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Abernathey, RP, Cerovecki I, Holland PR, Newsom E, Mazlo M, Talley LD.  2016.  Water-mass transformation by sea ice in the upper branch of the Southern Ocean overturning. Nature Geoscience. 9:596-+.   10.1038/ngeo2749   AbstractWebsite

Ocean overturning circulation requires a continuous thermodynamic transformation of the buoyancy of seawater. The steeply sloping isopycnals of the Southern Ocean provide a pathway for Circumpolar Deep Water to upwell from mid depth without strong diapycnal mixing(1-3), where it is transformed directly by surface fluxes of heat and freshwater and splits into an upper and lower branch(4-6). While brine rejection from sea ice is thought to contribute to the lower branch(7), the role of sea ice in the upper branch is less well understood, partly due to a paucity of observations of sea-ice thickness and transport(8,9). Here we quantify the sea-ice freshwater flux using the Southern Ocean State Estimate, a state-of-the-art data assimilation that incorporates millions of ocean and ice observations. We then use the water-mass transformation framework(10) to compare the relative roles of atmospheric, sea-ice, and glacial freshwater fluxes, heat fluxes, and upper-ocean mixing in transforming buoyancy within the upper branch. We find that sea ice is a dominant term, with differential brine rejection and ice melt transforming upwelled Circumpolar Deep Water at a rate of similar to 22 x 10(6) m(3) s(-1). These results imply a prominent role for Antarctic sea ice in the upper branch and suggest that residual overturning and wind-driven sea-ice transport are tightly coupled.

Tamsitt, V, Talley LD, Mazloff MR, Cerovecki I.  2016.  Zonal variations in the Southern Ocean heat budget. Journal of Climate. 29:6563-6579.   10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0630.1   AbstractWebsite

The spatial structure of the upper ocean heat budget in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) is investigated using the ⅙°, data-assimilating Southern Ocean State Estimate (SOSE) for 2005–10. The ACC circumpolar integrated budget shows that 0.27 PW of ocean heat gain from the atmosphere and 0.38 PW heat gain from divergence of geostrophic heat transport are balanced by −0.58 PW cooling by divergence of Ekman heat transport and −0.09 PW divergence of vertical heat transport. However, this circumpolar integrated balance obscures important zonal variations in the heat budget. The air–sea heat flux shows a zonally asymmetric pattern of ocean heat gain in the Indian and Atlantic sectors and ocean heat loss in the Pacific sector of the ACC. In the Atlantic and Indian sectors of the ACC, the surface ocean heat gain is primarily balanced by divergence of equatorward Ekman heat transport that cools the upper ocean. In the Pacific sector, surface ocean heat loss and cooling due to divergence of Ekman heat transport are balanced by warming due to divergence of geostrophic heat advection, which is similar to the dominant heat balance in the subtropical Agulhas Return Current. The divergence of horizontal and vertical eddy advection of heat is important for warming the upper ocean close to major topographic features, while the divergence of mean vertical heat advection is a weak cooling term. The results herein show that topographic steering and zonal asymmetry in air–sea exchange lead to substantial zonal asymmetries in the heat budget, which is important for understanding the upper cell of the overturning circulation.

Cerovecki, I, Giglio D.  2016.  North Pacific subtropical mode water volume decrease in 2006-09 estimated from Argo Observations: Influence of surface formation and basin-scale oceanic variability. Journal of Climate. 29:2177-2199.   10.1175/jcli-d-15-0179.1   AbstractWebsite

Analysis of Argo temperature and salinity profiles (gridded at 0.5 degrees x 0.5 degrees resolution for 2005-12) shows a strong North Pacific Subtropical Mode Water (NPSTMW) volume and density decrease during 2006-09. In this time period, upper-ocean temperature, stratification, and potential vorticity (PV) all increased within the region in and around the NPSTMW low-PV pool, contributing to the NPSTMW volume decrease in two ways: (i) the volume of water satisfying the low-PV constraint that is part of the "mode water'' definition decreased, and (ii) some water that was initially in the NPSTMW density range sigma(theta) = 25.0-25.5 kg m(-3) was transformed into lighter water. Both changes in density and in PV in the NPSTMW region were a manifestation of basinwide changes. A positive PV anomaly started to propagate westward from the central Pacific in 2005, followed by a negative density anomaly in 2007, which caused a dramatic NPSTMW volume and density decrease. A Walin estimate of surface formation in the NPSTMW density range accounted better (although not entirely) for the interannual variability of the volume of water in the NPSTMW density range without imposing the PV, < 2 x 10(-10) m(-1) s(-1) constraint than did the same estimate with the PV constraint imposed. This underlines the importance of the PV constraint in identifying the mode water. The mode water evolution cannot be fully described from a density budget alone; rather, the PV budget must be considered simultaneously.

Schonau, MC, Rudnick DL, Cerovecki I, Gopalakrishnan G, Cornuelle BD, McClean JL, Qiu B.  2015.  The Mindanao Current mean structure and connectivity. Oceanography. 28:34-45.   10.5670/oceanog.2015.79   AbstractWebsite

The Mindanao Current (MC), a low-latitude western boundary current in the Pacific Ocean, plays an important role in heat and freshwater transport to the western Pacific warm pool and the Indian Ocean. However, there have been relatively few comprehensive studies of the structure and variability of the MC and its connectivity to regional circulation. The Origins of the Kuroshio and Mindanao Current (OKMC) initiative combines four years of glider observations of the MC, a historical conductivity-temperature-depth (CTD)/float climatology, and results from a global strongly eddying forward ocean general circulation model simulation and a regional ocean state estimate. The MC is resolved as a strong southward current primarily within the upper 200 m, approaching 1 m s(-1), and extending roughly 300 km offshore of Mindanao. Observations and model simulations show a persistent northward Mindanao Undercurrent (MUC) below the thermocline. The MC transports water masses of North Pacific origin southward, while the MUC carries water with South Pacific characteristics northward. The subthermocline transport of the MC and the MUC is connected to other undercurrents in the Philippine Sea. The variability of this transport is a topic of continuing research.

Qiu, B, Rudnick DL, Cerovecki I, Cornuelle BD, Chen S, Schonau MC, McClean JL, Gopalakrishnan G.  2015.  The Pacific North Equatorial Current: New insights from the Origins of the Kuroshio and Mindanao Currents (OKMC) Project. Oceanography. 28:24-33.   10.5670/oceanog.2015.78   AbstractWebsite

Located at the crossroads of the tropical and subtropical circulations, the westward-flowing North Equatorial Current (NEC) and its subsequent bifurcation off the Philippine coast near 13 degrees N serve as important pathways for heat and water mass exchanges between the mid- and low-latitude North Pacific Ocean. Because the western Pacific warm pool, with sea surface temperatures > 28 degrees C, extends poleward of 17 degrees N in the western North Pacific, the bifurcation and transport partitioning of the NEC into the Kuroshio and Mindanao Currents are likely to affect the temporal evolution of the warm pool through lateral advection. In addition to its influence on physical conditions, NEC variability is also important to the regional biological properties and the fisheries along the Philippine coast and in the western Pacific Ocean. This article synthesizes our current understandings of the NEC, especially those garnered through the recent Origins of the Kuroshio and Mindanao Current (OKMC) project.

Cerovečki, I, Mazloff MR.  2015.  The spatiotemporal structure of diabatic processes governing the evolution of Subantarctic Mode Water in the Southern Ocean. Journal of Physical Oceanography. : American Meteorological Society   10.1175/JPO-D-14-0243.1   Abstract

AbstractA coupled ice-ocean eddy-permitting Southern Ocean State Estimate (SOSE) for 2008-2010 is used to describe and quantify the processes forming and destroying water in the Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) density range (σ?=26.7 ? 27.2 kg m-3). All the terms in the temperature and salinity equations have been diagnosed to obtain a three dimensional and time varying volume budget for individual isopycnal layers. We find that air-sea buoyancy fluxes, diapycnal mixing, advection, and storage are all important to the SAMW volume budget.The formation and destruction of water in the SAMW density range occurs over a large latitude range due to the seasonal migration of the outcrop window. The strongest formation is by wintertime surface ocean heat loss occurring equatorward of the Subantarctic Front. Spring and summertime formation occur in the polar gyres by freshening of water with σ? > 27.2 kg m-3, with an important contribution from sea ice melt. Further buoyancy gain by heating is accomplished only after these waters have already been transformed into the SAMW density range. The spatially integrated and time-averaged SAMW formation rate in the ocean surface layer is 7.9 Sv by air-sea buoyancy fluxes and 8.8 Sv by diapycnal mixing, and it is balanced by advective export into the interior ocean. These average rates are the result of highly variable processes with strong cancellation in both space and time. In this work we map the spatiotemporal structure of the formation and evolution processes that must be represented in climate models in order to properly represent the three-dimensional Southern Ocean overturning circulation.

Bourassa, MA, Gille ST, Bitz C, Carlson D, Cerovecki I, Clayson CA, Cronin MF, Drennan WM, Fairall CW, Hoffman RN, Magnusdottir G, Pinker RT, Renfrew IA, Serreze M, Speer K, Talley LD, Wick GA.  2013.  High-latitude ocean and sea ice surface fluxes: Challenges for climate research. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 94:403-423.   10.1175/bams-d-11-00244.1   AbstractWebsite

Polar regions have great sensitivity to climate forcing; however, understanding of the physical processes coupling the atmosphere and ocean in these regions is relatively poor. Improving our knowledge of high-latitute surface fluxes will require close collaboration among meteorologists, oceanographers, ice physicists, and climatologists, and between observationalists and modelers, as well as new combinations of in situ measurements and satellite remote sensing. This article describes the deficiencies in our current state of knowledge about air-sea surface fluxes in high latitutes, the sensitivity of various high-latitude processes to changes in surface fluxes, and the scientific requirements for surface fluxes at high latitutdes. We inventory the reasons, both logistical and physical, why existing flux products do not meet these requirements. Capturing an annual cycle in fluxes requires that instruments function through long periods of cold polar darkness, often far from support services, in situations subject to icing and extreme wave conditions. Furthermore, frequent cloud cover at high latitudes restricts the avilability of surface and atmospheric data from visible and infrared (IR) wavelength satellite sensors. Recommendations are made for improving high-latitude fluxes, including 1) acquiring more in situ observations, 2) developing improved satellite-flux-observing capabilities, 3) making observations and flux products more accessible, and 4) encouraging flux intercomparisons.

Cerovecki, I, Talley LD, Mazloff MR, Maze G.  2013.  Subantarctic mode water formation, destruction, and export in the eddy-permitting southern ocean state estimate. Journal of Physical Oceanography. 43:1485-1511.   10.1175/jpo-d-12-0121.1   AbstractWebsite

Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) is examined using the data-assimilating, eddy-permitting Southern Ocean State Estimate, for 2005 and 2006. Surface formation due to air-sea buoyancy flux is estimated using Walin analysis, and diapycnal mixing is diagnosed as the difference between surface formation and transport across 30 degrees S, accounting for volume change with time. Water in the density range 26.5 < sigma < 27.1 kg m(-3) that includes SAMW is exported northward in all three ocean sectors, with a net transport of (18.2, 17.1) Sv (1 Sv 10(6) m(3) s(-1); for years 2005, 2006); air-sea buoyancy fluxes form (13.2, 6.8) Sv, diapycnal mixing removes (-14.5, -12.6) Sv, and there is a volume loss of (-19.3, -22.9) Sv mostly occurring in the strongest SAMW formation locations. The most vigorous SAMW formation is in the Indian Ocean by air-sea buoyancy flux (9.4, 10.9) Sv, where it is partially destroyed by diapycnal mixing (-6.6, -3.1) Sv. There is strong export to the Pacific, where SAMW is destroyed both by air-sea buoyancy flux (-1.1, -4.6) Sv and diapycnal mixing (-5.6, -8.4) Sv. In the South Atlantic, SAMW is formed by air-sea buoyancy flux (5.0, 0.5) Sv and is destroyed by diapycnal mixing (-2.3, -1.1) Sv. Peaks in air-sea flux formation occur at the Southeast Indian and Southeast Pacific SAMWs (SEISAMWs, SEPSAMWs) densities. Formation over the broad SAMW circumpolar outcrop windows is largely from denser water, driven by differential freshwater gain, augmented or decreased by heating or cooling. In the SEISAMW and SEPSAMW source regions, however, formation is from lighter water, driven by differential heat loss.

Cerovecki, I, Talley LD, Mazloff MR.  2011.  A comparison of Southern Ocean air-sea buoyancy flux from an ocean state estimate with five other products. Journal of Climate. 24:6283-6306.   10.1175/2011jcli3858.1   AbstractWebsite

The authors have intercompared the following six surface buoyancy flux estimates, averaged over the years 2005-07: two reanalyses [the recent ECMWF reanalysis (ERA-Interim; hereafter ERA), and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-NCAR reanalysis 1 (hereafter NCEP1)], two recent flux products developed as an improvement of NCEP1 [the flux product by Large and Yeager and the Southern Ocean State Estimate (SOSE)], and two ad hoc air sea flux estimates that are obtained by combining the NCEP1 or ERA net radiative fluxes with turbulent flux estimates using the Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Response Experiment (COARE) 3.0 bulk formulas with NCEP1 or ERA input variables. The accuracy of SOSE adjustments of NCEP1 atmospheric fields (which SOSE uses as an initial guess and a constraint) was assessed by verification that SOSE reduces the biases in the NCEP1 fluxes as diagnosed by the Working Group on Air-Sea Fluxes (Taylor), suggesting that oceanic observations may be a valuable constraint to improve atmospheric variables. Compared with NCEP1, both SOSE and Large and Yeager increase the net ocean heat loss in high latitudes, decrease ocean heat loss in the subtropical Indian Ocean, decrease net evaporation in the subtropics, and decrease net precipitation in polar latitudes. The large-scale pattern of SOSE and Large and Yeager turbulent heat flux adjustment is similar, but the magnitude of SOSE adjustments is significantly larger. Their radiative heat flux adjustments patterns differ. Turbulent heat fluxes determined by combining COARE bulk formulas with NCEP1 or ERA should not be combined with unmodified NCEP1 or ERA radiative fluxes as the net ocean heat gain poleward of 25 degrees S becomes unrealistically large. The other surface flux products (i.e., NCEP1, ERA, Large and Yeager, and SOSE) balance more closely. Overall, the statistical estimates of the differences between the various air-sea heat flux products tend lobe largest in regions with strong ocean mesoscale activity such as the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the western boundary currents.

Cerovecki, I, Plumb RA, Heres W.  2009.  Eddy transport and mixing in a wind- and buoyancy-driven jet on the sphere. Journal of Physical Oceanography. 39:1133-1149.   10.1175/2008jpo3596.1   AbstractWebsite

The baroclinically unstable wind-and buoyancy-driven flow in a zonally reentrant pie-shaped sector on a sphere is numerically modeled and then analyzed using the transformed Eulerian-mean (TEM) formalism. Mean fields are obtained by zonal and time averaging performed at fixed height. The very large latitudinal extent of the basin (50.7 degrees S latitude to the equator) allows the latitude variation of the Coriolis parameter to strongly influence the flow. Persistent zonal jets are observed in the statistically steady state. Reynolds stress terms play an important role in redistributing zonal angular momentum: convergence of the lateral momentum flux gives rise to a strong eastward jet, with an adjacent westward jet equatorward and weaker multiple jets poleward. An equally prominent feature of the flow is a strong and persistent eddy that has the structure of a Kelvin cat's eye and generally occupies the zonal width of the basin at latitudes 15 degrees-10 degrees S. A strongly mixed surface diabatic zone overlies the near-adiabatic interior, within which Ertel potential vorticity (but not thickness) is homogenized along the mean isopycnals everywhere in the basin where eddies have developed (and thus is not homogenized equatorward of the most energetic eastward jet). A region of low potential vorticity (PV) is formed adjacent to the strong baroclinic front associated with that jet and subsequently maintained by strong convective events. The eddy buoyancy flux is dominated by its skew component over large parts of the near-adiabatic interior, with cross-isopycnal components present only in the vicinity of the main jet and in the surface diabatic layer. Close to the main jet, the cross-isopycnal components are dominantly balanced by the triple correlation terms in the buoyancy variance budget, while the advection of buoyancy variance by the mean flow is not a dominant term in the eddy buoyancy variance budget. Along-isopycnal mixing in the near-adiabatic interior is estimated by applying the effective diffusivity diagnostic of Nakamura. The effective diffusivity is large at the flanks of the mean jet and beneath it and small in the jet core. The apparent horizontal diffusivity for buoyancy obtained from the flux-gradient relationship is the same magnitude as the effective diffusivity, but the structures are rather different. The diapycnal diffusivity is strongest in the surface layer and also in a convectively unstable region that extends to depths of hundreds of meters beneath the equatorward flank of the main jet.

Maze, G, Forget G, Buckley M, Marshall J, Cerovecki I.  2009.  Using transformation and formation maps to study the role of air-sea heat fluxes in North Atlantic eighteen degree water formation. Journal of Physical Oceanography. 39:1818-1835.   10.1175/2009jpo3985.1   AbstractWebsite

The Walin water mass framework quantifies the rate at which water is transformed from one temperature class to another by air-sea heat fluxes (transformation). The divergence of the transformation rate yields the rate at which a given temperature range is created or destroyed by air-sea heat fluxes ( formation). Walin's framework provides a precise integral statement at the expense of losing spatial information. In this study the integrand of Walin's expression to yield transformation and formation maps is plotted and used to study the role of air-sea heat fluxes in the cycle of formation-destruction of the 18 degrees +/- 1 degrees C layer in the North Atlantic. Using remotely sensed sea surface temperatures and air-sea heat flux estimates based on both analyzed meteorological fields and ocean data-model syntheses for the 3-yr period from 2004 to 2006, the authors find that Eighteen Degree Water (EDW) is formed by air-sea heat fluxes in the western part of the subtropical gyre, just south of the Gulf Stream. The formation rate peaks in February when the EDW layer is thickened by convection owing to buoyancy loss. EDW is destroyed by air-sea heat fluxes from spring to summer over the entire subtropical gyre. In the annual mean there is net EDW formation in the west to the south of the Gulf Stream, and net destruction over the eastern part of the gyre. Results suggest that annual mean formation rates of EDW associated with air-sea fluxes are in the range from 3 to 5 Sv (Sv equivalent to 10(6) m(3) s(-1)). Finally, error estimates are computed from sea surface temperature and heat flux data using an ensemble perturbation method. The transformation/formation patterns are found to be robust and errors mostly affect integral quantities.

Cerovecki, I, Marshall J.  2008.  Eddy modulation of air-sea interaction and convection. Journal of Physical Oceanography. 38:65-83.   10.1175/2007jpo3545.1   AbstractWebsite

Eddy modulation of the air-sea interaction and convection that occurs in the process of mode water formation is analyzed in simulations of a baroclinically unstable wind- and buoyancy-driven jet. The watermass transformation analysis of Walin is used to estimate the formation rate of mode water and to characterize the role of eddies in that process. It is found that diabatic eddy heat flux divergences in the mixed layer are comparable in magnitude, but of opposite sign, to the surface air-sea heat flux and largely cancel the direct effect of buoyancy loss to the atmosphere. The calculations suggest that mode water formation estimates based on climatological air-sea heat flux data and outcrops, which do not fully resolve ocean eddies, may neglect a large opposing term in the heat budget and are thus likely to significantly overestimate true formation rates. In Walin's watermass transformation framework, this manifests itself as a sensitivity of formation rate estimates to the averaging period over which the outcrops and air-sea fluxes are subjected. The key processes are described in terms of a transformed Eulerian-mean formalism in which eddy-induced mean flow tends to cancel the Eulerian-mean flow, resulting in weaker residual mean flow, subduction, and mode water formation rates.

Chan, CJ, Plumb RA, Cerovecki I.  2007.  Annular modes in a multiple migrating zonal jet regime. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 64:4053-4068.   10.1175/2007jas2156.1   AbstractWebsite

The authors investigate the dynamics of zonal jets in a semihemisphere zonally reentrant ocean model. The forcings imposed in the model are an idealized atmospheric wind stress and relaxation to a latitudinal temperature profile held constant in time. While there are striking similarities to the observed atmospheric annular modes, where the leading mode of variability is associated with the primary zonal jet's meridional undulation, secondary (weaker) jets emerge and systematically migrate equatorward. The model output suggests the following mechanism for the equatorward migration: while the eddy momentum fluxes sustain the jets, the eddy heat fluxes have a poleward bias causing an anomalous residual circulation with poleward (equatorward) flow on the poleward (equatorward) flanks. By conservation of mass, there must be a rising residual flow at the jet. From the thermodynamics equation, the greatest cooling occurs at the jet core, thus creating a tendency to reduce the baroclinicity on the poleward flank, while enhancing it on the equatorward flank. Consequently, the baroclinic zone shifts, perpetuating the jet migration.

Cerovecki, I, de Szoeke R.  2007.  How purely wind-driven long planetary geostrophic waves may be energized in the western part of ocean subtropical gyres. Journal of Physical Oceanography. 37:60-70.   10.1175/jpo2977.1   AbstractWebsite

Satellite observations and idealized numerical studies reveal intensification of long-period (on the order of one cycle per year) waves in the western part of ocean basins. The authors explore the idea that the intensification is associated with the spatial growth of purely time periodic, but baroclinically unstable, motions. The framework is a simple idealized 2(1)/(2)-layer model in which only the upper layer is directly forced by the wind, a setting similar to the shadow zone of the Luyten-Pedlosky-Stommel (LPS) model. The upper two layers participate in the wave motion, which is driven by a large-scale wind stress fluctuating with the annual period, representing the seasonal cycle. Although possibly unstable solutions exist everywhere in the subtropical gyre on account of the nonzero meridional background flow, they are not seen in the eastern part of the basin in satellite observations nor are they excited there by model gyre-scale annual-period winds. Instead, energy injected into the model ocean at a fixed frequency and with zonal and meridional wavenumbers, such that the resulting flow perturbation is locally stable, refracts westward as it propagates through the spatially varying background flow without change of frequency and reaches distant regions where the spatial wavenumber becomes complex so that spatial growth occurs. This process results in spatially growing solutions of annual or near-annual frequency only in the southwestern part of the model subtropical gyre, thus explaining why the intensification is preferentially manifested in the southwestern subtropical gyre in published numerical model results. The paper concludes with a discussion of relevant satellite and in situ observations.

Cerovečki, I, de Szoeke RA.  2007.  Spurious instabilities of long planetary waves in a two-and-a-half layer model subtropical gyre ocean with a wind-driven steady circulation. Ocean Modelling. 16:95-105.   10.1016/j.ocemod.2006.07.004   AbstractWebsite

In a number of flows that support coupled free-waves, instability results when free-wave dispersion relations calculated without the coupling cross or approach one another. The propagation of long planetary wave perturbations of a two-and-a-half layer model subtropical gyre is one such oceanographically important instance. This note points out that, for a baroclinically unstable two-and-a-half layer model subtropical gyre, numerically aliased long wave dispersion relation plots display extra crossings that are artifacts of the discretization, and these may lead both to spurious numerical instabilities and to numerical misrepresentation of actual instabilities. Paradoxically, the numerical instability may in some instances manifest itself more strongly as the numerical resolution is improved. The aliasing mechanism may be related to the zone of small scale activity found in the southwestern corner of a time dependent model subtropical gyre in the numerical perturbation experiments of (Dewar, W., Huang, R., 2001. Adjustment of the ventilated thermocline. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 13, 293–309). Similar multilayer models are often discussed in the literature, so that the results may be widely useful.

Cerovecki, I, de Szoeke RA.  2006.  Initially forced long planetary waves in the presence of nonzonal mean flow. Journal of Physical Oceanography. 36:507-525.   10.1175/jpo2864.1   AbstractWebsite

The purpose of this paper is to understand how long planetary waves evolve when propagating in a subtropical gyre. The steady flow of a wind-driven vertically sheared model subtropical gyre is perturbed by Ekman pumping that is localized within a region of finite lateral extent and oscillates periodically at about the annual frequency after sudden initiation. Both the background flow and the infinitesimal perturbations are solutions of a 2 1/2-layer model. The region of forcing is located in the eastern part of the gyre where the steady flow is confined to the uppermost layer (shadow zone). The lateral scales of the forcing and of the response are supposed to be small enough with respect to the overall gyre scale that the background flow may be idealized as horizontally uniform, yet large enough (greater than the baroclinic Rossby radii) that the long-wave approximation may be made. The latter approximation limits the length of time over which the solutions remain valid. The solutions consist of (i) a forced response oscillating at the forcing frequency in which both stable (real) and zonally growing (complex) meridional wavenumbers are excited plus (ii) a localized transient structure that grows as it propagates away from the region of forcing. Application of the method of stationary phase provides analytical solutions that permit clear separation of the directly forced part of the solution and the transient as well as estimation of the temporal growth rate of the transient, which proves to be convectively unstable. The solutions presented here are relevant to understanding the instability of periodic (including annual period) perturbations of oceanic subtropical gyres on scales larger than the baroclinic Rossby radii of deformation.

Cerovecki, I, Orlic M, Hendershott MC.  1997.  Adriatic seiche decay and energy loss to the Mediterranean. Deep-Sea Research Part I-Oceanographic Research Papers. 44:2007-2029.   10.1016/s0967-0637(97)00056-3   AbstractWebsite

A salient feature of sea level records from the Adriatic Sea is the frequent occurrence of energetic seiches of period about 21 h. Once excited by a sudden wind event, such seiches often persist for days. They lose energy either to friction within the Adriatic, or by radiation through Otranto Strait into the Mediterranean. The free decay time of the dominant (lowest mode) seiche was determined from envelopes of bandpassed sea level residuals from three locations (Bakar, Split and Dubrovnik) along the Croatian coast during twelve seiche episodes between 1963 and 1986 by taking into consideration only time intervals when the envelopes decreased exponentially in time, when the modelled effects of along-basin winds were smaller than the error of estimation of decay time from the envelopes and when across-basin winds were small. The free decay time thus obtained was 3.2+/-0.5 d. This value is consonant with the observed width of the spectral peak. The decay caused by both bottom friction and radiation was included in a one dimensional variable cross section shallow water model of the Adriatic. Bottom friction is parameterized by the coefficient k appearing in the linearized bottom stress term k rho(0)u (where u is the along-basin velocity and eo the fluid density). The coefficient k is constrained by values obtained from linearization of the quadratic bottom stress law using estimates of near bottom currents associated with the seiche, with wind driven currents, with tides and with wind waves. Radiation is parameterized by the coefficient a appearing in the open strait boundary condition zeta = auh/c (where zeta is sea level, h is depth and c is phase speed). This parameterization of radiation provides results comparable to allowing the Adriatic to radiate into an unbounded half plane ocean. Repeated runs of the model delineate the dependence of model free seiche decay time on k and a, and these plus the estimates of k allow estimation of a. The principle conclusions of this work are as follows. (1) Exponential decay of seiche amplitude with time does not necessarily guarantee that the observed decay is free of wind influence. (2) Winds blowing across the Adriatic may be of comparable importance to winds blowing along the Adriatic in influencing apparent decay of seiches; across-basin winds are probably coupled to the longitudinal seiche on account of the strong along-basin variability of across-basin winds forced by Croatian coastal orography. (3) The free decay time of the 21.2 h Adriatic seiche is 3.2+/-0.5 d. (4) A one dimensional shallow water model of the seiche damped by bottom stress represented by Godin's (1988) approximation to the quadratic bottom friction law rho(0)C(D)u\u\ using the commonly accepted drag coefficient C-D = 0.0015 and quantitative estimates of bottom currents associated with wind driven currents, tides and wind waves, as well as with the seiche itself with no radiation gives a damping time of 9.46 d; radiation sufficient to give the observed damping time must then account for 66% of the energy loss per period. But independent estimates of bottom friction for Adriatic wind driven currents and inertial oscillations, as well as comparisons between quadratic law bottom stress and directly measured bottom stress, all suggest that the quadratic law with C-D = 0.0015 substantially underestimates the bottom stress. Based on these studies, a more appropriate value of the drag coefficient is at least C-D = 0.003. In this case, bottom friction with no radiation leads to a damping time of 4.73 d; radiation sufficient to give the observed damping time then accounts for 32% of the energy loss per period. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cerovecki, I, Pasaric Z, Kuzmic M, Brana J, Orlic M.  1991.  Ten-day variability of the summer circulation in the North Adriatic. Geofizica. 8:67-81. Abstract

Current, temperature and salinity data, collected during the ASCOP experiment that was carried out in the eastern part of the North Adriatic in summer 1989, have been analyzed together with related meteorological and hydrological data. After dividing the current series into three nearly equal subintervals, residual currents have been calculated for each of them. The major feature this exercise revealed was variability at a time scale of about ten days. A similar phenomenon has been observed by Italian researchers in the northeastern part of the Adriatic during several summers. It has been shown in the paper that the wind episodes registered during the experiment, although inducing remarkable changes in temperature and salinity records, did not directly generate the observed current variability. The changes in the Po River outflow have also been ruled out as the cause of the observed current reorientation. Temperature data collected in the area have pointed to stratification as the factor controlling the observed current variations. The stratification itself was influenced by buoyancy fluxes and wind forcing. However, further theoretical and empirical work is needed to establish conclusive evidence and elaborate dynamics of the observed phenomenon.

Cerovecki, I, Orlic M.  1989.  Modelling residual sea-level of Bakar Bay (in Croatian). Geofizica. 6:37-57. Abstract

In this paper a case of extremely high sea levels, which were recorded in the Bakar Bay on 31 January/1 February 1986, has been analyzed. The comparison of residual sea levels with synoptic weather charts and time series of both atmospheric pressure and wind over the Adriatic Sea has shown that cyclones induced two disturbances which were constructively superimposed and therefore caused extremely high sea levels. After a front passed by, the wind suddenly decreased in strength causing free oscillations (seiches) which persisted for approximately ten days. It has been shown that the influence of atmospheric pressure on the sea can well be represented by the inverted barometer effect. In order to simulate the wind effect, one-dimension hydrodynamical numerical model has been developed. It was found that the model gives good results when land-based wind data are transformed into offshore data according to empirical relation published by S. A. Hsu in 1986. Moreover, it turned out that very good agreement between the observed and predicted levels can be obtained by using the value of 5×10-4 m s-1 for bottom friction coefficient, which equals the lower limit of values cited in the literature for the Adriatic area.