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Song, XL, Zhang GJ, Cai M.  2014.  Quantifying contributions of climate feedbacks to tropospheric warming in the NCAR CCSM3.0. Climate Dynamics. 42:901-917.   10.1007/s00382-013-1805-x   AbstractWebsite

In this study, a coupled atmosphere-surface "climate feedback-response analysis method" (CFRAM) was applied to the slab ocean model version of the NCAR CCSM3.0 to understand the tropospheric warming due to a doubling of CO2 concentration through quantifying the contributions of each climate feedback process. It is shown that the tropospheric warming displays distinct meridional and vertical patterns that are in a good agreement with the multi-model mean projection from the IPCC AR4. In the tropics, the warming in the upper troposphere is stronger than in the lower troposphere, leading to a decrease in temperature lapse rate, whereas in high latitudes the opposite it true. In terms of meridional contrast, the lower tropospheric warming in the tropics is weaker than that in high latitudes, resulting in a weakened meridional temperature gradient. In the upper troposphere the meridional temperature gradient is enhanced due to much stronger warming in the tropics than in high latitudes. Using the CFRAM method, we analyzed both radiative feedbacks, which have been emphasized in previous climate feedback analysis, and non-radiative feedbacks. It is shown that non-radiative (radiative) feedbacks are the major contributors to the temperature lapse rate decrease (increase) in the tropical (polar) region. Atmospheric convection is the leading contributor to temperature lapse rate decrease in the tropics. The cloud feedback also has non-negligible contributions. In the polar region, water vapor feedback is the main contributor to the temperature lapse rate increase, followed by albedo feedback and CO2 forcing. The decrease of meridional temperature gradient in the lower troposphere is mainly due to strong cooling from convection and cloud feedback in the tropics and the strong warming from albedo feedback in the polar region. The strengthening of meridional temperature gradient in the upper troposphere can be attributed to the warming associated with convection and cloud feedback in the tropics. Since convection is the leading contributor to the warming differences between tropical lower and upper troposphere, and between the tropical and polar regions, this study indicates that tropical convection plays a critical role in determining the climate sensitivity. In addition, the CFRAM analysis shows that convective process and water vapor feedback are the two major contributors to the tropical upper troposphere temperature change, indicating that the excessive upper tropospheric warming in the IPCC AR4 models may be due to overestimated warming from convective process or underestimated cooling due to water vapor feedback.

Song, FF, Zhang GJ.  2016.  Effects of Southeastern Pacific sea surface temperature on the double-ITCZ bias in NCAR CESM1. Journal of Climate. 29:7417-7433.   10.1175/jcli-d-15-0852.1   AbstractWebsite

The double intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is a long-standing bias in the climatology of coupled general circulation models (CGCMs). The warm biases in southeastern Pacific (SEP) sea surface temperature (SST) are also evident in many CGCMs. In this study, the role of SEP SST in the double ITCZ is investigated by prescribing the observed SEP SST in the Community Earth System Model, version 1 (CESM1). Both the double ITCZ and dry equator problems are significantly improved with SEP SST prescribed. Both atmospheric and oceanic processes are involved in the improvements. The colder SST over the SEP decreases the precipitation, which enhances the southeasterly winds outside the prescribed SST region, cooling the ocean via increased evaporation. The enhanced descending motion over the SEP strengthens the Walker circulation. The easterly winds over the equatorial Pacific enhance upwelling and shoal the thermocline over the eastern Pacific. The changes of surface wind and wind curl lead to a weaker South Equatorial Countercurrent and stronger South Equatorial Current, preventing the warm water from expanding eastward, thereby improving both the double ITCZ and dry equator. The enhanced Walker circulation also increases the low-level wind convergence and reduces the wind speed in the tropical western Pacific, leading to warmer SST and stronger convection there. The stronger convection in turn leads to more cloud and reduces the incoming solar radiation, cooling the SST. These competing effects between radiative heat flux and latent heat flux make the atmospheric heat flux secondary to the ocean dynamics in the western Pacific warming.

Song, XL, Dan LB, Zhang GJ.  2010.  Increased greenhouse gases enhance regional climate response to a Maunder Minimum. Geophysical Research Letters. 37   10.1029/2009gl041290   AbstractWebsite

The climate responses to the Maunder Minimum-type total solar irradiance (TSI) decrease in the pre-industrial (PI) era and IPCC B1 global warming scenario are examined using the NCAR CAM3 coupled with a mixed-layer slab ocean model. The TSI reduction shifts the AO/NAO state to a more negative index, resulting in regional surface air temperature (SAT) change in the model. In addition, the positive sea ice-solar radiation feedback amplifies the surface cooling due to the TSI decrease. The global annual average cooling effect induced by the TSI decrease is reduced to 0.254 degrees C in the B1 scenario from 0.347 degrees C in the PI epoch, this difference being due to both the suppressed sea ice-solar radiation feedback and the stronger greenhouse effect associated with the increase of greenhouse gases. However, regional SAT changes in the B1 scenario are strengthened markedly due to the enhanced negative AO/NAO. The warming in the western Greenland, Central Asia and East Asia will be enhanced in the B1 global warming scenario when the TSI decreases. These differences in response between the B1 and PI scenarios illustrate that the impact of multi-decadal solar variation on climate depends on the atmospheric background trace gas composition. A future solar grand minimum does not offset the CO(2)-induced warming in the B1 scenario, but through the enhanced negative AO/NAO may indeed amplify the warming in certain regions. Citation: Song, X., D. Lubin, and G. J. Zhang (2010), Increased greenhouse gases enhance regional climate response to a Maunder Minimum, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L01703, doi: 10.1029/2009GL041290.

Song, XL, Zhang GJ.  2014.  Role of climate feedback in El Nino-Like SST response to global warming. Journal of Climate. 27:7301-7318.   10.1175/jcli-d-14-00072.1   AbstractWebsite

Under global warming from the doubling of CO2, the equatorial Pacific experiences an El Nino-like warming, as simulated by most global climate models. A new climate feedback and response analysis method (CFRAM) is applied to 10 years of hourly output of the slab ocean model (SOM) version of the NCAR Community Climate System Model, version 3.0, (CCSM3-SOM) to determine the processes responsible for this warming. Unlike the traditional surface heat budget analysis, the CFRAM can explicitly quantify the contributions of each radiative climate feedback and of each physical and dynamical process of a GCM to temperature changes. The mean bias in the sum of partial SST changes due to each feedback derived with CFRAM in the tropical Pacific is negligible (0.5%) compared to the mean SST change from the CCSM3-SOM simulations, with a spatial pattern correlation of 0.97 between the two. The analysis shows that the factors contributing to the El Nino-like SST warming in the central Pacific are different from those in the eastern Pacific. In the central Pacific, the largest contributor to El Nino-like SST warming is dynamical advection, followed by PBL diffusion, water vapor feedback, and surface evaporation. In contrast, in the eastern Pacific the dominant contributor to El Nino-like SST warming is cloud feedback, with water vapor feedback further amplifying the warming.

Song, XL, Wu XQ, Zhang GJ, Arritt RW.  2008.  Understanding the effects of convective momentum transport on climate simulations: The role of convective heating. Journal of Climate. 21:5034-5047.   10.1175/2008jci12187.1   AbstractWebsite

A simplified general circulation model (GCM), consisting of a complete dynamical core, simple specified physics. and convective momentum transport (CMT) forcing. is used to understand the effects of CMT on climate simulations with a focus on the role of convective heating in the response of circulation to the CMT forcing. It is found that the convective heating dominates the meridional circulation response and dynamical processes dominate the zonal wind response to the CMT forcing in the tropics: the simplified model reproduces sonic of the key features of CMT-induced circulation changes observed in the full GCM in the tropics. These results suggest that the CMT-induced zonal and meridional circulation changes in the tropics in the full GCM are dominated by dynamical processes and the convective heating, respectively. Inclusion of the CMT in the model induce,,, a marked change in convective heating, which negatively correlates with the change in vertical velocity. indicating the existence of CMT-induced convective heating-circulation feedback. The sensitivity experiment with the removal of mean convective heating feedback demonstrates that the convective heating affects the response of the meridional circulation to the CMT forcing through the CMT-induced convective heating-circulation feedback.

Song, FF, Zhang GJ.  2018.  Understanding and improving the scale dependence of trigger functions for convective parameterization using cloud-resolving model data. Journal of Climate. 31:7385-7399.   10.1175/jcli-d-17-0660.1   AbstractWebsite

As the resolution of global climate model increases, whether trigger functions in current convective parameterization schemes still work remains unknown. In this study, the scale dependence of undilute and dilute dCAPE, Bechtold, and heated condensation framework (HCF) triggers is evaluated using the cloud-resolving model (CRM) data. It is found that all these trigger functions are scale dependent, especially for dCAPE-type triggers, with skill scores dropping from similar to 0.6 at the lower resolutions (128, 64, and 32 km) to only similar to 0.1 at 4 km. The average convection frequency decreases from 14.1% at 128 km to 2.3% at 4 km in the CRM data, but it increases rapidly in the dCAPE-type triggers and is almost unchanged in the Bechtold and HCF triggers across resolutions, all leading to large overpredictions at higher resolutions. In the dCAPE-type triggers, the increased frequency is due to the increased rate of dCAPE greater than the threshold (65 J kg(-1) h(-1)) at higher resolutions. The box-and-whisker plots show that the main body of dCAPE in the correct prediction and overprediction can be separated from each other in most resolutions. Moreover, the underprediction is found to be corresponding to the decaying phase of convection. Hence, two modifications are proposed to improve the scale dependence of the undilute dCAPE trigger: 1) increasing the dCAPE threshold and 2) considering convection history, which checks whether there is convection prior to the current time. With these modifications, the skill at 16 km, 8 km, and 4 km can be increased from 0.50, 0.27, and 0.15 to 0.70, 0.61, and 0.53, respectively.

Song, XL, Zhang GJ, Cai M.  2014.  Characterizing the Climate Feedback Pattern in the NCAR CCSM3-SOM Using Hourly Data. Journal of Climate. 27:2912-2930.   10.1175/jcli-d-13-00567.1   AbstractWebsite

The climate feedback-response analysis method (CFRAM) was applied to 10-yr hourly output of the NCAR Community Climate System Model, version 3, using the slab ocean model (CCSM3-SOM), to analyze the strength and spatial distribution of climate feedbacks and to characterize their contributions to the global and regional surface temperature T-s changes in response to a doubling of CO2. The global mean bias in the sum of partial T-s changes associated with the CO2 forcing, and each feedback derived with the CFRAM analysis is about 2% of T-s change obtained directly from the CCSM3-SOM simulations. The pattern correlation between the two is 0.94, indicating that the CFRAM analysis using hourly model output is accurate and thus is appropriate for quantifying the contributions of climate feedback to the formation of global and regional warming patterns. For global mean T-s, the largest contributor to the warming is water vapor feedback, followed by the direct CO2 forcing and albedo feedback. The albedo feedback exhibits the largest spatial variation, followed by shortwave cloud feedback. In terms of pattern correlation and RMS difference with the modeled global surface warming, longwave cloud feedback contributes the most. On zonal average, albedo feedback is the largest contributor to the stronger warming in high latitudes than in the tropics. The longwave cloud feedback further amplifies the latitudinal warming contrast. Both the land-ocean warming difference and contributions of climate feedbacks to it vary with latitude. Equatorward of 50 degrees, shortwave cloud feedback and dynamical advection are the two largest contributors. The land-ocean warming difference on the hemispheric scale is mainly attributable to longwave cloud feedback and convection.

Song, FF, Zhang GJ.  2017.  Impact of tropical SSTs in the North Atlantic and Southeastern Pacific on the Eastern Pacific ITCZ. Journal of Climate. 30:1291-1305.   10.1175/jcli-d-16-0310.1   AbstractWebsite

During boreal spring, observations show a double ITCZ over the eastern Pacific, with the northern ITCZ stronger than the southern ITCZ. However, it is opposite in most climate models. It is also evident that there exists a cold bias in tropical North Atlantic (TNA) sea surface temperature (SST) and a warm bias in southeastern Pacific (SEP) SST. In this study, the influences of TNA and SEP SSTs on the double-ITCZ bias are investigated by prescribing the observed SST in these regions in the NCAR CESM1. Results show that when TNA SST is prescribed, the northern ITCZ is substantially enhanced and the southern ITCZ is moderately reduced, although the SST response in these regions is small. When the SEP SST is prescribed, the southern ITCZ is reduced considerably. When bothTNAand SEP SSTs are prescribed, the double-ITCZ bias is reduced by similar to 68%. Moisture budget analysis suggests that dynamics, mainly the low-level convergence change, determines the above precipitation changes. Based on a mixed layer model, changes in low-level convergence are shown to be determined by surface pressure P-s changes. With prescribed TNA/SEP SSTs, SST gradients change the P-s in the region directly via the Lindzen-Nigam mechanism. The corresponding low-level circulation changes affect the 850-hPa thermodynamic state in a wider region, which in turn not only strengthens the SST-induced P-s change locally but also leads to P-s changes remotely, including the northern ITCZ region. Furthermore, the low-level convergence changes the vertical structure of moist static energy, altering the atmospheric stability and modulating precipitation distribution.

Song, XL, Zhang GJ.  2011.  Microphysics parameterization for convective clouds in a global climate model: Description and single-column model tests. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres. 116   10.1029/2010jd014833   AbstractWebsite

An efficient two-moment microphysics parameterization scheme for convective clouds is developed to improve the representation of convective clouds and its interactions with stratiform clouds and aerosol in global climate models (GCMs). The scheme explicitly treats mass mixing ratio and number concentration of four hydrometeor species (cloud water, cloud ice, rain, and snow) and describes several microphysical processes, including autoconversion, self-collection, collection between hydrometeor species, freezing, cloud ice nucleation, droplet activation, and sedimentation. Thus this physically based scheme is suitable for investigating the interaction between convection and aerosol and the indirect aerosol effect on climate. An evaluation of the scheme in the single-column version of NCAR Community Atmospheric Model version 3.5 (CAM3.5) with the Tropical Warm Pool-International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) data shows that the simulation of cloud microphysical properties in convective core is significantly improved, indicating that the new parameterization describes the microphysical processes in convection reasonably well. The contribution from convective detrainment to large-scale cloud ice and liquid water budgets is enhanced greatly. With more realistic convective cloud microphysical properties and their detrainment, the surface stratiform precipitation, which is seriously underestimated in the model, is increased by a factor of roughly 2.5, and therefore is much closer to the observations. In addition, the simulations of net surface shortwave radiation flux, OLR, specific humidity, and temperature are also improved to some extent. Sensitivity experiments show that the microphysics scheme is moderately sensitive to model vertical resolution, updraft vertical velocity, and numerics, but less so to the lower boundary conditions of hydrometeor budget equations. The experiments with climatological aerosol distribution show that convective precipitation is suppressed with increasing aerosol amount, consistent with some available observations.

Song, XL, Wu XQ, Zhang GJ, Arritt RW.  2008.  Dynamical effects of convective momentum transports on global climate simulations. Journal of Climate. 21:180-194.   10.1175/2007jcli1848.1   AbstractWebsite

Dynamical effects of convective momentum transports (CMT) on global climate simulations are investigated using the NCAR Community Climate Model version 3 (CCM3). To isolate the dynamical effects of the CMT, an experimental setup is proposed in which all physical parameterizations except for the deep convection scheme are replaced with idealized forcing. The CMT scheme is incorporated into the convection scheme to calculate the CMT forcing, which is used to force the momentum equations, while convective temperature and moisture tendencies are not passed into the model calculations in order to remove the physical feedback between convective heating and wind fields. Excluding the response of complex physical processes, the model with the experimental setup contains a complete dynamical core and the CMT forcing. Comparison between two sets of 5-yr simulations using this idealized general circulation model (GCM) shows that the Hadley circulation is enhanced when the CMT forcing is included, in agreement with previous studies that used full GCMs. It suggests that dynamical processes make significant contributions to the total response of circulation to CMT forcing in the full GCMs. The momentum budget shows that the Coriolis force, boundary layer friction, and nonlinear interactions of velocity fields affect the responses of zonal wind field, and the adjustment of circulation follows an approximate geostrophic balance. The adjustment mechanism of meridional circulation in response to ageostrophic CMT forcing is examined. It is found that the strengthening of the Hadley circulation is an indirect response of the meridional wind to the zonal CMT forcing through the Coriolis effect, which is required for maintaining near-geostrophic balance.

Song, FF, Zhang GJ.  2017.  Improving trigger functions for convective parameterization schemes using GOAmazon observations. Journal of Climate. 30:8711-8726.   10.1175/jcli-d-17-0042.1   AbstractWebsite

Using observations from the Green Ocean Amazon (GOAmazon) field campaign, this study aims to improve trigger functions of convection schemes. Results show that the CAPE generation rate (dCAPE)-type triggers are the first tier and that the Bechtold and heated condensation framework (HCF) triggers are a distant second tier. The composite analysis reveals that the undilute dCAPE trigger underpredicts convection when there is bottom-heavy upward motion but overpredicts convection with low-level downward and upperlevel upward motions. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis on vertical velocity shows that EOF1 (62.65%) exhibits upward motion throughout the troposphere and that EOF2 (28.05%) has lower-level upward motion and upper-level downward motion. Both of them have close relationships with precipitation, indicating the role of vertical velocity in triggering convection. The skill sensitivity analysis shows that the inclusion of 700-hPa upward motion significantly enhances the undilute dCAPE trigger. For the dilute dCAPE trigger, entrainment rate and dCAPE threshold are optimized to improve it. Opposite to dCAPEtype triggers, the Bechtold trigger overemphasizes the low-level vertical velocity and underpredicts the mature and decaying phases of long-lasting convection events. The HCF trigger overemphasizes the nearsurface moist static energy and overlooks the vertical velocity. The performance of dCAPE-type triggers on various convective systems over the Amazon region is examined. The eastward-propagating systems are best represented, with only a few underpredictions in their decaying stages. The weak locally occurring systems and marginal phases of westward-propagating systems are easy to underpredict. The revised dCAPE-type triggers perform better on different convection systems and the diurnal cycle of convection.

Song, XL, Zhang GJ, Li JLF.  2012.  Evaluation of microphysics parameterization for convective clouds in the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model CAM5. Journal of Climate. 25:8568-8590.   10.1175/jcli-d-11-00563.1   AbstractWebsite

A physically based two-moment microphysics parameterization scheme for convective clouds is implemented in the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAMS) to improve the representation of convective clouds and their interaction with large-scale clouds and aerosols. The explicit treatment of mass mixing ratio and number concentration of cloud and precipitation particles enables the scheme to account for the impact of aerosols on convection. The scheme is linked to aerosols through cloud droplet activation and ice nucleation processes and to stratiform cloud parameterization through convective detrainment of cloud liquid/ice water content (LWC/IWC) and droplet/crystal number concentration (DNC/CNC). A 5-yr simulation with the new convective microphysics scheme shows that both cloud LWC/IWC and DNC/CNC are in good agreement with observations, indicating the scheme describes microphysical processes in convection well. Moreover, the microphysics scheme is able to represent the aerosol effects on convective clouds such as the suppression of warm rain formation and enhancement of freezing when aerosol loading is increased. With more realistic simulations of convective cloud microphysical properties and their detrainment, the mid- and low-level cloud fraction is increased significantly over the ITCZ-southern Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) and subtropical oceans, making it much closer to the observations. Correspondingly, the serious negative bias in cloud liquid water path over subtropical oceans observed in the standard CAMS is reduced markedly. The large-scale precipitation is increased and precipitation distribution is improved as well. The long-standing precipitation bias in the western Pacific is significantly alleviated because of microphysics-thermodynamics feedbacks.

Song, XL, Zhang GJ.  2009.  Convection parameterization, tropical Pacific double ITCZ, and upper-ocean biases in the NCAR CCSM3. Part I: Climatology and atmospheric feedback. Journal of Climate. 22:4299-4315.   10.1175/2009jcli2642.1   AbstractWebsite

The role of convection parameterization in the formation of double ITCZ and associated upper-ocean biases in the NCAR Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3) is investigated by comparing the simulations using the original and revised Zhang-McFarlane (ZM) convection schemes. Ten-year model climatologies show that the simulation with the original ZM scheme produces a typical double ITCZ bias, whereas all biases related to the spurious double ITCZ and overly strong cold tongue in precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST), wind stress, ocean thermocline, upper-ocean currents, temperature, and salinity are dramatically reduced when the revised ZM scheme is used. These results demonstrate that convection parameterization plays a critical role in the formation of double ITCZ bias in the CCSM3. To understand the physical mechanisms through which the modifications of the convection scheme in the atmospheric model alleviate the double ITCZ bias in the CCSM3, the authors investigate the impacts of convection schemes on the atmospheric forcing and feedback in the uncoupled Community Atmospheric Model, version 3 (CAM3). It is shown that the CAM3 simulation with the original ZM scheme also produces a signature of double ITCZ bias in precipitation, whereas the simulation with the revised ZM scheme does not. Diagnostic analyses have identified three factors on the atmospheric side (i.e., the sensitivity of convection to SST, the convection-shortwave flux-SST feedback, and the convection-wind-evaporation-SST feedback) that may contribute to the differences in the coupled simulations.

Song, XL, Zhang GJ.  2018.  The roles of convection parameterization in the formation of double ITCZ Syndrome in the NCAR CESM: I. Atmospheric Processes. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems. 10:842-866.   10.1002/2017ms001191   AbstractWebsite

Several improvements are implemented in the Zhang-McFarlane (ZM) convection scheme to investigate the roles of convection parameterization in the formation of double intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) bias in the NCAR CESM1.2.1. It is shown that the prominent double ITCZ biases of precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST), and wind stress in the standard CESM1.2.1 are largely eliminated in all seasons with the use of these improvements in convection scheme. This study for the first time demonstrates that the modifications of convection scheme can eliminate the double ITCZ biases in all seasons, including boreal winter and spring. Further analysis shows that the elimination of the double ITCZ bias is achieved not by improving other possible contributors, such as stratus cloud bias off the west coast of South America and cloud/radiation biases over the Southern Ocean, but by modifying the convection scheme itself. This study demonstrates that convection scheme is the primary contributor to the double ITCZ bias in the CESM1.2.1, and provides a possible solution to the long-standing double ITCZ problem. The atmospheric model simulations forced by observed SST show that the original ZM convection scheme tends to produce double ITCZ bias in high SST scenario, while the modified convection scheme does not. The impact of changes in each core component of convection scheme on the double ITCZ bias in atmospheric model is identified and further investigated.

Storer, RL, Zhang GJ, Song XL.  2015.  Effects of convective microphysics parameterization on large-scale cloud hydrological cycle and radiative budget in tropical and midlatitude convective regions. Journal of Climate. 28:9277-9297.   10.1175/jcli-d-15-0064.1   AbstractWebsite

A two-moment microphysics scheme for deep convection was previously implemented in the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) by Song et al. The new scheme improved hydrometeor profiles in deep convective clouds and increased deep convective detrainment, reducing the negative biases in low and midlevel cloud fraction and liquid water path compared to observations. Here, the authors examine in more detail the impacts of this improved microphysical representation on regional-scale water and radiation budgets. As a primary source of cloud water for stratiform clouds is detrainment from deep and shallow convection, the enhanced detrainment leads to larger stratiform cloud fractions, higher cloud water content, and more stratiform precipitation over the ocean, particularly in the subtropics where convective frequency is also increased. This leads to increased net cloud radiative forcing. Over land regions, cloud amounts are reduced as a result of lower relative humidity, leading to weaker cloud forcing and increased OLR. Comparing the water budgets to cloud-resolving model simulations shows improvement in the partitioning between convective and stratiform precipitation, though the deep convection is still too active in the GCM. The addition of convective microphysics leads to an overall improvement in the regional cloud water budgets.

Subramanian, AC, Zhang GJ.  2014.  Diagnosing MJO hindcast biases in NCAR CAM3 using nudging during the DYNAMO field campaign. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres. 119:7231-7253.   10.1002/2013jd021370   AbstractWebsite

This study evaluates the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) hindcast skill and investigates the hindcast biases in the dynamic and thermodynamic fields of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model version 3. The analysis is based on the October 2011 MJO event observed during the Dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation field campaign. The model captures the MJO initiation but, compared to the observations, the hindcast has a faster MJO phase speed, a dry relative humidity bias, a stronger zonal wind shear, and a weaker MJO peak amplitude. The MJO hindcast is then nudged toward the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast Reanalysis fields of temperature, specific humidity, horizontal winds, and surface pressure. The nudging tendencies highlight the model physics parameterization biases, such as not enough convective diabatic heating during the MJO initiation, not enough upper tropospheric stratiform condensation, and lower tropospheric reevaporation during the mature and decay phases and a strong zonal wind shear during the MJO evolution. To determine the role of temperature, specific humidity, and horizontal winds in the model physics parameterization errors, six additional nudging experiments are carried out, with either one or two of the fields allowed to evolve freely while the others are nudged. Results show that convection and precipitation increase when temperature or specific humidity are unconstrained and decrease when horizontal winds evolve freely or temperature alone is constrained to reanalysis. Budget analysis of moist static energy shows that the nudging tendency compensates for different process biases during different MJO phases. The diagnosis of such nudging tendencies provides a unique objective way to identify model physics biases, which usefully guides the model physics parameterization development.

Suhas, E, Zhang GJ.  2015.  Evaluating convective parameterization closures using cloud-resolving model simulation of tropical deep convection. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres. 120:1260-1277.   10.1002/2014jd022246   AbstractWebsite

Closure is an important component of a mass flux-based convective parameterization scheme, and it determines the amount of convection with the aid of a large-scale variable (closure variable) that is sensitive to convection. In this study, we have evaluated and quantified the relationship between commonly used closure variables and convection for a range of global climate model (GCM) horizontal resolutions, taking convective precipitation and mass flux at 600 hPa as measures for deep convection. We have used cloud-resolving model simulation data to create domain averages representing GCM horizontal resolutions of 128km, 64 km, 32 km, 16 km, 8 km, and 4km. Lead-lag correlation analysis shows that except moisture convergence and turbulent kinetic energy, none of the other closure variables evaluated in this study show any relationship with convection for the six subdomain sizes. It is found that the correlation between moisture convergence and convective precipitation is largest when moisture convergence leads convection. This correlation weakens as the subdomain size decreases to 8km or smaller. Although convective precipitation and mass flux increase with moisture convergence at a given subdomain size, as the subdomain size increases, the rate at which they increase becomes smaller. This suggests that moisture convergence-based closure should scale down the predicted mass flux for a given moisture convergence as GCM resolution increases.

Suhas, E, Zhang GJ.  2014.  Evaluation of trigger functions for convective parameterization schemes using observations. Journal of Climate. 27:7647-7666.   10.1175/jcli-d-13-00718.1   AbstractWebsite

Realistic simulation of different modes of atmospheric variability ranging from diurnal cycle to interannual variation in global climate models (GCMs) depends crucially on the convection trigger criteria. In this study, using the data from constrained variational analysis by the Atmospheric System Research program for single-column models (SCM), the performance of the commonly used convective trigger functions in GCMs is evaluated based on the equitable threat score (ETS) value, a widely used forecast verification metric. From the ETS score, three consistently better-performing trigger functions were identified. They are based on the dilute and undilute convective available potential energy (CAPE) generation rate from large-scale forcing in the free troposphere (hereafter dCAPE) and parcel buoyancy at the lifting condensation level (Bechtold scheme). The key variables used to define these trigger functions are examined in detail. It is found that the dilute dCAPE trigger function performs the best consistently in both the tropical and midlatitude convective environment. Analysis of the composite fields of key variables of the trigger functions, based on the correct prediction, overprediction and underprediction of convection, and correct prediction of no-convection cases for convective onset, brings to light some critical factors responsible for the performance of the trigger functions. The lower-tropospheric advective forcing in dilute dCAPE trigger and vertical velocity in Bechtold trigger are identified to be the most importance ones. Suggestions are offered for further improvements.