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Gan, BL, Wu LX, Jia F, Li SJ, Cai WJ, Nakamura H, Alexander MA, Miller AJ.  2017.  On the response of the Aleutian Low to greenhouse warming. Journal of Climate. 30:3907-3925.   10.1175/jcli-d-15-0789.1   AbstractWebsite

Past and future changes in the Aleutian low are investigated by using observation-based sea level pressure (SLP) datasets and CMIP5 models. It is found that the Aleutian low intensity, measured by the North Pacific Index (NPI), has significantly strengthened during the twentieth century, with the observed centennial trend double the modeled counterpart for the multimodel average of historical simulations, suggesting compound signals of anthropogenic warming and natural variability. As climate warms under the strongest future warming scenario, the climatological-mean Aleutian low will continue to intensify and expand northward, as manifested in the significant decrease (-1.3 hPa) of the multimodel-averaged NPI, which is 1.6 times its unforced internal variability, and the increase in the central area of low pressure (SLP < 999.0 hPa), which expands about 7 times that in the twentieth century. A suite of idealized experiments further demonstrates that the deepening of the Aleutian low can be driven by an El Nino-like warming of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST), with a reduction in the climatological-mean zonal SST gradient, which overshadows the dampening effect of a weakened wintertime land-ocean thermal contrast on the Aleutian low change in a warmer climate. While the projected deepening of Aleutian low on multimodel average is robust, individual model portrayals vary primarily in magnitude. Intermodel difference in surface warming amplitude over the Asian continent, which is found to explain about 31% of the variance of the NPI changes across models, has a greater contribution than that in the spatial pattern of tropical Pacific SST warming (which explains about 23%) to model uncertainty in the projection of Aleutian low intensity.

Stukel, MR, Aluwihare LI, Barbeau KA, Chekalyuk AM, Goericke R, Miller AJ, Ohman MD, Ruacho A, Song H, Stephens BM, Landry MR.  2017.  Mesoscale ocean fronts enhance carbon export due to gravitational sinking and subduction. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 114:1252-1257.   10.1073/pnas.1609435114   AbstractWebsite

Enhanced vertical carbon transport (gravitational sinking and subduction) at mesoscale ocean fronts may explain the demonstrated imbalance of new production and sinking particle export in coastal upwelling ecosystems. Based on flux assessments from U-238:Th-234 disequilibrium and sediment traps, we found 2 to 3 times higher rates of gravitational particle export near a deep-water front (305 mg C.m(-2).d(-1)) compared with adjacent water or to mean (nonfrontal) regional conditions. Elevated particle flux at the front wasmechanistically linked to Fe-stressed diatoms and high-mesozooplankton fecal pellet production. Using a data assimilative regional ocean model fit to measured conditions, we estimate that an additional similar to 225 mg C.m(-2).d(-1) was exported as subduction of particle-rich water at the front, highlighting a transport mechanism that is not captured by sediment traps and is poorly quantified by most models and in situ measurements. Mesoscale fronts may be responsible for over a quarter of total organic carbon sequestration in the California Current and other coastal upwelling ecosystems.

Bromirski, PD, Flick RE, Miller AJ.  2017.  Storm surge along the Pacific coast of North America. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans. 122:441-457.   10.1002/2016jc012178   AbstractWebsite

Storm surge is an important factor that contributes to coastal flooding and erosion. Storm surge magnitude along eastern North Pacific coasts results primarily from low sea level pressure (SLP). Thus, coastal regions where high surge occurs identify the dominant locations where intense storms make landfall, controlled by storm track across the North Pacific. Here storm surge variability along the Pacific coast of North America is characterized by positive nontide residuals at a network of tide gauge stations from southern California to Alaska. The magnitudes of mean and extreme storm surge generally increase from south to north, with typically high amplitude surge north of Cape Mendocino and lower surge to the south. Correlation of mode 1 nontide principal component (PC1) during winter months (December-February) with anomalous SLP over the northeast Pacific indicates that the dominant storm landfall region is along the Cascadia/British Columbia coast. Although empirical orthogonal function spatial patterns show substantial interannual variability, similar correlation patterns of nontide PC1 over the 1948-1975 and 1983-2014 epochs with anomalous SLP suggest that, when considering decadal-scale time periods, storm surge and associated tracks have generally not changed appreciably since 1948. Nontide PC1 is well correlated with PC1 of both anomalous SLP and modeled wave height near the tide gauge stations, reflecting the interrelationship between storms, surge, and waves. Weaker surge south of Cape Mendocino during the 2015-2016 El Nino compared with 1982-1983 may result from changes in Hadley circulation. Importantly from a coastal impacts perspective, extreme storm surge events are often accompanied by high waves.

Suanda, SH, Kumar N, Miller AJ, Di Lorenzo E, Haas K, Cai DH, Edwards CA, Washburn L, Fewings MR, Torres R, Feddersen F.  2016.  Wind relaxation and a coastal buoyant plume north of Pt. Conception, CA: Observations, simulations, and scalings. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans. 121:7455-7475.   10.1002/2016jc011919   AbstractWebsite

In upwelling regions, wind relaxations lead to poleward propagating warm water plumes that are important to coastal ecosystems. The coastal ocean response to wind relaxation around Pt. Conception, CA is simulated with a Regional Ocean Model (ROMS) forced by realistic surface and lateral boundary conditions including tidal processes. The model reproduces well the statistics of observed subtidal water column temperature and velocity at both outer and inner-shelf mooring locations throughout the study. A poleward-propagating plume of Southern California Bight water that increases shelf water temperatures by similar to 5 degrees C is also reproduced. Modeled plume propagation speed, spatial scales, and flow structure are consistent with a theoretical scaling for coastal buoyant plumes with both surface-trapped and slope-controlled dynamics. Plume momentum balances are distinct between the offshore (>30 m depth) region where the plume is surface-trapped, and onshore of the 30 m isobath (within 5 km from shore) where the plume water mass extends to the bottom and is slope controlled. In the onshore region, bottom stress is important in the alongshore momentum equation and generates vertical vorticity that is an order of magnitude larger than the vorticity in the plume core. Numerical experiments without tidal forcing show that modeled surface temperatures are biased 0.5 degrees C high, potentially affecting plume propagation distance and persistence.

Pezzi, LP, Souza RB, Farias PC, Acevedo O, Miller AJ.  2016.  Air-sea interaction at the Southern Brazilian Continental Shelf: In situ observations. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans. 121:6671-6695.   10.1002/2016jc011774   AbstractWebsite

The influence of the cross-shelf oceanographic front occurring between the Brazil Current (BC) and the Brazilian Coastal Current (BCC) on the local Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer (MABL) is investigated here. This front is typical of wintertime in the Southern Brazilian Continental Shelf (SBCS) and this is the first time that its effects are investigated over the above MABL. Here we analyze variability, vertical structure, and stability of MABL as well as heat fluxes at air-sea interface, across five oceanographic transects in the SBCS made during a winter 2012 cruise. Local thermal gradients associated with mixing between distinct water masses, play an essential role on MABL modulation and stability. Although weaker when compared with other frontal regions, the cross-shelf thermal gradients reproduce exactly what is expected for open ocean regions: Stronger (weaker) winds, lower (higher) sea level pressure, and a more unstable (stable) MABL are found over the warm (cold) side of the oceanographic front between the BC (warm) and coastal (cold) waters. Our findings strongly support the coexistence of both known MABL modulation mechanisms: the static and hydrostatic MABL stability. This is the first time that these modulation mechanisms are documented for this region. Turbulent fluxes were found to be markedly dependent on the cross-shelf SST gradients resulting in differences of up to 100 W.m(-2) especially in the southernmost region where the gradients were more intense.

Lou, SJ, Russell LM, Yang Y, Xu L, Lamjiri MA, DeFlorio MJ, Miller AJ, Ghan SJ, Liu Y, Singh B.  2016.  Impacts of the East Asian Monsoon on springtime dust concentrations over China. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres. 121:8137-8152.   10.1002/2016jd024758   AbstractWebsite

We use 150year preindustrial simulations of the Community Earth System Model to quantify the impacts of the East Asian Monsoon strength on interannual variations of springtime dust concentrations over China. The simulated interannual variations in March-April-May (MAM) dust column concentrations range between 20-40% and 10-60% over eastern and western China, respectively. The dust concentrations over eastern China correlate negatively with the East Asian Monsoon (EAM) index, which represents the strength of monsoon, with a regionally averaged correlation coefficient of -0.64. Relative to the strongest EAM years, MAM dust concentrations in the weakest EAM years are higher over China, with regional relative differences of 55.6%, 29.6%, and 13.9% in the run with emissions calculated interactively and of 33.8%, 10.3%, and 8.2% over eastern, central, and western China, respectively, in the run with prescribed emissions. Both interactive run and prescribed emission run show the similar pattern of climate change between the weakest and strongest EAM years. Strong anomalous northwesterly and westerly winds over the Gobi and Taklamakan deserts during the weakest EAM years result in larger transport fluxes, and thereby increase the dust concentrations over China. These differences in dust concentrations between the weakest and strongest EAM years (weakest-strongest) lead to the change in the net radiative forcing by up to -8 and -3Wm(-2) at the surface, compared to -2.4 and +1.2Wm(-2) at the top of the atmosphere over eastern and western China, respectively.

Yang, Y, Russell LM, Xu L, Lou SJ, Lamjiri MA, Somerville RCJ, Miller AJ, Cayan DR, DeFlorio MJ, Ghan SJ, Liu Y, Singh B, Wang HL, Yoon JH, Rasch PJ.  2016.  Impacts of ENSO events on cloud radiative effects in preindustrial conditions: Changes in cloud fraction and their dependence on interactive aerosol emissions and concentrations. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres. 121:6321-6335.   10.1002/2015jd024503   AbstractWebsite

We use three 150 year preindustrial simulations of the Community Earth System Model to quantify the impacts of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on shortwave and longwave cloud radiative effects (CRESW and CRELW). Compared to recent observations from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System data set, the model simulation successfully reproduces larger variations of CRESW and CRELW over the tropics. The ENSO cycle is found to dominate interannual variations of cloud radiative effects. Simulated cooling (warming) effects from CRESW (CRELW) are strongest over the tropical western and central Pacific Ocean during warm ENSO events, with the largest difference between 20 and 60 W m(-2), with weaker effects of 10-40 W m(-2) over Indonesian regions and the subtropical Pacific Ocean. Sensitivity tests show that variations of cloud radiative effects are mainly driven by ENSO-related changes in cloud fraction. The variations in midlevel and high cloud fractions each account for approximately 20-50% of the interannual variations of CRESW over the tropics and almost all of the variations of CRELW between 60 degrees S and 60 degrees N. The variation of low cloud fraction contributes to most of the variations of CRESW over the midlatitude oceans. Variations in natural aerosol concentrations explained 10-30% of the variations of both CRESW and CRELW over the tropical Pacific, Indonesian regions, and the tropical Indian Ocean. Changes in natural aerosol emissions and concentrations enhance 3-5% and 1-3% of the variations of cloud radiative effects averaged over the tropics.

Newman, M, Alexander MA, Ault TR, Cobb KM, Deser C, Di Lorenzo E, Mantua NJ, Miller AJ, Minobe S, Nakamura H, Schneider N, Vimont DJ, Phillips AS, Scott JD, Smith CA.  2016.  The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Revisited. Journal of Climate. 29:4399-4427.   10.1175/jcli-d-15-0508.1   AbstractWebsite

The Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), the dominant year-round pattern of monthly North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability, is an important target of ongoing research within the meteorological and climate dynamics communities and is central to the work of many geologists, ecologists, natural resource managers, and social scientists. Research over the last 15 years has led to an emerging consensus: the PDO is not a single phenomenon, but is instead the result of a combination of different physical processes, including both remote tropical forcing and local North Pacific atmosphere-ocean interactions, which operate on different time scales to drive similar PDO-like SST anomaly patterns. How these processes combine to generate the observed PDO evolution, including apparent regime shifts, is shown using simple autoregressive models of increasing spatial complexity. Simulations of recent climate in coupled GCMs are able to capture many aspects of the PDO, but do so based on a balance of processes often more independent of the tropics than is observed. Finally, it is suggested that the assessment of PDO-related regional climate impacts, reconstruction of PDO-related variability into the past with proxy records, and diagnosis of Pacific variability within coupled GCMs should all account for the effects of these different processes, which only partly represent the direct forcing of the atmosphere by North Pacific Ocean SSTs.

Seo, H, Miller AJ, Norris JR.  2016.  Eddy-wind interaction in the California Current System: Dynamics and impacts. Journal of Physical Oceanography. 46:439-459.   10.1175/jpo-d-15-0086.1   AbstractWebsite

The summertime California Current System (CCS) is characterized by energetic mesoscale eddies, whose sea surface temperature (SST) and surface current can significantly modify the wind stress and Ekman pumping. Relative importance of the eddy-wind interactions via SST and surface current in the CCS is examined using a high-resolution (7 km) regional coupled model with a novel coupling approach to isolate the small-scale air-sea coupling by SST and surface current. Results show that when the eddy-induced surface current is allowed to modify the wind stress, the spatially averaged surface eddy kinetic energy (EKE) is reduced by 42%, and this is primarily due to enhanced surface eddy drag and reduced wind energy transfer. In contrast, the eddy-induced SST-wind coupling has no significant impact on the EKE. Furthermore, eddy-induced SST and surface current modify the Ekman pumping via their crosswind SST gradient and surface vorticity gradient, respectively. The resultant magnitudes of the Ekman pumping velocity are comparable, but the implied feedback effects on the eddy statistics are different. The surface current-induced Ekman pumping mainly attenuates the amplitude of cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies, acting to reduce the eddy activity, while the SST-induced Ekman pumping primarily affects the propagation. Time mean-rectified change in SST is determined by the altered offshore temperature advection by the mean and eddy currents, but the magnitude of the mean SST change is greater with the eddy-induced current effect. The demonstrated remarkably strong dynamical response in the CCS system to the eddy-induced current-wind coupling indicates that eddy-induced current should play an important role in the regional coupled ocean-atmosphere system.

DeFlorio, MJ, Goodwin ID, Cayan DR, Miller AJ, Ghan SJ, Pierce DW, Russell LM, Singh B.  2016.  Interannual modulation of subtropical Atlantic boreal summer dust variability by ENSO. Climate Dynamics. 46:585-599.   10.1007/s00382-015-2600-7   AbstractWebsite

Dust variability in the climate system has been studied for several decades, yet there remains an incomplete understanding of the dynamical mechanisms controlling interannual and decadal variations in dust transport. The sparseness of multi-year observational datasets has limited our understanding of the relationship between climate variations and atmospheric dust. We use available in situ and satellite observations of dust and a century-length fully coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulation to show that the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exerts a control on North African dust transport during boreal summer. In CESM, this relationship is stronger over the dusty tropical North Atlantic than near Barbados, one of the few sites having a multi-decadal observed record. During strong La Nina summers in CESM, a statistically significant increase in lower tropospheric easterly wind is associated with an increase in North African dust transport over the Atlantic. Barbados dust and Pacific SST variability are only weakly correlated in both observations and CESM, suggesting that other processes are controlling the cross-basin variability of dust. We also use our CESM simulation to show that the relationship between downstream North African dust transport and ENSO fluctuates on multidecadal timescales and is associated with a phase shift in the North Atlantic Oscillation. Our findings indicate that existing observations of dust over the tropical North Atlantic are not extensive enough to completely describe the variability of dust and dust transport, and demonstrate the importance of global models to supplement and interpret observational records.

Amaya, DJ, Xie SP, Miller AJ, McPhaden MJ.  2015.  Seasonality of tropical Pacific decadal trends associated with the 21st century global warming hiatus. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans. 120:6782-6798.   10.1002/2015jc010906   AbstractWebsite

Equatorial Pacific changes during the transition from a nonhiatus period (pre-1999) to the present global warming hiatus period (post-1999) are identified using a combination of reanalysis and observed data sets. Results show increased surface wind forcing has excited significant changes in wind-driven circulation. Over the last two decades, the core of the Equatorial Undercurrent intensified at a rate of 6.9 cm s(-1) decade(-1). Similarly, equatorial upwelling associated with the shallow meridional overturning circulation increased at a rate of 2.0 x 10(-4) cm s(-1) decade(-1) in the central Pacific. Further, a seasonal dependence is identified in the sea surface temperature trends and in subsurface dynamics. Seasonal variations are evident in reversals of equatorial surface flow trends, changes in subsurface circulation, and seasonal deepening/shoaling of the thermocline. Anomalous westward surface flow drives cold-water zonal advection from November to February, leading to surface cooling from December through May. Conversely, eastward surface current anomalies in June-July drive warm-water zonal advection producing surface warming from July to November. An improved dynamical understanding of how the tropical Pacific Ocean responds during transitions into hiatus events, including its seasonal structure, may help to improve future predictability of decadal climate variations.

Rasmussen, L, Bromirski PD, Miller AJ, Arcas D, Flick RE, Hendershott MC.  2015.  Source location impact on relative tsunami strength along the US West Coast. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans. 120:4945-4961.   10.1002/2015jc010718   AbstractWebsite

Tsunami propagation simulations are used to identify which tsunami source locations would produce the highest amplitude waves on approach to key population centers along the U.S. West Coast. The reasons for preferential influence of certain remote excitation sites are explored by examining model time sequences of tsunami wave patterns emanating from the source. Distant bathymetric features in the West and Central Pacific can redirect tsunami energy into narrow paths with anomalously large wave height that have disproportionate impact on small areas of coastline. The source region generating the waves can be as little as 100 km along a subduction zone, resulting in distinct source-target pairs with sharply amplified wave energy at the target. Tsunami spectral ratios examined for transects near the source, after crossing the West Pacific, and on approach to the coast illustrate how prominent bathymetric features alter wave spectral distributions, and relate to both the timing and magnitude of waves approaching shore. To contextualize the potential impact of tsunamis from high-amplitude source-target pairs, the source characteristics of major historical earthquakes and tsunamis in 1960, 1964, and 2011 are used to generate comparable events originating at the highest-amplitude source locations for each coastal target. This creates a type of ``worst-case scenario,'' a replicate of each region's historically largest earthquake positioned at the fault segment that would produce the most incoming tsunami energy at each target port. An amplification factor provides a measure of how the incoming wave height from the worst-case source compares to the historical event.

Miller, AJ, Song H, Subramanian AC.  2015.  The physical oceanographic environment during the CCE-LTER Years: Changes in climate and concepts. Deep-Sea Research Part Ii-Topical Studies in Oceanography. 112:6-17.   10.1016/j.dsr2.2014.01.003   AbstractWebsite

The California Current System (CCS) has been studied by the California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations program for many decades. Since 2004, the Southern California Bight (SCB) and the oceanic region offshore has also been the site for the California Current Ecosystem (CCE) Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) program, which has established long-term observational time series and executed several Process Cruises to better understand physical biological variations, fluxes and interactions. Since the inception of the CCE-LTER, many new ideas have emerged about what physical processes are the key controls on CCS dynamics. These new perspectives include obtaining a better understanding of what climate patterns exert influences on CCS physical variations and what physical controls are most important in driving CCE ecological changes. Physical oceanographic and climatological conditions in the CCS varied widely since the inception of the CCE-LTER observational time series, including unusual climate events and persistently anomalous states. Although the CCE-LTER project commenced in 2004 in the midst of normal ocean conditions near the climatological means, over the following decade, El Nino/Southern Oscillation conditions flickered weakly from warm to cold, with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) generally tracking that behavior, while the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) evolved to persistent and strong positive conditions after 2007, indicative of enhanced upwelling from 2007 to 2012. Together the combined impact of the negative PDO state (La Nina conditions) and positive NPGO state (increased upwelling conditions) yielded remarkably persistent cool conditions in the CCS from late 2007 to early 2009 and from mid-2010 through 2012. The broad-scale climate variations that occurred over the North Pacific and CCS during this time period are discussed here to provide physical context for the CCE-LTER time series observations and the CCE-LTER Process Cruises. Data assimilation fits, using the Regional Ocean Modeling System four-dimensional data assimilation framework, were successfully executed for the 1-month time period surrounding each of the Process Cruises. The fits provide additional information about how the physical flows evolve during the course of the multi-week Process Cruises. Relating these physical states to the numerous biological measurements gathered by the CCE-LTER time series observations and during the Process Cruises will yield vital long-term perspective of how changing climate conditions control the ocean ecosystem in this region and information on how this important ecosystem can be expected to evolve over the coming decades. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cavanaugh, NR, Allen T, Subramanian A, Mapes B, Seo H, Miller AJ.  2015.  The skill of atmospheric linear inverse models in hindcasting the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Climate Dynamics. 44:897-906.   10.1007/s00382-014-2181-x   AbstractWebsite

A suite of statistical atmosphere-only linear inverse models of varying complexity are used to hindcast recent MJO events from the Year of Tropical Convection and the Cooperative Indian Ocean Experiment on Intraseasonal Variability/Dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation mission periods, as well as over the 2000-2009 time period. Skill exists for over two weeks, competitive with the skill of some numerical models in both bivariate correlation and root-mean-squared-error scores during both observational mission periods. Skill is higher during mature Madden-Julian Oscillation conditions, as opposed to during growth phases, suggesting that growth dynamics may be more complex or non-linear since they are not as well captured by a linear model. There is little prediction skill gained by including non-leading modes of variability.

Xu, L, Pierce DW, Russell LM, Miller AJ, Somerville RCJ, Twohy CH, Ghan SJ, Singh B, Yoon J-H, Rasch PJ.  2015.  Interannual to decadal climate variability of sea salt aerosols in the coupled climate model CESM1.0. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres.   10.1002/2014JD022888   AbstractWebsite

This study examines multi-year climate variability associated with sea salt aerosols and their contribution to the variability of shortwave cloud forcing (SWCF) using a 150-year simulation for pre-industrial conditions of the Community Earth System Model version 1.0 (CESM1). The results suggest that changes in sea salt and related cloud and radiative properties on interannual timescales are dominated by the ENSO cycle. Sea salt variability on longer (interdecadal) timescales is associated with low-frequency variability in the Pacific Ocean similar to the interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), but does not show a statistically significant spectral peak. A multivariate regression suggests that sea salt aerosol variability may contribute to SWCF variability in the tropical Pacific, explaining up to 20-30% of the variance in that region. Elsewhere, there is only a small sea salt aerosol influence on SWCF through modifying cloud droplet number and liquid water path that contributes to the change of cloud effective radius and cloud optical depth (and hence cloud albedo), producing a multi-year aerosol-cloud-wind interaction.

Li, L, Miller AJ, McClean JL, Eisenman I, Hendershott MC.  2014.  Processes driving sea ice variability in the Bering Sea in an eddying ocean/sea ice model: anomalies from the mean seasonal cycle. Ocean Dynamics. 64:1693-1717.: Springer Berlin Heidelberg   10.1007/s10236-014-0769-7   AbstractWebsite

A fine-resolution (1/10°) ocean/sea ice model configured in the Community Earth System Model framework is compared with observations and studied to determine the basin-scale and local balances controlling the variability of sea ice anomalies from the mean seasonal cycle in the Bering Sea for the time period 1980–1989. The model produces variations in total Bering Sea ice area anomalies that are highly correlated with observations. Surface air temperature, which is specified from reanalysis atmospheric forcing, strongly controls the ice volume variability in this simulation. The thermodynamic ice volume change is dominated by surface energy flux via atmosphere-ice sensible heat flux, except near the southern ice edge where it is largely controlled by ocean-ice heat flux. While thermodynamic processes dominate the variations in ice volume in the Bering Sea on the large scale, dynamic processes are important on the local scale near ice margins (both oceanic and land), where dynamic and thermodynamic ice volume changes have opposite signs and nearly cancel each other. Ice motion is generally consistent with winds driving the flow, except near certain straits in the north where ice motion largely follows ocean currents. Two key climate events, strong ice growth with cold air temperature and northerly wind anomalies in February 1984 and weak ice growth with warm air temperature and southerly wind anomalies in February 1989, are studied here in detail. While the processes controlling the ice changes are generally similar to those in other years, these large events help reveal the characteristic spatial patterns of ice growth/melt and transport anomalies.

Li, L, McClean JL, Miller AJ, Eisenman I, Hendershott MC, Papadopoulos CA.  2014.  Processes driving sea ice variability in the Bering Sea in an eddying ocean/sea ice model: Mean seasonal cycle. Ocean Modelling. 84:51-66.   AbstractWebsite

The seasonal cycle of sea ice variability in the Bering Sea, together with the thermodynamic and dynamic processes that control it, are examined in a fine resolution (1/10°) global coupled ocean/sea-ice model configured in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) framework. The ocean/sea-ice model consists of the Los Alamos National Laboratory Parallel Ocean Program (POP) and the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE). The model was forced with time-varying reanalysis atmospheric forcing for the time period 1970–1989. This study focuses on the time period 1980–1989. The simulated seasonal-mean fields of sea ice concentration strongly resemble satellite-derived observations, as quantified by root-mean-square errors and pattern correlation coefficients. The sea ice energy budget reveals that the seasonal thermodynamic ice volume changes are dominated by the surface energy flux between the atmosphere and the ice in the northern region and by heat flux from the ocean to the ice along the southern ice edge, especially on the western side. The sea ice force balance analysis shows that sea ice motion is largely associated with wind stress. The force due to divergence of the internal ice stress tensor is large near the land boundaries in the north, and it is small in the central and southern ice-covered region. During winter, which dominates the annual mean, it is found that the simulated sea ice was mainly formed in the northern Bering Sea, with the maximum ice growth rate occurring along the coast due to cold air from northerly winds and ice motion away from the coast. South of St Lawrence Island, winds drive the model sea ice southwestward from the north to the southwestern part of the ice-covered region. Along the ice edge in the western Bering Sea, model sea ice is melted by warm ocean water, which is carried by the simulated Bering Slope Current flowing to the northwest, resulting in the S-shaped asymmetric ice edge. In spring and fall, similar thermodynamic and dynamic patterns occur in the model, but with typically smaller magnitudes and with season-specific geographical and directional differences.

Seo, H, Subramanian AC, Miller AJ, Cavanaugh NR.  2014.  Coupled impacts of the diurnal cycle of sea surface temperature on the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Journal of Climate. 27:8422-8443.   10.1175/jcli-d-14-00141.1   AbstractWebsite

This study quantifies, from a systematic set of regional ocean-atmosphere coupled model simulations employing various coupling intervals, the effect of subdaily sea surface temperature (SST) variability on the onset and intensity of Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) convection in the Indian Ocean. The primary effect of diurnal SST variation (dSST) is to raise time-mean SST and latent heat flux (LH) prior to deep convection. Diurnal SST variation also strengthens the diurnal moistening of the troposphere by collocating the diurnal peak in LH with those of SST. Both effects enhance the convection such that the total precipitation amount scales quasi-linearly with preconvection dSST and time-mean SST. A column-integrated moist static energy (MSE) budget analysis confirms the critical role of diurnal SST variability in the buildup of column MSE and the strength of MJO convection via stronger time-mean LH and diurnal moistening. Two complementary atmosphere-only simulations further elucidate the role of SST conditions in the predictive skill of MJO. The atmospheric model forced with the persistent initial SST, lacking enhanced preconvection warming and moistening, produces a weaker and delayed convection than the diurnally coupled run. The atmospheric model with prescribed daily-mean SST from the coupled run, while eliminating the delayed peak, continues to exhibit weaker convection due to the lack of strong moistening on a diurnal basis. The fact that time-evolving SST with a diurnal cycle strongly influences the onset and intensity of MJO convection is consistent with previous studies that identified an improved representation of diurnal SST as a potential source of MJO predictability.

DeFlorio, MJ, Ghan SJ, Singh B, Miller AJ, Cayan DR, Russell LM, Somerville RCJ.  2014.  Semidirect dynamical and radiative effect of North African dust transport on lower tropospheric clouds over the subtropical North Atlantic in CESM 1.0. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. 119:2013JD020997.   10.1002/2013JD020997   AbstractWebsite

This study uses a century length preindustrial climate simulation by the Community Earth System Model (CESM 1.0) to explore statistical relationships between dust, clouds, and atmospheric circulation and to suggest a semidirect dynamical mechanism linking subtropical North Atlantic lower tropospheric cloud cover with North African dust transport. The length of the run allows us to account for interannual variability of North African dust emissions and transport in the model. CESM's monthly climatology of both aerosol optical depth and surface dust concentration at Cape Verde and Barbados, respectively, agree well with available observations, as does the aerosol size distribution at Cape Verde. In addition, CESM shows strong seasonal cycles of dust burden and lower tropospheric cloud fraction, with maximum values occurring during boreal summer, when a strong correlation between these two variables exists over the subtropical North Atlantic. Calculations of Estimated Inversion Strength (EIS) and composites of EIS on high and low downstream North African dust months during boreal summer reveal that dust is likely increasing inversion strength over this region due to both solar absorption and reflection. We find no evidence for a microphysical link between dust and lower tropospheric clouds in this region. These results yield new insight over an extensive period of time into the complex relationship between North African dust and North Atlantic lower tropospheric clouds, which has previously been hindered by spatiotemporal constraints of observations. Our findings lay a framework for future analyses using different climate models and submonthly data over regions with different underlying dynamics.

Subramanian, A, Jochum M, Miller AJ, Neale R, Seo H, Waliser D, Murtugudde R.  2014.  The MJO and global warming: a study in CCSM4. Climate Dynamics. 42:2019-2031.   10.1007/s00382-013-1846-1   AbstractWebsite

The change in Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) amplitude and variance in response to anthropogenic climate change is assessed in the 1A degrees nominal resolution community climate system model, version 4 (CCSM4), which has a reasonable representation of the MJO characteristics both dynamically and statistically. The twentieth century CCSM4 run is compared with the warmest twenty-first century projection (representative concentration pathway 8.5, or RCP8.5). The last 20 years of each simulation are compared in their MJO characteristics, including spatial variance distributions of winds, precipitation and outgoing longwave radiation, histograms of event amplitude, phase and duration, and composite maps of phases. The RCP8.5 run exhibits increased variance in intraseasonal precipitation, larger-amplitude MJO events, stronger MJO rainfall in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, and a greater frequency of MJO occurrence for phases corresponding to enhanced rainfall in the Indian Ocean sector. These features are consistent with the concept of an increased magnitude for the hydrological cycle under greenhouse warming conditions. Conversely, the number of active MJO days decreases and fewer weak MJO events occur in the future climate state. These results motivate further study of these changes since tropical rainfall variability plays such an important role in the region's socio-economic well being.

Putrasahan, DA, Miller AJ, Seo H.  2013.  Regional coupled ocean-atmosphere downscaling in the Southeast Pacific: impacts on upwelling, mesoscale air-sea fluxes, and ocean eddies. Ocean Dynamics. 63:463-488.   10.1007/s10236-013-0608-2   AbstractWebsite

Ocean-atmosphere coupling in the Humboldt Current System (HCS) of the Southeast Pacific is studied using the Scripps Coupled Ocean-atmosphere Regional (SCOAR) model, which is used to downscale the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis-2 (RA2) product for the period 2000-2007 at 20-km resolution. An interactive 2-D spatial smoother within the sea-surface temperature (SST)-flux coupler is invoked in a separate run to isolate the impact of the mesoscale (similar to 50-200 km, in the oceanic sense) SST field felt by the atmosphere in the fully coupled run. For the HCS, SCOAR produces seasonal wind stress and wind stress curl patterns that agree better with QuikSCAT winds than those from RA2. The SCOAR downscaled wind stress distribution has substantially different impacts on the magnitude and structure of wind-driven upwelling processes along the coast compared to RA2. Along coastal locations such as Arica and Taltal, SCOAR and RA2 produce seasonally opposite signs in the total wind-driven upwelling transport. At San Juan, SCOAR shows that upwelling is mainly due to coastal Ekman upwelling transport, while in RA2 upwelling is mostly attributed to Ekman pumping. Fully coupled SCOAR shows significant SST-wind stress coupling during fall and winter, while smoothed SCOAR shows insignificant coupling throughout, indicating the important role of ocean mesoscale eddies on air-sea coupling in HCS. Coupling between SST, wind speed, and latent heat flux is incoherent in large-scale coupling and full coupling mode. In contrast, coupling between these three variables is clearly identified for oceanic mesoscales, which suggests that mesoscale SST affects latent heat directly through the bulk formulation, as well as indirectly through stability changes on the overlying atmosphere, which affects surface wind speeds. The SST-wind stress and SST-heat-flux couplings, however, fail to produce a strong change in the ocean eddy statistics. No rectified effects of ocean-atmosphere coupling were identified for either the atmospheric or oceanic mean conditions, suggesting that mesoscale coupling is too weak in this region to strongly alter the basic climate state.

Ohman, MD, Barbeau K, Franks PJS, Goericke R, Landry MR, Miller AJ.  2013.  Ecological transitions in a coastal upwelling ecosystem. Oceanography. 26:210-219. AbstractWebsite

The southern California Current Ecosystem (CCE) is a dynamic eastern boundary current ecosystem that is forced by ocean-atmosphere variability on interannual, multidecadal, and long-term secular time scales. Recent evidence suggests that apparent abrupt transitions in ecosystem conditions reflect linear tracking of the physical environment rather than oscillations between alternative preferred states. A space-for-time exchange is one approach that permits use of natural spatial variability in the CCE to develop a mechanistic understanding needed to project future temporal changes. The role of (sub)mesoscale frontal systems in altering rates of nutrient transport, primary and secondary production, export fluxes, and the rates of encounters between predators and prey is an issue central to this pelagic ecosystem and its future trajectory because the occurrence of such frontal features is increasing.

Putrasahan, DA, Miller AJ, Seo H.  2013.  Isolating mesoscale coupled ocean-atmosphere interactions in the Kuroshio Extension region. Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans. 63:60-78.   10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2013.04.001   AbstractWebsite

The Kuroshio Extension region is characterized by energetic oceanic mesoscale and frontal variability that alters the air-sea fluxes that can influence large-scale climate variability in the North Pacific. We investigate this mesoscale air-sea coupling using a regional eddy-resolving coupled ocean-atmosphere (OA) model that downscales the observed large-scale climate variability from 2001 to 2007. The model simulates many aspects of the observed seasonal cycle of OA coupling strength for both momentum and turbulent heat fluxes. We introduce a new modeling approach to study the scale-dependence of two well-known mechanisms for the surface wind response to mesoscale sea surface temperatures (SSTs), namely, the 'vertical mixing mechanism' (VMM) and the 'pressure adjustment mechanism' (PAM). We compare the fully coupled model to the same model with an online, 2-D spatial smoother applied to remove the mesoscale SST field felt by the atmosphere. Both VMM and PAM are found to be active during the strong wintertime peak seen in the coupling strength in both the model and observations. For VMM, large-scale SST gradients surprisingly generate coupling between downwind SST gradient and wind stress divergence that is often stronger than the coupling on the mesoscale, indicating their joint importance in OA interaction in this region. In contrast, VMM coupling between crosswind SST gradient and wind stress curl occurs only on the mesoscale, and not over large-scale SST gradients, indicating the essential role of the ocean mesocale. For PAM, the model results indicate that coupling between the Laplacian of sea level pressure and surface wind convergence occurs for both mesoscale and large-scale processes, but inclusion of the mesoscale roughly doubles the coupling strength. Coupling between latent heat flux and SST is found to be significant throughout the entire seasonal cycle in both fully coupled mode and large-scale coupled mode, with peak coupling during winter months. The atmospheric response to the oceanic mesoscale SST is also studied by comparing the fully coupled run to an uncoupled atmospheric model forced with smoothed SST prescribed from the coupled run. Precipitation anomalies are found to be forced by surface wind convergence patterns that are driven by mesoscale SST gradients, indicating the importance of the ocean forcing the atmosphere at this scale. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Franks, PJS, Di Lorenzo E, Goebel NL, Chenillat F, Riviere P, Edward CA, Miller AJ.  2013.  Modeling physical-biological responses to climate change in the California Current system. Oceanography. 26:26-33. AbstractWebsite

Understanding the effects of climate change on planktonic ecosystems requires the synthesis of large, diverse data sets of variables that often interact in nonlinear ways. One fruitful approach to this synthesis is the use of numerical models. Here, we describe how models have been used to gain understanding of the physical-biological couplings leading to decadal changes in the southern California Current ecosystem. Moving from basin scales to local scales, we show how atmospheric, physical oceanographic, and biological dynamics interact to create long-term fluctuations in the dynamics of the California Current ecosystem.

DeFlorio, MJ, Pierce DW, Cayan DR, Miller AJ.  2013.  Western US extreme precipitation events and their relation to ENSO and PDO in CCSM4. Journal of Climate. 26:4231-4243.   10.1175/jcli-d-12-00257.1   AbstractWebsite

Water resources and management over the western United States are heavily impacted by both local climate variability and the teleconnected responses of precipitation to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). In this work, regional precipitation patterns over the western United States and linkages to ENSO and the PDO are analyzed using output from a Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) preindustrial control run and observations, with emphasis on extreme precipitation events. CCSM4 produces realistic zonal gradients in precipitation intensity and duration over the western United States, with higher values on the windward side of the Cascade Mountains and Sierra Nevada and lower values on the leeward. Compared to its predecessor CCSM3, CCSM4 shows an improved teleconnected signal of both ENSO and the PDO to large-scale circulation patterns over the Pacific-North America region and also to the spatial pattern and other aspects of western U.S. precipitation. The so-called drizzle problem persists in CCSM4 but is significantly improved compared to CCSM3. In particular, it is found that CCSM4 has substantially less precipitation duration bias than is present in CCSM3. Both the overall and extreme intensity of wintertime precipitation over the western United States show statistically significant linkages with ENSO and PDO in CCSM4. This analysis provides a basis for future studies using greenhouse gas (GHG)-forced CCSM4 runs.