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McCarthy, MC, Talley LD.  1999.  Three-dimensional isoneutral potential vorticity structure in the Indian Ocean. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans. 104:13251-13267.   10.1029/1999jc900028   AbstractWebsite

The three-dimensional isoneutral potential vorticity structure of the Indian Ocean is examined using World Ocean Circulation Experiment and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration conductivity-temperature-depth data and historical bottle data. The distribution of the potential vorticity is set by the Indian Ocean's source waters and their circulation inside the basin. The lower thermocline has a high potential vorticity signal extending westward from northwest of Australia and a low signal from the Subantarctic Mode Water in the south. The Antarctic Intermediate Water inflow creates patches of high potential vorticity at intermediate depths in the southern Indian Ocean, below which the field becomes dominated by planetary vorticity, indicating a weaker meridional circulation and weaker potential vorticity sources. Wind-driven gyre depths have lower potential vorticity gradients primarily due to same-source waters. Homogenization and western shadow zones are not observed. The P-effect dominates the effect of the Somali Current and the Red Sea Water on the potential vorticity distribution. Isopleths tilt strongly away from latitude lines in the deep and abyssal waters as the Circumpolar Deep Water fills the basins in deep western boundary currents, indicating a strong meridional circulation north of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. The lower-gradient intermediate layer surrounded vertically by layers with higher meridional potential vorticity gradients in the subtropical Indian Ocean suggests that Rossby waves will travel similar to 1.3 times faster than standard theory predicts. To the south, several pools of homogenized potential vorticity appear in the upper 2000 m of the Southern Ocean where gyres previously have been identified. South of Australia the abyssal potential vorticity structure is set by a combination of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the bathymetry.

McCarthy, MC, Talley LD, Roemmich D.  2000.  Seasonal to interannual variability from expendable bathythermograph and TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter data in the South Pacific subtropical gyre. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans. 105:19535-19550.   10.1029/2000jc900056   AbstractWebsite

Estimates of dynamic height anomalies from expendable bathythermograph (XBT) and TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P) sea surface height (SSH) measurements were compared along a, transect at similar to 30 degrees S in the South Pacific. T/P SSH anomalies were calculated relative to a 5 year time mean. XBT dynamic height was calculated relative to 750 m using measured temperature and an objectively mapped climatological temperature-salinity relationship. The anomaly was obtained by subtracting out an objectively-mapped climatological dynamic height relative to 750 m. XBT temperature sections show evidence of a double-gyre structure, related to changes in shallow isopycnals near the gyre's center. XBT dynamic height and T/P SSH anomalies compare well with an RMS difference of 3.8 cm and a coherence above 0.7 for scales larger than 300 km. The differences between the two measures of dynamic height yield systematic patterns. Time-varying spatial averages of the differences are found to be related to changes in Sverdrup transport, zonal surface slope differences, and the 6 degrees C isotherm depth. Higher zonally averaged altimetry SSH than zonally averaged XBT height and larger northward transport from altimetry SSH than from XBT height correspond to gyre spinup determined from Sverdrup transport changes. This implies mass storage during gyre spinup due to the phase lag between the Ekman pumping and the full baroclinic Sverdrup response. Increases in the spatially averaged differences and zonal slope differences, associated with gyre spinup, correspond to shoaling in the 6 degrees C isotherm depth, requiring deep baroclinic changes out of phase with the 6 degrees C isotherm depth changes.

McCarthy, MC, Talley LD, Baringer MO.  1997.  Deep upwelling and diffusivity in the southern Central Indian Basin. Geophysical Research Letters. 24:2801-2804.   10.1029/97gl02112   AbstractWebsite

Transport of the deepest water westward through a gap at 28 degrees S in the Ninetyeast Ridge between the Central Indian Basin and the West Australia Basin is calculated from hydrographic data collected as part of WOCE Hydrographic Program section I8N. Zero reference velocity levels at mid-depth were chosen through consideration of water masses. The small transport of 1.0 Sv westward of water denser than sigma(4) = 45.92 kg m(-3) through the gap must all upwell in the southern Central Indian Basin. Of this, 0.7 Sv upwells between the central and western sill sections, that is, close to the sill itself. Using the areas covered by the isopycnal, we calculate an average vertical velocity of 3.3 . 10(-3) cm s(-1) close to the sill and of 4.2 . 10(-4) cm s(-1) west of the sill. Associated average vertical diffusivities are 105 cm(2) s(-1) close to the sill and 13 cm(2) s(-1) west of the sill, in this bottom layer.

McCartney, MS, Talley LD.  1984.  Warm-to-Cold Water Conversion in the Northern North-Atlantic Ocean. Journal of Physical Oceanography. 14:922-935.   10.1175/1520-0485(1984)014<0922:wtcwci>2.0.co;2   AbstractWebsite

A box Model of warm-to-cold-water conversion in the northern North Atlantic is developed and used to estimate conversion rates, given water mass temperatures, conversion paths and rate of air-sea heat exchange. The northern North Atlantic is modeled by three boxes, each required to satisfy heat and mass balance statements. The boxes represent the Norwegian Sea, and a two-layer representation of the open subpolar North Atlantic. In the Norwegian Sea box, warm water enters from the south, is cooled in the cyclonic gyre of the Norwegian–Greenland Sea, and the colder water returns southwards to the open subpolar North Atlantic. Some exchange with the North Polar Sea also is included. The open subpolar North Atlantic has two boxes. In the abyssal box, the dense overflows from the Norwegian Sea flow south, entraining warm water from the upper-ocean box. In the upper-ocean box, warm water enters from the south, supplying the warm water for an upper ocean cyclonic circulation that culminates in production by convection of Labrador Sea Water, and also the warm water that is entrained into the abyss, and the warm water that continues north into the Norwegian Sea. Our estimates are that 14 × 106 m3 s−1 of warm (11.5°C) water flows north to the west of Ireland, with about a third of this branching into the Norwegian Sea. The production rate for Labrador Sea Water is 8.5 × 106 m3 s−1), and this combines with a flow of dense Norwegian Sea Overflow waters (with entrained warmer waters) at 2.5 × 106 m3 s−1 to give a Deep Western Boundary Current of 11 × 106 m3 s−1. The total southward flow east of Newfoundland is this plus 4 × 106 m3 s−1 of cold less dense Labrador Current waters (there is a net southward flow between Newfoundland and Ireland of about 1 × 106 m3 s−1 supplied by northward flow through the Bering Strait, passing through the North Polar Sea to enter the Norwegian Sea.

McCartney, MS, Talley LD.  1982.  The Sub-Polar Mode Water of the North-Atlantic Ocean. Journal of Physical Oceanography. 12:1169-1188.   10.1175/1520-0485(1982)012<1169:tsmwot>2.0.co;2   AbstractWebsite

The warm waters of the subtropical and subpolar basins of the North Atlantic have tight regional temperature-salinity relationships, and are conventionally called the regional “Central Waters.” A volumetric census of the temperature-salinity characteristics of the North Atlantic by Wright and Worthington (1970) shows that waters characterized by certain segments of the T-S relationships have large volumes compared to those of other segments: volumetric “Mode Waters.” Such Mode Waters appear as layers with increased vertical separation between isopycnals-pycnostads. The present study reports on the existence of pycnostads in the central and eastern North Atlantic. These Subpolar Mode Waters are formed by deep winter convection in the subpolar North Atlantic, and participate in the upper water circulation of the northern North Atlantic. The seasonal outcropping of the pycnostads occurs within and adjacent to the North Atlantic Current, the Irminger Current, the East and West Greenland Currents, and the Labrador Current. The warmer pycnostads (10°C<=T<=15°C) recirculate in an anticyclonic subtropical gyre east and south of the North Atlantic Current, causing volumetric modes in the central and eastern subtropical North Atlantic. A branch of the North Atlantic Current carries somewhat heavier and cooler (8°C<=T<=10°C) pycnostads northward past Ireland. The bulk of the current turns westward, but one branch continues northward, providing a warm core to the Norwegian Current (8°C). Within the main westward flow the density continues to increase and temperature to decrease. Southeast of Iceland pycnostad temperatures are near 8°C. Following the cyclonic circulation around the Irminger Sea west of the Reykjanes Ridge the temperature drops to less than 5°C. The cyclonic flow around the Labrador Sea gives a final pycnostad temperature below 3.5°C. The last, coldest, densest pycnostad is the Labrador Sea Water which influences lower latitudes via the southward flowing, Deep Western Boundary Current along the western boundary, and via eastward flow at mid-depth in the North Atlantic Current (Talley and McCartney, 1982).

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National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, Medicine.  2017.  Sustaining ocean observations to understand future changes in earth’s climate. :150., Washington, DC: The National Academies Press   10.17226/24919   Abstract

The ocean is an integral component of the Earth’s climate system. It covers about 70% of the Earth’s surface and acts as its primary reservoir of heat and carbon, absorbing over 90% of the surplus heat and about 30% of the carbon dioxide associated with human activities, and receiving close to 100% of fresh water lost from land ice. With the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, notably carbon dioxide from fossil fuel combustion, the Earth’s climate is now changing more rapidly than at any time since the advent of human societies. Society will increasingly face complex decisions about how to mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change such as droughts, sea-level rise, ocean acidification, species loss, changes to growing seasons, and stronger and possibly more frequent storms. Observations play a foundational role in documenting the state and variability of components of the climate system and facilitating climate prediction and scenario development. Regular and consistent collection of ocean observations over decades to centuries would monitor the Earth’s main reservoirs of heat, carbon dioxide, and water and provides a critical record of long-term change and variability over multiple time scales. Sustained high-quality observations are also needed to test and improve climate models, which provide insights into the future climate system. Sustaining Ocean Observations to Understand Future Changes in Earth’s Climate considers processes for identifying priority ocean observations that will improve understanding of the Earth’s climate processes, and the challenges associated with sustaining these observations over long timeframes.

National Research Council(U.S.). Climate Research Committee..  1995.  Natural climate variability on decade-to-century time scales. :xiv,630p.., Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press Abstract
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National Research Council(U.S.). Committee on Future Science Opportunities in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean., Board. NRCPR(US).  2011.  Future science opportunities in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean. :1onlineresource(xiv,195pages)., Washington, D.C.: National Academies Press AbstractWebsite

"Antarctica and the surrounding Southern Ocean remains one of the world's last frontiers. Covering nearly 14 million km p2 s (an area approximately 1.4 times the size of the United States), Antarctica is the coldest, driest, highest, and windiest continent on Earth. While it is challenging to live and work in this extreme environment, this region offers many opportunities for scientific research. Ever since the first humans set foot on Antarctica a little more than a century ago, the discoveries made there have advanced our scientific knowledge of the region, the world, and the Universe--but there is still much more to learn. However, conducting scientific research in the harsh environmental conditions of Antarctica is profoundly challenging. Substantial resources are needed to establish and maintain the infrastructure needed to provide heat, light, transportation, and drinking water, while at the same time minimizing pollution of the environment and ensuring the safety of researchers. Future Science Opportunities in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean suggests actions for the United States to achieve success for the next generation of Antarctic and Southern Ocean science. The report highlights important areas of research by encapsulating each into a single, overarching question. The questions fall into two broad themes: (1) those related to global change, and (2) those related to fundamental discoveries. In addition, the report identified key science questions that will drive research in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean in coming decades, and highlighted opportunities to be leveraged to sustain and improve the U.S. research efforts in the region."--Publisher's description.

National Research Council(U.S.). Panel on Climate Change Feedbacks., National Research Council(U.S.). Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate..  2003.  Understanding climate change feedbacks. :xiv,152p.ill.23cm.., Washington, D.C.: National Academies Press, Abstract
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Ogle, SE, Tamsitt V, Josey SA, Gille ST, Cerovecki I, Talley LD, Weller RA.  2018.  Episodic Southern Ocean heat loss and its mixed layer impacts revealed by the farthest south multiyear surface flux mooring. Geophysical Research Letters. 45:5002-5010.   10.1029/2017gl076909   AbstractWebsite

The Ocean Observatories Initiative air-sea flux mooring deployed at 54.08 degrees S, 89.67 degrees W, in the southeast Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean, is the farthest south long-term open ocean flux mooring ever deployed. Mooring observations (February 2015 to August 2017) provide the first in situ quantification of annual net air-sea heat exchange from one of the prime Subantarctic Mode Water formation regions. Episodic turbulent heat loss events (reaching a daily mean net flux of -294W/m(2)) generally occur when northeastward winds bring relatively cold, dry air to the mooring location, leading to large air-sea temperature and humidity differences. Wintertime heat loss events promote deep mixed layer formation that lead to Subantarctic Mode Water formation. However, these processes have strong interannual variability; a higher frequency of 2 sigma and 3 sigma turbulent heat loss events in winter 2015 led to deep mixed layers (>300m), which were nonexistent in winter 2016.

Oka, E, Uehara K, Nakano T, Suga T, Yanagimoto D, Kouketsu S, Itoh S, Katsura S, Talley LD.  2014.  Synoptic observation of Central Mode Water in its formation region in spring 2003. Journal of Oceanography. 70:521-534.   10.1007/s10872-014-0248-2   AbstractWebsite

Hydrographic data east of Japan from five research cruises and Argo profiling floats in spring 2003 have been analyzed to examine the relationship of the formation of Central Mode Water (CMW) and Transition Region Mode Water (TRMW) in late winter 2003 to thermohaline fronts and mesoscale eddies. TRMW and the denser variety of CMW (D-CMW) were formed continuously just south of the subarctic frontal zone between 155 degrees E and 165 degrees W with little relation to eddies, suggesting that the absence of the permanent thermocline and halocline in this area is essential for the formation. The lighter variety of CMW (L-CMW) was formed south of the Kuroshio bifurcation front and east of 165 degrees E, partly in an anticyclonic eddy associated with the Kuroshio Extension. Some portion of D-CMW and L-CMW likely had been subducted to the permanent pycnocline by crossing southward the Kuroshio bifurcation front and the Kuroshio Extension front, respectively. In contrast, the formation of these waters in the western regions was inactive and was significantly different from that described previously using multiyear Argo float data. West of 155 degrees E, TRMW and D-CMW were formed only in two anticyclonic eddies that had been detached from the Kuroshio Extension 1-2 years ago. L-CMW was hardly formed west of 165 degrees E, which might be related to the upstream Kuroshio Extension being in its stable state characterized by low regional eddy activity.

Oka, E, Talley LD, Suga T.  2007.  Temporal variability of winter mixed layer in the mid- to high-latitude North Pacific. Journal of Oceanography. 63:293-307.   10.1007/s10872-007-0029-2   AbstractWebsite

Temperature and salinity data from 2001 through 2005 from Argo profiling floats have been analyzed to examine the time evolution of the mixed layer depth (MLD) and density in the late fall to early spring in mid to high latitudes of the North Pacific. To examine MLD variations on various time scales from several days to seasonal, relatively small criteria (0.03 kg m(-3) in density and 0.2 degrees C in temperature) are used to determine MLD. Our analysis emphasizes that maximum MLD in some regions occurs much earlier than expected. We also observe systematic differences in timing between maximum mixed layer depth and density. Specifically, in the formation regions of the Subtropical and Central Mode Waters and in the Bering Sea, where the winter mixed layer is deep, MLD reaches its maximum in late winter (February and March), as expected. In the eastern subarctic North Pacific, however, the shallow, strong, permanent halocline prevents the mixed layer from deepening after early January, resulting in a range of timings of maximum MLD between January and April. In the southern subtropics; from 20 degrees to 30 degrees N, where the winter mixed layer is relatively shallow, MLD reaches a maximum even earlier in December-January. In each region, MLD fluctuates on short time scales as it increases from late fall through early winter. Corresponding to this short-term variation, maximum MLD almost always occurs 0 to 100 days earlier than maximum mixed layer density in all regions.

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Park, GH, Lee K, Tishchenko P, Min DH, Warner MJ, Talley LD, Kang DJ, Kim KR.  2006.  Large accumulation of anthropogenic CO(2) in the East (Japan) Sea and its significant impact on carbonate chemistry. Global Biogeochemical Cycles. 20   10.1029/2005gb002676   AbstractWebsite

[ 1] This paper reports on a basin-wide inventory of anthropogenic CO(2) in the East ( Japan) Sea determined from high-quality alkalinity, chlorofluorocarbon, and nutrient data collected during a summertime survey in 1999 and total dissolved inorganic carbon data calculated from pH and alkalinity measurements. The data set comprises measurements from 203 hydrographic stations and covers most of the East Sea with the exception of the northwestern boundary region. Anthropogenic CO(2) concentrations are estimated by separating this value from total dissolved inorganic carbon using a tracer-based ( chlorofluorocarbon) separation technique. Wintertime surface CFC-12 data collected in regions of deep water formation off Vladivostok, Russia, improve the accuracy of estimates of anthropogenic CO(2) concentrations by providing improved air-sea CO(2) disequilibrium values for intermediate and deep waters. Our calculation yields a total anthropogenic CO(2) inventory in the East Sea of 0.40 +/- 0.06 petagrams of carbon as of 1999. Anthropogenic CO(2) has already reached the bottom of the East Sea, largely owing to the effective transport of anthropogenic CO(2) from the surface to the ocean interior via deep water formation in the waters off Vladivostok. The highest specific column inventory ( vertically integrated inventory per square meter) of anthropogenic CO(2) of 80 mol C m(-2) is found in the Japan Basin ( 40 degrees N - 44 degrees N). Comparison of this inventory with those for other major basins of the same latitude band reveal that the East Sea values are much higher than the inventory for the Pacific Ocean (20 - 30 mol C m(-2)) and are similar to the inventory for the North Atlantic (66 - 72 mol C m(-2)). The substantial accumulation of anthropogenic CO(2) in the East Sea during the industrial era has caused the aragonite and calcite saturation horizons to move upward by 80 - 220 m and 500 - 700 m, respectively. These upward movements are approximately 5 times greater than those found in the North Pacific. Both the large accumulation of anthropogenic CO(2) and its significant impact on carbonate chemistry in the East Sea suggest that this sea is an important site for monitoring the future impact of the oceanic invasion of anthropogenic CO(2).

Purkey, SG, Johnson GC, Talley LD, Sloyan BM, Wijffels SE, Smethie W, Mecking S, Katsumata K.  2019.  Unabated bottom water warming and freshening in the South Pacific Ocean. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans. 124:1778-1794.   10.1029/2018jc014775   AbstractWebsite

Abyssal ocean warming contributed substantially to anthropogenic ocean heat uptake and global sea level rise between 1990 and 2010. In the 2010s, several hydrographic sections crossing the South Pacific Ocean were occupied for a third or fourth time since the 1990s, allowing for an assessment of the decadal variability in the local abyssal ocean properties among the 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s. These observations from three decades reveal steady to accelerated bottom water warming since the 1990s. Strong abyssal (z>4,000m) warming of 3.5 (1.4) m degrees C/year (m degrees C=10(-3)degrees C) is observed in the Ross Sea, directly downstream from bottom water formation sites, with warming rates of 2.5 (0.4) m degrees C/year to the east in the Amundsen-Bellingshausen Basin and 1.3 (0.2) m degrees C/year to the north in the Southwest Pacific Basin, all associated with a bottom-intensified descent of the deepest isotherms. Warming is consistently found across all sections and their occupations within each basin, demonstrating that the abyssal warming is monotonic, basin-wide, and multidecadal. In addition, bottom water freshening was strongest in the Ross Sea, with smaller amplitude in the Amundsen-Bellingshausen Basin in the 2000s, but is discernible in portions of the Southwest Pacific Basin by the 2010s. These results indicate that bottom water freshening, stemming from strong freshening of Ross Shelf Waters, is being advected along deep isopycnals and mixed into deep basins, albeit on longer timescales than the dynamically driven, wave-propagated warming signal. We quantify the contribution of the warming to local sea level and heat budgets. Plain Language Summary Over 90% of the excess energy gained by Earth's climate system has been absorbed by the oceans, with about 10% found deeper than 2,000m. The rates and patterns of deep and abyssal (deeper than 4,000m) ocean warming, while vital for understanding how this heat sink might behave in the future, are poorly known owing to limited data. Here we use highly accurate data collected by ships along oceanic transects with decadal revisits to quantify how much heat and freshwater has entered the South Pacific Ocean between the 1990s and 2010s. We find widespread warming throughout the deep basins there and evidence that the warming rate has accelerated in the 2010s relative to the 1990s. The warming is strongest near Antarctica where the abyssal ocean is ventilated by surface waters that sink to the sea floor and hence become bottom water, but abyssal warming is observed everywhere. In addition, we observe an infusion of freshwater propagating along the pathway of the bottom water as it moves northward from Antarctica. We quantify the deep ocean warming contributions to heat uptake as well as sea level rise through thermal expansion.

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Rosso, I, Mazloff MR, Verdy A, Talley LD.  2017.  Space and time variability of the Southern Ocean carbon budget. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans. 122:7407-7432.   10.1002/2016jc012646   AbstractWebsite

The upper ocean dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) concentration is regulated by advective and diffusive transport divergence, biological processes, freshwater, and air-sea CO2 fluxes. The relative importance of these mechanisms in the Southern Ocean is uncertain, as year-round observations in this area have been limited. We use a novel physical-biogeochemical state estimate of the Southern Ocean to construct a closed DIC budget of the top 650 m and investigate the spatial and temporal variability of the different components of the carbon system. The dominant mechanisms of variability in upper ocean DIC depend on location and time and space scales considered. Advective transport is the most influential mechanism and governs the local DIC budget across the 10 day-5 year timescales analyzed. Diffusive effects are nearly negligible. The large-scale transport structure is primarily set by upwelling and downwelling, though both the lateral ageostrophic and geostrophic transports are significant. In the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, the carbon budget components are also influenced by the presence of topography and biological hot spots. In the subtropics, evaporation and air-sea CO2 flux primarily balances the sink due to biological production and advective transport. Finally, in the subpolar region sea ice processes, which change the seawater volume and thus the DIC concentration, compensate the large impact of the advective transport and modulate the timing of biological activity and air-sea CO2 flux.

Ruckelshaus, M, Doney SC, Galindo HM, Barry JP, Chan F, Duffy JE, English CA, Gaines SD, Grebmeier JM, Hollowed AB, Knowlton N, Polovina J, Rabalais NN, Sydeman WJ, Talley LD.  2013.  Securing ocean benefits for society in the face of climate change. Marine Policy. 40:154-159.   10.1016/j.marpol.2013.01.009   AbstractWebsite

Benefits humans rely on from the ocean - marine ecosystem services - are increasingly vulnerable under future climate. This paper reviews how three valued services have, and will continue to, shift under climate change: (1) capture fisheries, (2) food from aquaculture, and (3) protection from coastal hazards such as storms and sea-level rise. Climate adaptation planning is just beginning for fisheries, aquaculture production, and risk mitigation for coastal erosion and inundation. A few examples are highlighted, showing the promise of considering multiple ecosystem services in developing approaches to adapt to sea-level rise, ocean acidification, and rising sea temperatures. Ecosystem-based adaptation in fisheries and along coastlines and changes in aquaculture practices can improve resilience of species and habitats to future environmental challenges. Opportunities to use market incentives - such as compensation for services or nutrient trading schemes - are relatively untested in marine systems. Relocation of communities in response to rising sea levels illustrates the urgent need to manage human activities and investments in ecosystems to provide a sustainable flow of benefits in the face of future climate change. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Russell, JL, Kamenkovich I, Bitz C, Ferrari R, Gille ST, Goodman PJ, Hallberg R, Johnson K, Khazmutdinova K, Marinov I, Mazloff M, Riser S, Sarmiento JL, Speer K, Talley LD, Wanninkhof R.  2018.  Metrics for the evaluation of the Southern Ocean in coupled climate models and earth system models. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans. 123:3120-3143.   10.1002/2017jc013461   AbstractWebsite

The Southern Ocean is central to the global climate and the global carbon cycle, and to the climate's response to increasing levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases, as it ventilates a large fraction of the global ocean volume. Global coupled climate models and earth system models, however, vary widely in their simulations of the Southern Ocean and its role in, and response to, the ongoing anthropogenic trend. Due to the region's complex water-mass structure and dynamics, Southern Ocean carbon and heat uptake depend on a combination of winds, eddies, mixing, buoyancy fluxes, and topography. Observationally based metrics are critical for discerning processes and mechanisms, and for validating and comparing climate and earth system models. New observations and understanding have allowed for progress in the creation of observationally based data/model metrics for the Southern Ocean. Metrics presented here provide a means to assess multiple simulations relative to the best available observations and observational products. Climate models that perform better according to these metrics also better simulate the uptake of heat and carbon by the Southern Ocean. This report is not strictly an intercomparison, but rather a distillation of key metrics that can reliably quantify the "accuracy" of a simulation against observed, or at least observable, quantities. One overall goal is to recommend standardization of observationally based benchmarks that the modeling community should aspire to meet in order to reduce uncertainties in climate projections, and especially uncertainties related to oceanic heat and carbon uptake. Plain Language Summary Observationally based metrics are essential for the standardized evaluation of climate and earth system models, and for reducing the uncertainty associated with future projections by those models.

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Salmon, R, Talley LD.  1989.  Generalizations of Arakawas Jacobian. Journal of Computational Physics. 83:247-259.   10.1016/0021-9991(89)90118-6   AbstractWebsite

A simple method yields discrete Jacobians that obey analogues of the differential properties needed to conserve energy and enstrophy in 2-dimensional flow. The method is actually independent of the type of discretization and thus applies to an arbitrary representation in gridpoints, finite elements, or spectral modes, or to any mixture of the three. We illustrate the method by deriving simple energy- and enstrophy-conserving Jacobians for an irregular triangular mesh in a closed domain, and for a mixed gridpoint-and-mode representation in a semi-infinite channel.

Shcherbina, AY, Rudnick DL, Talley LD.  2005.  Ice-draft profiling from bottom-mounted ADCP data. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology. 22:1249-1266.   10.1175/jtech1776.1   AbstractWebsite

The feasibility of ice-draft profiling using an upward-looking bottom-mounted acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) is demonstrated. Ice draft is determined as the difference between the instrument depth, derived from high-accuracy pressure data, and the distance to the lower ice surface, determined by the ADCP echo travel time. Algorithms for the surface range estimate from the water-track echo intensity profiles, data quality control, and correction procedures have been developed. Sources of error in using an ADCP as an ice profiler were investigated using the models of sound signal propagation and reflection. The effects of atmospheric pressure changes, sound speed variation, finite instrument beamwidth, hardware signal processing, instrument tilt, beam misalignment, and vertical sensor offset are quantified. The developed algorithms are tested using the data from the winter-long ADCP deployment on the northwestern shelf of the Okhotsk Sea.

Shcherbina, AY, Talley LD, Rudnick DL.  2004.  Dense water formation on the northwestern shelf of the Okhotsk Sea: 1. Direct observations of brine rejection. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans. 109   10.1029/2003jc002196   AbstractWebsite

[1] Dense Shelf Water (DSW) formation due to brine rejection in the coastal polynya on the northwestern shelf of the Okhotsk Sea was studied using two bottom moorings during the winter of 1999 - 2000. A steady salinity and density increase that continued for over a month was observed at the shallower mooring. The maximum density of sigma(theta) = 26.92 kg m(-3) was reached during this period. The density increase terminated abruptly in late February, while the active brine rejection continued for several more weeks based on indirect evidence from water properties and ice cover. This termination was possibly due to the onset of baroclinic instability of the density front at the polynya edge facilitating offshore eddy transport of the density anomaly. Observed periodic baroclinic tide intensification events are hypothesized to be an indicator of the presence of such baroclinic eddies. No significant density increase was observed at the deeper, offshore mooring, indicating a robust demarcation of the offshore extent of newly formed DSW. The relatively fresh water of the tidally mixed zone inshore of the shelf front was the precursor of the DSW, aided by the late-autumn offshore transition of the front.

Shcherbina, AY, Talley LD, Firing E, Hacker P.  2003.  Near-surface frontal zone trapping and deep upward propagation of internal wave energy in the Japan/East Sea. Journal of Physical Oceanography. 33:900-912.   10.1175/1520-0485(2003)33<900:nfztad>2.0.co;2   AbstractWebsite

The full-depth current structure in the Japan/East Sea was investigated using direct velocity measurements performed with lowered and shipboard acoustic current Doppler profilers. Rotary spectral analysis was used to investigate the three-dimensional energy distribution as well as wave polarization with respect to vertical wave-numbers, yielding information about the net energy propagation direction. Highly energetic near-inertial downward-propagating waves were found in localized patches along the southern edge of the subpolar front. Between 500- and 2500-m depth, the basin average energy propagation was found to be upward, with the maximum of relative difference between upward- and downward-propagating energy lying at about 1500-m depth. This difference was most pronounced in the southeastern part of the basin.

Shcherbina, AY, Talley LD, Rudnick DL.  2003.  Direct observations of North Pacific ventilation: Brine rejection in the Okhotsk Sea. Science. 302:1952-1955.   10.1126/science.1088692   AbstractWebsite

Brine rejection that accompanies ice formation in coastal polynyas is responsible for ventilating several globally important water masses in the Arctic and Antarctic. However, most previous studies of this process have been indirect, based on heat budget analyses or on warm-season water column inventories. Here, we present direct measurements of brine rejection and formation of North Pacific Intermediate Water in the Okhotsk Sea from moored winter observations. A steady, nearly linear salinity increase unambiguously caused by local ice formation was observed for more than a month.

Shcherbina, AY, Talley LD, Rudnick DL.  2004.  Dense water formation on the northwestern shelf of the Okhotsk Sea: 2. Quantifying the transports. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans. 109   10.1029/2003jc002197   AbstractWebsite

A combination of direct bottom mooring measurements, hydrographic and satellite observations, and meteorological reanalysis was used to estimate the rate of formation of Dense Shelf Water (DSW) due to brine rejection on the Okhotsk Sea northwestern shelf and the rate of export of DSW from this region. On the basis of remote sensing data, an estimated 8.6x10(12) m(3) of DSW was formed during the winter of 1999-2000, resulting in a mean annual production rate of 0.3 Sv. According to direct observations, the export rate of DSW during this period varied from negligibly small in autumn to 0.75+/-0.27 Sv in winter (January-February), to 0.34+/-0.12 Sv in spring (March-April). From these observations the mean annual export rate can be estimated to be 0.27 Sv. The same relationships used to obtain the integral estimates were also applied differentially using an advective approach incorporating realistic flow and heat flux fields, which allowed direct comparison with the moored observations. The comparison highlights the importance of along-shelf advection and cross-shelf eddy transport to the accurate parameterization of DSW formation.

Shi, JR, Xie SP, Talley LD.  2018.  Evolving relative importance of the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic in anthropogenic ocean heat uptake. Journal of Climate. 31:7459-7479.   10.1175/jcli-d-18-0170.1   AbstractWebsite

Ocean uptake of anthropogenic heat over the past 15 years has mostly occurred in the Southern Ocean, based on Argo float observations. This agrees with historical simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), where the Southern Ocean (south of 30 degrees S) accounts for 72% +/- 28% of global heat uptake, while the contribution from the North Atlantic north of 30 degrees N is only 6%. Aerosols preferentially cool the Northern Hemisphere, and the effect on surface heat flux over the subpolar North Atlantic opposes the greenhouse gas (GHG) effect in nearly equal magnitude. This heat uptake compensation is associated with weakening (strengthening) of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in response to GHG (aerosol) radiative forcing. Aerosols are projected to decline in the near future, reinforcing the greenhouse effect on the North Atlantic heat uptake. As a result, the Southern Ocean, which will continue to take up anthropogenic heat largely through the mean upwelling of water from depth, will be joined by increased relative contribution from the North Atlantic because of substantial AMOC slowdown in the twenty-first century. In the RCP8.5 scenario, the percentage contribution to global uptake is projected to decrease to 48% +/- 8% in the Southern Ocean and increase to 26% +/- 6% in the northern North Atlantic. Despite the large uncertainty in the magnitude of projected aerosol forcing, our results suggest that anthropogenic aerosols, given their geographic distributions and temporal trajectories, strongly influence the high-latitude ocean heat uptake and interhemispheric asymmetry through AMOC change.

Sloyan, BM, Talley LD, Chereskin TK, Fine R, Holte J.  2010.  Antarctic Intermediate Water and Subantarctic Mode Water Formation in the Southeast Pacific: The Role of Turbulent Mixing. Journal of Physical Oceanography. 40:1558-1574.   10.1175/2010jpo4114.1   AbstractWebsite

During the 2005 austral winter (late August-early October) and 2006 austral summer (February-mid-March) two intensive hydrographic surveys of the southeast Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean were completed. In this study the turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rate epsilon, diapycnal diffusivity kappa, and buoyancy flux J(b) are estimated from the CTD/O(2) and XCTD profiles for each survey. Enhanced kappa of O(10(-3) to 10(-4) m(2) s(-1)) is found near the Subantarctic Front (SAF) during both surveys. During the winter survey, enhanced kappa was also observed north of the "subduction front,'' the northern boundary of the winter deep mixed layer north of the SAF. In contrast, the summer survey found enhanced kappa across the entire region north of the SAF below the shallow seasonal mixed layer. The enhanced kappa below the mixed layer decays rapidly with depth. A number of ocean processes are considered that may provide the energy flux necessary to support the observed diffusivity. The observed buoyancy flux (4.0 x 10(-8) m(2) s(-3)) surrounding the SAF during the summer survey is comparable to the mean buoyancy flux (0.57 x 10(-8) m(2) s(-3)) associated with the change in the interior stratification between austral summer and autumn, determined from Argo profiles. The authors suggest that reduced ocean stratification during austral summer and autumn, by interior mixing, preconditions the water column for the rapid development of deep mixed layers and efficient Antarctic Intermediate Water and Subantarctic Mode Water formation during austral winter and early spring.