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2018
Davies, CJ, Constable CG.  2018.  Searching for geomagnetic spikes in numerical dynamo simulations. Earth and Planetary Science Letters. 504:72-83.   10.1016/j.epsl.2018.09.037   AbstractWebsite

We use numerical dynamo simulations to investigate rapid changes in geomagnetic field intensity. The work is motivated by paleomagnetic observations of 'geomagnetic spikes', events where the field intensity rose and then fell by a factor of 2-3 over decadal timescales and a confined spatial region. No comparable events have been found in the historical record and so geomagnetic spikes may contain new and important information regarding the operation of the geodynamo. However, they are also controversial because uncertainties and resolution limitations in the available data hinder efforts to define their spatiotemporal characteristics. This has led to debate over whether such extreme events can originate in Earth's liquid core. Geodynamo simulations produce high spatio-temporal resolution intensity information, but must be interpreted with care since they cannot yet run at the conditions of Earth's liquid core. We employ reversing and non-reversing geodynamo simulations run at different physical conditions and consider various methods of scaling the results to allow comparison with Earth. In each simulation we search for 'extremal events', defined as the maximum intensity difference between consecutive time points, at each location on a 2 degrees latitude-longitude grid at Earth's surface, thereby making no assumptions regarding the spatio-temporal character of the event. Extremal events display spike-shaped time-series in some simulations, though they can often be asymmetric about the peak intensity. Maximum rates of change reach 0.75 mu Tyr(-1) in several simulations, the lower end of estimates for spikes, suggesting that such events can originate from the core. The fastest changes generally occur at latitudes > 50 degrees, which could be used to guide future data acquisitions. Extremal events in the simulations arise from rapid intensification of flux patches as they migrate across the core surface, rather than emergence of flux from within the core. The prospect of observing more spikes in the paleomagnetic record appears contingent on finding samples at the right location and time to sample this particular phase of flux patch evolution. (C) 2018 Published by Elsevier B.V.

2014
Davies, CJ, Constable CG.  2014.  Insights from geodynamo simulations into long-term geomagnetic field behaviour. Earth and Planetary Science Letters. 404:238-249.   10.1016/j.epsl.2014.07.042   AbstractWebsite

Detailed knowledge of the long-term spatial configuration and temporal variability of the geomagnetic field is lacking because of insufficient data for times prior to 10 ka. We use realisations from suitable numerical simulations to investigate three important questions about stability of the geodynamo process: is the present field representative of the past field; does a time-averaged field actually exist; and, supposing it exists, how long is needed to define such a field. Numerical geodynamo simulations are initially selected to meet existing criteria for morphological similarity to the observed magnetic field. A further criterion is introduced to evaluate similarity of long-term temporal variations. Allowing for reasonable uncertainties in the observations, observed and synthetic axial dipole moment frequency spectra for time series of order a million years in length should be fit by the same power law model. This leads us to identify diffusion time as the appropriate time scaling for such comparisons. In almost all simulations, intervals considered to have good morphological agreement between synthetic and observed field are shorter than those of poor agreement. The time needed to obtain a converged estimate of the time-averaged field was found to be comparable to the length of the simulation, even in non-reversing models, suggesting that periods of stable polarity spanning many magnetic diffusion times are needed to obtain robust estimates of the mean dipole field. Long term field variations are almost entirely attributable to the axial dipole; nonzonal components converge to long-term average values on relatively short timescales (15-20 kyr). In all simulations, the time-averaged spatial power spectrum is characterised by a zigzag pattern as a function of spherical harmonic degree, with relatively higher power in odd degrees than in even degrees. We suggest that long-term spatial characteristics of the observed field may emerge on averaging times that are within reach for the next generation of global time-varying paleomagnetic field models. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

2013
Buffett, BA, Ziegler L, Constable CG.  2013.  A stochastic model for palaeomagnetic field variations. Geophysical Journal International. 195:86-97.   10.1093/gji/ggt218   AbstractWebsite

Regeneration of the Earth's magnetic field by convection in the liquid core produces a broad spectrum of time variation. Relative palaeointensity measurements in marine sediments provide a detailed record over the past 2 Myr, but an explicit reconstruction of the underlying dynamics is not feasible. A more practical alternative is to construct a stochastic model from estimates of the virtual axial dipole moment. The deterministic part of the model (drift term) describes time-averaged behaviour, whereas the random part (diffusion term) characterizes complex interactions over convective timescales. We recover estimates of the drift and diffusion terms from the SINT2000 model of Valet et al. and the PADM2M model of Ziegler et al. The results are used in numerical solutions of the Fokker-Planck equation to predict statistical properties of the palaeomagnetic field, including the average rates of magnetic reversals and excursions. A physical interpretation of the stochastic model suggests that the timescale for adjustments in the axial dipole moment is set by the dipole decay time tau(d). We obtain tau(d) = 29 kyr from the stochastic models, which falls within the expected range for the Earth's core. We also predict the amplitude of convective fluctuations in the core, and establish a physical connection to the rates of magnetic reversals and excursions. Chrons lasting longer than 10 Myr are unlikely under present-day conditions. However, long chrons become more likely if the diffusion term is reduced by a factor of 2. Such a change is accomplished by reducing the velocity fluctuations in the core by a factor of root 2, which could be attributed to a shift in the spatial pattern of heat flux from the core or a reduction in the total core heat flow.

2007
Jackson, A, Constable CG, Walker MR, Parker RL.  2007.  Models of Earth's main magnetic field incorporating flux and radial vorticity constraints. Geophysical Journal International. 171:133-144.   10.1111/j.1365-246X.2007.03526.x   AbstractWebsite

We describe a new technique for implementing the constraints on magnetic fields arising from two hypotheses about the fluid core of the Earth, namely the frozen-flux hypothesis and the hypothesis that the core is in magnetostrophic force balance with negligible leakage of current into the mantle. These hypotheses lead to time-independence of the integrated flux through certain 'null-flux patches' on the core surface, and to time-independence of their radial vorticity. Although the frozen-flux hypothesis has received attention before, constraining the radial vorticity has not previously been attempted. We describe a parametrization and an algorithm for preserving topology of radial magnetic fields at the core surface while allowing morphological changes. The parametrization is a spherical triangle tesselation of the core surface. Topology with respect to a reference model (based on data from the Oersted satellite) is preserved as models at different epochs are perturbed to optimize the fit to the data; the topology preservation is achieved by the imposition of inequality constraints on the model, and the optimization at each iteration is cast as a bounded value least-squares problem. For epochs 2000, 1980, 1945, 1915 and 1882 we are able to produce models of the core field which are consistent with flux and radial vorticity conservation, thus providing no observational evidence for the failure of the underlying assumptions. These models are a step towards the production of models which are optimal for the retrieval of frozen-flux velocity fields at the core surface.

2006
Korte, M, Constable CG.  2006.  Centennial to millennial geomagnetic secular variation. Geophysical Journal International. 167:43-52.   10.1111/j.1365-246X.2006.03088.x   AbstractWebsite

A time-varying spherical harmonic model of the palaeomagnetic field for 0-7 ka is used to investigate large-scale global geomagnetic secular variation on centennial to millennial scales. We study dipole moment evolution over the past 7 kyr, and estimate its rate of change using the Gauss coefficients of degree 1 (dipole coefficients) from the CALS7K.2 field model and by two alternative methods that confirm the robustness of the predicted variations. All methods show substantial dipole moment variation on timescales ranging from centennial to millennial. The dipole moment from CALS7K.2 has the best resolution and is able to resolve the general decrease in dipole moment seen in historical observations since about 1830. The currently observed rate of dipole decay is underestimated by CALS7K.2, but is still not extraordinarily strong in comparison to the rates of change shown by the model over the whole 7 kyr interval. Truly continuous phases of dipole decrease or increase are decadal to centennial in length rather than longer-term features. The general large-scale secular variation shows substantial changes in power in higher spherical harmonic degrees on similar timescales to the dipole. Comparisons are made between statistical variations calculated directly from CALS7K.2 and longer-term palaeosecular variation models: CALS7K.2 has lower overall variance in the dipole and quadrupole terms, but exhibits an imbalance between dispersion in g(2)(1) and h(2)(1), suggestive of long-term non-zonal structure in the secular variations.

2001
McMillan, DG, Constable CG, Parker RL, Glatzmaier GA.  2001.  A statistical analysis of magnetic fields from some geodynamo simulations. Geochemistry Geophysics Geosystems. 2:art.no.-2000GC000130. AbstractWebsite

We present a statistical analysis of magnetic fields simulated by the Glatzmaier-Roberts dynamically consistent dynamo model. For four simulations with distinct boundary conditions, means, standard deviations, and probability functions permit an evaluation based on existing statistical paleosecular variation (PSV) models. Although none closely fits the statistical PSV models in all respects, some simulations display characteristics of the statistical PSV models in individual tests. We also find that nonzonal field statistics do not necessarily reflect heat flow conditions at the core-mantle boundary. Multitaper estimates of power and coherence spectra allow analysis of time series of single, or groups of, spherical harmonic coefficients representing the magnetic fields of the dynamo simulations outside the core. Sliding window analyses of both power and coherence spectra from two of the simulations show that a 100 kyr averaging time is necessary to realize stationary statistics of their nondipole fields and that a length of 350 kyr is not long enough to full characterize their dipole fields. Spectral analysis provides new insight into the behavior and interaction of the dominant components of the simulated magnetic fields, the axial dipole and quadrupole. Although we find spectral similarities between several reversals, there is no evidence of signatures that can be conclusively associated with reversals or excursions. We test suggestions that during reversals there is increased coupling between groups of spherical harmonic components. Despite evidence of coupling between antisymmetric and symmetric spherical harmonics in one simulation, we conclude that it is rare and not directly linked to reversals. In contrast to the reversal model of R. T. Merrill and P. L. McFadden, we demonstrate that the geomagnetic power in the dipole part of the dynamo simulations is either relatively constant or fluctuates synchronously with that of the nondipole part and that coupling between antisymmetric and symmetric components occurs when the geomagnetic power is high.

2000
Constable, C.  2000.  On rates of occurrence of geomagnetic reversals. Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors. 118:181-193.   10.1016/s0031-9201(99)00139-9   AbstractWebsite

The magnetostratigraphic time scale provides a record of the occurrence of geomagnetic reversals. The temporal distribution of reversals may be modelled as the realization of an inhomogeneous renewal process; i.e., one in which the intensity, lambda(t), or reversal rate is a function of time. Variations in reversal rate occurring on time scales of tens of millions of years an believed to reflect changes in core-mantle boundary conditions influencing the structure of core flow and the field produced by the geodynamo. We present a new estimate for reversal rate variations as a function of time using nonparametric adaptive kernel density estimation and discuss the difficulties in making inferences on the basis of such estimates. Using a technique proposed by Hengartner and Stark (1992a; b; 1995), it is possible to compute confidence bounds on the temporal probability density function for geomagnetic reversals. The method allows the computation of a lower bound on the number of modes required by the observations, thus enabling a test of whether "bumps" are required features of the reversal rate function. Conservative 95% confidence intervals can then be calculated for the temporal location of a single mode or antimode of the probability density function. Using observations from the time interval 0-158 Ma, it is found that the derivative of the rate function must have changed sign at least once. The timing of this sign change is constrained to be between 152.56 and 22.46 Ma the 95% confidence level. Confidence bounds are computed for the reversal rate under the assumption that the observed reversals are a realization of an inhomogenous Poisson or other renewal process with an arbitrary monotonically increasing rate function from the end of the Cretaceous Normal Superchron (CNS) to the present, a zero rate during the CNS, and a monotonically decreasing rate function from M29R at 158 Ma to the onset of the CNS. It is unnecessary to invoke more than one sign change in the derivative of the rare function to fit the observations. There is no incompatibility between our results and a recent assertion that there is an asymmetry in average reversal rate prior to and after the CNS, when the CNS is assumed to be a period of zero reversal rate. Neither can we use our results to reject an alternative hypothesis that rates are essentially constant from 158 to 130 Ma, and from 25 Ma to the present. with an intermediate nonstationary segment. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

1996
Johnson, CL, Constable CG.  1996.  Palaeosecular variation recorded by lava flows over the past five million years. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London Series a-Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences. 354:89-141.   10.1098/rsta.1996.0004   AbstractWebsite

We present a new global palaeomagnetic database, comprising lava flows and thin intrusive bodies, suitable for studying palaeosecular variation and the time-averaged field. The database is presented in some detail in the appendix and is available oil-line from the authors. We review palaeosecular variation models to date, emphasizing the assumptions required and the rather arbitrary construction of many of these models, Preliminary studies of the statistical properties of the new database suggest that existing palaeosecular variation models are inadequate to explain the long-term temporal variations in the field. It is increasingly apparent that data distribution and duality are pivotal in determining the characteristics of the secular variation. The work presented here demonstrates the need for revised models of the time-averaged field structure for both normal and reverse polarities before reliable models for palaeosecular variation can be made.