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Carnevale, GF, Purini R, Orlandi P, Cavazza P.  1995.  Barotropic quasi-geostrophic f-plane flow over anisotropic topography. Journal of Fluid Mechanics. 285:329-347.   10.1017/s0022112095000565   AbstractWebsite

For an anisotropic topographic feature in a large-scale flow, the orientation of the topography with respect to the flow will affect the vorticity production that results from the topography-flow interaction. This in turn affects the amount of form drag that the ambient flow experiences. Numerical simulations and perturbation theory are used to explore these effects of change in topographic orientation. The flow is modelled as a quasi-geostrophic homogeneous fluid on anf-plane. The topography is taken to be a hill of limited extent, with an elliptical cross-section in the horizontal. It is shown that, as a result of a basic asymmetry of the quasi-geostrophic flow, the strength of the form drag depends not only on the magnitude of the angle that the topographic axis makes with the oncoming stream, but also on the sign of this angle. For sufficiently low topography, it is found that a positive angle of attack leads to a stronger form drag than that for the corresponding negative angle. For strong topography, this relation is reversed, with the negative angle then resulting in the stronger form drag.

Carnevale, GE, Smith SGL, Crisciani F, Purini R, Serravall R.  1999.  Bifurcation of a coastal current at an escarpment. Journal of Physical Oceanography. 29:969-985.   10.1175/1520-0485(1999)029<0969:boacca>2.0.co;2   AbstractWebsite

The evolution of a coastal current as it encounters an escarpment depends strongly on whether the geometry of the coast and escarpment is right or left "handed," independent of the direction of the coastal current. Handedness is defined such that right-handed means that when looking across the escarpment from the deep to the shallow side, the coast is found on the right. The essential aspects of the difference in behavior of the current in the two geometries are captured by a simple quasigeostrophic model of coastal flow over a step. An exact analytic solution to the nonlinear stationary problem is obtained. This solution shows that, when a coastal current crosses an escarpment in the left-handed geometry, the speed of the current will increase independent of whether the flow is from shallow to deep or from deep to shallow. For the right-handed geometry, the speed of the current decreases, also independent of the direction of the coastal flow. In the left (right)-handed geometry, there is associated to the coastal flow an inshore (offshore) current along the escarpment. These results are explained in terms of linear wave theory and vortex dynamics. Numerical simulations are used to examine the evolution of the flow from the initial encounter to the establishment of a stationary flow. The relevance of this research is discussed in light of recent results from laboratory experiments and oceanic observations.

Carnevale, GF, Briscolini M, Orlandi P.  2001.  Buoyancy- to inertial-range transition in forced stratified turbulence. Journal of Fluid Mechanics. 427:205-239.   10.1017/s002211200000241x   AbstractWebsite

The buoyancy range, which represents a transition from large-scale wave-dominated motions to small-scale turbulence in the oceans and the atmosphere, is investigated through large-eddy simulations. The model presented here uses a continual forcing based on large-scale standing internal waves and has a spectral truncation in the isotropic inertial range. Evidence is presented for a break in the energy spectra from the anisotropic k(-3) buoyancy range to the small-scale k(-5/3) isotropic inertial range. Density structures that form during wave breaking and periods of high strain rate are analysed. Elongated vertical structures produced during periods of strong straining motion are found to collapse in the subsequent vertically compressional phase of the strain resulting in a zone or patch of mixed fluid.

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Kloosterziel, RC, Carnevale GF.  2003.  Closed-form linear stability conditions for magneto-convection. Journal of Fluid Mechanics. 490:333-344.   10.1017/s0022112003005329   AbstractWebsite

Chandrasekhar (1961) extensively investigated the linear dynamics of Rayleigh-Benard convection in an electrically conducting fluid exposed to a uniform vertical magnetic field and enclosed by rigid, stress-free, upper and lower boundaries. He determined the marginal stability boundary and critical horizontal wavenumbers for the onset of convection as a function of the Chandrasekhar number Q or Hartmann number squared. No closed-form formulae appeared to exist and the results were tabulated numerically. We have discovered simple expressions that concisely describe the stability properties of the system. When the Prandtl number Pr is greater than or equal to the magnetic Prandtl number Pm the marginal stability boundary is described by the curve Q = pi(-2)[R - (RcR2/3)-R-1/3] where R is the Rayleigh number and R-c = (27/4)pi(4) is Rayleigh's famous critical value for the onset of stationary convection in the absence of a magnetic field (Q = 0). When Pm > Pr the marginal stability boundary is determined by this curve until intersected by the curve Q = 1/pi(2)[Pm-2(1 + Pr)/Pr-2(1 + Pm)R - ((1 + Pr)(Pr + Pm)/Pr-2)(1/3) (Pm-2(1 + Pr)/Pr-2(1 + Pm))(2/3) (RcR2/3)-R-1/3]. An expression for the intersection point is derived and also for the critical horizontal wavenumbers for which instability sets in along the marginal stability boundary either as stationary convection or in an oscillatory fashion. A simple formula is derived for the frequency of the oscillations. Also we show that in the limit of vanishing magnetic diffusivity, or infinite electrical conductivity, the system is unstable for sufficiently large R. Instability in this limit always sets in via overstability.

Kloosterziel, RC, Carnevale GF.  2003.  Closed-form linear stability conditions for rotating Rayleigh-Benard convection with rigid stress-free upper and lower boundaries. Journal of Fluid Mechanics. 480:25-42.   10.1017/s0022112002003294   AbstractWebsite

The linear dynamics of rotating Rayleigh-Benard convection with rigid stress-free boundaries has been thoroughly investigated by Chandrasekhar (1961) who determined the marginal stability boundary and critical horizontal wavenumbers for the onset of convection and overstability as a function of the Taylor number T. No closed-form formulae appeared to exist and the results were tabulated numerically. However, by taking the Rayleigh number R as independent variable we have found remarkably simple expressions. When the Prandtl number P greater than or equal to P-c = 0.67659, the marginal stability boundary is described by the curve T(R) = R[(R/R-c)(1/2) - 1] where R-c = 27/4pi(4) is Rayleigh's famous critical value for the onset of stationary convection in a non-rotating system (T = 0). For P < P-c the marginal stability boundary is determined by this curve until it is intersected by the curve T(R, P) = R [(1+P/2(3) P-4)(1/2) (R/R-c)(1/2) - 1 + P/2P(2)]. A simple expression for the intersection point is derived and also for the critical horizontal wavenumbers for which, along the marginal stability boundary, instability sets in either as stationary convection or in an oscillatory fashion. A simple formula is derived for the frequency of the oscillations. Further, we have analytically determined critical points on the marginal stability boundary above which an increase of either viscosity or diffusivity is destabilizing. Finally, we show that if the fluid has zero viscosity the system is always unstable, in contradiction to Chandrasekhar's conclusion.

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Carnevale, GF, Cavallini F, Crisciani F.  2001.  Dynamic boundary conditions revisited. Journal of Physical Oceanography. 31:2489-2497.   10.1175/1520-0485(2001)031<2489:dbcr>2.0.co;2   AbstractWebsite

The applicability of the super-slip boundary condition in wind-driven quasigeostrophic ocean circulation models is reexamined. The energy and enstrophy characteristics of the super-slip condition are discussed for the equilibrium state. A model is constructed with super-slip on the western boundary and free slip on the other boundaries. Both linear and nonlinear solutions are presented. Compared to the case with all free-slip boundaries, this new model gives a more energetic and narrower western boundary current, but otherwise the differences are not very great.

Verzicco, R, Orlandi P, Eisenga AHM, vanHeijst GJF, Carnevale GF.  1996.  Dynamics of a vortex ring in a rotating fluid. Journal of Fluid Mechanics. 317:215-239.   10.1017/s0022112096000730   AbstractWebsite

The formation and the evolution of axisymmetric vortex rings in a uniformly rotating fluid, with the rotation axis orthogonal to the ring vorticity, have been investigated by numerical and laboratory experiments. The flow dynamics turned out to be strongly affected by the presence of the rotation. In particular, as the background rotation increases, the translation velocity of the ring decreases, a structure with opposite circulation forms ahead of the ring and an intense axial vortex is generated on the axis of symmetry in the tail of the ring. The occurrence of these structures has been explained by the presence of a self-induced swirl flow and by inspection of the extra terms in the Navier-Stokes equations due to rotation. Although in the present case the swirl was generated by the vortex ring itself, these results are in agreement with those of Virk et al. (1994) for polarized vortex rings, in which the swirl flow was initially assigned as a 'degree of polarization'. If the rotation rate is further increased beyond a certain value, the flow starts to be dominated by Coriolis forces. In this flow regime, the impulse imparted to the fluid no longer generates a vortex ring, but rather it excites inertial waves allowing the flow to radiate energy. Evidence of this phenomenon is shown. Finally, some three-dimensional numerical results are discussed in order to justify some asymmetries observed in flow visualizations.

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Carnevale, GF, Kloosterziel RC.  1994.  Emergence and evolution of triangular vortices. Journal of Fluid Mechanics. 259:305-331.   10.1017/s0022112094000157   AbstractWebsite

Laboratory observations and numerical simulations reveal that, in addition to monopoles, dipoles and tripoles, yet another stable coherent vortex may emerge from unstable isolated circular vortices. This new vortex is the finite-amplitude result of the growth of an azimuthal wavenumber-3 perturbation. It consists of a triangular core of single-signed vorticity surrounded by three semicircular satellites of oppositely signed vorticity. The stability of this triangular vortex is analysed through a series of high-resolution numerical simulations and by an investigation of point-vortex models. This new compound vortex rotates about its centre and is stable to small perturbations. If perturbed strongly enough, it undergoes an instability in which two of the outer satellites merge, resulting in the formation of an axisymmetric tripole, which subsequently breaks down into either a pair of dipoles or a dipole plus a monopole. The growth of higher-azimuthal-wavenumber perturbations leads to the formation of more intricate compound vortices with cores in the shape of squares, pentagons, etc. However, numerical simulations show that these vortices are unstable, which agrees with results from point-vortex models.

Kloosterziel, RC, Carnevale GF, Orlandi P.  2017.  Equatorial inertial instability with full Coriolis force. Journal of Fluid Mechanics. 825:69-108.   10.1017/jfm.2017.377   AbstractWebsite

The zonally symmetric inertial instability of oceanic near-equatorial flows is studied through high-resolution numerical simulations. In homogeneous upper layers, the instability of surface-confined westward currents implies potentially fast downward mixing of momentum with a predictable final equilibrium. With increasing Reynolds number, latitudinal scales along the surface associated with the instability become ever smaller and initially the motions are ever more concentrated underneath the surface. The results suggest that even if the upper layer is stratified, it may still be necessary to include the full Coriolis force in the dynamics rather than use the traditional beta-plane approximation.

Carnevale, GF, Kloosterziel RC, Orlandi P.  2016.  Equilibration of centrifugally unstable vortices: A review. European Journal of Mechanics B-Fluids. 55:246-258.   10.1016/j.euromechflu.2015.06.007   AbstractWebsite

In three-dimensional flow, a vortex can become turbulent and be destroyed through a variety of instabilities. In rotating flow, however, the result of the breakup of a vortex is usually a state comprising several vortices with their axes aligned along the ambient rotation direction. This article is a review of our recent work on how the combined effect of centrifugal and barotropic instabilities can breakup a vortex and lead to its reformation in a predictable way even though an intermediate stage in the evolution is turbulent. Centrifugal instability tends to force the unstable vortex into a turbulent state that mixes absolute angular momentum in such a way as to precondition the flow for a subsequent barotropic instability. A method for predicting the redistribution of angular momentum and theresulting velocity profile is discussed. The barotropic instability horizontally redistributes the component of vorticity that is aligned along the ambient rotation vector, resulting in the final byproducts of the instability, which are stabilized by the effects of ambient rotation. A prediction scheme that puts the tendencies of these two instabilities together proves to be very reliable. (C) 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Koniges, AE, Crotinger JA, Dannevik WP, Carnevale GF, Diamond PH.  1991.  Equilibrium spectra and implications for a two‐field turbulence model. Physics of Plasmas. 3:1297-1299.   10.1063/1.859822   Abstract

Analytic expressions are given for statistical mechanical equilibrium solutions of two‐field turbulence model equations that are used in describing plasma drift waves and for passive scalar advection in a neutral fluid. These are compared with those previously proposed [Phys. Fluids B 1, 1331 (1989)], in particular regarding the role of the cross correlations between fields. Implications for two‐point closure calculations are discussed.

Orlandi, P, Carnevale GF.  1999.  Evolution of isolated vortices in a rotating fluid of finite depth. Journal of Fluid Mechanics. 381:239-269.   10.1017/s0022112098003693   AbstractWebsite

Laboratory experiments have shown that monopolar isolated vortices in a rotating flow undergo instabilities that result in the formation of multipolar vortex states such as dipoles and tripoles. In some cases the instability is entirely two-dimensional, with the vortices taking the form of vortex columns aligned along the direction of the ambient rotation at all times. In other cases, the vortex first passes through a highly turbulent three-dimensional state before eventually reorganizing into vortex columns. Through a series of three-dimensional numerical simulations, the roles that centrifugal instability, barotropic instability, and the bottom Ekman boundary layer play in these instabilities are investigated. Evidence is presented that the centrifugal instability can trigger the barotropic instabilities by the enhancement of vorticity gradients. It is shown that the bottom Ekman layer is not essential to these instabilities but can strongly modify their evolution.

Carnevale, GF, McWilliams JC, Pomeau Y, Weiss JB, Young WR.  1991.  Evolution of vortex statistics in two-dimensional turbulence. Physical Review Letters. 66:2735-2737.   10.1103/PhysRevLett.66.2735   AbstractWebsite

Freely evolving two-dimensional turbulence is dominated by coherent vortices. The density of these vortices decays in time as rho approximately t^-ɛ with ɛ almost-equal-to 0.75. A new scaling theory is proposed which expresses all statistical properties in terms of ɛ. Thus the average circulation of the vortices increases as t^ɛ/2 and their average radius as t^ɛ/4. The total energy is constant, the enstrophy decreases as t^ɛ/2, and the vorticity kurtosis increases as t^ɛ/2. These results are supported both by numerical simulations of the fluid equations and by solutions of a modified point-vortex model.

Zavala Sanson, L, Serravall R, Carnevale GF, vanHeijst GJF.  2005.  Experiments and simulations on coastal flows in the presence of a topographic slope. Journal of Physical Oceanography. 35:2204-2218.   10.1175/jpo2815.1   AbstractWebsite

The evolution of a barotropic coastal current in the presence of a bottom ramp-shaped topography is studied by means of laboratory experiments and numerical simulations. The experiments are performed in a rectangular rotating tank filled with freshwater. The fluid depth is shallow at one side of the domain and deeper at the other side, and both regions are divided by a narrow slope, whose depth contours are perpendicular to the long sides of the tank. A current approaching the slope is produced along one of the vertical walls, having the boundary at its right. Two configurations are analyzed: when the current flows from shallow to deep water and when flowing in the opposite direction. In the first scenario, the current is divided in two parts, one of them following the coastline. The other part of the current pairs with a cell of negative relative vorticity generated at the slope due to squeezing effects, forming a dipolar structure moving offshore, back toward the shallow side. In addition, a weak current moving inshore along the slope is clearly formed. In the second configuration, when the flow goes from deep to shallow water, a part of or even the whole current might be forced to move along the contours of the topography, away from the coast. In this case there is no dipole formation. The experiments are well reproduced by means of quasigeostrophic numerical simulations, which allow a more detailed systematic study of the influence of flow parameters such as the topography height and the width of the slope.

Carnevale, GF, Cavazza P, Orlandi P, Purini R.  1991.  An explanation for anomalous vortex merger in rotating‐tank experiments. Physics of Fluids a-Fluid Dynamics. 3:1411-1415.   10.1063/1.858019   AbstractWebsite

Theory and simulations based on the two-dimensional Euler equation predict a critical distance of separation for the merger of two like-signed vortices. By the symmetry of the equation, this separation must be the same for both cyclone and anticyclone pairs. In rotating-tank experiments, the observed critical separation distance for anticyclone merger is in accord with predictions; however, pairs of cyclones have been found to merge in all cases examined, even with separations substantially greater than the predicted critical separation. The hypothesis that this discrepancy is due to the presence of Ekman volume fluxes, which are not incorporated in the two-dimensional theory, is examined and found not quantitatively supportable. A second hypothesis is that the parabolic curvature of the free upper surface of the fluid in the rotating tank induces motion of the cyclones toward the center of the tank and hence promotes the cyclone pair merger. Quasigeostrophic simulations which capture this "topography effect" show good agreement with the rotating-tank experiments.

Vallis, GK, Carnevale GF, Young WR.  1989.  Extremal energy properties and construction of stable solutions of the Euler equations. Journal of Fluid Mechanics. 207:133-152.   10.1017/s0022112089002533   AbstractWebsite

Certain modifications of the Euler equations of fluid motion lead to systems in which the energy decays or grows monotonically, yet which preserve other dynamically important characteristics of the field. In particular, all topological invariants associated with the vorticity field are preserved. In cases where isolated energy extrema exist, a stable steady flow can be found. In two dimensions, highly constrained by vorticity invariants, it is shown that the modified dynamics will lead to at least one non-trivial stationary, generally stable, solution of the equations of motion from any initial conditions. Numerical implementation of the altered dynamics is straightforward, and thus provides a practical method for finding stable flows. The method is sufficiently general to be of use in other dynamical systems.Insofar as three-dimensional turbulence is characterized by a cascade of energy, but not topological invariants, from large to small scales, the procedure has direct physical significance. It may be useful as a parameterization of the effects of small unresolved scales on those explicitly resolved in a calculation of turbulent flow.

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Carnevale, GF, Martin PC.  1982.  Field theoretical techniques in statistical fluid dynamics: With application to nonlinear wave dynamics. Geophysical and Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics. 20:131-164.   10.1080/03091928208209002   AbstractWebsite

A derivation of two-point Markovian closure is presented in classical statistical field theory formalism. It is emphasized that the procedures used in this derivation are equivalent to those employed in the quantum statistical field theory derivation of the Boltzmann equation. Application of these techniques to the study of two-dimensional flow on a β-plane yields a quasi-homogeneous, quasi-stationary transport equation and a renormalized dispersion relation for Rossby waves

Dietrich, D, Carnevale GF, Orlandi P.  2007.  Flow over the Mid Adriatic Pit. Nuovo Cimento Della Societa Italiana Di Fisica C-Geophysics and Space Physics. 30:277-290.   10.1393/ncc/i2007-10242-x   AbstractWebsite

The influence of the Mid Adriatic Pit (MAP) on the general circulation of the Adriatic is explored through numerical simulations. The numerical code used is the DieCAST model specifically modified for application to the Adriatic Sea. A ten-year simulation is performed and the ability of the model to capture important features of the Adriatic circulation is demonstrated. A series of numerical experiments on the importance of the MAP on the general circulation is performed. It is demonstrated that the current over the northern flank of the MAP, which flows from the Croatian toward the Italian coast, is primarily a topographic current and that such a current would reverse direction if the gradient of the bathymetry were reversed.

Carnevale, GF, Falcioni M, Isola S, Purini R, Vulpiani A.  1991.  Fluctuation‐response relations in systems with chaotic behavior. Physics of Fluids a-Fluid Dynamics. 3:2247-2254.   10.1063/1.857905   AbstractWebsite

The statistics of systems with good chaotic properties obey a formal fluctuation-response relation which gives the average linear response of a dynamical system to an external perturbation in terms of two-time correlation functions. Unfortunately, except for particularly simple cases, the appropriate form of correlation function is unknown because an analytic expression for the invariant density is lacking. The simplest situation is that in which the probability distribution is Gaussian. In that case, the fluctuation-response relation is a linear relation between the response matrix and the two-time two-point correlation matrix. Some numerical computations have been carried out in low-dimensional models of hydrodynamic systems. The results show that fluctuation-response relation for Gaussian distributions is not a useful approximation. Nevertheless, these calculations show that, even for non-Gaussian statistics, the response function and the two-time correlations can have similar qualitative features, which may be attributed to the existence of the more general fluctuation-response relation.

Kloosterziel, RC, Carnevale GF.  1992.  Formal stability of circular vortices. Journal of Fluid Mechanics. 242:249-278.   10.1017/s0022112092002362   AbstractWebsite

The second variation of a linear combination of energy and angular momentum is used to investigate the formal stability of circular vortices. The analysis proceeds entirely in terms of Lagrangian displacements to overcome problems that otherwise arise when one attempts to use Arnol'd's Eulerian formalism. Specific attention is paid to the simplest possible model of an isolated vortex consisting of a core of constant vorticity surrounded by a ring of oppositely signed vorticity. We prove that the linear stability regime for this vortex coincides with the formal stability regime. The fact that there are formally stable isolated vortices could imply that there are provable nonlinearly stable isolated vortices. The method can be applied to more complicated vortices consisting of many nested rings of piecewise-constant vorticity. The equivalent expressions for continuous vorticity distributions are also derived.

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Kloosterziel, RC, Carnevale GF.  2007.  Generalized energetics for inertially stable parallel shear flows. Journal of Fluid Mechanics. 585:117-126.   10.1017/s0022112007006933   AbstractWebsite

For simple parallel shear flows on the f-plane and the equatorial beta-plane we derive an energy norm for zonally invariant perturbations. It is used to derive the linear stability boundary for when these flows are inertially stable in the classical sense but may be destabilized due to unequal rates of diffusion of momentum and heat. The analysis is valid when there are arbitrary, zonally invariant, no-slip boundaries which are perfect thermal conductors.

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Carnevale, GF, Frisch U, Salmon R.  1981.  H theorems in statistical fluid dynamics. Journal of Physics a-Mathematical and General. 14:1701-1718.   10.1088/0305-4470/14/7/026   AbstractWebsite

It is demonstrated that the second-order Markovian closures frequently used in turbulence theory imply an H theorem for inviscid flow with an ultraviolet spectral cut-off. That is, from the inviscid closure equations, it follows that a certain functional of the energy spectrum (namely entropy) increases monotonically in time to a maximum value at absolute equilibrium. This is shown explicitly for isotropic homogeneous flow in dimensions d>or=2, and then a generalised theorem which covers a wide class of systems of current interest is presented. It is shown that the H theorem for closure can be derived from a Gibbs-type H theorem for the exact non-dissipative dynamics.

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Carnevale, GF, Kloosterziel RC, Orlandi P.  2013.  Inertial and barotropic instabilities of a free current in three-dimensional rotating flow. Journal of Fluid Mechanics. 725:117-151.   10.1017/jfm.2013.191   AbstractWebsite

A current in a homogeneous rotating fluid is subject to simultaneous inertial and barotropic instabilities. Inertial instability causes rapid mixing of streamwise absolute linear momentum and alters the vertically averaged velocity profile of the current. The resulting profile can be predicted by a construction based on absolute-momentum conservation. The alteration of the mean velocity profile strongly affects how barotropic instability will subsequently change the flow. If a current with a symmetric distribution of cyclonic and anticyclonic vorticity undergoes only barotropic instability, the result will be cyclones and anticyclones of the same shape and amplitude. Inertial instability breaks this symmetry. The combined effect of inertial and barotropic instability produces anticyclones that are broader and weaker than the cyclones. A two-step scheme for predicting the result of the combined inertial and barotropic instabilities is proposed and tested. This scheme uses the construction for the redistribution of streamwise absolute linear momentum to predict the mean current that results from inertial instability and then uses this equilibrated current as the initial condition for a two- dimensional simulation that predicts the result of the subsequent barotropic instability. Predictions are made for the evolution of a Gaussian jet and are compared with three-dimensional simulations for a range of Rossby numbers. It is demonstrated that the actual redistribution of absolute momentum in the three-dimensional simulations is well predicted by the construction used here. Predictions are also made for the final number and size of vortices that result from the combined inertial and barotropic instabilities.

Kloosterziel, RC, Carnevale GF, Orlandi P.  2007.  Inertial instability in rotating and stratified fluids: barotropic vortices. Journal of Fluid Mechanics. 583:379-412.   10.1017/s0022112007006325   AbstractWebsite

The unfolding of inertial instability in intially barotropic vortices in a uniformly rotating and stratified fluid is studied through numerical simulations. The vortex dynamics during the instability is examined in detail. We demonstrate that the instability is stabilized via redistribution of angular momentum in a way that produces a new equilibrated barotropic vortex with a stable velocity profile. Based on extrapolations from the results of a series of simulations in which the Reynolds number and strength of stratification are varied, we arrive at a construction based on angular momentum mixing that predicts the infinite-Reynolds-number form of the equilibrated vortex toward which inertial instability drives an unstable vortex. The essential constraint is conservation of total absolute angular momentum. The construction can be used to predict the total energy loss during the equilibration process. It also shows that the equilibration process can result in anticyclones that are more susceptible to horizontal shear instabilities than they were initially, a phenomenon previously observed in laboratory and numerical studies.

Carnevale, GF, Holloway G.  1982.  Information decay and the predictability of turbulent flows. Journal of Fluid Mechanics. 116:115-121.   10.1017/s0022112082000391   AbstractWebsite

A measure of predictability that has many superior features compared to currently used measures is introduced. Through statistical theory it is demonstrated that in inviscid truncated flow this new predictability measure increases monotonically in time while all initial information about the system decays. Under the influence of forcing and viscosity the behaviour of this measure is shown always to satisfy intuitive expectations.