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Carter, BR, Feely RA, Mecking S, Cross JN, Macdonald AM, Siedlecki SA, Talley LD, Sabine CL, Millero FJ, Swift JH, Dickson AG, Rodgers KB.  2017.  Two decades of Pacific anthropogenic carbon storage and ocean acidification along Global Ocean Ship-lebased Hydrographic Investigations Program sections P16 and P02. Global Biogeochemical Cycles. 31:306-327.   10.1002/2016gb005485   AbstractWebsite

A modified version of the extended multiple linear regression (eMLR) method is used to estimate anthropogenic carbon concentration (C-anth) changes along the Pacific P02 and P16 hydrographic sections over the past two decades. P02 is a zonal section crossing the North Pacific at 30 degrees N, and P16 is a meridional section crossing the North and South Pacific at similar to 150 degrees W. The eMLR modifications allow the uncertainties associated with choices of regression parameters to be both resolved and reduced. Canth is found to have increased throughout the water column from the surface to similar to 1000 m depth along both lines in both decades. Mean column Canth inventory increased consistently during the earlier (1990s-2000s) and recent (2000s-2010s) decades along P02, at rates of 0.53 +/- 0.11 and 0.46 +/- 0.11 mol Cm-2 a(-1), respectively. By contrast, Canth storage accelerated from 0.29 +/- 0.10 to 0.45 +/- 0.11 mol Cm-2 a(-1) along P16. Shifts in water mass distributions are ruled out as a potential cause of this increase, which is instead attributed to recent increases in the ventilation of the South Pacific Subtropical Cell. Decadal changes along P16 are extrapolated across the gyre to estimate a Pacific Basin average storage between 60 degrees S and 60 degrees N of 6.1 +/- 1.5 PgC decade(-1) in the earlier decade and 8.8 +/- 2.2 PgC decade(-1) in the recent decade. This storage estimate is large despite the shallow Pacific Canth penetration due to the large volume of the Pacific Ocean. By 2014, Canth storage had changed Pacific surface seawater pH by -0.08 to -0.14 and aragonite saturation state by -0.57 to -0.82.

Billheimer, S, Talley LD.  2016.  Annual cycle and destruction of Eighteen Degree Water. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans. 121:6604-6617.   10.1002/2016jc011799   AbstractWebsite

Eighteen Degree Water (EDW), the subtropical mode water of the western North Atlantic, is a voluminous, weakly stratified upper ocean water mass that acts as a subsurface reservoir of heat, nutrients, and CO2. This thick layer persists throughout the year, but nearly half of its volume is dispersed or mixed away, diffusing its properties into the thermocline, from the time it outcrops in winter until it is renewed the following year. CTD observations from Argo profiling floats and acoustically tracked, isothermally bound profiling floats are used to quantify EDW destruction rates and investigate the relevant processes responsible for the large annual cycle of EDW. EDW destruction occurs primarily at the top of the EDW layer, with the highest EDW destruction rates occurring during early summer. Slower, steadier EDW destruction is observed in early winter. EDW destruction is dominated by 1-D vertical diffusion, while mesoscale, along-isopycnal stirring is also significant, explaining approximately 1/3 of the total annual EDW destruction. Destruction via along-isopycnal processes is more prevalent near the Gulf Stream than in the southern Sargasso Sea, due to higher potential vorticity gradients and enhanced mesoscale activity.

Delman, AS, Sprintall J, McClean JL, Talley LD.  2016.  Anomalous Java cooling at the initiation of positive Indian Ocean Dipole events. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans.   10.1002/2016JC011635   AbstractWebsite

Anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) cooling south of Java, initiated during May–July, is an important precursor to positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) events. As shown previously, the Java SST anomalies are spatially and temporally coincident with seasonal upwelling induced locally by southeasterly trade winds. However, we confirm earlier findings that interannual variability of the Java cooling is primarily driven by remote wind forcing from coastal Sumatra and the equatorial Indian Ocean (EqIO); we also find an influence from winds along the Indonesian Throughflow. The wind forcing in the EqIO and along coastal Sumatra does not initiate SST cooling locally due to a deep thermocline and thick barrier layer, but can force upwelling Kelvin waves that induce substantial surface cooling once they reach the seasonally shallower thermocline near the coast of Java. Satellite altimetry is used to obtain a Kelvin wave coefficient that approximates Kelvin wave amplitude variations along the equator. All pIOD years in the satellite record have anomalous levels of upwelling Kelvin wave activity along the equator during April–June, suggesting that upwelling waves during this season are necessary for pIOD event development. However, a change to wind-forced downwelling Kelvin waves during July–August can abruptly terminate cool Java SST anomalies and weaken the pIOD event. Upwelling Kelvin wave activity along the equator and wind stress anomalies west of Sumatra are both robust predictors of the IOD index later in the calendar year, while values of the Kelvin wave coefficient are the most reliable predictor of pIOD events specifically.

Hernandez-Guerra, A, Talley LD.  2016.  Meridional overturning transports at 30 degrees S in the Indian and Pacific Oceans in 2002-2003 and 2009. Progress in Oceanography. 146:89-120.   10.1016/j.pocean.2016.06.005   AbstractWebsite

The meridional circulation and transports at 30 degrees S in the Pacific and Indian Oceans for the years 20022003 and 2009 are compared, using GO-SHIP hydrographic section data with an inverse box model and several choices of constraints. Southward heat transport across the combined Indian-Pacific sections, reflecting net heating north of these sections, doubled from -0.7 +/- 0.2 PW in 2002-2003 to -1.4 +/- 0.1 PW in 2009 (negative sign is southward), with the increase concentrated in the Indian Ocean (-0.6 PW compared with similar to 0.2 PW in the Pacific), and was insensitive to model choices for the Indonesian Throughflow. Diagnosed net evaporation also more than doubled in the Indian Ocean, from 0.21-0.27 Sv in 2002-2003 to 0.51-0.58 in 2009, with a smaller but significant increase in net evaporation in the Pacific, from 0.06-0.08 Sv to 0.16-0.32 Sv. These increased heat and freshwater exports coincided with Indian Ocean warming, a shift in the Indian's shallow gyre overturning transport to lower densities, and an increase in southward Agulhas Current transport from 75 Sv in 2002 to 92 Sv in 2009. The Indian's deep overturn weakened from about 11 Sv in 2002 to 7 Sv in 2009. In contrast, the Pacific Ocean overturning circulation was, nearly unchanged from 2003 to 2009, independent of model within the uncertainties. The East Australian Current transport decreased only slightly, from 52 Sv to 46 Sv. The southward Pacific Deep Water transport was at a higher density than the southward Indian Deep Water transport in both years and all models, similar to prior results. Estimated diapycnal diffusivity and velocity are strongly enhanced near the ocean bottom and are higher farther up in the water column in the Indian than in the Pacific, likely extending the reach of Indian Ocean overturning up to shallower depths than in the Pacific. The horizontal distribution of transports in the Pacific at all depths changed notably from 2003 to 2009, despite the stability of its meridional overturning structure. The 2009 horizontal structure resembles a "bowed gyre"; the hydrographic section data show that this disturbance extends to the abyss and disrupts the Deep Western Boundary Current structure in the Southwest Pacific Basin. Satellite altimetry suggests association with slow westward Rossby wave propagation generated in the eastern Pacific, with no apparent effect on the net overturning circulation. The Indian Ocean's upper ocean horizontal structure was stable between the two years even though its shallow gyre overturning transports changed significantly. On the other hand, northward abyssal transports concentrated' in the central Indian Ocean (Crozet Basin) in 2002 shifted westward to the Mozambique and Madagascar Basins in 2009, although the Crozet Basin's Deep Western Boundary Current existed in both years. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Abernathey, RP, Cerovecki I, Holland PR, Newsom E, Mazlo M, Talley LD.  2016.  Water-mass transformation by sea ice in the upper branch of the Southern Ocean overturning. Nature Geoscience. 9:596-+.   10.1038/ngeo2749   AbstractWebsite

Ocean overturning circulation requires a continuous thermodynamic transformation of the buoyancy of seawater. The steeply sloping isopycnals of the Southern Ocean provide a pathway for Circumpolar Deep Water to upwell from mid depth without strong diapycnal mixing(1-3), where it is transformed directly by surface fluxes of heat and freshwater and splits into an upper and lower branch(4-6). While brine rejection from sea ice is thought to contribute to the lower branch(7), the role of sea ice in the upper branch is less well understood, partly due to a paucity of observations of sea-ice thickness and transport(8,9). Here we quantify the sea-ice freshwater flux using the Southern Ocean State Estimate, a state-of-the-art data assimilation that incorporates millions of ocean and ice observations. We then use the water-mass transformation framework(10) to compare the relative roles of atmospheric, sea-ice, and glacial freshwater fluxes, heat fluxes, and upper-ocean mixing in transforming buoyancy within the upper branch. We find that sea ice is a dominant term, with differential brine rejection and ice melt transforming upwelled Circumpolar Deep Water at a rate of similar to 22 x 10(6) m(3) s(-1). These results imply a prominent role for Antarctic sea ice in the upper branch and suggest that residual overturning and wind-driven sea-ice transport are tightly coupled.

Tamsitt, V, Talley LD, Mazloff MR, Cerovecki I.  2016.  Zonal variations in the Southern Ocean heat budget. Journal of Climate. 29:6563-6579.   10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0630.1   AbstractWebsite

The spatial structure of the upper ocean heat budget in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) is investigated using the ⅙°, data-assimilating Southern Ocean State Estimate (SOSE) for 2005–10. The ACC circumpolar integrated budget shows that 0.27 PW of ocean heat gain from the atmosphere and 0.38 PW heat gain from divergence of geostrophic heat transport are balanced by −0.58 PW cooling by divergence of Ekman heat transport and −0.09 PW divergence of vertical heat transport. However, this circumpolar integrated balance obscures important zonal variations in the heat budget. The air–sea heat flux shows a zonally asymmetric pattern of ocean heat gain in the Indian and Atlantic sectors and ocean heat loss in the Pacific sector of the ACC. In the Atlantic and Indian sectors of the ACC, the surface ocean heat gain is primarily balanced by divergence of equatorward Ekman heat transport that cools the upper ocean. In the Pacific sector, surface ocean heat loss and cooling due to divergence of Ekman heat transport are balanced by warming due to divergence of geostrophic heat advection, which is similar to the dominant heat balance in the subtropical Agulhas Return Current. The divergence of horizontal and vertical eddy advection of heat is important for warming the upper ocean close to major topographic features, while the divergence of mean vertical heat advection is a weak cooling term. The results herein show that topographic steering and zonal asymmetry in air–sea exchange lead to substantial zonal asymmetries in the heat budget, which is important for understanding the upper cell of the overturning circulation.

Williams, NL, Juranek LW, Johnson KS, Feely RA, Riser SC, Talley LD, Russell JL, Sarmiento JL, Wanninkhof R.  2016.  Empirical algorithms to estimate water column pH in the Southern Ocean. Geophysical Research Letters. 43:3415-3422.   10.1002/2016gl068539   AbstractWebsite

Empirical algorithms are developed using high-quality GO-SHIP hydrographic measurements of commonly measured parameters (temperature, salinity, pressure, nitrate, and oxygen) that estimate pH in the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean. The coefficients of determination, R-2, are 0.98 for pH from nitrate (pH(N)) and 0.97 for pH from oxygen (pH(Ox)) with RMS errors of 0.010 and 0.008, respectively. These algorithms are applied to Southern Ocean Carbon and Climate Observations and Modeling (SOCCOM) biogeochemical profiling floats, which include novel sensors (pH, nitrate, oxygen, fluorescence, and backscatter). These algorithms are used to estimate pH on floats with no pH sensors and to validate and adjust pH sensor data from floats with pH sensors. The adjusted float data provide, for the first time, seasonal cycles in surface pH on weekly resolution that range from 0.05 to 0.08 on weekly resolution for the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean.

Talley, LD, Feely RA, Sloyan BM, Wanninkhof R, Baringer MO, Bullister JL, Carlson CA, Doney SC, Fine RA, Firing E, Gruber N, Hansell DA, Ishii M, Johnson GC, Katsumata K, Key RM, Kramp M, Langdon C, Macdonald AM, Mathis JT, McDonagh EL, Mecking S, Millero FJ, Mordy CW, Nakano T, Sabine CL, Smethie WM, Swift JH, Tanhua T, Thurnherr AM, Warner MJ, Zhang J-Z.  2016.  Changes in Ocean Heat, Carbon Content, and Ventilation: A Review of the First Decade of GO-SHIP Global Repeat Hydrography. Annual Review of Marine Science. 8:185-215.   10.1146/annurev-marine-052915-100829   AbstractWebsite

Global ship-based programs, with highly accurate, full water column physical and biogeochemical observations repeated decadally since the 1970s, provide a crucial resource for documenting ocean change. The ocean, a central component of Earth's climate system, is taking up most of Earth's excess anthropogenic heat, with about 19% of this excess in the abyssal ocean beneath 2,000 m, dominated by Southern Ocean warming. The ocean also has taken up about 27% of anthropogenic carbon, resulting in acidification of the upper ocean. Increased stratification has resulted in a decline in oxygen and increase in nutrients in the Northern Hemisphere thermocline and an expansion of tropical oxygen minimum zones. Southern Hemisphere thermocline oxygen increased in the 2000s owing to stronger wind forcingand ventilation. The most recent decade of global hydrography has mapped dissolved organic carbon, a large, bioactive reservoir, for the first time and quantified its contribution to export production (∼20%) and deep-ocean oxygen utilization. Ship-based measurements also show that vertical diffusivity increases from a minimum in the thermocline to a maximum within the bottom 1,500 m, shifting our physical paradigm of the ocean's overturning circulation.

Williams, NL, Feely RA, Sabine CL, Dickson AG, Swift JH, Talley LD, Russell JL.  2015.  Quantifying anthropogenic carbon inventory changes in the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean. Marine Chemistry. 174:147-160.   10.1016/j.marchem.2015.06.015   AbstractWebsite

The Southern Ocean plays a major role in mediating the uptake, transport, and long-term storage of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) into the deep ocean. Examining the magnitude and spatial distribution of this oceanic carbon uptake is critical to understanding how the earth's carbon system will react to continued increases in this greenhouse gas. Here, we use the extended multiple linear regression technique to quantify the total and anthropogenic change in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) along the S04P and P16S CLIVAR/U.S. Global Ocean Carbon and Repeat Hydrography Program lines south of 67 degrees S in the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean between 1992 and 2011 using discrete bottle measurements from repeat occupations. Along the S04P section, which is located in the seasonal sea ice zone south of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in the Pacific, the anthropogenic component of the DIC increase from 1992 to 2011 is mostly found in the Antarctic Surface Water (AASW, upper 100 m), while the increase in DIC below the mixed layer in the Circumpolar Deep Water can be primarily attributed to either a slowdown in circulation or decreased ventilation of deeper, high CO2 waters. In the AASW we calculate an anthropogenic increase in DIC of 12-18 mu mol kg(-1) and an average storage rate of anthropogenic CO2 of 0.10 +/- 0.02 mol m(-2) yr(-1) for this region compared to a global average of 0.5 +/- 0.2 mol m(-2) yr(-1). In surface waters this anthropogenic CO2 uptake results in an average pH decrease of 0.0022 +/- 0.0004 pH units yr(-1), a 0.47 +/- 0.10% yr(-1) decrease in the saturation state of aragonite (Omega(Aragonite)) and a 2.0 +/- 0.7 m yr(-1) shoaling of the aragonite saturation horizons (calculated for the Omega(Aragonite) = 1.3 contour). (C) 2015 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Delman, AS, McClean JL, Sprintall J, Talley LD, Yulaeva E, Jayne SR.  2015.  Effects of eddy vorticity forcing on the mean state of the Kuroshio Extension. Journal of Physical Oceanography. 45:1356-1375.   10.1175/jpo-d-13-0259.1   AbstractWebsite

Eddy-mean flow interactions along the Kuroshio Extension (KE) jet are investigated using a vorticity budget of a high-resolution ocean model simulation, averaged over a 13-yr period. The simulation explicitly resolves mesoscale eddies in the KE and is forced with air-sea fluxes representing the years 1995-2007. A mean-eddy decomposition in a jet-following coordinate system removes the variability of the jet path from the eddy components of velocity; thus, eddy kinetic energy in the jet reference frame is substantially lower than in geographic coordinates and exhibits a cross-jet asymmetry that is consistent with the baroclinic instability criterion of the long-term mean field. The vorticity budget is computed in both geographic (i. e., Eulerian) and jet reference frames; the jet frame budget reveals several patterns of eddy forcing that are largely attributed to varicose modes of variability. Eddies tend to diffuse the relative vorticity minima/maxima that flank the jet, removing momentum from the fast-moving jet core and reinforcing the quasi-permanent meridional meanders in the mean jet. A pattern associated with the vertical stretching of relative vorticity in eddies indicates a deceleration (acceleration) of the jet coincident with northward (southward) quasi-permanent meanders. Eddy relative vorticity advection outside of the eastward jet core is balanced mostly by vertical stretching of the mean flow, which through baroclinic adjustment helps to drive the flanking recirculation gyres. The jet frame vorticity budget presents a well-defined picture of eddy activity, illustrating along-jet variations in eddy-mean flow interaction that may have implications for the jet's dynamics and cross-frontal tracer fluxes.

Whalen, CB, MacKinnon JA, Talley LD, Waterhouse AF.  2015.  Estimating the mean diapycnal mixing using a finescale strain parameterization. Journal of Physical Oceanography. 45:1174-1188.   10.1175/jpo-d-14-0167.1   AbstractWebsite

Finescale methods are currently being applied to estimate the mean turbulent dissipation rate and diffusivity on regional and global scales. This study evaluates finescale estimates derived from isopycnal strain by comparing them with average microstructure profiles from six diverse environments including the equator, above ridges, near seamounts, and in strong currents. The finescale strain estimates are derived from at least 10 nearby Argo profiles (generally <60 km distant) with no temporal restrictions, including measurements separated by seasons or decades. The absence of temporal limits is reasonable in these cases, since the authors find the dissipation rate is steady over seasonal time scales at the latitudes being considered (0 degrees-30 degrees and 40 degrees-50 degrees). In contrast, a seasonal cycle of a factor of 2-5 in the upper 1000m is found under storm tracks (30 degrees-40 degrees) in both hemispheres. Agreement between the mean dissipation rate calculated using Argo profiles and mean from microstructure profiles is within a factor of 2-3 for 96% of the comparisons. This is both congruous with the physical scaling underlying the finescale parameterization and indicates that the method is effective for estimating the regional mean dissipation rates in the open ocean.

Oka, E, Uehara K, Nakano T, Suga T, Yanagimoto D, Kouketsu S, Itoh S, Katsura S, Talley LD.  2014.  Synoptic observation of Central Mode Water in its formation region in spring 2003. Journal of Oceanography. 70:521-534.   10.1007/s10872-014-0248-2   AbstractWebsite

Hydrographic data east of Japan from five research cruises and Argo profiling floats in spring 2003 have been analyzed to examine the relationship of the formation of Central Mode Water (CMW) and Transition Region Mode Water (TRMW) in late winter 2003 to thermohaline fronts and mesoscale eddies. TRMW and the denser variety of CMW (D-CMW) were formed continuously just south of the subarctic frontal zone between 155 degrees E and 165 degrees W with little relation to eddies, suggesting that the absence of the permanent thermocline and halocline in this area is essential for the formation. The lighter variety of CMW (L-CMW) was formed south of the Kuroshio bifurcation front and east of 165 degrees E, partly in an anticyclonic eddy associated with the Kuroshio Extension. Some portion of D-CMW and L-CMW likely had been subducted to the permanent pycnocline by crossing southward the Kuroshio bifurcation front and the Kuroshio Extension front, respectively. In contrast, the formation of these waters in the western regions was inactive and was significantly different from that described previously using multiyear Argo float data. West of 155 degrees E, TRMW and D-CMW were formed only in two anticyclonic eddies that had been detached from the Kuroshio Extension 1-2 years ago. L-CMW was hardly formed west of 165 degrees E, which might be related to the upstream Kuroshio Extension being in its stable state characterized by low regional eddy activity.

Waterhouse, AF, MacKinnon JA, Nash JD, Alford MH, Kunze E, Simmons HL, Polzin KL, St Laurent LC, Sun OM, Pinkel R, Talley LD, Whalen CB, Huussen TN, Carter GS, Fer I, Waterman S, Garabato ACN, Sanford TB, Lee CM.  2014.  Global patterns of diapycnal mixing from measurements of the turbulent dissipation rate. Journal of Physical Oceanography. 44:1854-1872.   10.1175/jpo-d-13-0104.1   AbstractWebsite

The authors present inferences of diapycnal diffusivity from a compilation of over 5200 microstructure profiles. As microstructure observations are sparse, these are supplemented with indirect measurements of mixing obtained from(i) Thorpe-scale overturns from moored profilers, a finescale parameterization applied to (ii) shipboard observations of upper-ocean shear, (iii) strain as measured by profiling floats, and (iv) shear and strain from full-depth lowered acoustic Doppler current profilers (LADCP) and CTD profiles. Vertical profiles of the turbulent dissipation rate are bottom enhanced over rough topography and abrupt, isolated ridges. The geography of depth-integrated dissipation rate shows spatial variability related to internal wave generation, suggesting one direct energy pathway to turbulence. The global-averaged diapycnal diffusivity below 1000-m depth is O(10(-4))m(2) s(-1) and above 1000-m depth is O(10(-5))m(2) s(-1). The compiled microstructure observations sample a wide range of internal wave power inputs and topographic roughness, providing a dataset with which to estimate a representative global-averaged dissipation rate and diffusivity. However, there is strong regional variability in the ratio between local internal wave generation and local dissipation. In some regions, the depth-integrated dissipation rate is comparable to the estimated power input into the local internal wave field. In a few cases, more internal wave power is dissipated than locally generated, suggesting remote internal wave sources. However, at most locations the total power lost through turbulent dissipation is less than the input into the local internal wave field. This suggests dissipation elsewhere, such as continental margins.

Carter, BR, Talley LD, Dickson AG.  2014.  Mixing and remineralization in waters detrained from the surface into Subantarctic Mode Water and Antarctic Intermediate Water in the southeastern Pacific. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans. 119:4001-4028.   10.1002/2013jc009355   AbstractWebsite

A hydrographic data set collected in the region and season of Subantarctic Mode Water and Antarctic Intermediate Water (SAMW and AAIW) formation in the southeastern Pacific allows us to estimate the preformed properties of surface water detrained into these water masses from deep mixed layers north of the Subantarctic Front and Antarctic Surface Water south of the front. Using 10 measured seawater properties, we estimate: the fractions of SAMW/AAIW that originate as surface source waters, as well as fractions that mix into these water masses from subtropical thermocline water above and Upper Circumpolar Deep Water below the subducted SAMW/AAIW; ages associated with the detrained surface water; and remineralization and dissolution rates and ratios. The mixing patterns imply that cabbeling can account for similar to 0.005-0.03 kg m(-3) of additional density in AAIW, and similar to 0-0.02 kg m(-3) in SAMW. We estimate a shallow depth (similar to 300-700 m, above the aragonite saturation horizon) calcium carbonate dissolution rate of 0.4 +/- 0.2 mmol CaCO3 kg(-1) yr(-1), a phosphate remineralization rate of 0.031 +/- 0.009 mu mol P kg(-1) yr(-1), and remineralization ratios of P:N:-O-2:C-org of 1:(15.5 +/- 0.6):(143 +/- 10):(104 +/- 22) for SAMW/AAIW. Our shallow depth calcium carbonate dissolution rate is comparable to previous estimates for our region. Our -O-2:P ratio is smaller than many global averages. Our model suggests neglecting diapycnal mixing of preformed phosphate has likely biased previous estimates of -O-2:P and C-org:P high, but that the C-org:P ratio bias may have been counteracted by a second bias in previous studies from neglecting anthropogenic carbon gradients.

Talley, LD.  2013.  Closure of the Global Overturning Circulation Through the Indian, Pacific, and Southern Oceans: Schematics and Transports. Oceanography. 26:80-97. AbstractWebsite

The overturning pathways for the surface-ventilated North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) and Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) and the diffusively formed Indian Deep Water (IDW) and Pacific Deep Water (PDW) are intertwined. The global overturning circulation (GOC) includes both large wind-driven upwelling in the Southern Ocean and important internal diapycnal transformation in the deep Indian and Pacific Oceans. All three northern-source Deep Waters (NADW, IDW, PDW) move southward and upwell in the Southern Ocean. AABW is produced from the denser, salty NADW and a portion of the lighter, low oxygen IDW/PDW that upwells above and north of NADW. The remaining upwelled IDW/PDW stays near the surface, moving into the subtropical thermoclines, and ultimately sources about one-third of the NADW. Another third of the NADW comes from AABW upwelling in the Atlantic. The remaining third comes from AABW upwelling to the thermocline in the Indian-Pacific. Atlantic cooling associated with NADW formation (0.3 PW north of 32 degrees S; 1 PW = 1015 W) and Southern Ocean cooling associated with AABW formation (0.4 PW south of 32 degrees S) are balanced mostly by 0.6 PW of deep diffusive heating in the Indian and Pacific Oceans; only 0.1 PW is gained at the surface in the Southern Ocean. Thus, while an adiabatic model of NADW global overturning driven by winds in the Southern Ocean, with buoyancy added only at the surface in the Southern Ocean, is a useful dynamical idealization, the associated heat changes require full participation of the diffusive Indian and Pacific Oceans, with a basin-averaged diffusivity on the order of the Munk value of 10(-4) m(2) s(-1).

Bourassa, MA, Gille ST, Bitz C, Carlson D, Cerovecki I, Clayson CA, Cronin MF, Drennan WM, Fairall CW, Hoffman RN, Magnusdottir G, Pinker RT, Renfrew IA, Serreze M, Speer K, Talley LD, Wick GA.  2013.  High-latitude ocean and sea ice surface fluxes: Challenges for climate research. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 94:403-423.   10.1175/bams-d-11-00244.1   AbstractWebsite

Polar regions have great sensitivity to climate forcing; however, understanding of the physical processes coupling the atmosphere and ocean in these regions is relatively poor. Improving our knowledge of high-latitute surface fluxes will require close collaboration among meteorologists, oceanographers, ice physicists, and climatologists, and between observationalists and modelers, as well as new combinations of in situ measurements and satellite remote sensing. This article describes the deficiencies in our current state of knowledge about air-sea surface fluxes in high latitutes, the sensitivity of various high-latitude processes to changes in surface fluxes, and the scientific requirements for surface fluxes at high latitutdes. We inventory the reasons, both logistical and physical, why existing flux products do not meet these requirements. Capturing an annual cycle in fluxes requires that instruments function through long periods of cold polar darkness, often far from support services, in situations subject to icing and extreme wave conditions. Furthermore, frequent cloud cover at high latitudes restricts the avilability of surface and atmospheric data from visible and infrared (IR) wavelength satellite sensors. Recommendations are made for improving high-latitude fluxes, including 1) acquiring more in situ observations, 2) developing improved satellite-flux-observing capabilities, 3) making observations and flux products more accessible, and 4) encouraging flux intercomparisons.

Ruckelshaus, M, Doney SC, Galindo HM, Barry JP, Chan F, Duffy JE, English CA, Gaines SD, Grebmeier JM, Hollowed AB, Knowlton N, Polovina J, Rabalais NN, Sydeman WJ, Talley LD.  2013.  Securing ocean benefits for society in the face of climate change. Marine Policy. 40:154-159.   10.1016/j.marpol.2013.01.009   AbstractWebsite

Benefits humans rely on from the ocean - marine ecosystem services - are increasingly vulnerable under future climate. This paper reviews how three valued services have, and will continue to, shift under climate change: (1) capture fisheries, (2) food from aquaculture, and (3) protection from coastal hazards such as storms and sea-level rise. Climate adaptation planning is just beginning for fisheries, aquaculture production, and risk mitigation for coastal erosion and inundation. A few examples are highlighted, showing the promise of considering multiple ecosystem services in developing approaches to adapt to sea-level rise, ocean acidification, and rising sea temperatures. Ecosystem-based adaptation in fisheries and along coastlines and changes in aquaculture practices can improve resilience of species and habitats to future environmental challenges. Opportunities to use market incentives - such as compensation for services or nutrient trading schemes - are relatively untested in marine systems. Relocation of communities in response to rising sea levels illustrates the urgent need to manage human activities and investments in ecosystems to provide a sustainable flow of benefits in the face of future climate change. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cerovečki, I, Talley LD, Mazloff MR, Maze G.  2013.  Subantarctic Mode Water Formation, Destruction, and Export in the Eddy-Permitting Southern Ocean State Estimate. Journal of Physical Oceanography. 43:1485-1511.: American Meteorological Society   10.1175/JPO-D-12-0121.1   AbstractWebsite

Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) is examined using the data-assimilating, eddy-permitting Southern Ocean State Estimate, for 2005 and 2006. Surface formation due to air–sea buoyancy flux is estimated using Walin analysis, and diapycnal mixing is diagnosed as the difference between surface formation and transport across 30°S, accounting for volume change with time. Water in the density range 26.5 <σθ < 27.1 kg m−3 that includes SAMW is exported northward in all three ocean sectors, with a net transport of (18.2, 17.1) Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1; for years 2005, 2006); air–sea buoyancy fluxes form (13.2, 6.8) Sv, diapycnal mixing removes (−14.5, −12.6) Sv, and there is a volume loss of (−19.3, −22.9) Sv mostly occurring in the strongest SAMW formation locations. The most vigorous SAMW formation is in the Indian Ocean by air–sea buoyancy flux (9.4, 10.9) Sv, where it is partially destroyed by diapycnal mixing (−6.6, −3.1) Sv. There is strong export to the Pacific, where SAMW is destroyed both by air–sea buoyancy flux (−1.1, −4.6) Sv and diapycnal mixing (−5.6, −8.4) Sv. In the South Atlantic, SAMW is formed by air–sea buoyancy flux (5.0, 0.5) Sv and is destroyed by diapycnal mixing (−2.3, −1.1) Sv. Peaks in air–sea flux formation occur at the Southeast Indian and Southeast Pacific SAMWs (SEISAMWs, SEPSAMWs) densities. Formation over the broad SAMW circumpolar outcrop windows is largely from denser water, driven by differential freshwater gain, augmented or decreased by heating or cooling. In the SEISAMW and SEPSAMW source regions, however, formation is from lighter water, driven by differential heat loss.

Billheimer, S, Talley LD.  2013.  Near cessation of Eighteen Degree Water renewal in the western North Atlantic in the warm winter of 2011-2012. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans. 118:6838-6853.   10.1002/2013jc009024   AbstractWebsite

The winter of 2011-2012 was a particularly weak season for the renewal of "Eighteen Degree Water" (EDW), the Subtropical Mode Water of the western North Atlantic, as demonstrated by Argo and repeat hydrography. Weak, late winter buoyancy forcing produced shallower than usual winter mixed layers throughout the subtropical gyre, failing to thoroughly ventilate the underlying mode water, and can likely be attributed to the coinciding high, positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The only region where EDW was renewed was in the far northeastern Sargasso Sea where it is understood that the Gulf Stream plays a central role in formation; no EDW formed over the large regions of the gyre where deep winter mixed layers driven by surface buoyancy loss normally create EDW. The present investigation evaluates 2011-2012 winter buoyancy content anomalies, surface buoyancy fluxes, and advection of buoyancy via the Gulf Stream and compares them with the previous seven winters that exhibited more vigorous EDW formation. The weak 2011-2012 formation did not result from increased Gulf Stream heat advection, and was also not driven by preconditioning as the buoyancy content of the region prior to the onset of winter forcing was not unusually high. Rather, the weak formation resulted from climatologically weak surface cooling late in winter. The winter of 2007-2008 also experienced particularly weak EDW formation under similar conditions, including a high NAO and weak late winter surface cooling.

Talley, LD.  2013.  Hydrographic Atlas of the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE). Volume 4: Indian Ocean. ( and M. Sparrow CPJ, Ed.)., Southampton, U.K.: International WOCE Project Office
Talley, LD, Fryer G, Lumpkin R.  2013.  Oceanography. The Pacific Islands: Environment and Society. ( Rapaport M, Ed.)., Honolulu: University of Hawai'i Press
Holte, JW, Talley LD, Chereskin TK, Sloyan BM.  2013.  Subantarctic mode water in the southeast Pacific: Effect of exchange across the Subantarctic Front. Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans. 118:2052-2066.   10.1002/jgrc.20144   Abstract

This study considered cross-frontal exchange as a possible mechanism for the observed along-front freshening and cooling between the 27.0 and 27.3 kg m − 3 isopycnals north of the Subantarctic Front (SAF) in the southeast Pacific Ocean. This isopycnal range, which includes the densest Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) formed in this region, is mostly below the mixed layer, and so experiences little direct air-sea forcing. Data from two cruises in the southeast Pacific were examined for evidence of cross-frontal exchange; numerous eddies and intrusions containing Polar Frontal Zone (PFZ) water were observed north of the SAF, as well as a fresh surface layer during the summer cruise that was likely due to Ekman transport. These features penetrated north of the SAF, even though the potential vorticity structure of the SAF should have acted as a barrier to exchange. An optimum multiparameter (OMP) analysis incorporating a range of observed properties was used to estimate the cumulative cross-frontal exchange. The OMP analysis revealed an along-front increase in PFZ water fractional content in the region north of the SAF between the 27.1 and 27.3 kg m − 3 isopycnals; the increase was approximately 0.13 for every 15° of longitude. Between the 27.0 and 27.1 kg m − 3 isopycnals, the increase was approximately 0.15 for every 15° of longitude. A simple bulk calculation revealed that this magnitude of cross-frontal exchange could have caused the downstream evolution of SAMW temperature and salinity properties observed by Argo profiling floats.

Holte, JW, Talley LD, Chereskin TK, Sloyan BM.  2012.  The role of air-sea fluxes in Subantarctic Mode Water formation. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans. 117   10.1029/2011jc007798   AbstractWebsite

Two hydrographic surveys and a one-dimensional mixed layer model are used to assess the role of air-sea fluxes in forming deep Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) mixed layers in the southeast Pacific Ocean. Forty-two SAMW mixed layers deeper than 400 m were observed north of the Subantarctic Front during the 2005 winter cruise, with the deepest mixed layers reaching 550 m. The densest, coldest, and freshest mixed layers were found in the cruise's eastern sections near 77 degrees W. The deep. SAMW mixed layers were observed concurrently with surface ocean heat loss of approximately -200 W m(-2). The heat, momentum, and precipitation flux fields of five flux products are used to force a one-dimensional KPP mixed layer model initialized with profiles from the 2006 summer cruise. The simulated winter mixed layers generated by all of the forcing products resemble Argo observations of SAMW; this agreement also validates the flux products. Mixing driven by buoyancy loss and wind forcing is strong enough to deepen the SAMW layers. Wind-driven mixing is central to SAMW formation, as model runs forced with buoyancy forcing alone produce shallow mixed layers. Air-sea fluxes indirectly influence winter SAMW properties by controlling how deeply the profiles mix. The stratification and heat content of the initial profiles determine the properties of the SAMW and the likelihood of deep mixing. Summer profiles from just upstream of Drake Passage have less heat stored between 100 and 600 m than upstream profiles, and so, with sufficiently strong winter forcing, form a cold, dense variety of SAMW.

Doney, SC, Ruckelshaus M, Duffy JE, Barry JP, Chan F, English CA, Galindo HM, Grebmeier JM, Hollowed AB, Knowlton N, Polovina J, Rabalais NN, Sydeman WJ, Talley LD.  2012.  Climate Change Impacts on Marine Ecosystems. Annual Review of Marine Science, Vol 4. 4( Carlson CA, Giovannoni SJ, Eds.).:11-37., Palo Alto: Annual Reviews   10.1146/annurev-marine-041911-111611   Abstract

In marine ecosystems, rising atmospheric CO2 and climate change are associated with concurrent shifts in temperature, circulation, stratification, nutrient input, oxygen content, and ocean acidification, with potentially wide-ranging biological effects. Population-level shifts are occurring because of physiological intolerance to new environments, altered dispersal patterns, and changes in species interactions. Together with local climate-driven invasion and extinction, these processes result in altered community structure and diversity, including possible emergence of novel ecosystems. Impacts are particularly striking for the poles and the tropics, because of the sensitivity of polar ecosystems to sea-ice retreat and poleward species migrations as well as the sensitivity of coral-algal symbiosis to minor increases in temperature. Midlatitude upwelling systems, like the California Current, exhibit strong linkages between climate and species distributions, phenology, and demography. Aggregated effects may modify energy and material flows as well as biogeochemical cycles, eventually impacting the overall ecosystem functioning and services upon which people and societies depend.

Whalen, CB, Talley LD, MacKinnon JA.  2012.  Spatial and temporal variability of global ocean mixing inferred from Argo profiles. Geophysical Research Letters. 39:n/a-n/a.   10.1029/2012GL053196   AbstractWebsite

The influence of turbulent ocean mixing transcends its inherently small scales to affect large scale ocean processes including water-mass transformation, stratification maintenance, and the overturning circulation. However, the distribution of ocean mixing is not well described by sparse ship-based observations since this mixing is both spatially patchy and temporally intermittent. We use strain information from Argo float profiles in the upper 2,000 m of the ocean to generate over 400,000 estimates of the energy dissipation rate, indicative of ocean mixing. These estimates rely on numerous assumptions, and do not take the place of direct measurement methods. Temporally averaged estimates reveal clear spatial patterns in the parameterized dissipation rate and diffusivity distribution across all the oceans. They corroborate previous observations linking elevated dissipation rates to regions of rough topography. We also observe heightened estimated dissipation rates in areas of high eddy kinetic energy, as well as heightened diffusivity in high latitudes where stratification is weak. The seasonal dependence of mixing is observed in the Northwest Pacific, suggesting a wind-forced response in the upper ocean.