimensions. 9:222-232.   10.3763/ehaz.2010.0050   AbstractWebsite

The coast has always been an area of significant hazards. In situations of community self-sufficiency, consequences of coastal hazards might be isolated to regions directly affected by the hazard. But, in the current global economy, fewer and fewer communities are isolated; damage to one location frequently has consequences around the globe and coastal community resilience can have broad-reaching benefits. Hazard responses for the built coastal environment have typically been resistance: constructing stronger buildings, enhancing natural barriers or creating artificial barriers. These approaches to hazard reduction through coastal engineering and shoreline defence efforts have been crucial to sustained coastal development. However, as coastal forces continue or magnify and resources become scarcer, resistance alone may be less effective or even unsustainable, and interest in resilience has grown. Resilience is a community's ability either to absorb destructive forces without loss of service or function, or to recover quickly from disasters. Community resilience encompasses multiple elements, ranging from governance to structural design, risk knowledge, prevention, warning systems and recovery. This paper focuses on hazards of coastal communities, and provides a review of some recent engineering efforts to improve the resilience elements of risk knowledge and disaster warnings for coastal disaster reduction.

2009
Young, AP, Flick RE, Gutierrez R, Guza RT.  2009.  Comparison of short-term seacliff retreat measurement methods in Del Mar, California. Geomorphology. 112:318-323.   10.1016/j.geomorph.2009.06.018   AbstractWebsite

Seacliff retreat has been variously characterized as the recession rate of the cliff top, of the cliff base, and as the bulk recession rate based on volumetric changes of the entire cliff face. Here, these measures of retreat are compared using nine semi-annual airborne LiDAR (Light Detection And Ranging) surveys of southern California seacliffs. Changes in the cliff base location (where the steeply sloping cliff face intersects the beach) include cliff retreat owing to basal erosion, but also reflect changes in beach sand level and basal talus deposits. Averaged over the 2.5 km alongshore study span, the cliff base actually prograded seaward about 12 cm during the 4-year study. Cliff top change was dominated by few, relatively large (several meters) localized retreats. Cliff face changes, that include failures and deposits anywhere on the cliff profile, had a relatively small mean magnitude compared to cliff top changes and were more widely distributed alongshore. However, the similar alongshore averaged. cumulative cliff top and net bulk cliff face end-point retreat (14 and 19 cm, respectively) suggest that mean cumulative cliff top retreat can potentially be a viable surrogate for mean net cumulative cliff-wide erosion (and vice versa) over relatively short time periods. Cliff face erosion occurred repeatedly at some locations, confirming the presence of seacliff erosion hot-spots during the study period. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Young, AP, Guza RT, Flick RE, O'Reilly WC, Gutierrez R.  2009.  Rain, waves, and short-term evolution of composite seacliffs in southern California. Marine Geology. 267:1-7.   10.1016/j.margeo.2009.08.008   AbstractWebsite

A four-year time series of nine airborne LiDAR surveys were used to assess the roles of wave attack and rainfall on the erosion of 42 km of southern California seacliffs. Nine continuous seacliff sections, separated by coastal lagoon mouths, all show maximum seacliff erosion in the rainiest time period (when wave energy was not particularly elevated), and in most sections the squared correlations between rainfall and erosion time series exceeded 0.8. Although rain and associated subaerial mechanisms such as groundwater seepage triggered most of the observed seacliff failures, wave attack accelerated seacliff erosion, with erosion rates of cliffs exposed to wave attack five times higher than at adjacent cliffs not exposed to waves. The results demonstrate the importance of both waves and rain in the erosion of southern California seacliffs and suggest that the combined influences of marine and subaerial processes accelerate the erosion rate through positive feedbacks. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

2008
Cayan, DR, Bromirski PD, Hayhoe K, Tyree M, Dettinger MD, Flick RE.  2008.  Climate change projections of sea level extremes along the California coast. Climatic Change. 87:S57-S73.   10.1007/s10584-007-9376-7   AbstractWebsite

California's coastal observations and global model projections indicate that California's open coast and estuaries will experience rising sea levels over the next century. During the last several decades, the upward historical trends, quantified from a small set of California tide gages, have been approximately 20 cm/century, quite similar to that estimated for global mean sea level. In the next several decades, warming produced by climate model simulations indicates that sea level rise (SLR) could substantially exceed the rate experienced during modem human development along the California coast and estuaries. A range of future SLR is estimated from a set of climate simulations governed by lower (B1), middle-upper (A2), and higher (A1fi) GHG emission scenarios. Projecting SLR from the ocean warming in GCMs, observational evidence of SLR, and separate calculations using a simple climate model yields a range of potential sea level increases, from 11 to 72 cm, by the 2070-2099 period. The combination of predicted astronomical tides with projected weather forcing, El Nino related variability, and secular SLR, gives a series of hourly sea level projections for 2005-2100. Gradual sea level rise progressively worsens the impacts of high tides, surge and waves resulting from storms, and also freshwater floods from Sierra and coastal mountain catchments. The occurrence of extreme sea levels is pronounced when these factors coincide. The frequency and magnitude of extreme events, relative to current levels, follows a sharply escalating pattern as the magnitude of future sea level rise increases.

Bromirski, PD, Flick RE.  2008.  Storm surge in the San Francisco Bay/Delta and nearby coastal locations. Shore & Beach. 76:29-37. Abstract

California’s San Francisco Bay/Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (bay/delta) estuary system is subject to externally forced storm surge propagating from the open ocean. In the lower reaches of the delta, storm surge dominates water level extremes and can have a significant impact on wetlands, freshwater aquifers, levees, and ecosys- tems. The magnitude and distribution of open-ocean tide generated storm surge throughout the bay/delta are described by a network of stations within the bay/delta system and along the California coast. Correlation of non-tide water levels between stations in the network indicates that peak storm surge fluctuations propagate into the bay/delta system from outside the Golden Gate. The initial peak surge propa- gates from the open ocean inland, while a trailing (smaller amplitude) secondary peak is associated with river discharge. Extreme non-tide water levels are generally associated with extreme Sacramento-San Joaquin river flows, underscoring the po- tential impact of sea level rise on the delta levees and bay/delta ecosystem.

2005
Bromirski, PD, Cayan DR, Flick RE.  2005.  Wave spectral energy variability in the northeast Pacific. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans. 110   10.1029/2004jc002398   AbstractWebsite

The dominant characteristics of wave energy variability in the eastern North Pacific are described from NOAA National Data Buoy Center ( NDBC) buoy data collected from 1981 to 2003. Ten buoys at distributed locations were selected for comparison based on record duration and data continuity. Long- period ( LP) [ T > 12] s, intermediate- period [ 6 <= T <= 12] s, and short- period [ T < 6] s wave spectral energy components are considered separately. Empirical orthogonal function ( EOF) analyses of monthly wave energy anomalies reveal that all three wave energy components exhibit similar patterns of spatial variability. The dominant mode represents coherent heightened ( or diminished) wave energy along the West Coast from Alaska to southern California, as indicated by composites of the 700 hPa height field. The second EOF mode reveals a distinct El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-associated spatial distribution of wave energy, which occurs when the North Pacific storm track is extended unusually far south or has receded to the north. Monthly means and principal components (PCs) of wave energy levels indicate that the 1997 - 1998 El Nino- winter had the highest basin- wide wave energy within this record, substantially higher than the 1982 - 1983 El Nino. An increasing trend in the dominant PC of LP wave energy suggests that storminess has increased in the northeast Pacific since 1980. This trend is emphasized at central eastern North Pacific locations. Patterns of storminess variability are consistent with increasing activity in the central North Pacific as well as the tendency for more extreme waves in the south during El Nino episodes and in the north during La Nina.

2003
Bromirski, PD, Flick RE, Cayan DR.  2003.  Storminess variability along the California coast: 1858-2000. Journal of Climate. 16:982-993.   10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<0982:svatcc>2.0.co;2   AbstractWebsite

The longest available hourly tide gauge record along the West Coast (U. S.) at San Francisco yields meteorologically forced nontide residuals (NTR), providing an estimate of the variation in "storminess'' from 1858 to 2000. Mean monthly positive NTR (associated with low sea level pressure) show no substantial change along the central California coast since 1858 or over the last 50 years. However, in contrast, the highest 2% of extreme winter NTR levels exhibit a significant increasing trend since about 1950. Extreme winter NTR also show pronounced quasi-periodic decadal-scale variability that is relatively consistent over the last 140 years. Atmospheric sea level pressure anomalies (associated with years having high winter NTR) take the form of a distinct, large-scale atmospheric circulation pattern, with intense storminess associated with a broad, southeasterly displaced, deep Aleutian low that directs storm tracks toward the California coast.