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Book Chapter
Doney, SC, Ruckelshaus M, Duffy JE, Barry JP, Chan F, English CA, Galindo HM, Grebmeier JM, Hollowed AB, Knowlton N, Polovina J, Rabalais NN, Sydeman WJ, Talley LD.  2012.  Climate Change Impacts on Marine Ecosystems. Annual Review of Marine Science, Vol 4. 4( Carlson CA, Giovannoni SJ, Eds.).:11-37., Palo Alto: Annual Reviews   10.1146/annurev-marine-041911-111611   Abstract

In marine ecosystems, rising atmospheric CO2 and climate change are associated with concurrent shifts in temperature, circulation, stratification, nutrient input, oxygen content, and ocean acidification, with potentially wide-ranging biological effects. Population-level shifts are occurring because of physiological intolerance to new environments, altered dispersal patterns, and changes in species interactions. Together with local climate-driven invasion and extinction, these processes result in altered community structure and diversity, including possible emergence of novel ecosystems. Impacts are particularly striking for the poles and the tropics, because of the sensitivity of polar ecosystems to sea-ice retreat and poleward species migrations as well as the sensitivity of coral-algal symbiosis to minor increases in temperature. Midlatitude upwelling systems, like the California Current, exhibit strong linkages between climate and species distributions, phenology, and demography. Aggregated effects may modify energy and material flows as well as biogeochemical cycles, eventually impacting the overall ecosystem functioning and services upon which people and societies depend.

Journal Article
Johnson, KS, Plant JN, Dunne JP, Talley LD, Sarmiento JL.  2017.  Annual nitrate drawdown observed by SOCCOM profiling floats and the relationship to annual net community production. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans. 122:6668-6683.   10.1002/2017jc012839   AbstractWebsite

Annual nitrate cycles have been measured throughout the pelagic waters of the Southern Ocean, including regions with seasonal ice cover and southern hemisphere subtropical zones. Vertically resolved nitrate measurements were made using in situ ultraviolet spectrophotometer (ISUS) and submersible ultraviolet nitrate analyzer (SUNA) optical nitrate sensors deployed on profiling floats. Thirty-one floats returned 40 complete annual cycles. The mean nitrate profile from the month with the highest winter nitrate minus the mean profile from the month with the lowest nitrate yields the annual nitrate drawdown. This quantity was integrated to 200 m depth and converted to carbon using the Redfield ratio to estimate annual net community production (ANCP) throughout the Southern Ocean south of 30 degrees S. A well-defined, zonal mean distribution is found with highest values (3-4 mol C m(-2) yr(-1)) from 40 to 50 degrees S. Lowest values are found in the subtropics and in the seasonal ice zone. The area weighted mean was 2.9 mol C m(-2) yr(-1) for all regions south of 40 degrees S. Cumulative ANCP south of 50 degrees S is 1.3 Pg C yr(-1). This represents about 13% of global ANCP in about 14% of the global ocean area. Plain Language Summary This manuscript reports on 40 annual cycles of nitrate observed by chemical sensors on SOCCOM profiling floats. The annual drawdown in nitrate concentration by phytoplankton is used to assess the spatial variability of annual net community production in the Southern Ocean. This ANCP is a key component of the global carbon cycle and it exerts an important control on atmospheric carbon dioxide. We show that the results are consistent with our prior understanding of Southern Ocean ANCP, which has required decades of observations to accumulate. The profiling floats now enable annual resolution of this key process. The results also highlight spatial variability in ANCP in the Southern Ocean.

Delman, AS, Sprintall J, McClean JL, Talley LD.  2016.  Anomalous Java cooling at the initiation of positive Indian Ocean Dipole events. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans.   10.1002/2016JC011635   AbstractWebsite

Anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) cooling south of Java, initiated during May–July, is an important precursor to positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) events. As shown previously, the Java SST anomalies are spatially and temporally coincident with seasonal upwelling induced locally by southeasterly trade winds. However, we confirm earlier findings that interannual variability of the Java cooling is primarily driven by remote wind forcing from coastal Sumatra and the equatorial Indian Ocean (EqIO); we also find an influence from winds along the Indonesian Throughflow. The wind forcing in the EqIO and along coastal Sumatra does not initiate SST cooling locally due to a deep thermocline and thick barrier layer, but can force upwelling Kelvin waves that induce substantial surface cooling once they reach the seasonally shallower thermocline near the coast of Java. Satellite altimetry is used to obtain a Kelvin wave coefficient that approximates Kelvin wave amplitude variations along the equator. All pIOD years in the satellite record have anomalous levels of upwelling Kelvin wave activity along the equator during April–June, suggesting that upwelling waves during this season are necessary for pIOD event development. However, a change to wind-forced downwelling Kelvin waves during July–August can abruptly terminate cool Java SST anomalies and weaken the pIOD event. Upwelling Kelvin wave activity along the equator and wind stress anomalies west of Sumatra are both robust predictors of the IOD index later in the calendar year, while values of the Kelvin wave coefficient are the most reliable predictor of pIOD events specifically.

Williams, NL, Juranek LW, Feely RA, Johnson KS, Sarmiento JL, Talley LD, Dickson AG, Gray AR, Wanninkhof R, Russell JL, Riser SC, Takeshita Y.  2017.  Calculating surface ocean pCO(2) from biogeochemical Argo floats equipped with pH: An uncertainty analysis. Global Biogeochemical Cycles. 31:591-604.   10.1002/2016gb005541   AbstractWebsite

More than 74 biogeochemical profiling floats that measure water column pH, oxygen, nitrate, fluorescence, and backscattering at 10 day intervals have been deployed throughout the Southern Ocean. Calculating the surface ocean partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO(2sw)) from float pH has uncertainty contributions from the pH sensor, the alkalinity estimate, and carbonate system equilibrium constants, resulting in a relative standard uncertainty in pCO(2sw) of 2.7% (or 11 mu atm at pCO(2sw) of 400 mu atm). The calculated pCO(2sw) from several floats spanning a range of oceanographic regimes are compared to existing climatologies. In some locations, such as the subantarctic zone, the float data closely match the climatologies, but in the polar Antarctic zone significantly higher pCO(2sw) are calculated in the wintertime implying a greater air-sea CO2 efflux estimate. Our results based on four representative floats suggest that despite their uncertainty relative to direct measurements, the float data can be used to improve estimates for air-sea carbon flux, as well as to increase knowledge of spatial, seasonal, and interannual variability in this flux. Plain Language Summary The Southern Ocean is a key player in the global flow of carbon, yet it is hard to reach, and there are relatively few measurements there, especially in winter. Measuring the amount of carbon dioxide gas in seawater is key to advancing our understanding of the Southern Ocean. More than 74 robotic floats that use sensors to measure seawater properties have been deployed throughout the Southern Ocean, and each has a lifetime of around 5 years. It is currently not possible to directly measure carbon dioxide gas from these floats; however, it is possible to estimate carbon dioxide from things that the float can measure, like pH, a measure of ocean acidity. Here surface ocean carbon dioxide is estimated from several floats and compared to two ship-based estimates. In some locations, the floats closely match the existing estimates, but in other locations the floats see significantly higher surface ocean carbon dioxide in the wintertime, reinforcing the idea that the Southern Ocean's role in the global carbon cycle needs a closer look. Our results show that despite not measuring carbon dioxide directly, these floats will help scientists learn a lot about the Southern Ocean's part in the global flow of carbon.

Talley, LD, Feely RA, Sloyan BM, Wanninkhof R, Baringer MO, Bullister JL, Carlson CA, Doney SC, Fine RA, Firing E, Gruber N, Hansell DA, Ishii M, Johnson GC, Katsumata K, Key RM, Kramp M, Langdon C, Macdonald AM, Mathis JT, McDonagh EL, Mecking S, Millero FJ, Mordy CW, Nakano T, Sabine CL, Smethie WM, Swift JH, Tanhua T, Thurnherr AM, Warner MJ, Zhang J-Z.  2016.  Changes in Ocean Heat, Carbon Content, and Ventilation: A Review of the First Decade of GO-SHIP Global Repeat Hydrography. Annual Review of Marine Science. 8:185-215.   10.1146/annurev-marine-052915-100829   AbstractWebsite

Global ship-based programs, with highly accurate, full water column physical and biogeochemical observations repeated decadally since the 1970s, provide a crucial resource for documenting ocean change. The ocean, a central component of Earth's climate system, is taking up most of Earth's excess anthropogenic heat, with about 19% of this excess in the abyssal ocean beneath 2,000 m, dominated by Southern Ocean warming. The ocean also has taken up about 27% of anthropogenic carbon, resulting in acidification of the upper ocean. Increased stratification has resulted in a decline in oxygen and increase in nutrients in the Northern Hemisphere thermocline and an expansion of tropical oxygen minimum zones. Southern Hemisphere thermocline oxygen increased in the 2000s owing to stronger wind forcingand ventilation. The most recent decade of global hydrography has mapped dissolved organic carbon, a large, bioactive reservoir, for the first time and quantified its contribution to export production (∼20%) and deep-ocean oxygen utilization. Ship-based measurements also show that vertical diffusivity increases from a minimum in the thermocline to a maximum within the bottom 1,500 m, shifting our physical paradigm of the ocean's overturning circulation.

Marshall, J, Andersson A, Bates N, Dewar W, Doney S, Edson J, Ferrari R, Forget G, Fratantoni D, Gregg M, Joyce T, Kelly K, Lozier S, Lumpkin R, Maze G, Palter J, Samelson R, Silverthorne K, Skyllingstad E, Straneo F, Talley L, Thomas L, Toole J, Weller R, Climode G.  2009.  The CLIMODE FIELD CAMPAIGN Observing the Cycle of Convection and Restratification over the Gulf Stream. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 90:1337-1350.   10.1175/2009bams2706.1   AbstractWebsite
Delman, AS, McClean JL, Sprintall J, Talley LD, Yulaeva E, Jayne SR.  2015.  Effects of eddy vorticity forcing on the mean state of the Kuroshio Extension. Journal of Physical Oceanography. 45:1356-1375.   10.1175/jpo-d-13-0259.1   AbstractWebsite

Eddy-mean flow interactions along the Kuroshio Extension (KE) jet are investigated using a vorticity budget of a high-resolution ocean model simulation, averaged over a 13-yr period. The simulation explicitly resolves mesoscale eddies in the KE and is forced with air-sea fluxes representing the years 1995-2007. A mean-eddy decomposition in a jet-following coordinate system removes the variability of the jet path from the eddy components of velocity; thus, eddy kinetic energy in the jet reference frame is substantially lower than in geographic coordinates and exhibits a cross-jet asymmetry that is consistent with the baroclinic instability criterion of the long-term mean field. The vorticity budget is computed in both geographic (i. e., Eulerian) and jet reference frames; the jet frame budget reveals several patterns of eddy forcing that are largely attributed to varicose modes of variability. Eddies tend to diffuse the relative vorticity minima/maxima that flank the jet, removing momentum from the fast-moving jet core and reinforcing the quasi-permanent meridional meanders in the mean jet. A pattern associated with the vertical stretching of relative vorticity in eddies indicates a deceleration (acceleration) of the jet coincident with northward (southward) quasi-permanent meanders. Eddy relative vorticity advection outside of the eastward jet core is balanced mostly by vertical stretching of the mean flow, which through baroclinic adjustment helps to drive the flanking recirculation gyres. The jet frame vorticity budget presents a well-defined picture of eddy activity, illustrating along-jet variations in eddy-mean flow interaction that may have implications for the jet's dynamics and cross-frontal tracer fluxes.

Sloyan, BM, Wanninkhof R, Kramp M, Johnson GC, Talley LD, Tanhua T, McDonagh E, Cusack C, O'Rourke E, McGovern E, Katsumata K, Diggs S, Hummon J, Ishii M, Azetsu-Scott K, Boss E, Ansorge I, Perez FF, Mercier H, Williams MJM, Anderson L, Lee JH, Murata A, Kouketsu S, Jeansson E, Hoppema M, Campos E.  2019.  The Global Ocean Ship-Based Hydrographic Investigations Program (GO-SHIP): A platform for integrated multidisciplinary ocean science. Frontiers in Marine Science. 6   10.3389/fmars.2019.00445   AbstractWebsite

The Global Ocean Ship-Based Hydrographic Investigations Program (GO-SHIP) provides a globally coordinated network and oversight of 55 sustained decadal repeat hydrographic reference lines. GO-SHIP is part of the global ocean/climate observing systems (GOOS/GCOS) for study of physical oceanography, the ocean carbon, oxygen and nutrient cycles, and marine biogeochemistry. GO-SHIP enables assessment of the ocean sequestration of heat and carbon, changing ocean circulation and ventilation patterns, and their effects on ocean health and Earth's climate. Rapid quality control and open data release along with incorporation of the GO-SHIP effort in the Joint Technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology (JCOMM) in situ Observing Programs Support Center (JCOMMOPS) have increased the profile of, and participation in, the program and led to increased data use for a range of efforts. In addition to scientific discovery, GO-SHIP provides climate quality observations for ongoing calibration of measurements from existing and new autonomous platforms. This includes biogeochemical observations for the nascent array of biogeochemical (BGC)-Argo floats; temperature and salinity for Deep Argo; and salinity for the core Argo array. GO-SHIP provides the relevant suite of global, full depth, high quality observations and co-located deployment opportunities that, for the foreseeable future, remain crucial to maintenance and evolution of Argo's unique contribution to climate science. The evolution of GO-SHIP from a program primarily focused on physical climate to increased emphasis on ocean health and sustainability has put an emphasis on the addition of essential ocean variables for biology and ecosystems in the program measurement suite. In conjunction with novel automated measurement systems, ocean color, particulate matter, and phytoplankton enumeration are being explored as GO-SHIP variables. The addition of biological and ecosystem measurements will enable GO-SHIP to determine trends and variability in these key indicators of ocean health. The active and adaptive community has sustained the network, quality and relevance of the global repeat hydrography effort through societally important scientific results, increased exposure, and interoperability with new efforts and opportunities within the community. Here we provide key recommendations for the continuation and growth of GO-SHIP in the next decade.

Bourassa, MA, Gille ST, Bitz C, Carlson D, Cerovecki I, Clayson CA, Cronin MF, Drennan WM, Fairall CW, Hoffman RN, Magnusdottir G, Pinker RT, Renfrew IA, Serreze M, Speer K, Talley LD, Wick GA.  2013.  High-latitude ocean and sea ice surface fluxes: Challenges for climate research. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 94:403-423.   10.1175/bams-d-11-00244.1   AbstractWebsite

Polar regions have great sensitivity to climate forcing; however, understanding of the physical processes coupling the atmosphere and ocean in these regions is relatively poor. Improving our knowledge of high-latitute surface fluxes will require close collaboration among meteorologists, oceanographers, ice physicists, and climatologists, and between observationalists and modelers, as well as new combinations of in situ measurements and satellite remote sensing. This article describes the deficiencies in our current state of knowledge about air-sea surface fluxes in high latitutes, the sensitivity of various high-latitude processes to changes in surface fluxes, and the scientific requirements for surface fluxes at high latitutdes. We inventory the reasons, both logistical and physical, why existing flux products do not meet these requirements. Capturing an annual cycle in fluxes requires that instruments function through long periods of cold polar darkness, often far from support services, in situations subject to icing and extreme wave conditions. Furthermore, frequent cloud cover at high latitudes restricts the avilability of surface and atmospheric data from visible and infrared (IR) wavelength satellite sensors. Recommendations are made for improving high-latitude fluxes, including 1) acquiring more in situ observations, 2) developing improved satellite-flux-observing capabilities, 3) making observations and flux products more accessible, and 4) encouraging flux intercomparisons.

Carter, BR, Talley LD, Dickson AG.  2014.  Mixing and remineralization in waters detrained from the surface into Subantarctic Mode Water and Antarctic Intermediate Water in the southeastern Pacific. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans. 119:4001-4028.   10.1002/2013jc009355   AbstractWebsite

A hydrographic data set collected in the region and season of Subantarctic Mode Water and Antarctic Intermediate Water (SAMW and AAIW) formation in the southeastern Pacific allows us to estimate the preformed properties of surface water detrained into these water masses from deep mixed layers north of the Subantarctic Front and Antarctic Surface Water south of the front. Using 10 measured seawater properties, we estimate: the fractions of SAMW/AAIW that originate as surface source waters, as well as fractions that mix into these water masses from subtropical thermocline water above and Upper Circumpolar Deep Water below the subducted SAMW/AAIW; ages associated with the detrained surface water; and remineralization and dissolution rates and ratios. The mixing patterns imply that cabbeling can account for similar to 0.005-0.03 kg m(-3) of additional density in AAIW, and similar to 0-0.02 kg m(-3) in SAMW. We estimate a shallow depth (similar to 300-700 m, above the aragonite saturation horizon) calcium carbonate dissolution rate of 0.4 +/- 0.2 mmol CaCO3 kg(-1) yr(-1), a phosphate remineralization rate of 0.031 +/- 0.009 mu mol P kg(-1) yr(-1), and remineralization ratios of P:N:-O-2:C-org of 1:(15.5 +/- 0.6):(143 +/- 10):(104 +/- 22) for SAMW/AAIW. Our shallow depth calcium carbonate dissolution rate is comparable to previous estimates for our region. Our -O-2:P ratio is smaller than many global averages. Our model suggests neglecting diapycnal mixing of preformed phosphate has likely biased previous estimates of -O-2:P and C-org:P high, but that the C-org:P ratio bias may have been counteracted by a second bias in previous studies from neglecting anthropogenic carbon gradients.

Roemmich, D, Alford MH, Claustre H, Johnson K, King B, Moum J, Oke P, Owens WB, Pouliquen S, Purkey S, Scanderbeg M, Suga T, Wijffels S, Zilberman N, Bakker D, Baringer M, Belbeoch M, Bittig HC, Boss E, Calil P, Carse F, Carval T, Chai F, Conchubhair DO, D'Ortenzio F, Dall'Olmo G, Desbruyeres D, Fennel K, Fer I, Ferrari R, Forget G, Freeland H, Fujiki T, Gehlen M, Greenan B, Hallberg R, Hibiya T, Hosoda S, Jayne S, Jochum M, Johnson GC, Kang K, Kolodziejczyk N, Kortzinger A, Le Traon PY, Lenn YD, Maze G, Mork KA, Morris T, Nagai T, Nash J, Garabato AN, Olsen A, Pattabhi RR, Prakash S, Riser S, Schmechtig C, Schmid C, Shroyer E, Sterl A, Sutton P, Talley L, Tanhua T, Thierry V, Thomalla S, Toole J, Troisi A, Trull TW, Turton J, Velez-Belchi PJ, Walczowski W, Wang HL, Wanninkhof R, Waterhouse AF, Waterman S, Watson A, Wilson C, Wong APS, Xu JP, Yasuda I.  2019.  On the future of Argo: A global, full-depth, multi-disciplinary array. Frontiers in Marine Science. 6   10.3389/fmars.2019.00439   AbstractWebsite

The Argo Program has been implemented and sustained for almost two decades, as a global array of about 4000 profiling floats. Argo provides continuous observations of ocean temperature and salinity versus pressure, from the sea surface to 2000 dbar. The successful installation of the Argo array and its innovative data management system arose opportunistically from the combination of great scientific need and technological innovation. Through the data system, Argo provides fundamental physical observations with broad societally-valuable applications, built on the cost-efficient and robust technologies of autonomous profiling floats. Following recent advances in platform and sensor technologies, even greater opportunity exists now than 20 years ago to (i) improve Argo's global coverage and value beyond the original design, (ii) extend Argo to span the full ocean depth, (iii) add biogeochemical sensors for improved understanding of oceanic cycles of carbon, nutrients, and ecosystems, and (iv) consider experimental sensors that might be included in the future, for example to document the spatial and temporal patterns of ocean mixing. For Core Argo and each of these enhancements, the past, present, and future progression along a path from experimental deployments to regional pilot arrays to global implementation is described. The objective is to create a fully global, top-to-bottom, dynamically complete, and multidisciplinary Argo Program that will integrate seamlessly with satellite and with other in situ elements of the Global Ocean Observing System (Legler et al., 2015). The integrated system will deliver operational reanalysis and forecasting capability, and assessment of the state and variability of the climate system with respect to physical, biogeochemical, and ecosystems parameters. It will enable basic research of unprecedented breadth and magnitude, and a wealth of ocean-education and outreach opportunities.

Delman, AS, McClean JL, Sprintall J, Talley LD, Bryan FO.  2018.  Process-specific contributions to anomalous Java mixed layer cooling during positive IOD events. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans. 123:4153-4176.   10.1029/2017jc013749   AbstractWebsite

Negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) events first appear in the seasonal upwelling zone along the southern coast of Java during May-July. The evolution of anomalous SSTs in this coastal region is analyzed by computing a temperature budget using output from a strongly eddy-active ocean general circulation model. The seasonal cooling south of Java in May-July is driven by a reduction in incoming shortwave radiation and by vertical mixing, consistent with earlier studies in the region; however, the model budget also shows an advective contribution that drives anomalous cooling at the onset of pIOD events. To identify which process(es) are responsible for the anomalous advective cooling during pIOD events, a novel process index regression method is used to estimate the contributions of wind stress, equatorial Kelvin waves, mesoscale eddies, and Lombok Strait flow to anomalous cooling south of Java. Using this method, wind stress forcing along the west coast of Sumatra is found to make the most substantial contribution to anomalous cooling south of Java, with lesser contributions from equatorially sourced Kelvin waves and local wind stress. Mesoscale eddies redistribute heat from the Lombok Strait outflow, and have an anomalous warming effect on the eastern side of the upwelling region. The process-specific temperature budget south of Java highlights the importance of wind stress forcing west of Sumatra relative to equatorial and local forcing, and explains most of the mixed layer temperature anomaly evolution associated with advection during pIOD events. Plain Language Summary Climate variations from year to year in much of the Indian Ocean region are controlled by a phenomenon called the Indian Ocean Dipole, which is similar to El Nino but centered on the Indian Ocean basin. The positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole, or pIOD, typically brings drought conditions to Indonesia and unusually heavy rainfall to east Africa. These pIOD events are caused in part by unusually strong cooling in sea surface temperatures south of the Indonesian island of Java, but the series of events that causes this strong cooling has not been well understood previously. This paper uses the results obtained from a high-resolution ocean model, together with a new method for analyzing these results, to study exactly how much sea surface cooling (or warming) is caused by specific processes in the Java region. The study finds that changes in wind patterns adjacent to the Indonesian island of Sumatra can explain nearly all of the unusual cooling that develops south of Java in years when these pIOD events happen. The analysis method introduced in this paper may be adapted to study how processes in the ocean or atmosphere cause changes in the Earth's climate system.

Williams, NL, Feely RA, Sabine CL, Dickson AG, Swift JH, Talley LD, Russell JL.  2015.  Quantifying anthropogenic carbon inventory changes in the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean. Marine Chemistry. 174:147-160.   10.1016/j.marchem.2015.06.015   AbstractWebsite

The Southern Ocean plays a major role in mediating the uptake, transport, and long-term storage of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) into the deep ocean. Examining the magnitude and spatial distribution of this oceanic carbon uptake is critical to understanding how the earth's carbon system will react to continued increases in this greenhouse gas. Here, we use the extended multiple linear regression technique to quantify the total and anthropogenic change in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) along the S04P and P16S CLIVAR/U.S. Global Ocean Carbon and Repeat Hydrography Program lines south of 67 degrees S in the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean between 1992 and 2011 using discrete bottle measurements from repeat occupations. Along the S04P section, which is located in the seasonal sea ice zone south of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in the Pacific, the anthropogenic component of the DIC increase from 1992 to 2011 is mostly found in the Antarctic Surface Water (AASW, upper 100 m), while the increase in DIC below the mixed layer in the Circumpolar Deep Water can be primarily attributed to either a slowdown in circulation or decreased ventilation of deeper, high CO2 waters. In the AASW we calculate an anthropogenic increase in DIC of 12-18 mu mol kg(-1) and an average storage rate of anthropogenic CO2 of 0.10 +/- 0.02 mol m(-2) yr(-1) for this region compared to a global average of 0.5 +/- 0.2 mol m(-2) yr(-1). In surface waters this anthropogenic CO2 uptake results in an average pH decrease of 0.0022 +/- 0.0004 pH units yr(-1), a 0.47 +/- 0.10% yr(-1) decrease in the saturation state of aragonite (Omega(Aragonite)) and a 2.0 +/- 0.7 m yr(-1) shoaling of the aragonite saturation horizons (calculated for the Omega(Aragonite) = 1.3 contour). (C) 2015 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Ruckelshaus, M, Doney SC, Galindo HM, Barry JP, Chan F, Duffy JE, English CA, Gaines SD, Grebmeier JM, Hollowed AB, Knowlton N, Polovina J, Rabalais NN, Sydeman WJ, Talley LD.  2013.  Securing ocean benefits for society in the face of climate change. Marine Policy. 40:154-159.   10.1016/j.marpol.2013.01.009   AbstractWebsite

Benefits humans rely on from the ocean - marine ecosystem services - are increasingly vulnerable under future climate. This paper reviews how three valued services have, and will continue to, shift under climate change: (1) capture fisheries, (2) food from aquaculture, and (3) protection from coastal hazards such as storms and sea-level rise. Climate adaptation planning is just beginning for fisheries, aquaculture production, and risk mitigation for coastal erosion and inundation. A few examples are highlighted, showing the promise of considering multiple ecosystem services in developing approaches to adapt to sea-level rise, ocean acidification, and rising sea temperatures. Ecosystem-based adaptation in fisheries and along coastlines and changes in aquaculture practices can improve resilience of species and habitats to future environmental challenges. Opportunities to use market incentives - such as compensation for services or nutrient trading schemes - are relatively untested in marine systems. Relocation of communities in response to rising sea levels illustrates the urgent need to manage human activities and investments in ecosystems to provide a sustainable flow of benefits in the face of future climate change. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dong, S, Sprintall J, Gille ST, Talley L.  2008.  Southern Ocean mixed-layer depth from Argo float profiles. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans. 113   10.1029/2006jc004051   AbstractWebsite

Argo float profiles of temperature, salinity, and pressure are used to derive the mixed-layer depth (MLD) in the Southern Ocean. MLD is determined from individual profiles using both potential density and potential temperature criteria, and a monthly climatology is derived from individual MLDs using an objective mapping method. Quantitative data are available in the auxiliary material. The spatial structures of MLDs are similar in each month, with deep mixed layers within and just north of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) in the Pacific and Indian oceans. The deepest mixed layers are found from June to October and are located just north of the ACC where Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) and Subantarctic Mode Water ( SAMW) are formed. Examination of individual MLDs indicates that deep mixed layers ( MLD >= 400 m) from both the density and temperature criteria are concentrated in a narrow surface density band which is within the density range of SAMW. The surface salinity for these deep mixed layers associated with the SAMW formation are slightly fresher compared to historical estimates. Differences in air-sea heat exchanges, wind stress, and wind stress curl in the Pacific and Indian oceans suggest that the mode water formation in each ocean basin may be preconditioned by different processes. Wind mixing and Ekman transport of cold water from the south may assist the SAMW formation in the Indian Ocean. In the eastern Pacific, the formation of mode water is potentially preconditioned by the relative strong cooling and weak stratification from upwelling.

Tamsitt, V, Drake HF, Morrison AK, Talley LD, Dufour CO, Gray AR, Griffies SM, Mazloff MR, Sarmiento JL, Wang J, Weijer W.  2017.  Spiraling pathways of global deep waters to the surface of the Southern Ocean. Nature Communications. 8:172.   10.1038/s41467-017-00197-0   Abstract

Upwelling of global deep waters to the sea surface in the Southern Ocean closes the global overturning circulation and is fundamentally important for oceanic uptake of carbon and heat, nutrient resupply for sustaining oceanic biological production, and the melt rate of ice shelves. However, the exact pathways and role of topography in Southern Ocean upwelling remain largely unknown. Here we show detailed upwelling pathways in three dimensions, using hydrographic observations and particle tracking in high-resolution models. The analysis reveals that the northern-sourced deep waters enter the Antarctic Circumpolar Current via southward flow along the boundaries of the three ocean basins, before spiraling southeastward and upward through the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Upwelling is greatly enhanced at five major topographic features, associated with vigorous mesoscale eddy activity. Deep water reaches the upper ocean predominantly south of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, with a spatially nonuniform distribution. The timescale for half of the deep water to upwell from 30° S to the mixed layer is ~60–90 years.

Carter, BR, Feely RA, Mecking S, Cross JN, Macdonald AM, Siedlecki SA, Talley LD, Sabine CL, Millero FJ, Swift JH, Dickson AG, Rodgers KB.  2017.  Two decades of Pacific anthropogenic carbon storage and ocean acidification along Global Ocean Ship-lebased Hydrographic Investigations Program sections P16 and P02. Global Biogeochemical Cycles. 31:306-327.   10.1002/2016gb005485   AbstractWebsite

A modified version of the extended multiple linear regression (eMLR) method is used to estimate anthropogenic carbon concentration (C-anth) changes along the Pacific P02 and P16 hydrographic sections over the past two decades. P02 is a zonal section crossing the North Pacific at 30 degrees N, and P16 is a meridional section crossing the North and South Pacific at similar to 150 degrees W. The eMLR modifications allow the uncertainties associated with choices of regression parameters to be both resolved and reduced. Canth is found to have increased throughout the water column from the surface to similar to 1000 m depth along both lines in both decades. Mean column Canth inventory increased consistently during the earlier (1990s-2000s) and recent (2000s-2010s) decades along P02, at rates of 0.53 +/- 0.11 and 0.46 +/- 0.11 mol Cm-2 a(-1), respectively. By contrast, Canth storage accelerated from 0.29 +/- 0.10 to 0.45 +/- 0.11 mol Cm-2 a(-1) along P16. Shifts in water mass distributions are ruled out as a potential cause of this increase, which is instead attributed to recent increases in the ventilation of the South Pacific Subtropical Cell. Decadal changes along P16 are extrapolated across the gyre to estimate a Pacific Basin average storage between 60 degrees S and 60 degrees N of 6.1 +/- 1.5 PgC decade(-1) in the earlier decade and 8.8 +/- 2.2 PgC decade(-1) in the recent decade. This storage estimate is large despite the shallow Pacific Canth penetration due to the large volume of the Pacific Ocean. By 2014, Canth storage had changed Pacific surface seawater pH by -0.08 to -0.14 and aragonite saturation state by -0.57 to -0.82.