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2019
Mühle, J, Trudinger CM, Western LM, Rigby M, Vollmer MK, Park S, Manning AJ, Say D, Ganesan A, Steele LP, Ivy DJ, Arnold T, Li S, Stohl A, Harth CM, Salameh PK, McCulloch A, O'Doherty S, Park MK, Jo CO, Young D, Stanley KM, Krummel PB, Mitrevski B, Hermansen O, Lunder C, Evangeliou N, Yao B, Kim J, Hmiel B, Buizert C, Petrenko VV, Arduini J, Maione M, Etheridge DM, Michalopoulou E, Czerniak M, Severinghaus JP, Reimann S, Simmonds PG, Fraser PJ, Prinn RG, Weiss RF.  2019.  Perfluorocyclobutane (PFC-318, c-C4F8) in the global atmosphere. Atmos. Chem. Phys.. 19:10335-10359.: Copernicus Publications   10.5194/acp-19-10335-2019   Abstract

We reconstruct atmospheric abundances of the potent greenhouse gas c-C4F8 (perfluorocyclobutane, perfluorocarbon PFC-318) from measurements of in situ, archived, firn, and aircraft air samples with precisions of ∼1 %–2 % reported on the SIO-14 gravimetric calibration scale. Combined with inverse methods, we found near-zero atmospheric abundances from the early 1900s to the early 1960s, after which they rose sharply, reaching 1.66 ppt (parts per trillion dry-air mole fraction) in 2017. Global c-C4F8 emissions rose from near zero in the 1960s to 1.2±0.1 (1σ) Gg yr−1 in the late 1970s to late 1980s, then declined to 0.77±0.03 Gg yr−1 in the mid-1990s to early 2000s, followed by a rise since the early 2000s to 2.20±0.05 Gg yr−1 in 2017. These emissions are significantly larger than inventory-based emission estimates. Estimated emissions from eastern Asia rose from 0.36 Gg yr−1 in 2010 to 0.73 Gg yr−1 in 2016 and 2017, 31 % of global emissions, mostly from eastern China. We estimate emissions of 0.14 Gg yr−1 from northern and central India in 2016 and find evidence for significant emissions from Russia. In contrast, recent emissions from northwestern Europe and Australia are estimated to be small (≤1 % each). We suggest that emissions from China, India, and Russia are likely related to production of polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE, “Teflon”) and other fluoropolymers and fluorochemicals that are based on the pyrolysis of hydrochlorofluorocarbon HCFC-22 (CHClF2) in which c-C4F8 is a known by-product. The semiconductor sector, where c-C4F8 is used, is estimated to be a small source, at least in South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and Europe. Without an obvious correlation with population density, incineration of waste-containing fluoropolymers is probably a minor source, and we find no evidence of emissions from electrolytic production of aluminum in Australia. While many possible emissive uses of c-C4F8 are known and though we cannot categorically exclude unknown sources, the start of significant emissions may well be related to the advent of commercial PTFE production in 1947. Process controls or abatement to reduce the c-C4F8 by-product were probably not in place in the early decades, explaining the increase in emissions in the 1960s and 1970s. With the advent of by-product reporting requirements to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in the 1990s, concern about climate change and product stewardship, abatement, and perhaps the collection of c-C4F8 by-product for use in the semiconductor industry where it can be easily abated, it is conceivable that emissions in developed countries were stabilized and then reduced, explaining the observed emission reduction in the 1980s and 1990s. Concurrently, production of PTFE in China began to increase rapidly. Without emission reduction requirements, it is plausible that global emissions today are dominated by China and other developing countries. We predict that c-C4F8 emissions will continue to rise and that c-C4F8 will become the second most important emitted PFC in terms of CO2-equivalent emissions within a year or two. The 2017 radiative forcing of c-C4F8 (0.52 mW m−2) is small but emissions of c-C4F8 and other PFCs, due to their very long atmospheric lifetimes, essentially permanently alter Earth's radiative budget and should be reduced. Significant emissions inferred outside of the investigated regions clearly show that observational capabilities and reporting requirements need to be improved to understand global and country-scale emissions of PFCs and other synthetic greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances.

2018
Baggenstos, D, Severinghaus JP, Mulvaney R, McConnell JR, Sigl M, Maselli O, Petit JR, Grente B, Steig EJ.  2018.  A horizontal ice core from Taylor Glacier, its implications for Antarctic climate history, and an improved Taylor Dome ice core time scale. Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology. 33:778-794.   10.1029/2017pa003297   AbstractWebsite

Ice core records from Antarctica show mostly synchronous temperature variations during the last deglacial transition, an indication that the climate of the entire continent reacted as one unit to the global changes. However, a record from the Taylor Dome ice core in the Ross Sea sector of East Antarctica has been suggested to show a rapid warming, similar in style and synchronous with the Oldest Dryas-Bolling warming in Greenland. Since publication of the Taylor Dome record, a number of lines of evidence have suggested that this interpretation is incorrect and reflects errors in the underlying time scale. The issues raised regarding the dating of Taylor Dome currently linger unresolved, and the original time scale remains the de facto chronology. We present new water isotope and chemistry data from nearby Taylor Glacier to resolve the confusion surrounding the Taylor Dome time scale. We find that the Taylor Glacier record is incompatible with the original interpretation of the Taylor Dome ice core, showing that the warming in the area was gradual and started at similar to 18 ka BP (before 1950) as seen in other East Antarctic ice cores. We build a consistent, up-to-date Taylor Dome chronology from 0 to 60 ka BP by combining new and old age markers based on synchronization to other ice core records. The most notable feature of the new TD2015 time scale is a gas age-ice age difference of up to 12,000 years during the Last Glacial Maximum, by far the largest ever observed.

Bertler, NAN, Conway H, Dahl-Jensen D, Emanuelsson DB, Winstrup M, Vallelonga PT, Lee JE, Brook EJ, Severinghaus JP, Fudge TJ, Keller ED, Baisden WT, Hindmarsh RCA, Neff PD, Blunier T, Edwards R, Mayewski PA, Kipfstuhl S, Buizert C, Canessa S, Dadic R, Kjaer HA, Kurbatov A, Zhang DQ, Waddington ED, Baccolo G, Beers T, Brightley HJ, Carter L, Clemens-Sewall D, Ciobanu VG, Delmonte B, Eling L, Ellis A, Ganesh S, Golledge NR, Haines S, Handley M, Hawley RL, Hogan CM, Johnson KM, Korotkikh E, Lowry DP, Mandeno D, McKay RM, Menking JA, Naish TR, Noerling C, Ollive A, Orsi A, Proemse BC, Pyne AR, Pyne RL, Renwick J, Scherer RP, Semper S, Simonsen M, Sneed SB, Steig EJ, Tuohy A, Venugopal AU, Valero-Delgado F, Venkatesh J, Wang FT, Wang SM, Winski DA, Winton VHL, Whiteford A, Xiao CD, Yang J, Zhang X.  2018.  The Ross Sea Dipole - temperature, snow accumulation and sea ice variability in the Ross Sea region, Antarctica, over the past 2700 years. Climate of the Past. 14:193-214.   10.5194/cp-14-193-2018   AbstractWebsite

High-resolution, well-dated climate archives provide an opportunity to investigate the dynamic interactions of climate patterns relevant for future projections. Here, we present data from a new, annually dated ice core record from the eastern Ross Sea, named the Roosevelt Island Climate Evolution (RICE) ice core. Comparison of this record with climate reanalysis data for the 1979-2012 interval shows that RICE reliably captures temperature and snow precipitation variability in the region. Trends over the past 2700 years in RICE are shown to be distinct from those in West Antarctica and the western Ross Sea captured by other ice cores. For most of this interval, the eastern Ross Sea was warming (or showing isotopic enrichment for other reasons), with increased snow accumulation and perhaps decreased sea ice concentration. However, West Antarctica cooled and the western Ross Sea showed no significant isotope temperature trend. This pattern here is referred to as the Ross Sea Dipole. Notably, during the Little Ice Age, West Antarctica and the western Ross Sea experienced colder than average temperatures, while the eastern Ross Sea underwent a period of warming or increased isotopic enrichment. From the 17th century onwards, this dipole relationship changed. All three regions show current warming, with snow accumulation declining in West Antarctica and the eastern Ross Sea but increasing in the western Ross Sea. We interpret this pattern as reflecting an increase in sea ice in the eastern Ross Sea with perhaps the establishment of a modern Roosevelt Island polynya as a local moisture source for RICE.

2017
McConnell, JR, Burke A, Dunbar NW, Kohler P, Thomas JL, Arienzo MM, Chellman NJ, Maselli OJ, Sigl M, Adkins JF, Baggenstos D, Burkhart JF, Brook EJ, Buizert C, Cole-Dai J, Fudge TJ, Knorr G, Graf HF, Grieman MM, Iverson N, McGwire KC, Mulvaney R, Paris G, Rhodes RH, Saltzman ES, Severinghaus JP, Steffensen JP, Taylor KC, Winckler G.  2017.  Synchronous volcanic eruptions and abrupt climate change similar to 17.7 ka plausibly linked by stratospheric ozone depletion. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 114:10035-10040.   10.1073/pnas.1705595114   AbstractWebsite

Glacial-state greenhouse gas concentrations and Southern Hemisphere climate conditions persisted until similar to 17.7 ka, when a nearly synchronous acceleration in deglaciation was recorded in paleoclimate proxies in large parts of the Southern Hemisphere, with many changes ascribed to a sudden poleward shift in the Southern Hemisphere westerlies and subsequent climate impacts. We used high-resolution chemical measurements in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide, Byrd, and other ice cores to document a unique, similar to 192-y series of halogen-rich volcanic eruptions exactly at the start of accelerated deglaciation, with tephra identifying the nearby Mount Takahe volcano as the source. Extensive fallout from these massive eruptions has been found >2,800 km from Mount Takahe. Sulfur isotope anomalies and marked decreases in ice core bromine consistent with increased surface UV radiation indicate that the eruptions led to stratospheric ozone depletion. Rather than a highly improbable coincidence, circulation and climate changes extending from the Antarctic Peninsula to the subtropics-similar to those associated with modern stratospheric ozone depletion over Antarctica-plausibly link the Mount Takahe eruptions to the onset of accelerated Southern Hemisphere deglaciation similar to 17.7 ka.

2016
Goodge, JW, Severinghaus JP.  2016.  Rapid Access Ice Drill: a new tool for exploration of the deep Antarctic ice sheets and subglacial geology. Journal of Glaciology. 62:1049-1064.   10.1017/jog.2016.97   AbstractWebsite

A new Rapid Access Ice Drill (RAID) will penetrate the Antarctic ice sheets in order to create borehole observatories and take cores in deep ice, the glacial bed and bedrock below. RAID is a mobile drilling system to make multiple long, narrow boreholes in a single field season in Antarctica. RAID is based on a mineral exploration-type rotary rock-coring system using threaded drill pipe to cut through ice using reverse circulation of a non-freezing fluid for pressure-compensation, maintenance of temperature and removal of ice cuttings. Near the bottom of the ice sheet, a wireline latching assembly will enable rapid coring of ice, the glacial bed and bedrock below. Once complete, boreholes will be kept open with fluid, capped and available for future down-hole measurement of temperature gradient, heat flow, ice chronology and ice deformation. RAID is designed to penetrate up to 3300 m of ice and take cores in <200 hours, allowing completion of a borehole and coring in similar to 10 d at each site. Together, the rapid drilling capability and mobility of the system, along with ice-penetrating imaging methods, will provide a unique 3-D picture of interior and subglacial features of the Antarctic ice sheets.

2015
Buizert, C, Adrian B, Ahn J, Albert M, Alley RB, Baggenstos D, Bauska TK, Bay RC, Bencivengo BB, Bentley CR, Brook EJ, Chellman NJ, Clow GD, Cole-Dai J, Conway H, Cravens E, Cuffey KM, Dunbar NW, Edwards JS, Fegyveresi JM, Ferris DG, Fitzpatrick JJ, Fudge TJ, Gibson CJ, Gkinis V, Goetz JJ, Gregory S, Hargreaves GM, Iverson N, Johnson JA, Jones TR, Kalk ML, Kippenhan MJ, Koffman BG, Kreutz K, Kuhl TW, Lebar DA, Lee JE, Marcott SA, Markle BR, Maselli OJ, McConnell JR, McGwire KC, Mitchell LE, Mortensen NB, Neff PD, Nishiizumi K, Nunn RM, Orsi AJ, Pasteris DR, Pedro JB, Pettit EC, Price PB, Priscu JC, Rhodes RH, Rosen JL, Schauer AJ, Schoenemann SW, Sendelbach PJ, Severinghaus JP, Shturmakov AJ, Sigl M, Slawny KR, Souney JM, Sowers TA, Spencer MK, Steig EJ, Taylor KC, Twickler MS, Vaughn BH, Voigt DE, Waddington ED, Welten KC, Wendricks AW, White JWC, Winstrup M, Wong GJ, Woodruff TE, Members WDP.  2015.  Precise interpolar phasing of abrupt climate change during the last ice age. Nature. 520:661-U169.   10.1038/nature14401   AbstractWebsite

The last glacial period exhibited abrupt Dansgaard-Oeschger climatic oscillations, evidence of which is preserved in a variety of Northern Hemisphere palaeodimate archives'. Ice cores show that Antarctica cooled during the warm phases of the Greenland Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle and vice versa''', suggesting an interhemispheric redistribution of heat through a mechanism called the bipolar seesaw(4-6). Variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength are thought to have been important, but much uncertainty remains regarding the dynamics and trigger of these abrupt events'. Key information is contained in the relative phasing of hemispheric climate variations, yet the large, poorly constrained difference between gas age and ice age and the relatively low resolution of methane records from Antarctic ice cores have so far precluded methane-based synchronization at the required sub-centennial precision''''". Here we use a recently drilled high-accumulation Antarctic ice core to show that, on average, abrupt Greenland warming leads the corresponding Antarctic cooling onset by 218 +/- 92 years (2 sigma a) for DansgaardOeschger events, including the Bolling event; Greenland cooling leads the corresponding onset of Antarctic warming by 208 +/- 96 years. Our results demonstrate a north-to-south directionality of the abrupt climatic signal, which is propagated to the Southern Hemisphere high latitudes by oceanic rather than atmospheric processes. The similar interpolar phasing of warming and cooling transitions suggests that the transfer time of the climatic signal is independent of the AMOC background state. Our findings confirm a central role for ocean circulation in the bipolar seesaw and provide clear criteria for assessing hypotheses and model simulations of Dansgaard-Oeschger dynamics.

Mitchell, LE, Buizert C, Brook EJ, Breton DJ, Fegyveresi J, Baggenstos D, Orsi A, Severinghaus J, Alley RB, Albert M, Rhodes RH, McConnell JR, Sigl M, Maselli O, Gregory S, Ahn J.  2015.  Observing and modeling the influence of layering on bubble trapping in polar firn. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres. 120:2558-2574.   10.1002/2014jd022766   AbstractWebsite

Interpretation of ice core trace gas records depends on an accurate understanding of the processes that smooth the atmospheric signal in the firn. Much work has been done to understand the processes affecting air transport in the open pores of the firn, but a paucity of data from air trapped in bubbles in the firn-ice transition region has limited the ability to constrain the effect of bubble closure processes. Here we present high-resolution measurements of firn density, methane concentrations, nitrogen isotopes, and total air content that show layering in the firn-ice transition region at the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide ice core site. Using the notion that bubble trapping is a stochastic process, we derive a new parameterization for closed porosity that incorporates the effects of layering in a steady state firn modeling approach. We include the process of bubble trapping into an open-porosity firn air transport model and obtain a good fit to the firn core data. We find that layering broadens the depth range over which bubbles are trapped, widens the modeled gas age distribution of air in closed bubbles, reduces the mean gas age of air in closed bubbles, and introduces stratigraphic irregularities in the gas age scale that have a peak-to-peak variability of 10 years at WAIS Divide. For a more complete understanding of gas occlusion and its impact on ice core records, we suggest that this experiment be repeated at sites climatically different from WAIS Divide, for example, on the East Antarctic plateau.

2014
Seierstad, IK, Abbott PM, Bigler M, Blunier T, Bourne AJ, Brook E, Buchardt SL, Buizert C, Clausen HB, Cook E, Dahl-Jensen D, Davies SM, Guillevic M, Johnsen SJ, Pedersen DS, Popp TJ, Rasmussen SO, Severinghaus JP, Svensson A, Vinther BM.  2014.  Consistently dated records from the Greenland GRIP, GISP2 and NGRIP ice cores for the past 104 ka reveal regional millennial-scale delta O-18 gradients with possible Heinrich event imprint. Quaternary Science Reviews. 106:29-46.   10.1016/j.quascirev.2014.10.032   AbstractWebsite

We present a synchronization of the NGRIP, GRIP and GISP2 ice cores onto a master chronology extending back to 104 ka before present, providing a consistent chronological framework for these three Greenland records. The synchronization aligns distinct peaks in volcanic proxy records and other impurity records (chemo-stratigraphic matching) and assumes that these layers of elevated impurity content represent the same, instantaneous event in the past at all three sites. More than 900 marker horizons between the three cores have been identified and our matching is independently confirmed by 24 new and previously identified volcanic ash (tephra) tie-points. Using the reference horizons, we transfer the widely used Greenland ice-core chronology, GICC05modelext, to the two Summit cores, GRIP and GISP2. Furthermore, we provide gas chronologies for the Summit cores that are consistent with the GICC05modelext timescale by utilizing both existing and new gas data (CH4 concentration and delta N-15 of N-2). We infer that the accumulation contrast between the stadial and interstadial phases of the glacial period was -10% greater at Summit compared to at NGRIP. The delta O-18 temperature-proxy records from NGRIP, GRIP, and GISP2 are generally very similar and display synchronous behaviour at climate transitions. The 1180 differences between Summit and NGRIP, however, changed slowly over the Last Glacial Interglacial cycle and also underwent abrupt millennial-to-centennial-scale variations. We suggest that this observed latitudinal delta O-18 gradient in Greenland during the glacial period is the result of 1) relatively higher degree of precipitation with a Pacific signature at NGRIP, 2) increased summer bias in precipitation at Summit, and 3) enhanced Rayleigh distillation due to an increased source-to-site distance and a potentially larger source-to-site temperature gradient. We propose that these processes are governed by changes in the North American Ice Sheet (NAIS) volume and North Atlantic sea-ice extent and/or sea-surface temperatures (SST) on orbital timescales, and that changing sea-ice extent and SSTs are the driving mechanisms on shorter timescales. Finally, we observe that maxima in the Summit NGRIP delta O-18 difference are roughly coincident with prominent Heinrich events. This suggests that the climatic reorganization that takes place during stadials with Heinrich events, possibly driven by a southward expansion of sea ice and low SSTs in the North Atlantic, are recorded in the ice-core records. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Buizert, C, Gkinis V, Severinghaus JP, He F, Lecavalier BS, Kindler P, Leuenberger M, Carlson AE, Vinther B, Masson-Delmotte V, White JWC, Liu ZY, Otto-Bliesner B, Brook EJ.  2014.  Greenland temperature response to climate forcing during the last deglaciation. Science. 345:1177-1180.   10.1126/science.1254961   AbstractWebsite

Greenland ice core water isotopic composition (delta O-18) provides detailed evidence for abrupt climate changes but is by itself insufficient for quantitative reconstruction of past temperatures and their spatial patterns. We investigate Greenland temperature evolution during the last deglaciation using independent reconstructions from three ice cores and simulations with a coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model. Contrary to the traditional delta O-18 interpretation, the Younger Dryas period was 4.5 degrees +/- 2 degrees C warmer than the Oldest Dryas, due to increased carbon dioxide forcing and summer insolation. The magnitude of abrupt temperature changes is larger in central Greenland (9 degrees to 14 degrees C) than in the northwest (5 degrees to 9 degrees C), fingerprinting a North Atlantic origin. Simulated changes in temperature seasonality closely track changes in the Atlantic overturning strength and support the hypothesis that abrupt climate change is mostly a winter phenomenon.

Rosen, JL, Brook EJ, Severinghaus JP, Blunier T, Mitchell LE, Lee JE, Edwards JS, Gkinis V.  2014.  An ice core record of near-synchronous global climate changes at the Bolling transition. Nature Geoscience. 7:459-463.   10.1038/ngeo2147   AbstractWebsite

The abrupt warming that initiated the Bolling-Allerod interstadial was the penultimate warming in a series of climate variations known as Dansgaard-Oeschger events. Despite the clear expression of this transition in numerous palaeoclimate records, the relative timing of climate shifts in different regions of the world and their causes are subject to debate. Here we explore the phasing of global climate change at the onset of the Bolling-Allerod using air preserved in bubbles in the North Greenland Eemian ice core. Specifically, we measured methane concentrations, which act as a proxy for low-latitude climate, and the N-15/N-14 ratio of N-2, which reflects Greenland surface temperature, over the same interval of time. We use an atmospheric box model and a firn air model to account for potential uncertainties in the data, and find that changes in Greenland temperature and atmospheric methane emissions at the Bolling onset occurred essentially synchronously, with temperature leading by 4.5(-24)(+21) years. We cannot exclude the possibility that tropical climate could iag changing methane concentrations by up to several decades, if the initial methane rise came from boreal sources alone. However, because even boreal methane-producing regions lie far from Greenland, we conclude that the mechanism that drove abrupt change at this time must be capable of rapidly transmitting climate changes across the globe.

2013
Rasmussen, SO, Abbott PM, Blunier T, Bourne AJ, Brook E, Buchardt SL, Buizert C, Chappellaz J, Clausen HB, Cook E, Dahl-Jensen D, Davies SM, Guillevic M, Kipfstuhl S, Laepple T, Seierstad IK, Severinghaus JP, Steffensen JP, Stowasser C, Svensson A, Vallelonga P, Vinther BM, Wilhelms F, Winstrup M.  2013.  A first chronology for the North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling (NEEM) ice core. Climate of the Past. 9:2713-2730.   10.5194/cp-9-2713-2013   AbstractWebsite

A stratigraphy-based chronology for the North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling (NEEM) ice core has been derived by transferring the annual layer counted Greenland Ice Core Chronology 2005 (GICC05) and its model extension (GICC05modelext) from the NGRIP core to the NEEM core using 787 match points of mainly volcanic origin identified in the electrical conductivity measurement (ECM) and dielectrical profiling (DEP) records. Tephra horizons found in both the NEEM and NGRIP ice cores are used to test the matching based on ECM and DEP and provide five additional horizons used for the timescale transfer. A thinning function reflecting the accumulated strain along the core has been determined using a Dansgaard-Johnsen flow model and an isotope-dependent accumulation rate parameterization. Flow parameters are determined from Monte Carlo analysis constrained by the observed depth-age horizons. In order to construct a chronology for the gas phase, the ice age-gas age difference (Delta age) has been reconstructed using a coupled firn densification-heat diffusion model. Temperature and accumulation inputs to the Delta age model, initially derived from the water isotope proxies, have been adjusted to optimize the fit to timing constraints from delta N-15 of nitrogen and high-resolution methane data during the abrupt onset of Greenland interstadials. The ice and gas chronologies and the corresponding thinning function represent the first chronology for the NEEM core, named GICC05modelext-NEEM-1. Based on both the flow and firn modelling results, the accumulation history for the NEEM site has been reconstructed. Together, the timescale and accumulation reconstruction provide the necessary basis for further analysis of the records from NEEM.

Fischer, H, Severinghaus J, Brook E, Wolff E, Albert M, Alemany O, Arthern R, Bentley C, Blankenship D, Chappellaz J, Creyts T, Dahl-Jensen D, Dinn M, Frezzotti M, Fujita S, Gallee H, Hindmarsh R, Hudspeth D, Jugie G, Kawamura K, Lipenkov V, Miller H, Mulvaney R, Parrenin F, Pattyn F, Ritz C, Schwander J, Steinhage D, van Ommen T, Wilhelms F.  2013.  Where to find 1.5 million yr old ice for the IPICS "Oldest-Ice" ice core. Climate of the Past. 9:2489-2505.   10.5194/cp-9-2489-2013   AbstractWebsite

The recovery of a 1.5 million yr long ice core from Antarctica represents a keystone of our understanding of Quaternary climate, the progression of glaciation over this time period and the role of greenhouse gas cycles in this progression. Here we tackle the question of where such ice may still be found in the Antarctic ice sheet. We can show that such old ice is most likely to exist in the plateau area of the East Antarctic ice sheet (EAIS) without stratigraphic disturbance and should be able to be recovered after careful pre-site selection studies. Based on a simple ice and heat flow model and glaciological observations, we conclude that positions in the vicinity of major domes and saddle position on the East Antarctic Plateau will most likely have such old ice in store and represent the best study areas for dedicated reconnaissance studies in the near future. In contrast to previous ice core drill site selections, however, we strongly suggest significantly reduced ice thickness to avoid bottom melting. For example for the geothermal heat flux and accumulation conditions at Dome C, an ice thickness lower than but close to about 2500m would be required to find 1.5 Myr old ice (i.e., more than 700m less than at the current EPICA Dome C drill site). Within this constraint, the resolution of an Oldest-Ice record and the distance of such old ice to the bedrock should be maximized to avoid ice flow disturbances, for example, by finding locations with minimum geothermal heat flux. As the geothermal heat flux is largely unknown for the EAIS, this parameter has to be carefully determined beforehand. In addition, detailed bedrock topography and ice flow history has to be reconstructed for candidates of an Oldest-Ice ice coring site. Finally, we argue strongly for rapid access drilling before any full, deep ice coring activity commences to bring datable samples to the surface and to allow an age check of the oldest ice.

2009
Grachev, AM, Brook EJ, Severinghaus JP, Pisias NG.  2009.  Relative timing and variability of atmospheric methane and GISP2 oxygen isotopes between 68 and 86 ka. Global Biogeochemical Cycles. 23   10.1029/2008gb003330   AbstractWebsite

The global biogeochemical cycle of methane has received wide attention because of methane's role as a greenhouse gas. Measurements of methane in air trapped in Greenland ice cores provide a high-resolution record of methane levels in the atmosphere over the past similar to 100 ka, providing clues about what controls the methane cycle on geologic timescales. Remarkable similarity between local temperature recorded in Greenland ice cores and changes in global methane concentrations has been noted in previous studies, with the inference that the local temperature variations have global significance, but the resolution of sampling and measurement precision limited fine-scale comparison of these variables. In this work a higher-precision (similar to 2 ppb) methane data set was obtained from the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP2) ice core for the time interval between 86 and 68 ka, encompassing three large abrupt warming events early in the last glacial period: Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events 19, 20, and 21. The new data set consists of duplicate measurements at 158 depths, with average time resolution of 120 years. Such detailed measurements over D-O 21, the longest in Greenland records, have not yet been reported for other ice cores. The new data set documents short-term variability (similar to 20 ppb typical amplitude), which is remarkably persistent, and in many cases similar features are observed in the most detailed published delta(18)O(ice) record. High-precision GISP2 delta(15)N data show that changes in Greenland temperature are synchronous with the methane variations at the onset of D-O events 19, 20, and 21, supporting previous results from the Greenland Ice Core Project ice core for D-O 19 and 20. Cross-spectral analysis quantifies the extremely close similarity between the new methane record and the delta(18)O(ice) record. Because methane sources are widely distributed over the globe, this work further validates delta(18)O(ice) at Greenland summit as a geographically broad climate indicator on millennial to multicentennial timescales.

2007
Grachev, AM, Brook EJ, Severinghaus JP.  2007.  Abrupt changes in atmospheric methane at the MIS 5b-5a transition. Geophysical Research Letters. 34   10.1029/2007gl029799   AbstractWebsite

New ice core analyses show that the prominent rise in atmospheric methane concentration at Dansgaard-Oeschger event 21 was interrupted by a century-long 20% decline, which was previously unrecognized. The reversal was found in a new similar to 100-year resolution study of methane in the GISP2 ice core, encompassing the beginning of D-O event 21, which also corresponds to the transition from MIS 5b to 5a. Although a corresponding reversal (within age uncertainty) is observed in climate proxies measured in GISP2 ice, including delta O-18(ice), electrical conductivity, light scattering, and several ions, this feature has not been discussed previously. Abrupt changes in methane are paralleled by changes in delta N-15 of trapped air, a quantity that reflects local temperature change at Greenland summit. The reversal described here supports the hypothesis that climate can be unstable during major transitions, as was previously described for the last deglaciation.

Kobashi, T, Severinghaus JP, Brook EJ, Barnola JM, Grachev AM.  2007.  Precise timing and characterization of abrupt climate change 8200 years ago from air trapped in polar ice. Quaternary Science Reviews. 26:1212-1222.   10.1016/j.quascirev.2007.01.009   AbstractWebsite

How fast and how much climate can change has significant implications for concerns about future climate changes and their potential impacts on society. An abrupt climate change 8200 years ago (8.2 ka event) provides a test case to understand possible future climatic variability. Here, methane concentration (taken as an indicator for terrestrial hydrology) and nitrogen isotopes (Greenland temperature) in trapped air in a Greenland ice core (GISP2) are employed to scrutinize the evolution of the 8.2 ka event. The synchronous change in methane and nitrogen implies that the 8.2 ka event was a synchronous event (within +/- 4 years) at a hemispheric scale, as indicated by recent climate model results [Legrande, A. N., Schmidt, G. A., Shindell, D. T., Field, C. V., Miller, R. L., Koch, D. M., Faluvegi, G., Hoffmann, G., 2006. Consistent simulations of multiple proxy responses to an abrupt climate change event. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 103, 837-842]. The event began with a large-scale general cooling and drying around similar to 8175 +/- 30 years BP (Before Present, where Present is 1950 AD). Greenland temperature cooled by 3.3 +/- 1.1 degrees C (decadal average) in less than similar to 20 years, and atmospheric methane concentration decreased by similar to 80 +/- 25 ppb over similar to 40 years, corresponding to a 15 +/- 5% emission reduction. Hemispheric scale cooling and drying.. inferred from many paleoclimate proxies, likely contributed to this emission reduction. In central Greenland, the coldest period lasted for similar to 60 years, interrupted by a milder interval of a few decades, and temperature subsequently warmed in several steps over similar to 70 years. The total duration of the 8.2 ka event was roughly 150 years. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Kawamura, K, Parrenin F, Lisiecki L, Uemura R, Vimeux F, Severinghaus JP, Hutterli MA, Nakazawa T, Aoki S, Jouzel J, Raymo ME, Matsumoto K, Nakata H, Motoyama H, Fujita S, Goto-Azuma K, Fujii Y, Watanabe O.  2007.  Northern Hemisphere forcing of climatic cycles in Antarctica over the past 360,000 years. Nature. 448:912-U4.   10.1038/nature06015   AbstractWebsite

The Milankovitch theory of climate change proposes that glacial interglacial cycles are driven by changes in summer insolation at high northern latitudes(1). The timing of climate change in the Southern Hemisphere at glacial-interglacial transitions (which are known as terminations) relative to variations in summer insolation in the Northern Hemisphere is an important test of this hypothesis. So far, it has only been possible to apply this test to the most recent termination(2,3), because the dating uncertainty associated with older terminations is too large to allow phase relationships to be determined. Here we present a new chronology of Antarctic climate change over the past 360,000 years that is based on the ratio of oxygen to nitrogen molecules in air trapped in the Dome Fuji and Vostok ice cores(4,5). This ratio is a proxy for local summer insolation(5), and thus allows the chronology to be constructed by orbital tuning without the need to assume a lag between a climate record and an orbital parameter. The accuracy of the chronology allows us to examine the phase relationships between climate records from the ice cores(6-9) and changes in insolation. Our results indicate that orbital-scale Antarctic climate change lags Northern Hemisphere insolation by a few millennia, and that the increases in Antarctic temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration during the last four terminations occurred within the rising phase of Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. These results support the Milankovitch theory that Northern Hemisphere summer insolation triggered the last four deglaciations(3,10,11).

2005
Grachev, AM, Severinghaus JP.  2005.  A revised +10 +/- 4 degrees C magnitude of the abrupt change in Greenland temperature at the Younger Dryas termination using published GISP2 gas isotope data and air thermal diffusion constants. Quaternary Science Reviews. 24:513-519.   10.1016/j.quascirev.2004.10.016   AbstractWebsite

We revisit the portion of (Nature 391 (1998) 141) devoted to the abrupt temperature increase reconstruction at the Younger Dryas/Preboreal transition. The original estimate of + 5 to + 10 degrees C abrupt warming is revised to + 10 +/- 4 degrees C. The gas isotope data from the original work were employed, combined with recently measured precise air thermal diffusion constants (Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 67 (2003a) 345; J. Phys. Chem. 23A (2003b) 4636). The new constants allow a robust interpretation of the gas isotope signal in terms of temperature change. This was not possible at the time of the original work, when no air constants were available. Three quasi-independent approaches employed in this work all give the same result of a + 10 degrees C warming in several decades or less. The new result provides a firm target for climate models that attempt to predict future climates. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

2004
Taylor, KC, White JWC, Severinghaus JP, Brook EJ, Mayewski PA, Alley RB, Steig EJ, Spencer MK, Meyerson E, Meese DA, Lamorey GW, Grachev A, Gow AJ, Barnett BA.  2004.  Abrupt climate change around 22 ka on the Siple Coast of Antarctica. Quaternary Science Reviews. 23:7-15.   10.1016/j.quascirev.2003.09.004   AbstractWebsite

A new ice core from Siple Dome, Antarctica suggests the surface temperature increased by similar to6degreesC in just several decades at approximately 22 ka BP. This abrupt change did not occur 500 kin away in the Byrd ice core, or in climate proxy records in the Siple Dome core indicative of the mid-latitude Pacific. This demonstrates there was significant spatial heterogeneity in the response of the Antarctic climate during the last deglaciation and draws attention to unexplained mechanisms of abrupt climate change in Antarctica. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Landais, A, Caillon N, Severinghaus J, Barnola JM, Goujon C, Jouzel J, Masson-Delmotte V.  2004.  Isotopic measurements of air trapped in ice to quantify temperature changes. Comptes Rendus Geoscience. 336:963-970.   10.1016/j.crte.2004.03.013   AbstractWebsite

Isotopic measurements of air trapped in ice to quantify temperature changes. Isotopic measurements in polar ice core have shown a succession of rapid warming periods during the last glacial period over Greenland. However, this method underestimates the surface temperature variations. A new method based on gas thermal diffusion in the firn manages to quantify surface temperature variations through associated isotopic fractionations. We developed a method to extract air from the ice and to perform isotopic measurements to reduce analytical uncertainties to 0.006 and 0.020parts per thousand for delta(15)N and delta(40)Ar. It led to a 16 +/- 1.5degreesC surface temperature variation during a rapid warming (-70000 yr). (C) 2004 Academie des sciences. Publie par Elsevier SAS. Tous droits reserves.

2003
Grachev, AM, Severinghaus JP.  2003.  Determining the thermal diffusion factor for Ar-40/Ar-36 in air to aid paleoreconstruction of abrupt climate change. Journal of Physical Chemistry A. 107:4636-4642.   10.1021/jp027817u   AbstractWebsite

The thermal diffusion factor (alpha(T)) of Ar-40/Ar-36 in air has been measured in the laboratory for the first time. The mean values of alpha(T) x 10(3) that we find at -30.0 degreesC are 9.85 +/- 0.04 for air and 11.25 +/- 0.03 for pure argon. The latter value is more precise than the data found in the literature. The temperature dependence of the thermal diffusion factor in air in the range -60 to -10 degreesC can be described by an empirical equation alpha(T) x 10(3) = 26.08 - 3952/ (+/-1%), where is the effective average temperature. Results of this study are valuable for reconstruction of magnitudes of abrupt climate change events recorded in Greenland ice cores. For one abrupt warming event similar to15,000 years ago, near the end of the last glacial period, these results yield a warming of 11 +/- 3 degreesC over several decades or less. Theoretical calculations are not yet able to provide the needed accuracy, and the experimental results for the thermal diffusion factor in air should be used for paleoenvironmental studies.

Grachev, AM, Severinghaus JP.  2003.  Laboratory determination of thermal diffusion constants for N-29(2)/N-28(2) in air at temperatures from-60 to 0 degrees C for reconstruction of magnitudes of abrupt climate changes using the ice core fossil-air paleothermometer. Geochimica Et Cosmochimica Acta. 67:345-360.   10.1016/s0016-7037(02)01115-8   AbstractWebsite

Rapid temperature change causes fractionation of isotopic gaseous species in air in firn (snow) by thermal diffusion, producing a signal that is preserved in trapped air bubbles as the snow forms ice. Using a model of heat penetration and gas diffusion in the firn, as well as the values of appropriate thermal diffusion constants, it is possible to reconstruct the magnitude of a particular paleoclimate change. Isotopic nitrogen in air serves as a convenient tracer for such paleoreconstruction, because the ratio N-29(2)/N-28(2) has stayed extremely constant in the atmosphere for greater than or equal to10(6) years. However, prior to this work no data were available for thermal diffusion of N-29(2)/N-28(2) in air, but only in pure N-2. We devised a laboratory experiment allowing fractionation of gases by thermal diffusion in a small, tightly controlled temperature difference. A mass spectrometer was employed in measuring the resulting fractionations yielding measurement precision greater than was attainable by earlier thermal diffusion investigators. Our laboratory experiments indicate that the value of the thermal diffusion sensitivity (Omega) for N-29(2)/N-28(2) in air is +(14.7 +/- 0.5) X 10(-3) per mil/degreesC when the average temperature is -30.0degreesC. The corresponding value for N-29(2)/N-28(2) in pure N-2 that we find is +(15.3 +/- 0.4) X 10(-3) per mil/degreesC at -30.6degreesC, in agreement with the previously available literature data within their large range of uncertainty. We find that an empirical equation, Omega = (8.656/T-K - 1232/T-K(2)) +/- 3% per mil/degreesC, describes the slight variation of the sensitivity values for N-29(2)/N-28(2) in air with temperature in the range of -60 to 0degreesC. A separate set of experiments also described in this paper rules out adsorption as a candidate for producing additional temperature change-driven fractionation of N-29(2)/N-28(2) in the firn air. The combined newly obtained data constitute a calibration of the fossil-air paleothermometer with respect to isotopic nitrogen and will serve to improve the estimates of the magnitudes of past abrupt climate changes recorded in ice cores. Copyright (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd.

Severinghaus, JP, Grachev A, Luz B, Caillon N.  2003.  A method for precise measurement of argon 40/36 and krypton/argon ratios in trapped air in polar ice with applications to past firn thickness and abrupt climate change in Greenland and at Siple Dome, Antarctica. Geochimica Et Cosmochimica Acta. 67:325-343.   10.1016/s0016-7037(02)00965-1   AbstractWebsite

We describe a method for measuring the (40)Ar/(36)Ar ratio and the (84)Kr/(36)Ar ratio in air from bubbles trapped in ice cores. These ratios can provide constraints on the past thickness of the firn layer at the ice core site and on the magnitude of past rapid temperature variations when combined with measured (15)N/(14)N. Both variables contribute to paleoclimatic studies and ultimately to the understanding of the controls on Earth's climate. The overall precision of the (40)Ar/(36)Ar method (1 standard error of the mean) is 0.012parts per thousand for a sample analyzed in duplicate, corresponding to +/-0.6 in in reconstructed firn thickness. We use conventional dynamic isotope ratio mass spectrometry with minor modifications and special gas handling techniques designed to avoid fractionation. About 100 g of ice is used for a duplicate pair of analyses. An example of the technique applied to the GISP2 ice core yields an estimate of 11 +/- 3K of abrupt warming at the end of the last glacial period 15,000 years ago. The krypton/argon ratio can provide a diagnostic of argon leakage out of the bubbles, which may happen (naturally) during bubble close-off or (artifactually) if samples are warmed near the freezing point during core retrieval or storage. Argon leakage may fractionate the remaining (40)Ar/(36)Ar ratio by +0.007parts per thousand per parts per thousand change in (84)Kr/(36)Ar, introducing a possible bias in reconstructed firn thickness of about +2 in if thermal diffusion is not accounted for or +6 in if thermal diffusion effects are quantified with measured (15)N/(14)N. Reproducibility of (84)Kr/(36)Ar measured in air is about +/-0.2parts per thousand (1 standard error of the mean) but is about +/-1parts per thousand for ice core samples. Ice core samples are systematically enriched in (84)Kr/(36)Ar relative to atmosphere by similar to5parts per thousand, probably reflecting preferential size-dependent exclusion of the smaller argon atom during bubble entrapment. Recent results from the Siple Dome ice core reveal two climate events during the last deglaciation, including an 18-in reduction in firn thickness associated with an abrupt warming at sometime between 18 and 22 kyr BP and a partial or total removal of the firn during an ablation event at 15.3 kyr BP. Copyright (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd.

2001
Severinghaus, JP, Grachev A, Battle M.  2001.  Thermal fractionation of air in polar firn by seasonal temperature gradients. Geochemistry Geophysics Geosystems. 2   10.1029/2000GC000146   AbstractWebsite

Air withdrawn from the top 5-15 m of the polar snowpack (fim) shows anomalous enrichment of heavy gases during summer, including inert gases. Following earlier work, we ascribe this to thermal diffusion, the tendency of a gas mixture to separate in a temperature gradient, with heavier molecules migrating toward colder regions. Summer warmth creates a temperature gradient in the top few meters of the firn due to the thermal inertia of the underlying firn and causes gas fractionation by thermal diffusion. Here we explore and quantify this process further in order to (1) correct for bias caused by thermal diffusion in firn air and ice core air isotope records, (2) help calibrate a new technique for measuring temperature change in ice core gas records based on thermal diffusion [Severinghaus et al., 1998], and (3) address whether air in polar snow convects during winter and, if so, whether it creates a rectification of seasonality that could bias the ice core record. We sampled air at 2-m-depth intervals from the top 15 m of the firn at two Antarctic sites, Siple Dome and South Pole, including a winter sampling at the pole. We analyzed (15)N/(14)N, (40)Ar/(36)Ar, (40)Ar/(38)Ar, (18)O/(16)O of O(2), O(2)/N(2), (84)Kr/(36)Ar, and (132)Xe/(36)Ar. The results show the expected pattern of fractionation and match a gas diffusion model based on first principles to within 30%. Although absolute values of thermal diffusion sensitivities cannot be determined from the data with precision, relative values of different gas pairs may. At Siple Dome, delta (40)Ar/4 is 66 +/- 2% as sensitive to thermal diffusion as delta (15)N, in agreement with laboratory calibration; delta (18)O/2 is 83 +/- 3%, and delta (84)Kr/48 is 33 +/- 3% as sensitive as delta (15)N. The corresponding figures for summer South Pole are 64 +/- 2%, 81 +/- 3%, and 34 +/- 3%. Accounting for atmospheric change, the figure for deltaO(2)/N(2)/4 is 90 +/- 3% at Siple Dome. Winter South Pole shows a strong depletion of heavy gases as expected. However, the data do not fit the model well in the deeper part of the profile and yield a systematic drift with depth in relative thermal diffusion sensitivities (except for Kr, constant at 34 +/- 4%), suggesting the action of some other process that is not currently understood. No evidence for wintertime convection or a rectifier effect is seen.

2000
Cuffey, KM, Conway H, Gades AM, Hallet B, Lorrain R, Severinghaus JP, Steig EJ, Vaughn B, White JWC.  2000.  Entrainment at cold glacier beds. Geology. 28:351-354.   10.1130/0091-7613(2000)028<0351:eacgb>2.3.co;2   AbstractWebsite

Here we present measurements of the gas content and isotopic composition of debris-rich basal layers of a polar glacier, Meserve Glacier, Antarctica, which has a basal temperature of -17 degrees C. These measurements show that debris entrainment has occurred without alteration of the glacial ice, and provide the most direct evidence to date that active entrainment occurs at the beds of cold glaciers, without bulk freezing of water. Entrainment at subfreezing temperatures may have formed the U-shaped trough containing Meserve Glacier. In addition to possibly allowing some cold-based glaciers to be important geomorphic agents, entrainment at subfreezing temperatures provides a general mechanism for formation of the dirty basal layers of polar glaciers and ice sheets, which are theologically distinct and can limit the time span of ice-core analyses. Furthermore, accumulating evidence suggests that geomorphologists should abandon the assumption that cold-based glaciers do not slide and abrade their beds.

1997
Taylor, KC, Mayewski PA, Alley RB, Brook EJ, Gow AJ, Grootes PM, Meese DA, Saltzman ES, Severinghaus JP, Twickler MS, White JWC, Whitlow S, Zielinski GA.  1997.  The Holocene Younger Dryas transition recorded at Summit, Greenland. Science. 278:825-827.   10.1126/science.278.5339.825   AbstractWebsite

Analysis of ice from Dye-3, Greenland, has demonstrated that the transition between the Younger Dryas and Holocene climate periods occurred over a 40-year period. A near annually resolved, multiparameter record of the transition recorded in the GISP2 core from Summit, Greenland, shows that most of the transition occurred in a series of steps with durations of about 5 years. Some climate proxies associated with more northern regions. Changes in atmospheric water vapor are likely to have played a large role in the climate transition.