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Carter, BR, Feely RA, Wanninkhof R, Kouketsu S, Sonnerup RE, Pardo PC, Sabine CL, Johnson GC, Sloyan BM, Murata A, Mecking S, Tilbrook B, Speer K, Talley LD, Millero FJ, Wijffels SE, Macdonald AM, Gruber N, Bullister JL.  2019.  Pacific anthropogenic carbon between 1991 and 2017. Global Biogeochemical Cycles. 33:597-617.   10.1029/2018gb006154   AbstractWebsite

We estimate anthropogenic carbon (C-anth) accumulation rates in the Pacific Ocean between 1991 and 2017 from 14 hydrographic sections that have been occupied two to four times over the past few decades, with most sections having been recently measured as part of the Global Ocean Ship-based Hydrographic Investigations Program. The rate of change of C-anth is estimated using a new method that combines the extended multiple linear regression method with improvements to address the challenges of analyzing multiple occupations of sections spaced irregularly in time. The C-anth accumulation rate over the top 1,500 m of the Pacific increased from 8.8 (+/- 1.1, 1 sigma) Pg of carbon per decade between 1995 and 2005 to 11.7 (+/- 1.1) PgC per decade between 2005 and 2015. For the entire Pacific, about half of this decadal increase in the accumulation rate is attributable to the increase in atmospheric CO2, while in the South Pacific subtropical gyre this fraction is closer to one fifth. This suggests a substantial enhancement of the accumulation of C-anth in the South Pacific by circulation variability and implies that a meaningful portion of the reinvigoration of the global CO2 sink that occurred between similar to 2000 and similar to 2010 could be driven by enhanced ocean C-anth uptake and advection into this gyre. Our assessment suggests that the accuracy of C-anth accumulation rate reconstructions along survey lines is limited by the accuracy of the full suite of hydrographic data and that a continuation of repeated surveys is a critical component of future carbon cycle monitoring.

Holte, J, Talley L.  2009.  A New Algorithm for Finding Mixed Layer Depths with Applications to Argo Data and Subantarctic Mode Water Formation. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology. 26:1920-1939.   10.1175/2009jtecho543.1   AbstractWebsite

A new hybrid method for finding the mixed layer depth (MLD) of individual ocean profiles models the general shape of each profile, searches for physical features in the profile, and calculates threshold and gradient MLDs to assemble a suite of possible MLD values. It then analyzes the patterns in the suite to select a final MLD estimate. The new algorithm is provided in online supplemental materials. Developed using profiles from all oceans, the algorithm is compared to threshold methods that use the C. de Boyer Monte gut et al. criteria and to gradient methods using 13 601 Argo profiles from the southeast Pacific and southwest Atlantic Oceans. In general, the threshold methods find deeper MLDs than the new algorithm and the gradient methods produce more anomalous MLDs than the new algorithm. When constrained to using only temperature profiles, the algorithm offers a clear improvement over the temperature threshold and gradient methods; the new temperature algorithm MLDs more closely approximate the density algorithm MLDs than the temperature threshold and gradient MLDs. The algorithm is applied to profiles from a formation region of Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) and Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW). The density algorithm finds that the deepest MLDs in this region routinely reach 500 dbar and occur north of the A. H. Orsi et al. mean Subantarctic Front in the southeastern Pacific Ocean. The deepest MLDs typically occur in August and September and are congruent with the subsurface salinity minimum, a signature of AAIW.

Alley, RB, Marotzke J, Nordhaus WD, Overpeck JT, Peteet DM, Pielke RA, Pierrehumbert RT, Rhines PB, Stocker TF, Talley LD, Wallace JM.  2003.  Abrupt climate change. Science. 299:2005-2010.   10.1126/science.1081056   AbstractWebsite

Large, abrupt, and widespread climate changes with major impacts have occurred repeatedly in the past, when the Earth system was forced across thresholds. Although abrupt climate changes can occur for many reasons, it is conceivable that human forcing of climate change is increasing the probability of large, abrupt events. Were such an event to recur, the economic and ecological impacts could be large and potentially serious. Unpredictability exhibited near climate thresholds in simple models shows that some uncertainty will always be associated with projections. In light of these uncertainties, policy-makers should consider expanding research into abrupt climate change, improving monitoring systems, and taking actions designed to enhance the adaptability and resilience of ecosystems and economies.