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Green, H, Bailey J, Schwarz L, Vanos J, Ebi K, Benmarhnia T.  2019.  Impact of heat on mortality and morbidity in low and middle income countries: A review of the epidemiological evidence and considerations for future research. Environmental Research. 171:80-91.   10.1016/j.envres.2019.01.010   AbstractWebsite

Heat waves and high air temperature are associated with increased morbidity and mortality. However, the majority of research conducted on this topic is focused on high income areas of the world. Although heat waves have the most severe impacts on vulnerable populations, relatively few studies have studied their impacts in low and middle income countries (LMICs). The aim of this paper is to review the existing evidence in the literature on the impact of heat on human health in LMICs. We identified peer-reviewed epidemiologic studies published in English between January 1980 and August 2018 investigating potential associations between high ambient temperature or heat waves and mortality or morbidity. We selected studies according to the following criteria: quantitative studies that used primary and/or secondary data and report effect estimates where ambient temperature or heat waves are the main exposure of interest in relation to human morbidity or mortality within LMICs. Of the total 146 studies selected, eighty-two were conducted in China, nine in other countries of East Asia and the Pacific, twelve in South Asia, ten in Sub-Saharan Africa, eight in the Middle East and North Africa, and seven in each of Latin America and Europe. The majority of studies (92.9%) found positive associations between heat and human morbidity/mortality. Additionally, while outcome variables and study design differed greatly, most utilized a time-series study design and examined overall heath related morbidity/mortality impacts in an entire population, although it is notable that the selected studies generally found that the elderly, women, and individuals within the low socioeconomic brackets were the most vulnerable to the effects of high temperature. By highlighting the existing evidence on the impact of extreme heat on health in LMICs, we hope to determine data needs and help direct future studies in addressing this knowledge gap. The focus on LMICs is justified by the lack of studies and data studying the health burden of higher temperatures in these regions even though LMICs have a lower capacity to adapt to high temperatures and thus an increased risk.

Hosokawa, Y, Casa DJ, Trtanj JM, Belval LN, Deuster PA, Giltz SM, Grundstein AJ, Hawkins MD, Huggins RA, Jacklitsch B, Jardine JF, Jones H, Kazman JB, Reynolds ME, Stearns RL, Vanos JK, Williams AL, Williams WJ.  2019.  Activity modification in heat: critical assessment of guidelines across athletic, occupational, and military settings in the USA. International Journal of Biometeorology. 63:405-427.   10.1007/s00484-019-01673-6   AbstractWebsite

Exertional heat illness (EHI) risk is a serious concern among athletes, laborers, and warfighters. US Governing organizations have established various activity modification guidelines (AMGs) and other risk mitigation plans to help ensure the health and safety of their workers. The extent of metabolic heat production and heat gain that ensue from their work are the core reasons for EHI in the aforementioned population. Therefore, the major focus of AMGs in all settings is to modulate the work intensity and duration with additional modification in adjustable extrinsic risk factors (e.g., clothing, equipment) and intrinsic risk factors (e.g., heat acclimatization, fitness, hydration status). Future studies should continue to integrate more physiological (e.g., valid body fluid balance, internal body temperature) and biometeorological factors (e.g., cumulative heat stress) to the existing heat risk assessment models to reduce the assumptions and limitations in them. Future interagency collaboration to advance heat mitigation plans among physically active population is desired to maximize the existing resources and data to facilitate advancement in AMGs for environmental heat.

Cakmak, S, Hebbern C, Vanos J, Crouse DL, Tjepkema M.  2019.  Exposure to traffic and mortality risk in the 1991-2011 Canadian Census Health and Environment Cohort (CanCHEC). Environment International. 124:16-24.   10.1016/j.envint.2018.12.045   AbstractWebsite

There is evidence that local traffic density and living near major roads can adversely affect health outcomes. We aimed to assess the relationship between local road length, proximity to primary highways, and cause-specific mortality in the 1991 Canadian Census Health and Environment Cohort (CanCHEC). In this long-term study of 2.6 million people, based on completion of the long-form census in 1991 and followed until 2011, we used annual residential addresses to determine the total length of local roads within 200m of postal code representative points and the postal code's distance to primary highways. The association between exposure to traffic and cause-specific non-accidental mortality was estimated using Cox proportional hazards models, adjusting for individual covariates and contextual factors, including census division-level proportion in high school, the percentage of recent immigrants, and neighborhood income. We performed sensitivity analyses, including adjustment for exposure to PM2.5, NO2, or O-3, restricting to subjects in core urban areas, and spatial variation by climatic zone. The hazard ratio (HR) for all non-accidental mortality associated with an interquartile increase in length of local roads was 1.05 (95% CI 1.04, 1.05), while for an interquartile range increase in proximity to primary highways, the HR was 1.03 (95% CI 1.02, 1.04). HRs by traffic quartile increased with increasing lengths of local roads, as well as with closer proximity to primary highways, for all mortality causes. The associations were stronger within subjects' resident in urban core areas, attenuated by adjustment for PM2.5, and HRs showed limited spatial variation by climatic zone. In the CanCHEC cohort, exposure to higher road density and proximity to major traffic roads was associated with increased mortality risk from cerebrovascular and cardiovascular disease, ischemic heart disease, COPD, respiratory disease, and lung cancer, with unclear results for diabetes.

Vanos, JK, Kosaka E, Iida A, Yokohari M, Middel A, Scott-Fleming J, Brown RD.  2019.  Planning for spectator thermal comfort and health in the face of extreme heat: The Tokyo 2020 Olympic marathons. Science of the Total Environment. 657:904-917.   10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.447   AbstractWebsite

The 2020 Olympic Games marathon will be run through the streets of Tokyo on the mornings of August 2nd and 9th, a time of year that is typically hot, sunny, and humid. Few studies have assessed the potential impact of extreme heat along the marathon course to understand the multiple factors (e.g., radiation, wind flow) affecting human thermal comfort (TC) as influenced by urban design and vegetation. The current research establishes a baseline of microclimate conditions and scenarios to estimate the projected TC along the marathon route for spectators. Mobile microclimate data (air and surface temperatures, solar radiation, humidity, wind speed) were collected along the marathon course over 15 periods in the summer of 2016 and aligned with sky view factors (SVF). Human energy budget modeling was applied to provide spatially-explicit heat budget and TC information along the route. Conditions are expected to create the most discomfort along open, sun-exposed locations, with similar to 50% of the area along the second half of the course resulting in 'Hot' (budget > 200 W m(-2)) or 'Very hot' (budget > 295 W m(-2)) conditions. The heat strain index frequently rises above 80% in these locations, with high humidity and low wind flow exacerbating discomfort. Buildings and trees producing a low SVF over roads and sidewalks protect spectators from the morning radiant heat, but such locations should be balanced with wind flow to optimize comfort. The modeling and spatial information can aid in preparing for and mitigating heat stress during the Olympics. Potential solutions can be implemented in collaboration with local organizers and government. This 'research through design' strategy can aid in preparing for and mitigating heat illness during the Olympics. Knowledge gained can be extended to other areas of Tokyo to reduce urban heat, and further provide targeted guidance for effective environmental cooling techniques for human health. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Zhao, NZ, Liu Y, Vanos JK, Cao GF.  2018.  Day-of-week and seasonal patterns of PM2.5 concentrations over the United States: Time-series analyses using the Prophet procedure. Atmospheric Environment. 192:116-127.   10.1016/j.atmosenv.2018.08.050   AbstractWebsite

Fluctuations of ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations show clear yearly and weekly patterns, which has been revealed by previous studies. However, reliability of those studies may be affected by their small research areas, short observation periods, and/or the lack of using specialized statistical approaches for time series. The current study applies a recently developed time-series analysis procedure, Prophet, to investigate seasonality of daily PM2.5 concentrations over nine years (2007-2015) measured at 220 monitoring stations across the United States. Prophet is a new tool for producing high quality forecasts from time series data that have characteristics of multiple temporal patterns with either linear or non-linear growth/decline. Through decomposing each PM2.5 time series into three major components (i.e., trend, seasonality, and holidays), we observed periodically changing patterns of PM2.5 concentrations weekly and yearly consistent with previous findings. Specifically, relatively high PM2.5 concentrations tend to appear in the month of January and on Fridays, and PM2.5 concentrations on Sunday are generally lower than those on most other days of the week. However, we discovered that high PM2.5 concentrations are also likely to appear in July. Additionally, compared to Fridays in most studies, the highest PM2.5 concentrations are found to more likely occur on Saturdays, while the lowest concentrations are found on Monday as universally as on Sunday. Beyond understanding the seasonality of PM2.5 concentrations, this study revealed the potential use of Prophet, originally designed for business time series, for detecting periodicities of environmental phenomena.

Kalkstein, AJ, Kalkstein LS, Vanos JK, Eisenman DP, Dixon PG.  2018.  Heat/mortality sensitivities in Los Angeles during winter: a unique phenomenon in the United States. Environmental Health. 17   10.1186/s12940-018-0389-7   AbstractWebsite

Background: Extreme heat is often associated with elevated levels of human mortality, particularly across the mid-latitudes. Los Angeles, CA exhibits a unique, highly variable winter climate, with brief periods of intense heat caused by downsloping winds commonly known as Santa Ana winds. The goal is to determine if Los Angeles County is susceptible to heat-related mortality during the winter season. This is the first study to specifically evaluate heatrelated mortality during the winter for a U.S. city. Methods: Utilizing the Spatial Synoptic Classification system in Los Angeles County from 1979 through 2010, we first relate daily human mortality to synoptic air mass type during the winter season (December, January, February) using Welch's t-tests. However, this methodology is only somewhat effective at controlling for important inter-and intra-annual trends in human mortality unrelated to heat such as influenza outbreaks. As a result, we use distributed lag nonlinear modeling (DLNM) to evaluate if the relative risk of human mortality increases during higher temperatures in Los Angeles, as the DLNM is more effective at controlling for variability at multiple temporal scales within the human mortality dataset. Results: Significantly higher human mortality is uncovered in winter when dry tropical air is present in Los Angeles, particularly among those 65 years and older (p < 0.001). The DLNM reveals the relative risk of human mortality increases when above average temperatures are present. Results are especially pronounced for maximum and mean temperatures, along with total mortality and those 65 +. Conclusions: The discovery of heat-related mortality in winter is a unique finding in the United States, and we recommend stakeholders consider warning and intervention techniques to mitigate the role of winter heat on human health in the County.

Mehdipoor, H, Vanos JK, Zurita-Milla R, Cao GF.  2017.  Short communication: emerging technologies for biometeorology. International Journal of Biometeorology. 61:S81-S88.   10.1007/s00484-017-1399-9   AbstractWebsite

The first decade of the twenty-first century saw remarkable technological advancements for use in biometeorology. These emerging technologies have allowed for the collection of new data and have further emphasized the need for specific and/or changing systems for efficient data management, data processing, and advanced representations of new data through digital information management systems. This short communication provides an overview of new hardware and software technologies that support biometeorologists in representing and understanding the influence of atmospheric processes on living organisms.

Grundstein, A, Knox JA, Vanos J, Cooper ER, Casa DJ.  2017.  American football and fatal exertional heat stroke: a case study of Korey Stringer. International Journal of Biometeorology. 61:1471-1480.   10.1007/s00484-017-1324-2   AbstractWebsite

On August 1, 2001, Korey Stringer, a Pro Bowl offensive tackle for the Minnesota Vikings, became the first and to date the only professional American football player to die from exertional heat stroke (EHS). The death helped raise awareness of the dangers of exertional heat illnesses in athletes and prompted the development of heat safety policies at the professional, collegiate, and interscholastic levels. Despite the public awareness of this death, no published study has examined in detail the circumstances surrounding Stringer's fatal EHS. Using the well-documented details of the case, our study shows that Stringer's fatal EHS was the result of a combination of physiological limitations, organizational and treatment failings, and extreme environmental conditions. The COMfort FormulA (COMFA) energy budget model was used to assess the relative importance of several extrinsic factors on Stringer's EHS, including weather conditions, clothing insulation, and activity levels. We found that Stringer's high-intensity training in relation to the oppressive environmental conditions was the most prominent factor in producing dangerous, uncompensable heat stress conditions and that the full football uniform played a smaller role in influencing Stringer's energy budget. The extreme energy budget levels that led to the fatal EHS would have been avoided according to our modeling through a combination of reduced intensity and lower clothing insulation. Finally, a long delay in providing medical treatment made the EHS fatal. These results highlight the importance of modern heat safety guidelines that provide controls on extrinsic factors, such as the adjustment of duration and intensity of training along with protective equipment modifications based on environmental conditions and the presence of an emergency action plan focused on rapid recognition and immediate on-site aggressive cooling of EHS cases.