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Shields, CA, Rutz JJ, Leung LY, Ralph FM, Wehner M, Kawzenuk B, Lora JM, McClenny E, Osborne T, Payne AE, Ullrich P, Gershunov A, Goldenson N, Guan B, Qian Y, Ramos AM, Sarangi C, Sellars S, Gorodetskaya I, Kashinath K, Kurlin V, Mahoney K, Muszynski G, Pierce R, Subramanian AC, Tome R, Waliser D, Walton D, Wick G, Wilson A, Lavers D, Prabhat, Collow A, Krishnan H, Magnusdottir G, Nguyen P.  2018.  Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP): project goals and experimental design. Geoscientific Model Development. 11:2455-2474.   10.5194/gmd-11-2455-2018   AbstractWebsite

The Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) is an international collaborative effort to understand and quantify the uncertainties in atmospheric river (AR) science based on detection algorithm alone. Currently, there are many AR identification and tracking algorithms in the literature with a wide range of techniques and conclusions. ARTMIP strives to provide the community with information on different methodologies and provide guidance on the most appropriate algorithm for a given science question or region of interest. All ARTMIP participants will implement their detection algorithms on a specified common dataset for a defined period of time. The project is divided into two phases: Tier 1 will utilize the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis from January 1980 to June 2017 and will be used as a baseline for all subsequent comparisons. Participation in Tier 1 is required. Tier 2 will be optional and include sensitivity studies designed around specific science questions, such as reanalysis uncertainty and climate change. High-resolution reanalysis and/or model output will be used wherever possible. Proposed metrics include AR frequency, duration, intensity, and precipitation attributable to ARs. Here, we present the ARTMIP experimental design, timeline, project requirements, and a brief description of the variety of methodologies in the current literature. We also present results from our 1-month "proof-of-concept" trial run designed to illustrate the utility and feasibility of the ARTMIP project.

Clemesha, RES, Guirguis K, Gershunov A, Small IJ, Tardy A.  2018.  California heat waves: their spatial evolution, variation, and coastal modulation by low clouds. Climate Dynamics. 50:4285-4301.   10.1007/s00382-017-3875-7   AbstractWebsite

We examine the spatial and temporal evolution of heat waves through California and consider one of the key modulating factors of summertime coastal climate-coastal low cloudiness (CLC). Heat waves are defined relative to daytime maximum temperature (T-max) anomalies after removing local seasonality and capture unseasonably warm events during May-September. California is home to several diverse climate regions and characteristics of extreme heat events are also variable throughout these regions. Heat wave events tend to be shorter, but more anomalously intense along the coast. Heat waves typically impact both coastal and inland regions, although there is more propensity towards coastally trapped events. Most heat waves with a strong impact across regions start at the coast, proceed inland, and weaken at the coast before letting up inland. Typically, the beginning of coastal heat waves are associated with a loss of CLC, followed by a strong rebound of CLC starting close to the peak in heat wave intensity. The degree to which an inland heat wave is expressed at the coast is associated with the presence of these low clouds. Inland heat waves that have very little expression at the coast tend to have CLC present and an elevated inversion base height compared with other heat waves.

Guirguis, K, Gershunov A, Cayan DR, Pierce DW.  2018.  Heat wave probability in the changing climate of the Southwest US. Climate Dynamics. 50:3853-3864.   10.1007/s00382-017-3850-3   AbstractWebsite

Analyses of observed non-Gaussian daily minimum and maximum temperature probability distribution functions (PDFs) in the Southwest US highlight the importance of variance and warm tail length in determining future heat wave probability. Even if no PDF shape change occurs with climate change, locations with shorter warm tails and/or smaller variance will see a greater increase in heat wave probability, defined as exceedances above the historical 95th percentile threshold, than will long tailed/larger variance distributions. Projections from ten downscaled CMIP5 models show important geospatial differences in the amount of warming expected for a location. However, changes in heat wave probability do not directly follow changes in background warming. Projected changes in heat wave probability are largely explained by a rigid shift of the daily temperature distribution. In some locations where there is more warming, future heat wave probability is buffered somewhat by longer warm tails. In other parts of the Southwest where there is less warming, heat wave probability is relatively enhanced because of shorter tailed PDFs. Effects of PDF shape changes are generally small by comparison to those from a rigid shift, and fall within the range of uncertainty among models in the amount of warming expected by the end of the century.

Sherbakov, T, Malig B, Guirguis K, Gershunov A, Basu R.  2018.  Ambient temperature and added heat wave effects on hospitalizations in California from 1999 to 2009. Environmental Research. 160:83-90.   10.1016/j.envres.2017.08.052   AbstractWebsite

Investigators have examined how heat waves or incremental changes in temperature affect health outcomes, but few have examined both simultaneously. We utilized distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNM) to explore temperature associations and evaluate possible added heat wave effects on hospitalizations in 16 climate zones throughout California from May through October 1999-2009. We define heat waves as a period when daily mean temperatures were above the zone- and month-specific 95th percentile for at least two consecutive days. DLNMs were used to estimate climate zone-specific non-linear temperature and heat wave effects, which were then combined using random effects meta-analysis to produce an overall estimate for each. With higher temperatures, admissions for acute renal failure, appendicitis, dehydration, ischemic stroke, mental health, noninfectious enteritis, and primary diabetes were significantly increased, with added effects from heat waves observed for acute renal failure and dehydration. Higher temperatures also predicted statistically significant decreases in hypertension admissions, respiratory admissions, and respiratory diseases with secondary diagnoses of diabetes, though heat waves independently predicted an added increase in risk for both respiratory types. Our findings provide evidence that both heat wave and temperature exposures can exert effects independently.

Polade, SD, Gershunov A, Cayan DR, Dettinger MD, Pierce DW.  2017.  Precipitation in a warming world: Assessing projected hydro-climate changes in California and other Mediterranean climate regions. Scientific Reports. 7   10.1038/s41598-017-11285-y   AbstractWebsite

In most Mediterranean climate (MedClim) regions around the world, global climate models (GCMs) consistently project drier futures. In California, however, projections of changes in annual precipitation are inconsistent. Analysis of daily precipitation in 30 GCMs reveals patterns in projected hydrometeorology over each of the five MedClm regions globally and helps disentangle their causes. MedClim regions, except California, are expected to dry via decreased frequency of winter precipitation. Frequencies of extreme precipitation, however, are projected to increase over the two MedClim regions of the Northern Hemisphere where projected warming is strongest. The increase in heavy and extreme precipitation is particularly robust over California, where it is only partially offset by projected decreases in low-medium intensity precipitation. Over the Mediterranean Basin, however, losses from decreasing frequency of low-medium-intensity precipitation are projected to dominate gains from intensifying projected extreme precipitation. MedClim regions are projected to become more sub-tropical, i.e. made dryer via pole-ward expanding subtropical subsidence. California's more nuanced hydrological future reflects a precarious balance between the expanding subtropical high from the south and the south-eastward extending Aleutian low from the north-west. These dynamical mechanisms and thermodynamic moistening of the warming atmosphere result in increased horizontal water vapor transport, bolstering extreme precipitation events.

Gershunov, A, Shulgina T, Ralph MF, Lavers DA, Rutz JJ.  2017.  Assessing the climate-scale variability of atmospheric rivers affecting western North America. Geophysical Research Letters.   10.1002/2017GL074175   Abstract

A new method for automatic detection of atmospheric rivers (ARs) is developed and applied to an atmospheric reanalysis, yielding an extensive catalog of ARs land-falling along the west coast of North America during 1948–2017. This catalog provides a large array of variables that can be used to examine AR cases and their climate-scale variability in exceptional detail. The new record of AR activity, as presented, validated and examined here, provides a perspective on the seasonal cycle and the interannual-interdecadal variability of AR activity affecting the hydroclimate of western North America. Importantly, AR intensity does not exactly follow the climatological pattern of AR frequency. Strong links to hydroclimate are demonstrated using a high-resolution precipitation data set. We describe the seasonal progression of AR activity and diagnose linkages with climate variability expressed in Pacific sea surface temperatures, revealing links to Pacific decadal variability, recent regional anomalies, as well as a generally rising trend in land-falling AR activity. The latter trend is consistent with a long-term increase in vapor transport from the warming North Pacific onto the North American continent. The new catalog provides unprecedented opportunities to study the climate-scale behavior and predictability of ARs affecting western North America.

Clemesha, RES, Gershunov A, Iacobellis SF, Cayan DR.  2017.  Daily variability of California coastal low cloudiness: A balancing act between stability and subsidence. Geophysical Research Letters. 44:3330-3338.   10.1002/2017gl073075   AbstractWebsite

We examine mechanisms driving daily variability of summer coastal low cloudiness (CLC) along the California coast. Daily CLC is derived from a satellite record from 1996 to 2014. Atmospheric rather than oceanic processes are mostly responsible for daily fluctuations in vertical stability that dictate short-period variation in CLC structure. Daily CLC anomalies are most strongly correlated to lower tropospheric stability anomalies to the north. The spatially offset nature of the cloud-stability relationship is a result of the balancing act that affects low cloudiness wherein subsidence drives increased stability, which promotes cloudiness, but too much subsidence limits cloudiness. Lay explanations claim that high inland temperatures pull in CLC, but such a process presumably would have the high temperatures directly inland. Rather, we find that the spatially offset associations between CLC and atmospheric circulation result in positive correlations between CLC and inland surface temperature anomalies to the north.

Guzman-Morales, J, Gershunov A, Theiss J, Li HQ, Cayan D.  2016.  Santa Ana Winds of Southern California: Their climatology, extremes, and behavior spanning six and a half decades. Geophysical Research Letters. 43:2827-2834.   10.1002/2016gl067887   AbstractWebsite

Santa Ana Winds (SAWs) are an integral feature of the regional climate of Southern California/Northern Baja California region, but their climate-scale behavior is poorly understood. In the present work, we identify SAWs in mesoscale dynamical downscaling of a global reanalysis from 1948 to 2012. Model winds are validated with anemometer observations. SAWs exhibit an organized pattern with strongest easterly winds on westward facing downwind slopes and muted magnitudes at sea and over desert lowlands. We construct hourly local and regional SAW indices and analyze elements of their behavior on daily, annual, and multidecadal timescales. SAWs occurrences peak in winter, but some of the strongest winds have occurred in fall. Finally, we observe that SAW intensity is influenced by prominent large-scale low-frequency modes of climate variability rooted in the tropical and north Pacific ocean-atmosphere system.

Grotjahn, R, Black R, Leung R, Wehner MF, Barlow M, Bosilovich M, Gershunov A, Gutowski WJ, Gyakum JR, Katz RW, Lee YY, Lim YK, Prabhat.  2016.  North American extreme temperature events and related large scale meteorological patterns: a review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends. Climate Dynamics. 46:1151-1184.   10.1007/s00382-015-2638-6   AbstractWebsite

The objective of this paper is to review statistical methods, dynamics, modeling efforts, and trends related to temperature extremes, with a focus upon extreme events of short duration that affect parts of North America. These events are associated with large scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs). The statistics, dynamics, and modeling sections of this paper are written to be autonomous and so can be read separately. Methods to define extreme events statistics and to identify and connect LSMPs to extreme temperature events are presented. Recent advances in statistical techniques connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures through appropriately defined covariates that supplement more straightforward analyses. Various LSMPs, ranging from synoptic to planetary scale structures, are associated with extreme temperature events. Current knowledge about the synoptics and the dynamical mechanisms leading to the associated LSMPs is incomplete. Systematic studies of: the physics of LSMP life cycles, comprehensive model assessment of LSMP-extreme temperature event linkages, and LSMP properties are needed. Generally, climate models capture observed properties of heat waves and cold air outbreaks with some fidelity. However they overestimate warm wave frequency and underestimate cold air outbreak frequency, and underestimate the collective influence of low-frequency modes on temperature extremes. Modeling studies have identified the impact of large-scale circulation anomalies and land-atmosphere interactions on changes in extreme temperatures. However, few studies have examined changes in LSMPs to more specifically understand the role of LSMPs on past and future extreme temperature changes. Even though LSMPs are resolvable by global and regional climate models, they are not necessarily well simulated. The paper concludes with unresolved issues and research questions.

Clemesha, RES, Gershunov A, Iacobellis SF, Williams AP, Cayan DR.  2016.  The northward march of summer low cloudiness along the California coast. Geophysical Research Letters. 43:1287-1295.   10.1002/2015gl067081   AbstractWebsite

A new satellite-derived low cloud retrieval reveals rich spatial texture and coherent space-time propagation in summertime California coastal low cloudiness (CLC). Throughout the region, CLC is greatest during May-September but has considerable monthly variability within this summer season. On average, June is cloudiest along the coast of southern California and northern Baja, Mexico, while July is cloudiest along northern California's coast. Over the course of the summer, the core of peak CLC migrates northward along coastal California, reaching its northernmost extent in late July/early August, then recedes while weakening. The timing and movement of the CLC climatological structure is related to the summer evolution of lower tropospheric stability and both its component parts, sea surface temperature and potential temperature at 700hPa. The roughly coincident seasonal timing of peak CLC with peak summertime temperatures translates into the strongest heat-modulating capacity of CLC along California's north coast.

Guirguis, K, Gershunov A, Cayan DR.  2015.  Interannual variability in associations between seasonal climate, weather, and extremes: wintertime temperature over the Southwestern United States. Environmental Research Letters. 10   10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/124023   AbstractWebsite

Temperature variability in the Southwest US is investigated using skew-normal probability distribution functions (SN PDFs) fitted to observed wintertime daily maximum temperature records. These PDFs vary significantly between years, with important geographical differences in the relationship between the central tendency and tails, revealing differing linkages between weather and climate. The warmest and coldest extremes do not necessarily follow the distribution center. In some regions one tail of the distribution shows more variability than does the other. For example, in California the cold tail is more variable while the warm tail remains relatively stable, so warm years are associated with fewer cold extremes but not necessarily more warm extremes. The opposite relationship is seen in the Great Plains. Changes in temperature PDFs are conditioned by different phases of El Nino-La Nina (ENSO) and the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). In the Southern Great Plains, La Nina and/or negative PDO are associated with generally warmer conditions. However, in terms of extremes, while the warm tails become thicker and longer, the cool tails are not impacted-extremely warm days become more frequent but extremely cool days are not less frequent. In contrast, in coastal California, La Nina or negative PDO bring generally cooler conditions with more/stronger cold extremes but the warm extreme probability is not significantly affected. These results could have implications for global warming. If a rigid shift of the whole range occurs, then warm years are not necessarily a good analogue for a warmer climate. If global warming instead brings regional changes more aligned with a preferred state of dominant climate variability modes, then we may see asymmetric changes in the tails of local temperature PDFs.

Lavers, DA, Ralph FM, Waliser DE, Gershunov A, Dettinger MD.  2015.  Climate change intensification of horizontal water vapor transport in CMIP5. Geophysical Research Letters. 42:5617-5625.   10.1002/2015gl064672   AbstractWebsite

Global warming of the Earth's atmosphere is hypothesized to lead to an intensification of the global water cycle. To determine associated hydrological changes, most previous research has used precipitation. This study, however, investigates projected changes to global atmospheric water vapor transport (integrated vapor transport (IVT)), the key link between water source and sink regions. Using 22 global circulation models from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, we evaluate, globally, the mean, standard deviation, and the 95th percentiles of IVT from the historical simulations (1979-2005) and two emissions scenarios (2073-2099). Considering the more extreme emissions, multimodel mean IVT increases by 30-40% in the North Pacific and North Atlantic storm tracks and in the equatorial Pacific Ocean trade winds. An acceleration of the high-latitude IVT is also shown. Analysis of low-altitude moisture and winds suggests that these changes are mainly due to higher atmospheric water vapor content.

Cavanaugh, NR, Gershunov A, Panorska AK, Kozubowski TJ.  2015.  The probability distribution of intense daily precipitation. Geophysical Research Letters. 42:1560-1567.   10.1002/2015gl063238   AbstractWebsite

The probability tail structure of over 22,000 weather stations globally is examined in order to identify the physically and mathematically consistent distribution type for modeling the probability of intense daily precipitation and extremes. Results indicate that when aggregating data annually, most locations are to be considered heavy tailed with statistical significance. When aggregating data by season, it becomes evident that the thickness of the probability tail is related to the variability in precipitation causing events and thus that the fundamental cause of precipitation volatility is weather diversity. These results have both theoretical and practical implications for the modeling of high-frequency climate variability worldwide.

Schwartz, RE, Gershunov A, Iacobellis SF, Cayan DR.  2014.  North American west coast summer low cloudiness: Broadscale variability associated with sea surface temperature. Geophysical Research Letters. 41:3307-3314.   10.1002/2014gl059825   AbstractWebsite

Six decades of observations at 20 coastal airports, from Alaska to southern California, reveal coherent interannual to interdecadal variation of coastal low cloudiness (CLC) from summer to summer over this broad region. The leading mode of CLC variability represents coherent variation, accounting for nearly 40% of the total CLC variance spanning 1950-2012. This leading mode and the majority of individual airports exhibit decreased low cloudiness from the earlier to the later part of the record. Exploring climatic controls on CLC, we identify North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature anomalies, largely in the form of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) as well correlated with, and evidently helping to organize, the coherent patterns of summer coastal cloud variability. Links from the PDO to summer CLC appear a few months in advance of the summer. These associations hold up consistently in interannual and interdecadal frequencies.

Polade, SD, Pierce DW, Cayan DR, Gershunov A, Dettinger MD.  2014.  The key role of dry days in changing regional climate and precipitation regimes. Scientific Reports. 4   10.1038/srep04364   AbstractWebsite

Future changes in the number of dry days per year can either reinforce or counteract projected increases in daily precipitation intensity as the climate warms. We analyze climate model projected changes in the number of dry days using 28 coupled global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, version 5 (CMIP5). We find that the Mediterranean Sea region, parts of Central and South America, and western Indonesia could experience up to 30 more dry days per year by the end of this century. We illustrate how changes in the number of dry days and the precipitation intensity on precipitating days combine to produce changes in annual precipitation, and show that over much of the subtropics the change in number of dry days dominates the annual changes in precipitation and accounts for a large part of the change in interannual precipitation variability.

Guirguis, K, Gershunov A, Tardy A, Basu R.  2014.  The impact of recent heat waves on human health in California. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. 53:3-19.   10.1175/jamc-d-13-0130.1   AbstractWebsite

This study examines the health impacts of recent heat waves statewide and for six subregions of California: the north and south coasts, the Central Valley, the Mojave Desert, southern deserts, and northern forests. By using canonical correlation analysis applied to daily maximum temperatures and morbidity data in the form of unscheduled hospitalizations from 1999 to 2009, 19 heat waves spanning 3-15 days in duration that had a significant impact on health were identified. On average, hospital admissions were found to increase by 7% on the peak heat-wave day, with a significant impact seen for several disease categories, including cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, dehydration, acute renal failure, heat illness, and mental health. Statewide, there were 11 000 excess hospitalizations that were due to extreme heat over the period, yet the majority of impactful events were not accompanied by a heat advisory or warning from the National Weather Service. On a regional basis, the strongest health impacts are seen in the Central Valley and the north and south coasts. The north coast contributes disproportionately to the statewide health impact during heat waves, with a 10.5% increase in daily morbidity at heat-wave peak as compared with 8.1% for the Central Valley and 5.6% for the south coast. The temperature threshold at which an impact is seen varies by subregion and timing within the season. These results suggest that heat-warning criteria should consider local percentile thresholds to account for acclimation to local climatological conditions as well as the seasonal timing of a forecast heat wave.

Rodo, X, Pascual M, Doblas-Reyes FJ, Gershunov A, Stone DA, Giorgi F, Hudson PJ, Kinter J, Rodriguez-Arias MA, Stenseth NC, Alonso D, Garcia-Serrano J, Dobson AP.  2013.  Climate change and infectious diseases: Can we meet the needs for better prediction? Climatic Change. 118:625-640.   10.1007/s10584-013-0744-1   AbstractWebsite

The next generation of climate-driven, disease prediction models will most likely require a mechanistically based, dynamical framework that parameterizes key processes at a variety of locations. Over the next two decades, consensus climate predictions make it possible to produce forecasts for a number of important infectious diseases that are largely independent of the uncertainty of longer-term emissions scenarios. In particular, the role of climate in the modulation of seasonal disease transmission needs to be unravelled from the complex dynamics resulting from the interaction of transmission with herd immunity and intervention measures that depend upon previous burdens of infection. Progress is also needed to solve the mismatch between climate projections and disease projections at the scale of public health interventions. In the time horizon of seasons to years, early warning systems should benefit from current developments on multi-model ensemble climate prediction systems, particularly in areas where high skill levels of climate models coincide with regions where large epidemics take place. A better understanding of the role of climate extremes on infectious diseases is urgently needed.

Polade, SD, Gershunov A, Cayan DR, Dettinger MD, Pierce DW.  2013.  Natural climate variability and teleconnections to precipitation over the Pacific-North American region in CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. Geophysical Research Letters. 40:2296-2301.   10.1002/grl.50491   AbstractWebsite

Natural climate variability will continue to be an important aspect of future regional climate even in the midst of long-term secular changes. Consequently, the ability of climate models to simulate major natural modes of variability and their teleconnections provides important context for the interpretation and use of climate change projections. Comparisons reported here indicate that the CMIP5 generation of global climate models shows significant improvements in simulations of key Pacific climate mode and their teleconnections to North America compared to earlier CMIP3 simulations. The performance of 14 models with simulations in both the CMIP3 and CMIP5 archives are assessed using singular value decomposition analysis of simulated and observed winter Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and concurrent precipitation over the contiguous United States and northwestern Mexico. Most of the models reproduce basic features of the key natural mode and their teleconnections, albeit with notable regional deviations from observations in both SST and precipitation. Increasing horizontal resolution in the CMIP5 simulations is an important, but not a necessary, factor in the improvement from CMIP3 to CMIP5.

Gershunov, A, Guirguis K.  2012.  California heat waves in the present and future. Geophysical Research Letters. 39   10.1029/2012gl052979   AbstractWebsite

Current and projected heat waves are examined over California and its sub-regions in observations and downscaled global climate model (GCM) simulations. California heat wave activity falls into two distinct types: (1) typically dry daytime heat waves and (2) humid nighttime-accentuated events (Type I and Type II, respectively). The four GCMs considered project Type II heat waves to intensify more with climate change than the historically characteristic Type I events, although both types are projected to increase. This trend is already clearly observed and simulated to various degrees over all sub-regions of California. Part of the intensification in heat wave activity is due directly to mean warming. However, when one considers non-stationarity in daily temperature variance, desert heat waves are expected to become progressively and relatively less intense while coastal heat waves are projected to intensify even relative to the background warming. This result generally holds for both types of heat waves across models. Given the high coastal population density and low acclimatization to heat, especially humid heat, this trend bodes ill for coastal communities, jeopardizing public health and stressing energy resources. Citation: Gershunov, A., and K. Guirguis (2012), California heat waves in the present and future, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L18710, doi:10.1029/2012GL052979.

Semenza, JC, Caplan JS, Buescher G, Das T, Brinks MV, Gershunov A.  2012.  Climate change and microbiological water quality at California beaches. Ecohealth. 9:293-297.   10.1007/s10393-012-0779-1   AbstractWebsite

Daily microbiological water quality and precipitation data spanning 6 years were collected from monitoring stations at southern California beaches. Daily precipitation projected for the twenty-first century was derived from downscaled CNRM CM3 global climate model. A time series model of Enterococcus concentrations that was driven by precipitation, matched the general trend of empirical water quality data; there was a positive association between precipitation and microbiological water contamination (P < 0.001). Future projections of precipitation result in a decrease in predicted Enterococcus levels through the majority of the twenty-first century. Nevertheless, variability of storminess due to climate change calls for innovative adaptation and surveillance strategies.

Macias, D, Landry MR, Gershunov A, Miller AJ, Franks PJS.  2012.  Climatic control of upwelling variability along the western North American coast. Plos One. 7   10.1371/journal.pone.0030436   AbstractWebsite

The high biological production of the California Current System (CCS) results from the seasonal development of equatorward alongshore winds that drive coastal upwelling. While several climatic fluctuation patterns influence the dynamics and biological productivity of the CCS, including the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation index (PDO) and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), the mechanisms of interaction between climatic oscillations and the CCS upwelling dynamics have remained obscure. Here, we use Singular Spectral Analysis (SSA) to reveal, for the first time, low-frequency concordance between the time series of climatic indices and upwelling intensity along the coast of western North America. Based on energy distributions in annual, semiannual and low-frequency signals, we can divide the coast into three distinct regions. While the annual upwelling signal dominates the energy spectrum elsewhere, low-frequency variability is maximal in the regions south of 33 degrees N. Non-structured variability associated with storms and turbulent mixing is enhanced at northerly locations. We found that the low-frequency signal is significantly correlated with different climatic indices such as PDO, NPGO and ENSO with the correlation patterns being latitude-dependent. We also analyzed the correlations between this upwelling variability and sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level pressure (SLP) throughout the North Pacific to visualize and interpret the large-scale teleconnection dynamics in the atmosphere that drive the low-frequency coastal winds. These results provide new insights into the underlying mechanisms connecting climatic patterns with upwelling dynamics, which could enhance our prediction and forecast capabilities of the effects of future oceanographic and climatic variability in the CCS.

Guirguis, K, Gershunov A, Schwartz R, Bennett S.  2011.  Recent warm and cold daily winter temperature extremes in the Northern Hemisphere. Geophysical Research Letters. 38   10.1029/2011gl048762   AbstractWebsite

The winters of 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 brought frigid temperatures to parts of Europe, Russia, and the U. S. We analyzed regional and Northern Hemispheric (NH) daily temperature extremes for these two consecutive winters in the historical context of the past 63 years. While some parts clearly experienced very cold temperatures, the NH was not anomalously cold. Extreme warm events were much more prevalent in both magnitude and spatial extent. Importantly, the persistent negative state of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) explained the bulk of the observed cold anomalies, however the warm extremes were anomalous even accounting for the NAO and also considering the states of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). These winters' widespread and intense warm extremes together with a continuing hemispheric decline in cold snap activity was a pattern fully consistent with a continuation of the warming trend observed in recent decades. Citation: Guirguis, K., A. Gershunov, R. Schwartz, and S. Bennett (2011), Recent warm and cold daily winter temperature extremes in the Northern Hemisphere, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L17701, doi:10.1029/2011GL048762.

Ari, TB, Gershunov A, Tristan R, Cazelles B, Gage K, Stenseth NC.  2010.  Interannual variability of human plague occurrence in the western United States explained by tropical and North Pacific Ocean climate variability. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. 83:624-632.   10.4269/ajtmh.2010.09-0775   AbstractWebsite

Plague is a vector-borne, highly virulent zoonotic disease caused by the bacterium Yersima pesos It persists in nature through transmission between its hosts (wild rodents) and vectors (fleas). During epizootics, the disease expands and spills over to other host species such as humans living in or close to affected areas Here, we investigate the effect of large-scale climate variability on the dynamics of human plague in the western United States using a 56-year time series of plague reports (1950-2005). We found that El Nino Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation in combination affect the dynamics of human plague over the western United States. The underlying mechanism could involve changes in precipitation and temperatures that impact both hosts and vectors It is suggested that snow also may play a key role, possibly through its effects on summer soil moisture, which is known to be instrumental for flea survival and development and sustained growth of vegetation for rodents

OrtizBevia, MJ, Perez-Gonzalez I, Alvarez-Garcia FJ, Gershunov A.  2010.  Nonlinear estimation of El Nino impact on the North Atlantic winter. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres. 115   10.1029/2009jd013387   AbstractWebsite

The differences in the teleconnections forced by different El Nino events (Ninos) can be partly explained by the intrinsic nonlinearity of the atmospheric response. In the present study, we segregate the responses of the North Atlantic to strong from those to moderate Ninos and compare nonlinear and linear estimates. El Nino forcing is represented by the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies, and the North Atlantic atmospheric response is represented by sea level pressure anomalies in the region. To gain insight into the evolution of El Nino teleconnections in a future climate, linear and nonlinear analyses are carried out on the corresponding data fields in the control and scenario simulations of a climate model experiment. This experiment presents, in its control version, realistic teleconnections. In the observational analysis, the nonlinear method performs only slightly better than the linear one. However, in the analysis of the interannual variability by a long control experiment of a realistic climate simulation, the nonlinear estimate improves significantly with respect to the linear one. The analysis of the corresponding scenario experiment points to an intensification of the (negative) surface pressure anomalies associated with the Ninos in the west European sector in a future climate. This feature is related to the important stratospheric anomalies in the same region, revealed by previous studies.

Cayan, DR, Das T, Pierce DW, Barnett TP, Tyree M, Gershunov A.  2010.  Future dryness in the southwest US and the hydrology of the early 21st century drought. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 107:21271-21276.   10.1073/pnas.0912391107   AbstractWebsite

Recently the Southwest has experienced a spate of dryness, which presents a challenge to the sustainability of current water use by human and natural systems in the region. In the Colorado River Basin, the early 21st century drought has been the most extreme in over a century of Colorado River flows, and might occur in any given century with probability of only 60%. However, hydrological model runs from downscaled Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment climate change simulations suggest that the region is likely to become drier and experience more severe droughts than this. In the latter half of the 21st century the models produced considerably greater drought activity, particularly in the Colorado River Basin, as judged from soil moisture anomalies and other hydrological measures. As in the historical record, most of the simulated extreme droughts build up and persist over many years. Durations of depleted soil moisture over the historical record ranged from 4 to 10 years, but in the 21st century simulations, some of the dry events persisted for 12 years or more. Summers during the observed early 21st century drought were remarkably warm, a feature also evident in many simulated droughts of the 21st century. These severe future droughts are aggravated by enhanced, globally warmed temperatures that reduce spring snowpack and late spring and summer soil moisture. As the climate continues to warm and soil moisture deficits accumulate beyond historical levels, the model simulations suggest that sustaining water supplies in parts of the Southwest will be a challenge.