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Alley, RB, Marotzke J, Nordhaus WD, Overpeck JT, Peteet DM, Pielke RA, Pierrehumbert RT, Rhines PB, Stocker TF, Talley LD, Wallace JM.  2003.  Abrupt climate change. Science. 299:2005-2010.   10.1126/science.1081056   AbstractWebsite

Large, abrupt, and widespread climate changes with major impacts have occurred repeatedly in the past, when the Earth system was forced across thresholds. Although abrupt climate changes can occur for many reasons, it is conceivable that human forcing of climate change is increasing the probability of large, abrupt events. Were such an event to recur, the economic and ecological impacts could be large and potentially serious. Unpredictability exhibited near climate thresholds in simple models shows that some uncertainty will always be associated with projections. In light of these uncertainties, policy-makers should consider expanding research into abrupt climate change, improving monitoring systems, and taking actions designed to enhance the adaptability and resilience of ecosystems and economies.

on Change, NRCCAC(US).  2002.  Abrupt climate change : inevitable surprises. :xii,230p.., Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press Abstract
Gordon, AL, Ma SB, Olson DB, Hacker P, Ffield A, Talley LD, Wilson D, Baringer M.  1997.  Advection and diffusion of Indonesian throughflow water within the Indian Ocean South Equatorial Current. Geophysical Research Letters. 24:2573-2576.   10.1029/97gl01061   AbstractWebsite

Warm, low salinity Pacific water weaves through the Indonesian Seas into the eastern boundary of the Indian Ocean. The Indonesian Throughflow Water (ITW) adds freshwater into the Indian Ocean as it spreads by the advection and diffusion within the Indian Ocean's South Equatorial Current (SEC). The low salinity throughflow trace, centered along 12 degrees S, stretches across the Indian Ocean, separating the monsoon dominated regime of the northern Indian Ocean from the more typical subtropical stratification to the south. ITW is well represented within the SEC thermocline, extending with concentrations above 80% of initial characteristics from the sea surface to 300-m within the eastern half of the Indian Ocean, with 60% concentration reaching well into the western Indian Ocean. The ITW transport within the SEC varies from 4 to 12 x 10(6) m(3)sec(-1), partly in response to variations of the injection rate at the eastern boundary and to the likelihood of a zonally elongated recirculation cell between the Equatorial Counter Current and the SEC within the Indian Ocean. Lateral mixing disperses the ITW plume meridionally with an effective isopycnal mixing coefficient of 1.1 to 1.6 x 10(4) m(2)sec(-1).

Billheimer, S, Talley LD.  2016.  Annual cycle and destruction of Eighteen Degree Water. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans. 121:6604-6617.   10.1002/2016jc011799   AbstractWebsite

Eighteen Degree Water (EDW), the subtropical mode water of the western North Atlantic, is a voluminous, weakly stratified upper ocean water mass that acts as a subsurface reservoir of heat, nutrients, and CO2. This thick layer persists throughout the year, but nearly half of its volume is dispersed or mixed away, diffusing its properties into the thermocline, from the time it outcrops in winter until it is renewed the following year. CTD observations from Argo profiling floats and acoustically tracked, isothermally bound profiling floats are used to quantify EDW destruction rates and investigate the relevant processes responsible for the large annual cycle of EDW. EDW destruction occurs primarily at the top of the EDW layer, with the highest EDW destruction rates occurring during early summer. Slower, steadier EDW destruction is observed in early winter. EDW destruction is dominated by 1-D vertical diffusion, while mesoscale, along-isopycnal stirring is also significant, explaining approximately 1/3 of the total annual EDW destruction. Destruction via along-isopycnal processes is more prevalent near the Gulf Stream than in the southern Sargasso Sea, due to higher potential vorticity gradients and enhanced mesoscale activity.

Johnson, KS, Plant JN, Dunne JP, Talley LD, Sarmiento JL.  2017.  Annual nitrate drawdown observed by SOCCOM profiling floats and the relationship to annual net community production. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans. 122:6668-6683.   10.1002/2017jc012839   AbstractWebsite

Annual nitrate cycles have been measured throughout the pelagic waters of the Southern Ocean, including regions with seasonal ice cover and southern hemisphere subtropical zones. Vertically resolved nitrate measurements were made using in situ ultraviolet spectrophotometer (ISUS) and submersible ultraviolet nitrate analyzer (SUNA) optical nitrate sensors deployed on profiling floats. Thirty-one floats returned 40 complete annual cycles. The mean nitrate profile from the month with the highest winter nitrate minus the mean profile from the month with the lowest nitrate yields the annual nitrate drawdown. This quantity was integrated to 200 m depth and converted to carbon using the Redfield ratio to estimate annual net community production (ANCP) throughout the Southern Ocean south of 30 degrees S. A well-defined, zonal mean distribution is found with highest values (3-4 mol C m(-2) yr(-1)) from 40 to 50 degrees S. Lowest values are found in the subtropics and in the seasonal ice zone. The area weighted mean was 2.9 mol C m(-2) yr(-1) for all regions south of 40 degrees S. Cumulative ANCP south of 50 degrees S is 1.3 Pg C yr(-1). This represents about 13% of global ANCP in about 14% of the global ocean area. Plain Language Summary This manuscript reports on 40 annual cycles of nitrate observed by chemical sensors on SOCCOM profiling floats. The annual drawdown in nitrate concentration by phytoplankton is used to assess the spatial variability of annual net community production in the Southern Ocean. This ANCP is a key component of the global carbon cycle and it exerts an important control on atmospheric carbon dioxide. We show that the results are consistent with our prior understanding of Southern Ocean ANCP, which has required decades of observations to accumulate. The profiling floats now enable annual resolution of this key process. The results also highlight spatial variability in ANCP in the Southern Ocean.

Delman, AS, Sprintall J, McClean JL, Talley LD.  2016.  Anomalous Java cooling at the initiation of positive Indian Ocean Dipole events. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans.   10.1002/2016JC011635   AbstractWebsite

Anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) cooling south of Java, initiated during May–July, is an important precursor to positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) events. As shown previously, the Java SST anomalies are spatially and temporally coincident with seasonal upwelling induced locally by southeasterly trade winds. However, we confirm earlier findings that interannual variability of the Java cooling is primarily driven by remote wind forcing from coastal Sumatra and the equatorial Indian Ocean (EqIO); we also find an influence from winds along the Indonesian Throughflow. The wind forcing in the EqIO and along coastal Sumatra does not initiate SST cooling locally due to a deep thermocline and thick barrier layer, but can force upwelling Kelvin waves that induce substantial surface cooling once they reach the seasonally shallower thermocline near the coast of Java. Satellite altimetry is used to obtain a Kelvin wave coefficient that approximates Kelvin wave amplitude variations along the equator. All pIOD years in the satellite record have anomalous levels of upwelling Kelvin wave activity along the equator during April–June, suggesting that upwelling waves during this season are necessary for pIOD event development. However, a change to wind-forced downwelling Kelvin waves during July–August can abruptly terminate cool Java SST anomalies and weaken the pIOD event. Upwelling Kelvin wave activity along the equator and wind stress anomalies west of Sumatra are both robust predictors of the IOD index later in the calendar year, while values of the Kelvin wave coefficient are the most reliable predictor of pIOD events specifically.

Sloyan, BM, Talley LD, Chereskin TK, Fine R, Holte J.  2010.  Antarctic Intermediate Water and Subantarctic Mode Water Formation in the Southeast Pacific: The Role of Turbulent Mixing. Journal of Physical Oceanography. 40:1558-1574.   10.1175/2010jpo4114.1   AbstractWebsite

During the 2005 austral winter (late August-early October) and 2006 austral summer (February-mid-March) two intensive hydrographic surveys of the southeast Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean were completed. In this study the turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rate epsilon, diapycnal diffusivity kappa, and buoyancy flux J(b) are estimated from the CTD/O(2) and XCTD profiles for each survey. Enhanced kappa of O(10(-3) to 10(-4) m(2) s(-1)) is found near the Subantarctic Front (SAF) during both surveys. During the winter survey, enhanced kappa was also observed north of the "subduction front,'' the northern boundary of the winter deep mixed layer north of the SAF. In contrast, the summer survey found enhanced kappa across the entire region north of the SAF below the shallow seasonal mixed layer. The enhanced kappa below the mixed layer decays rapidly with depth. A number of ocean processes are considered that may provide the energy flux necessary to support the observed diffusivity. The observed buoyancy flux (4.0 x 10(-8) m(2) s(-3)) surrounding the SAF during the summer survey is comparable to the mean buoyancy flux (0.57 x 10(-8) m(2) s(-3)) associated with the change in the interior stratification between austral summer and autumn, determined from Argo profiles. The authors suggest that reduced ocean stratification during austral summer and autumn, by interior mixing, preconditions the water column for the rapid development of deep mixed layers and efficient Antarctic Intermediate Water and Subantarctic Mode Water formation during austral winter and early spring.

Suga, T, Talley LD.  1995.  Antarctic Intermediate Water Circulation in the Tropical and Subtropical South-Atlantic. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans. 100:13441-13453.   10.1029/95jc00858   AbstractWebsite

Recent hydrographic data from the South Atlantic Ventilation Experiment cruises and others are combined with historical data and used to map the isopycnal properties corresponding to the Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) in the Atlantic Ocean. The low salinity of the AAIW extends eastward across the South Atlantic just south of the equator (3-4 degrees S). Evidence of a weak eastward flow just north of the equator (1-2 degrees N) is also shown. Lateral and vertical homogenization of properties in the AAIW is found at the equator between 2 degrees S and 2 degrees N; there is no clear zonal gradient in salinity just along the equator. These observations suggest enhanced mixing within the equatorial baroclinic deformation radius. The South Atlantic tropical gyre is shown to consist of the following three cells: one cyclonic cell centered at about 7 degrees S, another centered at about 19 degrees S in the west and 23 degrees S in the east, and one anticyclonic cell centered at about 13 degrees S. These cells are associated with a westward extension at 10 degrees S of high salinity and low oxygen which originates in the eastern tropical South Atlantic and a front in these properties at about 15 degrees S in the west and about 20 degrees S in the east.

Talley, LD.  1996.  Antarctic Intermediate Water in the South Atlantic. The South Atlantic : present and past circulation. ( Wefer G, Berger WH, Siedler G, Webb D, Eds.).:219-238., Berlin ; New York: Springer Abstract
Holte, J, Talley LD, Gilson J, Roemmich D.  2017.  An Argo mixed layer climatology and database. Geophysical Research Letters. 44:5618-5626.   10.1002/2017gl073426   AbstractWebsite

A global climatology and database of mixed layer properties are computed from nearly 1,250,000 Argo profiles. The climatology is calculated with both a hybrid algorithm for detecting the mixed layer depth (MLD) and a standard threshold method. The climatology provides accurate information about the depth, properties, extent, and seasonal patterns of global mixed layers. The individual profile results in the database can be used to construct time series of mixed layer properties in specific regions of interest. The climatology and database are available online at . The MLDs calculated by the hybrid algorithm are shallower and generally more accurate than those of the threshold method, particularly in regions of deep winter mixed layers; the new climatology differs the most from existing mixed layer climatologies in these regions. Examples are presented from the Labrador and Irminger Seas, the Southern Ocean, and the North Atlantic Ocean near the Gulf Stream. In these regions the threshold method tends to overestimate winter MLDs by approximately 10% compared to the algorithm.

Talley, LD, Tishchenko P, Luchin V, Nedashkovskiy A, Sagalaev S, Kang DJ, Warner M, Min DH.  2004.  Atlas of Japan (East) Sea hydrographic properties in summer, 1999. Progress in Oceanography. 61:277-348.   10.1016/j.pocean.2004.06.011   AbstractWebsite

Hydrographic properties from CTD and discrete bottle sample profiles covering the Japan (East) Sea in summer, 1999, are presented in vertical sections, maps at standard depths, maps on isopycnal surfaces, and as property-property distributions. This data set covers most of the Sea with the exception of the western boundary region and northern Tatar Strait, and includes nutrients, pH, alkalinity, and chlorofluorocarbons, as well as the usual temperature, salinity, and oxygen observations. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Gray, AR, Johnson KS, Bushinsky SM, Riser SC, Russell JL, Talley LD, Wanninkhof R, Williams NL, Sarmiento JL.  2018.  Autonomous biogeochemical floats detect significant carbon dioxide outgassing in the high-latitude Southern Ocean. Geophysical Research Letters. 45:9049-9057.   10.1029/2018gl078013   AbstractWebsite

Although the Southern Ocean is thought to account for a significant portion of the contemporary oceanic uptake of carbon dioxide (CO2), flux estimates in this region are based on sparse observations that are strongly biased toward summer. Here we present new estimates of Southern Ocean air-sea CO2 fluxes calculated with measurements from biogeochemical profiling floats deployed by the Southern Ocean Carbon and Climate Observations and Modeling project during 2014-2017. Compared to ship-based CO2 flux estimates, the float-based fluxes find significantly stronger outgassing in the zone around Antarctica where carbon-rich deep waters upwell to the surface ocean. Although interannual variability contributes, this difference principally stems from the lack of autumn and winter ship-based observations in this high-latitude region. These results suggest that our current understanding of the distribution of oceanic CO2 sources and sinks may need revision and underscore the need for sustained year-round biogeochemical observations in the Southern Ocean. Plain Language Summary The Southern Ocean absorbs a great deal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and helps to shape the climate of Earth. However, we do not have many observations from this part of the world, especially in winter, because it is remote and inhospitable. Here we present new observations from robotic drifting buoys that take measurements of temperature, salinity, and other water properties year-round. We use these data to estimate the amount of carbon dioxide being absorbed by the Southern Ocean. In the open water region close to Antarctica, the new estimates are remarkably different from the previous estimates, which were based on data collected from ships. We discuss some possible reasons that the float-based estimate is different and how this changes our understanding of how the ocean absorbs carbon dioxide.

Johnson, KS, Plant JN, Coletti LJ, Jannasch HW, Sakamoto CM, Riser SC, Swift DD, Williams NL, Boss E, Haentjens N, Talley LD, Sarmiento JL.  2017.  Biogeochemical sensor performance in the SOCCOM profiling float array. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans. 122:6416-6436.   10.1002/2017jc012838   AbstractWebsite

The Southern Ocean Carbon and Climate Observations and Modeling (SOCCOM) program has begun deploying a large array of biogeochemical sensors on profiling floats in the Southern Ocean. As of February 2016, 86 floats have been deployed. Here the focus is on 56 floats with quality-controlled and adjusted data that have been in the water at least 6 months. The floats carry oxygen, nitrate, pH, chlorophyll fluorescence, and optical backscatter sensors. The raw data generated by these sensors can suffer from inaccurate initial calibrations and from sensor drift over time. Procedures to correct the data are defined. The initial accuracy of the adjusted concentrations is assessed by comparing the corrected data to laboratory measurements made on samples collected by a hydrographic cast with a rosette sampler at the float deployment station. The long-term accuracy of the corrected data is compared to the GLODAPv2 data set whenever a float made a profile within 20 km of a GLODAPv2 station. Based on these assessments, the fleet average oxygen data are accurate to 1 +/- 1%, nitrate to within 0.5 +/- 0.5 mu mol kg(-1), and pH to 0.005 +/- 0.007, where the error limit is 1 standard deviation of the fleet data. The bio-optical measurements of chlorophyll fluorescence and optical backscatter are used to estimate chlorophyll a and particulate organic carbon concentration. The particulate organic carbon concentrations inferred from optical backscatter appear accurate to with 35 mg C m(-3) or 20%, whichever is larger. Factors affecting the accuracy of the estimated chlorophyll a concentrations are evaluated.

Yun, JY, Talley LD.  2003.  Cabbeling and the density of the North Pacific Intermediate Water quantified by an inverse method. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans. 108   10.1029/2002jc001482   AbstractWebsite

North Pacific Intermediate Water (NPIW), defined as the main salinity minimum in the subtropical North Pacific, at a density of 26.7-26.8sigma(theta), is denser than the winter surface water in the Oyashio which is the source of the salinity minimum. We showed previously that cabbeling and double diffusion during mixing between the Oyashio water and more saline Kuroshio water can account for the density increase from the surface source water to the salinity minimum. An inverse method is employed herein to quantify the effect of cabbeling, using CTD data from the western North Pacific. The difference between proportional mixing between parcels of Oyashio and Kuroshio waters and mixing along isopycnals is exploited to compute the convergence of water into density layers. The diapycnal transport convergence associated with cabbeling into the NPIW density layer is estimated to be 0.56 Sv for an assumed turnover time of 1 year in the region between 142degreesE and 152degreesE. Diapycnal transport convergences in the regions 152degreesE-165degreesE, 165degreesE-175degreesW, and 175degreesW-136degreesW are similarly estimated by assuming longer turnover times. We estimate that the total diapycnal transport convergence into the NPIW density layer may be up to 2.3 Sv in the entire NPIW region.

Williams, NL, Juranek LW, Feely RA, Johnson KS, Sarmiento JL, Talley LD, Dickson AG, Gray AR, Wanninkhof R, Russell JL, Riser SC, Takeshita Y.  2017.  Calculating surface ocean pCO(2) from biogeochemical Argo floats equipped with pH: An uncertainty analysis. Global Biogeochemical Cycles. 31:591-604.   10.1002/2016gb005541   AbstractWebsite

More than 74 biogeochemical profiling floats that measure water column pH, oxygen, nitrate, fluorescence, and backscattering at 10 day intervals have been deployed throughout the Southern Ocean. Calculating the surface ocean partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO(2sw)) from float pH has uncertainty contributions from the pH sensor, the alkalinity estimate, and carbonate system equilibrium constants, resulting in a relative standard uncertainty in pCO(2sw) of 2.7% (or 11 mu atm at pCO(2sw) of 400 mu atm). The calculated pCO(2sw) from several floats spanning a range of oceanographic regimes are compared to existing climatologies. In some locations, such as the subantarctic zone, the float data closely match the climatologies, but in the polar Antarctic zone significantly higher pCO(2sw) are calculated in the wintertime implying a greater air-sea CO2 efflux estimate. Our results based on four representative floats suggest that despite their uncertainty relative to direct measurements, the float data can be used to improve estimates for air-sea carbon flux, as well as to increase knowledge of spatial, seasonal, and interannual variability in this flux. Plain Language Summary The Southern Ocean is a key player in the global flow of carbon, yet it is hard to reach, and there are relatively few measurements there, especially in winter. Measuring the amount of carbon dioxide gas in seawater is key to advancing our understanding of the Southern Ocean. More than 74 robotic floats that use sensors to measure seawater properties have been deployed throughout the Southern Ocean, and each has a lifetime of around 5 years. It is currently not possible to directly measure carbon dioxide gas from these floats; however, it is possible to estimate carbon dioxide from things that the float can measure, like pH, a measure of ocean acidity. Here surface ocean carbon dioxide is estimated from several floats and compared to two ship-based estimates. In some locations, the floats closely match the existing estimates, but in other locations the floats see significantly higher surface ocean carbon dioxide in the wintertime, reinforcing the idea that the Southern Ocean's role in the global carbon cycle needs a closer look. Our results show that despite not measuring carbon dioxide directly, these floats will help scientists learn a lot about the Southern Ocean's part in the global flow of carbon.

Talley, LD, Feely RA, Sloyan BM, Wanninkhof R, Baringer MO, Bullister JL, Carlson CA, Doney SC, Fine RA, Firing E, Gruber N, Hansell DA, Ishii M, Johnson GC, Katsumata K, Key RM, Kramp M, Langdon C, Macdonald AM, Mathis JT, McDonagh EL, Mecking S, Millero FJ, Mordy CW, Nakano T, Sabine CL, Smethie WM, Swift JH, Tanhua T, Thurnherr AM, Warner MJ, Zhang J-Z.  2016.  Changes in Ocean Heat, Carbon Content, and Ventilation: A Review of the First Decade of GO-SHIP Global Repeat Hydrography. Annual Review of Marine Science. 8:185-215.   10.1146/annurev-marine-052915-100829   AbstractWebsite

Global ship-based programs, with highly accurate, full water column physical and biogeochemical observations repeated decadally since the 1970s, provide a crucial resource for documenting ocean change. The ocean, a central component of Earth's climate system, is taking up most of Earth's excess anthropogenic heat, with about 19% of this excess in the abyssal ocean beneath 2,000 m, dominated by Southern Ocean warming. The ocean also has taken up about 27% of anthropogenic carbon, resulting in acidification of the upper ocean. Increased stratification has resulted in a decline in oxygen and increase in nutrients in the Northern Hemisphere thermocline and an expansion of tropical oxygen minimum zones. Southern Hemisphere thermocline oxygen increased in the 2000s owing to stronger wind forcingand ventilation. The most recent decade of global hydrography has mapped dissolved organic carbon, a large, bioactive reservoir, for the first time and quantified its contribution to export production (∼20%) and deep-ocean oxygen utilization. Ship-based measurements also show that vertical diffusivity increases from a minimum in the thermocline to a maximum within the bottom 1,500 m, shifting our physical paradigm of the ocean's overturning circulation.

Doney, SC, Ruckelshaus M, Duffy JE, Barry JP, Chan F, English CA, Galindo HM, Grebmeier JM, Hollowed AB, Knowlton N, Polovina J, Rabalais NN, Sydeman WJ, Talley LD.  2012.  Climate Change Impacts on Marine Ecosystems. Annual Review of Marine Science, Vol 4. 4( Carlson CA, Giovannoni SJ, Eds.).:11-37., Palo Alto: Annual Reviews   10.1146/annurev-marine-041911-111611   Abstract

In marine ecosystems, rising atmospheric CO2 and climate change are associated with concurrent shifts in temperature, circulation, stratification, nutrient input, oxygen content, and ocean acidification, with potentially wide-ranging biological effects. Population-level shifts are occurring because of physiological intolerance to new environments, altered dispersal patterns, and changes in species interactions. Together with local climate-driven invasion and extinction, these processes result in altered community structure and diversity, including possible emergence of novel ecosystems. Impacts are particularly striking for the poles and the tropics, because of the sensitivity of polar ecosystems to sea-ice retreat and poleward species migrations as well as the sensitivity of coral-algal symbiosis to minor increases in temperature. Midlatitude upwelling systems, like the California Current, exhibit strong linkages between climate and species distributions, phenology, and demography. Aggregated effects may modify energy and material flows as well as biogeochemical cycles, eventually impacting the overall ecosystem functioning and services upon which people and societies depend.

Marshall, J, Andersson A, Bates N, Dewar W, Doney S, Edson J, Ferrari R, Forget G, Fratantoni D, Gregg M, Joyce T, Kelly K, Lozier S, Lumpkin R, Maze G, Palter J, Samelson R, Silverthorne K, Skyllingstad E, Straneo F, Talley L, Thomas L, Toole J, Weller R, Climode G.  2009.  The CLIMODE FIELD CAMPAIGN Observing the Cycle of Convection and Restratification over the Gulf Stream. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 90:1337-1350.   10.1175/2009bams2706.1   AbstractWebsite
Talley, LD.  2013.  Closure of the Global Overturning Circulation Through the Indian, Pacific, and Southern Oceans: Schematics and Transports. Oceanography. 26:80-97. AbstractWebsite

The overturning pathways for the surface-ventilated North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) and Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) and the diffusively formed Indian Deep Water (IDW) and Pacific Deep Water (PDW) are intertwined. The global overturning circulation (GOC) includes both large wind-driven upwelling in the Southern Ocean and important internal diapycnal transformation in the deep Indian and Pacific Oceans. All three northern-source Deep Waters (NADW, IDW, PDW) move southward and upwell in the Southern Ocean. AABW is produced from the denser, salty NADW and a portion of the lighter, low oxygen IDW/PDW that upwells above and north of NADW. The remaining upwelled IDW/PDW stays near the surface, moving into the subtropical thermoclines, and ultimately sources about one-third of the NADW. Another third of the NADW comes from AABW upwelling in the Atlantic. The remaining third comes from AABW upwelling to the thermocline in the Indian-Pacific. Atlantic cooling associated with NADW formation (0.3 PW north of 32 degrees S; 1 PW = 1015 W) and Southern Ocean cooling associated with AABW formation (0.4 PW south of 32 degrees S) are balanced mostly by 0.6 PW of deep diffusive heating in the Indian and Pacific Oceans; only 0.1 PW is gained at the surface in the Southern Ocean. Thus, while an adiabatic model of NADW global overturning driven by winds in the Southern Ocean, with buoyancy added only at the surface in the Southern Ocean, is a useful dynamical idealization, the associated heat changes require full participation of the diffusive Indian and Pacific Oceans, with a basin-averaged diffusivity on the order of the Munk value of 10(-4) m(2) s(-1).

Cerovecki, I, Talley LD, Mazloff MR.  2011.  A Comparison of Southern Ocean Air-Sea Buoyancy Flux from an Ocean State Estimate with Five Other Products. Journal of Climate. 24:6283-6306.   10.1175/2011jcli3858.1   AbstractWebsite

The authors have intercompared the following six surface buoyancy flux estimates, averaged over the years 2005-07: two reanalyses [the recent ECMWF reanalysis (ERA-Interim; hereafter ERA), and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-NCAR reanalysis 1 (hereafter NCEP1)], two recent flux products developed as an improvement of NCEP1 [the flux product by Large and Yeager and the Southern Ocean State Estimate (SOSE)], and two ad hoc air sea flux estimates that are obtained by combining the NCEP1 or ERA net radiative fluxes with turbulent flux estimates using the Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Response Experiment (COARE) 3.0 bulk formulas with NCEP1 or ERA input variables. The accuracy of SOSE adjustments of NCEP1 atmospheric fields (which SOSE uses as an initial guess and a constraint) was assessed by verification that SOSE reduces the biases in the NCEP1 fluxes as diagnosed by the Working Group on Air-Sea Fluxes (Taylor), suggesting that oceanic observations may be a valuable constraint to improve atmospheric variables. Compared with NCEP1, both SOSE and Large and Yeager increase the net ocean heat loss in high latitudes, decrease ocean heat loss in the subtropical Indian Ocean, decrease net evaporation in the subtropics, and decrease net precipitation in polar latitudes. The large-scale pattern of SOSE and Large and Yeager turbulent heat flux adjustment is similar, but the magnitude of SOSE adjustments is significantly larger. Their radiative heat flux adjustments patterns differ. Turbulent heat fluxes determined by combining COARE bulk formulas with NCEP1 or ERA should not be combined with unmodified NCEP1 or ERA radiative fluxes as the net ocean heat gain poleward of 25 degrees S becomes unrealistically large. The other surface flux products (i.e., NCEP1, ERA, Large and Yeager, and SOSE) balance more closely. Overall, the statistical estimates of the differences between the various air-sea heat flux products tend lobe largest in regions with strong ocean mesoscale activity such as the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the western boundary currents.

Snyder, S, Franks PJS, Talley LD, Xu Y, Kohin S.  2017.  Crossing the line: Tunas actively exploit submesoscale fronts to enhance foraging success. Limnology and Oceanography Letters. 2:187-194.   10.1002/lol2.10049   Abstract

Fronts—i.e., the boundaries between water masses—are ubiquitous in the world oceans and have been shown to significantly influence pelagic ecosystems with enhanced local productivity and increased abundances of forage fish and top predators. Here we use data from archival tags to document how four juvenile albacore tunas foraged at and exploited a thermal front. Of the 3098 observed trips, the albacore mainly swam across the front between the warm side above the thermocline and the cold side below the thermocline with an average of 78 ± 20.4 cross-frontal trips per fish per day. The warm frontal surface waters provided a thermal resource, allowing the tuna to maintain higher body temperatures and thus forage more efficiently in the food-rich waters of the cold side of the front. Foraging success of the tunas decreased as the cross-front thermal gradient weakened. This first look into small-scale use of fronts by a top predator demonstrates that ephemeral, submesoscale oceanic features can play a significant role in pelagic ecology.

Talley, LD, Reid JL, Robbins PE.  2003.  Data-based meridional overturning streamfunctions for the global ocean. Journal of Climate. 16:3213-3226.   10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<3213:dmosft>;2   AbstractWebsite

The meridional overturning circulation for the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans is computed from absolute geostrophic velocity estimates based on hydrographic data and from climatological Ekman transports. The Atlantic overturn includes the expected North Atlantic Deep Water formation ( including Labrador Sea Water and Nordic Sea Overflow Water), with an amplitude of about 18 Sv through most of the Atlantic and an error of the order of 3 - 5 Sv (1 Sv = 10(6) m(3) s(-1)). The Lower Circumpolar Deep Water ( Antarctic Bottom Water) flows north with about 8 Sv of upwelling and a southward return in the South Atlantic, and 6 Sv extending to and upwelling in the North Atlantic. The northward flow of 8 Sv in the upper layer in the Atlantic ( sea surface through the Antarctic Intermediate Water) is transformed to lower density in the Tropics before losing buoyancy in the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic Current. The Pacific overturning streamfunction includes 10 Sv of Lower Circumpolar Deep Water flowing north into the South Pacific to upwell and return southward as Pacific Deep Water, and a North Pacific Intermediate Water cell of 2 Sv. The northern North Pacific has no active deep water formation at the sea surface, but in this analysis there is downwelling from the Antarctic Intermediate Water into the Pacific Deep Water, with upwelling in the Tropics. For global Southern Hemisphere overturn across 30degreesS, the overturning is separated into a deep and a shallow overturning cell. In the deep cell, 22 - 27 Sv of deep water flows southward and returns northward as bottom water. In the shallow cell, 9 Sv flows southward at low density and returns northward just above the intermediate water density. In all three oceans, the Tropics appear to dominate upwelling across isopycnals, including the migration of the deepest waters upward to the thermocline in the Indian and Pacific. Estimated diffusivities associated with this tropical upwelling are the same order of magnitude in all three oceans. It is shown that vertically varying diffusivity associated with topography can produce deep downwelling in the absence of external buoyancy loss. The rate of such downwelling for the northern North Pacific is estimated as 2 Sv at most, which is smaller than the questionable downwelling derived from the velocity analysis.

Talley, LD, Lobanov V, Ponomarev V, Salyuk A, Tishchenko P, Zhabin I, Riser S.  2003.  Deep convection and brine rejection in the Japan Sea. Geophysical Research Letters. 30   10.1029/2002gl016451   AbstractWebsite

Direct water mass renewal through convection deeper than 1000 m and the independent process of dense water production through brine rejection during sea ice formation occur at only a limited number of sites globally. Our late winter observations in 2000 and 2001 show that the Japan (East) Sea is a part of both exclusive groups. Japan Sea deep convection apparently occurs every winter, but massive renewal of bottom waters through brine rejection had not occurred for many decades prior to the extremely cold winter of 2001. The sites for both renewal mechanisms are south of Vladivostok, in the path of cold continental air outbreaks.

Tamsitt, V, Talley LD, Mazloff MR.  2019.  A deep eastern boundary current carrying Indian deep water south of Australia. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans. 124:2218-2238.   10.1029/2018jc014569   Abstract

In the Southern Hemisphere, the ocean's deep waters are predominantly transported from low to high latitudes via boundary currents. In addition to the Deep Western Boundary Currents, pathways along the eastern boundaries of the southern Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific transport deep water poleward into the Southern Ocean where these waters upwell to the sea surface. These deep eastern boundary currents and their physical drivers are not well characterized, particularly those carrying carbon and nutrient-rich deep waters from the Indian and Pacific basins. Here we describe the poleward deep eastern boundary current that carries Indian Deep Water along the southern boundary of Australia to the Southern Ocean using a combination of hydrographic observations and Lagrangian experiments in an eddy-permitting ocean state estimate. We find strong evidence for a deep boundary current carrying the low-oxygen, carbon-rich signature of Indian Deep Water extending between 1,500 and 3,000 m along the Australian continental slope, from 30°S to the Antarctic Circumpolar Current southwest of Tasmania. From the Lagrangian particles it is estimated that this pathway transports approximately 5.8 ± 1.3 Sv southward from 30°S to the northern boundary of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. The volume transport of this pathway is highly variable and is closely correlated with the overlying westward volume transport of the Flinders Current.

Talley, LD, Sprintall J.  2005.  Deep expression of the Indonesian Throughflow: Indonesian Intermediate Water in the South Equatorial Current. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans. 110   10.1029/2004jc002826   AbstractWebsite

[1] The narrow westward flow of the South Equatorial Current ( SEC), centered at 12 degrees S and carrying freshened water from the Indonesian seas, is traced across the Indian Ocean using data from the World Ocean Circulation Experiment. The jet is remarkably zonal and quasi-barotropic, following the potential vorticity contours characteristic of the tropics, separating higher-oxygen and lower-nutrient waters of the subtropics from the oxygen-depleted waters of the tropics. The fresh surface waters are the usual Indonesian Throughflow Water reported previously. Less well studied is the intermediate-depth SEC carrying fresher water from the Banda Sea and Pacific, known as Indonesian Intermediate Water (IIW) or Banda Sea Intermediate Water. The high-silica signature of IIW is documented here, permitting us to ( 1) trace the spread of IIW from sill density at Leti Strait to higher density as it is diluted toward the west and ( 2) define an IIW core for transport estimates, of 3 to 7 Sv westward, using geostrophic and LADCP velocities. The high IIW silica is traced to the Banda Sea, arising from known diapycnal mixing of Pacific waters entering through Lifamatola Strait and local sources. New heat, freshwater, oxygen, and silica budgets within the Indonesian seas suggest at least 3 Sv of inflow through the relatively deep Lifamatola Strait, supplementing the observed 9 Sv through the shallower Makassar Strait. Both shallow and deep inflows and outflows, along with vigorous mixing and internal sources within the Indonesian seas, are required to capture the transformation of Pacific to Indonesian Throughflow waters.